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Given the recent management changes, some reassurances are in order regarding Tesla Motors’ future plans. The near term message is simple and unequivocal - we are going to deliver a great sports car next year that customers will love driving.
To give you some sense of our level of confidence, a few weeks ago we allowed the major auto magazines to test drive the Tesla Roadster, and the cars performed without a hitch. In early February, you should see the results of those third party test drives on the news stands and on the web. I think results will be exciting.
Our goal is to begin full series production of the Roadster in Spring of 2008, albeit with a few components, such as the transmission, that will need to be upgraded at a later date. The transmissions in these early cars will be reliable and safe, though they will not yet meet the original performance spec for acceleration. The upgrade that we will provide at a later date will be free of charge to our existing customers.
Prior to beginning series production, our intent is to build production cars in limited quantity throughout the first half of 2008. This will allow us to exercise our manufacturing, supply chsain and customer service capabilities before we enter full production. My car, production VIN 1, is already off the production line in the UK and final preparations are being made for importation.
Tesla is also hard at work on model 2, the mid-size luxury sports sedan, which will be unveiled in the first half of next year. While the Roadster will be produced in quantities of one to two thousand per year, we are targeting over 10,000 units per year for the sedan and a price substantially lower than that of the Roadster. Looking at the longer term, Model 3 will be even lower cost and aim for an order of magnitude greater volume than model 2.
The overarching Tesla Motors goal remains unchanged from the day that I first funded Tesla (see the Secret Tesla Master Plan), which is to do everything possible to increase the number of electric miles driven. This is why Tesla is in discussions with several major car companies about providing them with a full electric drivetrain, which includes the battery, power electronics, motor, system management software, and even (groan) the transmission.
As was alluded to in the customer town hall meeting last week, Tesla will likely provide both pure electric and range extended electric drive options in the future. We refer to the latter as a REEV (Range Extended Electric Vehicle) to distinguish it from “hybrids,” which are really just gasoline engine cars with a small electric motor and tiny battery. The REEV battery in our scenario would fully cover the range needs for reasonable daily usage, but there would be an onboard generator for the occasional long trip.
On a personal note, it is perhaps worth mentioning that the very reason I originally came out to California was to do graduate studies at Stanford on high energy density capacitors for use in electric vehicles. If the Internet hadn’t come along, that’s what I would have done, so my interest in electric cars is no passing fancy. Today I am even more committed to realizing a future where electric drive is the norm and not the exception.
Tesla needs to be profitable to be viable and grow, but this is about much more than making money. The electric vehicle revolution is critically important to the world and is way overdue. Tesla Motors, with the help of its customers and investors, is going to lead the way in making it happen.







Thanks for your words of encouraging enthusiasm.
A question: Since I would prefer to wait for the 2-speed final transmission, at what production sequence number would the 2-speed be fitted as normal production?
My build slot is #351.
Cheers,
Mike
Elon wrote: “…there would be an onboard generator for the occasional long trip.”
Really?
What would Martin do?
So…. is the RE-EV thing planned for Model 2 (WhiteStar) or Model 3?
I’m a little torn about the onboard generator idea. I like the unlimited range feature, but I’m concerned about the efficiency loss from the extra weight and space when I’m driving on electric for 95% of my needs…
…I should add I’m also worried about the maintenance challenges when the range extender goes unused for months at a time…
Thanks, Elon, for the reassurances that you continue on a similar path with unabated determination.
# Elon wrote:
## Tesla will likely provide both pure electric and range extended electric drive options in the future.
## We refer to the latter as a REEV (Range Extended Electric Vehicle) to distinguish it from “hybrids,”
## which are really just gasoline engine cars with a small electric motor and tiny battery.
As bloggers and others have said previously, this particular change in direction does seem to be a slight detour from what we had expected.
We look forward to hearing more about what Tesla engineers have in mind. We had expected 100% electric (no fuel tank) vehicles from Tesla, so if that has changed there will likely be a flurry of critique from those of us watching with interest from the sidelines.
I suspect that your ability to differentiate yourself with this approach will be diminished as many other companies seem to have in mind PHEVs (of one form or another) that have bigger batteries and bigger eMotors than the plug-less “mild” hybrids we see today. The fuel-cell research projects of all the big auto makers can be converted to “REEVs” by putting in a small ICE instead of the fuel cell, so you may find a lot of REEV competition soon.
Elon,
I was glad to hear and read your intention to ship your initial vehicles with the existing transmissions to customers willing to receive a free upgrade later. Judging by the excitement in the room during the teleconference, I was not surprised that there were many customers interested in that possibility - great move.
I love your REEV approach for the future. Initially, until plug in EV’s have years of testing in the real world, I imagine customers, like myself, would be leary of driving anywhere without some sort of RE backup, in the event the battery pack goes dead unexpectedly. Can you makesure there is a RE bypass, so that, if the batteries die unexpectedly, you can run the vehicle off the RE alone?
Thanks for your dedication and conviction - Happy Holidays!
“The electric vehicle revolution is critically important to the world, and is way overdue.”
Good on ya.
I may never own an EV — by the time there are cheap used ones around, I may be too old — but I watch your blog, and eagerly anticipate the clean quiet streets of an ICE-free city.
– jh
I appreciate this update of the Master Plan.
Too, I realize there are considerable engineering differences between a “range extender” serial hybrid, with its large battery and small assist engine, and a Prius-style parallel hybrid, with its large engine and small assist battery. However, as soon as an internal combustion engine is added, the difference to me becomes more of degree than kind. I have said elsewhere, and I would repeat here, that I would probably not buy a Tesla Motors product that included an ICE. I am a conservative buyer, and I will stick with tried-and-true manufacturers of ICE cars over those built by TM, a new entrant to the field.
I believe that if TM stays true to its original mission, and produces all-battery cars, then it will sell everything it can make. If this means that TM must produce cars at “luxury” price points, then so be it. It is not TM’s mission to replace every car on the road; its mission is to stay in business. If it leaves this niche for seemingly greener pastures, it may well find itself another victim of the world’s automotive powerhouses.
“The overarching Tesla Motors goal … is to do everything possible to increase the number of electric miles driven.”
Some were questioning why Tesla would have nice things to say about the Volt, when it should be regarded as a competitor to the future models, but I think this statement explains it well.
The future is electric, and Tesla boldly leads the way, with the old, slow-to-change established car companies struggling to keep up. Tesla will keep them moving forward with encouragement, (the carrot), competitive threat, (the stick), and by suppying or partnering to develop electric drivetrains, (the helping hand).
This is it, electric cars are back, and this time to stay. I’m very happy to be a part of this new electric wave.
By the way, I finally got to drive the Roadster last weekend, and for “vaporware”, it drove very well!
Re: Same song?
I can’t agree that the “Song remains the same”. The original words have been changed somewhat and there’s a different “lead” singer singing a slightly different tune to the one I had been enjoying.
Call it a REEV or whatever you want but it is still an internal combustion engine which needs gasoline, and the use of words such as “likely provide” and “option” don’t exactly inspire confidence that it - the ICE - will be gone any time soon.
But who knows, maybe the newly departed singer will form another group and resume playing the “song” I enjoyed
Not exactly the “Chrstmas music” I was hoping for.
Peter J Hedge
Victoria, BC
I am glad your car is blowing up current trannys. For transmission solutions, consider zeroshift expertise. They just may have the idea you need. When I get the 2009 Corvette ZR1, I am replacing its tranny with zeroshift technology.
Keep innovating. Let go of old world views please and attack the obvious -interfaces (only 2 gears… why must I take my hands off the wheel to change gears?) and safety (even the Acura has side impact safety results that match the Volvo which indicates the playing field has changed for the better. Please keep up).
I like the long trip generator-a compact ” plug in ” one in a generator bay, that can be removed for daily driving (leaving a storage space) -which takes care of Ryan’s objection. It’s great to want to sell Tesla components to other Ev companies-which Martin agreed to as well. Funny thing about this post is that everything Elon sez is exactly what Martin was saying-so what, perchance, was the problem?-couldn’t have been the “launch/transmission” delay- look at Airbus & Boeing-it’s a new tech., what do people expect? I would have followed the original Golden Rule M.O., not the later cash- based one.That way Tesla could have avoided acting like just another U.S. investor/ investment firm -driven company as (what else is new?) usual. One day the real story will appear via the grapevine perhaps?
Thanks for the update and clarification, Elon. Although I am in the camp of “keep it pure electric” it is reasurring that you stated that pure models will always be available. I was wondering if Tesla has considered an option for the roadster, and that is premium batteries. If the ESS was assembled with 2.9 Ah batteries such as described here: panasonic.co.jp/corp/news/official.data/data.dir/en061218-2/en061218-2.html the roadster could have a range over 300 miles. I realize there would be a significant increase in cost, but some customers may consider it worthwhile.
Keep up the good work. I am sure Tesla Motors will be a great success!
Fishead post from prior blog on 10 times better Li-ion batteries- that’s a big Wow ( 10/4, roger that). Now someone has to do the same trick for PV solar-so that it becomes, like 90% efficient. When that happens, the whole package will be there. In the next few years , if this keeps up , we could turn the country around fast (particularly if govt. at all levels pumps in some cash & incentives. Right now “the pumps don’t work ’cause the vandals took the handles” )
Can someone tell me what the deal is with the range change , last week it was 245 miles per charge , now it’s back to 220 mpc. And please don’t tell me you guys are looking at a range extender for the future models , America should have buried the Ice 50 yrs ago . Nikola tesla himself had no use for one .. he built his own electric car way above his time . I undersatnd the complexity of this oil driven economy , but for heaven sakes.. Please sticks to yours guns .. please. i wanna see my kids driving a tesla off of a lot without using a single drop of oil whatsoever.
Elon’s “Song Remains the Same” fails to explain sum things. Guess the lyrics that apply to me, or M.E., iz: “look out kid, it’s somethin’ you did-God knows when but you’re doin’ it again”.
To all those with a stick up their halibuts regarding the RE,
First of all, Elon states that Tesla vehicles can be equipped with an RE OPTION, which means you don’t have to have one, if you don’t want one. Secondly, RE doesn’t necessarily mean petroleum ICE. It could be a fuel cell, a hydrogen ICE, compressed air, whatever. Thirdly, until charging stations are conveniently located throughout the world in abundance, don’t knock any customer that would like to have a gasoline or diesel ICE RE as a backup to these new battery packs. It will be years before reliability of the packs and availability of recharging stations are at a point when customers won’t be concerned about getting stranded.
As for those who rail against ICE’s in general, it was the ICE that helped the West win two World Wars and the Cold War, and project power around the world. When batteries and fuels cells become capable of economically and functionally replacing ICE’s, then great, but until then, you can thank the ICE for the great life you are living.
Congrats to providing more updated news!
Unlike some, I realize that design adaptation is key to survival. Roadster drivers have completly different useage than “regular” drivers. Truth is, there is a very limited market for a pure $50k EV at this point in time. I for one think it is a brilliant move to have a backup for the ESS. Please continue to pursue the ICE concept REEV. The very concept of being able to take a 400+ mile trip at a moments notice makes your design saleable. Folks just don’t like to feel vulnerable - and the REEV concept removes that. I think you got the right direction.
KUDOS!
Jeff
Please don’t do the range extender nonsense. Leave that to the aftermarket. Maybe a portable generator, like a Honda generator. Light enough that it could be added, or rented for longer trips.
If you add the range extender into the car stock, then we will have to deal with all those wonderful issues as California C.A.R.B. SMOG testing, etc. That would defeat the whole purpose of EV’s. If it’s aftermarket, it’s considered a portable generator and is not governed by California vehicle rules, therefore exempt from consumer SMOG testing.
Just leave a plug inside the front, or rear trunk to plug in a generator. Allow a way to charge it while the vehicle is moving. (current software doesn’t allow it) Don’t forget to add a removable cap that the consumer or aftermarket “tuning companies” could be use for exhaust routing. The aftermarket will figure out what it is and design products for it. This has been done in the computer and electronics (some automotive) industry for years.
This should keep both people happy.
As 21st century company, please design “upgradeability” into all your vehicles, so a user can upgrade features down the road when they come available, instead of having to buy a whole new car. This should keep resale values high.
I’m glad to see that Tesla continues the path of open communication with the public. I enjoyed the “town hall” podcast. Please consider holding off on an IPO as long as possible. Look to Google as a model. Typical public companies enjoy less freedoms in product development than private ones.
# Steve wrote on December 21st, 2007 at 8:36 pm
## Can someone tell me what the deal is with the range change , last week it was 245 miles per charge , now it’s back to 220 mpc
Reportedly it was a “mistake” by the firm that did the EPA range tests.
# T.J. wrote on December 21st, 2007 at 8:06 pm
## I like the long trip generator-a compact ” plug in ” one in a generator bay, that can be removed for daily driving (leaving a storage space)
It seems some are assuming it will be removable. My guess is that it won’t be removable.
# Roy wrote on December 21st, 2007 at 8:24 pm
## I am in the camp of “keep it pure electric” it is reassuring that you stated that pure models will always be available.
That could simply mean that they would continue to sell the “pure electric” Roadster alongside various “REEV” models.
I wouldn’t automatically assume that you would have a choice between BEV and REEV sedans. Elon’s statement would still be true even if they only sold REEV sedans.
I wonder what generator technology Tesla plans to use. Piston ICE? Rotary? Turbine? Sterling? Turbocharged? Supercharged?
I assume this info will remain under wraps until the related sedan model is announced.
Does Tesla have anything to say yet about their intentions for fuel choices? Would you have a “flex fuel” generator that can run on different fuels?
Will the “range extender” be gasoline? E85? Diesel? (other?)
any word on the satellite radio (in the Tesla Roadsters). it would be great if they stay “in”
Elon,
I must regard the “REEV” option as flat un-encouraging.
It takes a lot to bolster my confidence to begin with, but what with these production delays, the inability of Tesla to finalise the Roadster’s range, and now Tesla’s seeming vulnerability to the insidiousness of the ICE, I fail to see the furure greatness of Tesla when it is only moving towards the status quo of established 21st century (ICE) auto manufacturers.
My advice. Forget RE-EV. Forget it! Let it die. You’re only going to impede the development of the batteries- in fact you’ll see it as an excuse not to.
You can go a long way on 220 miles. The problem is pyschological with buyers. You tell them 220 miles and they think probably 50, what with the existing stigma of EV’s. Do you really think you’re buying them over to batteries with suggestions of “RE-EV’s”?
As I’ve said. Forget it. Let it die.
And as others have said. Stick to your guns. Have a conscience and be emotional about EV’s. Don’t make Tesla just a business, and a scrambly “please everbody” business proposition at that. Make it a principled proposition- as I think Tesla was designed to be. If you want to build RE-EV’s, I suggest you work for one of the ICE companies- they’do it like nobody else.
Sincerely,
Michael Toft
Vancouver, BC
I should add, perhaps, that I’m not a Tesla buyer at this point. Not having the necessary wealth does not prevent me from considering being a Blue Star buyer in the future.
I will however, be buying the Motor Trend, Car and Driver, as well as Road & Track containing tests of the Roadster.
RE-EV is still a bad idea, in my opinion.
Develop the batteries.
I wonder if Tesla is really working on that. Wanting to sell its drivetrains to companies like Think (not anymore of course, in that case) suggests to me that it is rather content. Altair Nano batteries may be expensive and as yet unapplied to cars in any substantial sense. but the performance claims are SO much better next to Tesla’s…
Keep working. Keep developing.
Michael Toft
Vancouver, BC
“Tesla will likely provide both pure electric and range extended electric drive options in the future”
Aww….what an important little quote from Mr. Elon’s blog post. I am VERY happy that they will be providing both options.
ALWAYS keep both options available. ALWAYS. I personally would opt for the pure EV, but if the EV is ever going to go mainstream, especially with the Volt possibly looming, REEV is going to have to be an option for Tesla to be market competitive.
I know that alot of people on this blog don’t like the idea of REEV because you guys don’t like the idea of having an engine laying around that you barely use. Why are you complaining? You don’t have to have it; just choose the pure EV instead. Yes, Tesla may be “tainted” with ICE, and won’t be “pure,” but it’s better for Tesla to be market competitive and exist than not exist at all.
Also….remember that Elon said “generator.” That’s not necessarily an ICE. It could be a fuel cell. Maybe Honda, with their refined fuel cell system, will provide fuel cell technology for Tesla to use as range extenders. Honda, afterall, is the largest maker of engines in the world, maybe they’re setting their sights on largest fuel cell maker too.
However, we all know the problems with hybdrogen, so it might not happen.
Or maybe Tesla, but more likely some aftermarket thing, will provide a genset. www.seattleeva.org/images/thumb/9/9d/Acp_tzero_DSC00467.jpg/300px-Acp_tzero_DSC00467.jpg
The genset’s wheels would be made to be steered. I personally think this is a great option.
Steve said:
“Can someone tell me what the deal is with the range change , last week it was 245 miles per charge , now it’s back to 220 mpc”
Yeah, it sucks.
The company that did the range testing for the roadster apparently did it incorrectly. So, they tested the car again, and the correct testing came up with ~220 miles per charge. That is not the official, official range number however because the testing will be redone just right before series production starts. I got this info from the little asterik next to “200 miles per charge.”
Just go for the best possible power-to-weight ratio combustion engine possible, with high efficiency, not your average piston ICE. Rotary, linear combustion, turbine, whatever. And be flexible with fuels, never, ever mention it as “gasoline” or “petrol” engine.
Natural gas, ethanol etc. etc. are all better alternatives even just from marketing perspective.
1- Get rid of the water cooled ESS by going to high-power phosphate batteries.
2- Get rid of the transmission by going to high-power phosphate batteries.
3- Get rid of the differential by going to 2 (4 preferred) in-hubs.
4- Reduce range to 100 miles to drop the cost of the battery pack
5- Reduce top speed to 162 km/h.
6- Include small displacement RE that can increase range to 250 miles @ 70 mph from full charge.
7- RE should be able to work unattended.
Thanks for posting, Elon, both here and with the town hall meeting. It’s reassuring to see that the openness of Tesla Motors continues through this exciting and trying time. That is one of the most impressive attributes of Tesla Motors, and I hope it continues. I can’t say I agree with everything that has happened there recently, but I’m not on the board and arm-chair quarterbacking in pointless.
I reviewed an old news video the other day. I can’t find it now, but it goes way back. Its the one where the reporter interviewed you at SpaceX about Tesla Motors. This time, however, I caught your comments about becoming a supplier of drivetrains to other manufacturers. I thought that was a shift in direction for Tesla, but the interview shows it was envisioned long ago.
Looking forward to seeing the design for the Whitestar - er, model 2. This is the car I’ve been anxiously awaiting. I think the distinction between a PHEV and an REEV will be entirely lost on the vast majority of consumers. In fact, parallel, serial, plug-in, range-extended, etc will evolve into terms only motor heads use; the rest of us will say “hybrid”. That will put you on the same playing field as half a dozen other cars coming to market in the next few years. So Tesla will have to distinguish yourselves differently to stay competitive.
Again, thanks for the post. Looking forward to hearing from Ze’ev.
Mark Tomlinson
If the fishead battery post pans out, range extending generator wouldn’t be needed-unless traveling almost across country in one trip. Wonder what happened with indium, gallium, nitride solar cells ? - came across info. on web from around 2002 (but nothing recent) that said solar cells made from this could tap into full spectrum of sunlight (”multijunction”) and produce efficiency of possibly up to 70%. U.S. National l Renewable Energy Lab said that within 10 years (I think , with any help, half that time or less) . both PV solar & thermal solar will match or beat fossil fuel power costs. They said that theoretically the whole country could be powered off of an area of PV solar 100 miles x 100 miles sq.- Speed up the Nanosolar printing presses.
Researchers at Stanford university claim to have increased the energy density of Lithium batteries by ten times:
news-service.stanford.edu/news/2008/january9/nanowire-010908.html
Assuming this materializes, how does it affect the roadster?
Presumably for the same battery volume you could get a range of 2500 miles. Does it mean it requires ten times as much lithium, making the battery ten times more expensive?
What other options would this allow for? Maybe small battery modules that can be swapped out?
Thanx for the update Elon!!!
Hoping to see some of these Roadsters hitting the streets soon. Hmmmm how ironic :The Song Remains the Same”….. That concert DVD was just released again. Just got it & watched it lol
A BIG question for Elon & Tesla motors is the story I posted about the breakthrough on lithium-ion batterys with nano-technology.
news-service.stanford.edu/news/2008/january9/nanowire-010908.html
Increasing the life of the battery 10 fold is a HUUUGE breakthrough!!! I am wondering if Tesla will incorporate this technology into the WhiteStar or future Roadsters???? Lets say a conservative 200 miles for the Tesla… Man increasing that to 2000 would be incredible. All this talk of range extenders & such pretty much go OUT the window lol.
LET THE ELECTRIC REVOLUTION BEGIN!!!!!
HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO TESLA & EVERYONE!!!
Just one question:
What distintcive advantage will Tesla Motors’ RE-EVs have in comparison to other REEVs from big established automakers?
When I am onto buying a RE-EV I’ll go elsewhere. To someone that knows something about ICEs and has a looooong trackrecord of building them. Not to a startup that doesn’t really know what it wants to do. It says something today and does something different tommorow. Sorry, but it is a completely different song. It’s a “me too” song.
I’d place bets on the Solar Sterling Engine from Infinia Corp for the REEV. At least I hope Tesla takes a good look at it. We reviewed it back in September.
Jason wrote: As for those who rail against ICE’s in general, it was the ICE that helped the West win two World Wars and the Cold War, and project power around the world. When batteries and fuels cells become capable of economically and functionally replacing ICE’s, then great, but until then, you can thank the ICE for the great life you are living.
Since WWll was caused by WWl and WWl was a war of oil and we are currently and continiously fighting a wars for oil, for some it’s a great life, for others, not so much.
www.globalpolicy.org/security/oil/2002/1000history.htm
Elon, rather than fund it all yourself, what about getting some help from the FreedomCAR program?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FreedomCAR
There seems to be government assistance available for Plug in Hybrid technology development right now.
Tesla was counting on their Lith battery’s yearly seven percent energy improvement and commodity price drop to increase the mileage of each successive model car. With this announcement of a Hybrid Tesla, either that is not happening fast enough or the idea of using a new brand of battery is seen as commodity-weak and not-ready-for-primetime.
Augmenting the ESS with an on-board fuel-burning device is marketing folly. Tesla should wait for batteries to come to them. Tesla should continue to put out “low (245!) range” Roadsters and “model 2″s as only BEVs until battery’s technology and price catches up to their goal of 500 miles per charge (the most someone can (or should) drive in a day).
The Federal Regulations for including an ICE in a car are astronomical compared to the “simple” EV regulations they have had to deal with to date. Rather than loose their core BEV focus why not increase sales by tweaking the Roadster for international release? This car can’t even be sold in Canada. There are counties that are screaming for the Tesla BEV where it’s actually profitable to drive the car.
Looking at a Tesla Hybrid from a non-insider view, who would buy a car with an Internal Combustion Engine and an Electric Motor and from a tiny unknown car maker (who can’t even get a simple transmission right) when General Motors is doing the same thing? By the time Tesla is ready with “model 2”, Toyota, Renault, Volvo, Honda, VW, Mitsubishi and others will have Volt-like prototypes backed with their advertising dynamos saturating the autosphere.
Tesla has zero Advertising budget. Everything you have ever seen or heard about the Roadster to this point has been free marketing with magazine covers, big spreads, news stories and a viral Internet explosion of publicity. All of this is free press is because they are an original American concept. By making a Hybrid (with a new acronym) and competing with established automobile manufacturers, Tesla will loose its Unique Selling Proposition (USP) of no compromise, battery powered vehicles. A squeaky message of a Hybrid me-too will get lost in a cacophonistic din made by companies whose ad budgets alone could buy Tesla Motors.
If Tesla wants to offer a Long Range solution for a few years then go with aftermarket answers like these:
upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi…o_DSC00467.jpg
evnut.com/images/rav4/rav_lon…ngranger01.jpg
evnut.com/images/rav4/rav_lon…ngranger03.jpg
evnut.com/images/rav4/rav_lon…ngranger02.jpg
Dear Mr Musk
At present Tesla is the only car company capable of pushing BEV technology, but I believe that in rescheduling your break-even point you will have to sacrifice too much of your technological lead.
Big Auto is not interested in pushing the envelope. They like the bare minimum. Indeed, it is in their interest to suck Tesla Motors into developing a marginally innovative PHEV-friendly drivetrain (in return for a large sum). In the present legislative climate, 50 mpg would be far too radical in their books.
Yes, Tesla would become profitable sooner - and given your personal stake in the company, I can understand the attraction. And with 50 mpg (or a similar figure) you could continue to claim a valuable contribution to pioneering automotive work in the US.
But I would urge you to aim higher, through events such as the Automotive X Prize and through deals with cars makers who are prepared to focus on BEVs such as Pininfarina:-
www.pininfarina.com/index/press/cosCorp.html?index.php&p=562
You wrote “The electric vehicle revolution is critically important to the world and is way overdue. Tesla Motors, with the help of its customers and investors, is going to lead the way in making it happen”
Good. But please remember that Big Auto is not interested in your revolution and will do all they can to turn Tesla into one of the great PHEV component suppliers of the 21st century.
If Tesla does not continue to develop cutting edge systems for BEVs, who will?
Malcolm Wilson
Mike,
I think that you are missing the point of an EV, if you want 3rd party RE’s that dodge CARB smog test requirements. I now understand why so many are lobbying against the RE’s - just as the CEO of Toyota is intentionally badmouthing GM’s Chevy Volt, while working on their own similar solutions, individuals on this message board are trying to steer Tesla from developing a product that they are directly or indirectly promoting for various 3rd parties. Congrats on stooping to an Asian diversionary tactic - fortunately, Tesla’s CURRENT leadership has more vision than you can obscure.
Scientists have devised a way to make lithium-ion battery anodes out of silicon instead of carbon, using silicon nano-wires. With this approach, they are able to store 10 times the energy in a typical lithium ion battery than they otherwise would be able to store.
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/12/071219103105.htm
When will you be shipping Tesla Roadsters that get 2200 miles per charge?
Richard,
I suspect that car companies will eventually utilize this Si wire lithium ion batteries to achieve a “good enough” range of 400 - 500 miles, and instead push to reduce battery pack size, weight and cost.
Have to agree with WarpedOne, vfx and Malcolm Wilson. While Tesla had a chance of being the leading EV manufacturer in the world it has no chance of competing with GM, Toyota et al in producing Range Extended EVs. I’m sure there are very good reasons for taking that route but it just defies logic to think that anyone will remain interested in your company if you’re doing the same as Big Auto. What track record does Tesla have in body design, suspension, noise vibration and harshness etc etc etc, and all that other stuff that car manufacturers have been doing for years? While you were making something that regular manufacturers refused to make we could forgive you your inexperience but now why should we? Anybody with a little money can buy expertise from Lotus and other automotive consultancy companies. Where is your USP when you are building your REEVs? I’d buy a Honda if I wanted one of those…..or a Volvo……or a Volt. Makes me wonder….was this Martin’s sin….he couldn’t agree with your strategy?
How ironic that a major Li-Ion battery breakthrough is announced just a Tesla makes it (more or less) official that they plan to pursue “range extending generators” in lieu of waiting for batteries to improve.
# Elon wrote: “Tesla will likely provide both pure electric and range extended electric drive options in the future”
# Joseph wrote on December 21st, 2007 at 11:52 pm
## what an important little quote from Mr. Elon’s blog post. I am VERY happy that they will be providing both options.
## ALWAYS keep both options available. ALWAYS. I personally would opt for the pure EV…
## I know that alot of people on this blog don’t like the idea of REEV because you guys don’t like the idea of having an engine laying around that you barely use.
## Why are you complaining? You don’t have to have it; just choose the pure EV instead.
If Tesla offered BEV and “REEV” versions of all products that would be one story, but what if their BEV solution is the Roadster, and everything else is REEV only?
Is Tesla really big enough (yet) to be engineering two different drive-train solutions for all of their upcoming products?
I agree with other blogger responses on this forum that Tesla puts themselves at risk of getting sucked into “big auto” view of REEVs.
The view seems to be that they are an indefinite source of research grant money, and not actually something meant to be put into real production.
Taxpayers have been paying for fuel-cell REEV research for years and years, yet I can’t go out and buy one.
Considering that Tesla is at least 2 years ahead of major automakers at fielding a production electric vehicle, I am not worried about Tesla’s ability to compete. Offering an RE option is good business, until those Si wire lithium batteries become an economical option. By that time, all automakers will have access to those batteries, and most all automakers will coalesce around a common configuration.
Once the energy powering these EV’s becomes clean, abundant and cheap, we will see a styling explosion - just look at the vehicle that Fisker is proposing. These cars will meet all emissions standards, and can put less emphasis on aerodynamics, and more on curb appeal.
Re: Broken promise
The new model Tesla’s with the option of an ICE, REEV will undoubtedly be way better and more environmentally friendly than the existing hybrid or pure gasoline or diesel engine powered vehicle. However it is not what those of us who have been following this site since the beginning were originally “promised”. “100% electric,” we were told. “To hell with oil!
That’s what made Tesla Motors “different” and – for me- is/was the prime reason for following its progress on line.
Well apparently that isn’t going to be the case any more and that’s what sticks in my craw
I’m sure Tesla Motors can economically justify its change in heart and I wish them well. However I cannot help but feel “let down” that now, like most ordinary car companies, they will continue spending much of their time and energy (no pun intended) “researching/developing” ICE’s, regardless of whether or not the customer opts for the REEV.
And as for the recent comment that the ICE helped win WWII, I see to remember reading that “Atomic power” played a pretty important role too.
Peter J Hedge
Victoria, BC
The inventors says that the 10 times improvement to Lithium batteries using silicon wires will take 5 years to bring to market:
www.gm-volt.com/2007/12/21/gm-voltcom-interview-with-dr-cui-inventor-of-silicon-nanowire-lithium-ion-battery-breakthrough
Andrew Kelsey wrote on December 22nd, 2007 at 12:30 pm
” Makes me wonder….was this Martin’s sin….he couldn’t agree with your strategy?”
I posted words to this effect several weeks ago and - even though we may never know for certain - still stand by them.
But to the current managment of Tesla’s credit . . . his “open communication concept” still remains. . . otherwise many of the recent highly critical postings/comments would not get posted.
That is greatly appreciated.
Peter J Hedge
Victoria, BC
I find it interesting that Elon failed to thank Martin for his services in this blog. If I am not mistaken, Elon would not be the Chairman of the Board of Tesla without Martin, his ideas, and his drive. I think that Elon’s and the other board member’s lack of acknowledgement of Martin and his abilities lacks class. The entire board and all of the employees should be grateful. However, they do not seem to be.
Peter J Hedge,
I suspect that Tesla will merely procure what ever RE they choose - fuel cell, ICE, whatever, and only spend money integrating it / them into their power / control systems, so I don’t expect a large effort there.
The atomic bomb ended the war with Japan, and it was the only enemy against whom it was ever used. Atomic weapons were not used in WWI, the European theater of WWII, or the Cold War. Nuclear power is now only used in the most strategically important submarines and aircraft carriers, while petroleum still powers nearly all other air, water and land craft.
The Tesla Motor car is the first car that has ever impressed me. Producing automobiles is a very dicey high capital game and making the process simpler by using a chassis from another maker was a good idea. This car is a little bit out of my, and most others range, but the concept of the EV can be carried further. I must admit my taste in cars starts from the inside, whats under the hood, unlike most people who just want to ride something shiny to be replaced every 2-3 years.
My preference would be for something simpler, low-tech is not evil. Properly built, an EV could last a very long time, like DC-3’s and electric subway cars.
Every 3 months we can expect to see some new battery technology that will make the previous one look silly. Safety is very important to me and the Li ion Cobalt technology uses organic solvents with very low boiling and flash-point that make me nervous.
(The whole UN Lithium battery Transport regulation deal is based on a “misunderstanding” of what makes a Lithium battery go BOOM. The regulation for transport of hazardous materials for lithium batteries are currently only applied to the *Lithium* element, the flammable part is ignored. Crush a lithium cell and the heat from the short circuit will likely ignite the solvent, or “electrolyte”, and once this has started everything else with burn too. Lithium Cobalt cells have no free metallic Lithium, the lithium is only contained as a salt, yet the battery falls under Lithium regulations, not Flammables. )
Before long we will see Li iron phosphate technology that will obsolete the Cobalt cells. The elements in LiFePO4-cells should be very cheap and abundant. Cobalt price is a bit high and volatile. www.metalprices.com/metalNews.asp?id=57988&svc=RN&type=1
I saw the movie “who killed the electric car” and it seems obvious the Club of Billionaires who control the oil supply, and most other things, are not interested in people not stopping in at the gas station once a week or becoming energy independent. The $1/W (lasting 25 years) printed solar cells decorating our rooftops could make the Utility and Energy Barons very nervous. Imagine no electric-bill, no gas-stations, cars that last 20+ years and hold their value, meaning a higher standard of living and less or no pollution.
The very efficient, powerful and simple 3-phase electric motor is a very mature technology, batteries are newish, and may be encumbered by patents. Hydrogen fuel cells is another lame idea feeding the tapeworm economy. Too high tech and too many patents, leave this stuff for the Space cadets. 3-phase motor controllers have been around for quite a while, should be hard to get a monopoly here.
Using 3-phase motors changes the paradigm for driving a high performance car, no gear-shifter (please), no arr-arr-arr noise, no minimum rpm. What will the pit-crew in the EV-race chat about? Better switching devices for the controller? Silver-wire for stator? I think I like to see that.
The range extender ICU could be towed, in worst cases, or be small enough to fit in the trunk. Bio-Diesel or Alcohol could be used to keep it green.
This option is just there to explode the myth that every car must be a long range traveler. Families have several cars, cars can be rented for the once a year trip to Uncle Fester, and most miles are burned in urban settings commuting to work. The range of the GM EV-1 was evidently not a problem.
TM needs to get to market ASAP and changes to details in batteries and Auxiliary Power Units can be made on the fly.
I suppose a century ago many horse riders were thinking: I can ride my horse 30 miles every day (my guess for a horse range on a several days journey) in any direction were I can find grass and and fresh water (range extenders)… I don’t need a “halibut” noisy vehicle… besides, were the “halibut” am I going to find diesel or whatever is needed to keep that crazy vehicle running? “.
I admire Tesla motors because they are trying and achieving what most of the people (including the big boys from the auto industry) considered impossible.
Current problems (such the transmission, delivery date, the range, EV purity, etc.) will become vapor ware, technoogy will improve sooner or later (critics will remain criticizing anything).
Maybe some day I will be boasting with my grandchildren (during middle time of Super Bowl LXX) about the times when I was a blogger in the website of the company that lead the change in transportation from oil to electricity. Then someone may whisper: “told you not to ask grandpa about history homework”
Regards
Elon-
I would love to discuss a way to conservatively more than triple your miles per charge… with much less weight.
Our technology is simple - use low-grade heat to create energy. All the heat generated from your batteries can be converted back into electricity, which could perpetually keep the batteries charged, as well as power all other systems within the vehicle. In the past, this conversion of heat energy was very inefficient (2-5%), which made it impractical to use a thermoelectric converter. With our proprietary technology, this efficiency has been exponentially increased as most of the heat is converted into electricity. There are still energy loses, but it is minimal compared to all previous technological applications involving thermoelectric couplers. We could increase the miles per charge in your vehicles at least three times with very little modification to your current design. Again, the space required for our technology is minimal… and would add very little weight to the vehicle.
Our technology consists of proprietary materials, proprietary configurations of these materials, proprietary electronic circuits, and the basic proprietary method and process for making the converter work. Best of all, our technology works! It can be manufactured at a fairly low cost for nearly all applications and is based on a design that can be readily understood with accepted physical principals.
From a business perspective, we have an excellent proprietary position that is uncontaminated with prior associations and claims from other entities. Patent applications have already been filed in regards to the concept and implementation of the technology, as well as the proprietary methods (chemical in nature) of the materials used.
We also have ultracapacitor technology that is superior to all on the market today, which patent applications have been filed for as well. In conjunction with our energy technology, we can dramatically improve your vehicles in short order and with very little modification.
Who we are:
Zahara Ventures LLC, a corporation founded by David Carver, Ph.D. and Mike Strom, an investor. David is a world-renowned chemist with a strong background in multiple other scientific fields. David has had many notable accomplishments prior to the Zahara partnership, including consideration as the ‘father of Taxol’, a worldwide leading cancer fighting medication (Google search ‘David Carver Taxol’ to find out more). Additionally, David has developed the single largest selling designs of ultraviolet (UV) detectors currently in use worldwide. These accomplishments (along with many others) have served as a foundation in our revolutionary green energy technology.
If you would like additional details or to set up a meeting, please email me at [Contact details deleted]
We look forward to hearing from you!
Mike Strom
Zahara Ventures, LLC
This is why I appreciate the dialog between TM and its followers. People are passionate and willing to help/hurt the company. The strength of transparency sits right next to the weakness.
Mike Strom, even if you could convert all of the heat generated by lithium ion batteries into electricity, it would never be enough to keep the batteries “perpetually charged.” You see, lithium ion batteries store energy, and when they are discharged in a Tesla Roadster, some of that energy is converted into heat while the majority of it (99.9%), is transfered through the electrical system to the motor and eventually to the wheels. There are obviously some losses along the way, in the form of heat, but the majority of the energy goes into the car’s motion, which is then lost to air resistance. There is no way to get that energy back and there is no simple way to capture that energy. Assuming you could capture all of the losses and that 72% of the energy makes it to the drive train, the theoretical maximum that the Tesla Roadster’s range would be increased would be 86 miles.
If you really are a legitimate investor as you claim, I suggest that you try to get your money back ASAP. You are being conned by a scam artist if you are not the scam artist or part of a group of scam artists.
Please, solicitation for perpetual motion machines in this forum is uncool, most of us are technically savvy. Back to the important topic at hand. Thank you Elon for writing this blog. A lot of us were wondering which direction TM is heading. To us die hards and purists, I think REEV is a deviation from the original Martin’s vision. I do believe this was probably the contention point that forced Martin out. So now we have ELECTRIC MILES instead of ELECTRIC CARS. But I supposed that it is easier to sell a REEV to the public than it is to sell a pure BEV with limited range and long recharge times. Unfortunately, the Si Nanowire battery news did not break before Martin left. It would have given the BEV a much better chance to remain viable and philosophically pure if it is ever implemented. Wow, 10x the energy density and fast charge times… 2000 to 2450 mile on a single charge with less than a 30 min charge time and less than 4secs to 60mph, who can argue with that. But in order for TM to remain financially viable during this important transition period, REEV does make sense. It will be much easier to market model 2 and model 3 for the public without the handicap of limited range and long charge times. My only contention is the RE. It needs to be fully automatic and portable, and it should be able to run on any combination of ethanol, methanol, biodiesel, or as a last resort, gasoline. As Martin once said, any hybrid is nothing more than a increased efficientcy ICE car. So please to the power that be at TM, don’t be seduced by the dark side too much. The reason we are fasicinated by TM is because it can lead us to oil independence and pollution free.
Thanks to Elon Musk for keeping the postings coming from the “top of the food chain.”
As much as I personally want a pure EV, I don’t have a problem with Tesla putting a range-extender — whether powered by gasoline, biodiesel, hydrogen fuel cell, ethanol rotary engine, or anything else — in their cars, on three conditions:
1. The RE is always optional;
2. The space that would be occupied by the RE can be filled by additional batteries in a pure EV edition, or left vacant for after-market enhancements.
3. The RE can be easily removed, to accommodate a battery upgrade, at such time as reliable, higher-capacity batteries become available. (Perhaps it can be designed to be removed and replaced by the user, so that the car can be pure EV most of the time, carrying the weight of the RE only when necessary, on long trips.)
I think fossil fuels will be employed for a long time. But recent developments in the battery industry make me hopeful that a long-range pure EV will be feasible within ten years. In the interim, Tesla should continue to pursue its mission of increasing the total number of electric miles driven. If providing RE assist is the difference between a significant number of customers giving their money to Tesla for real EVs (which will, in turn, help fund the development of better EVs), or giving their money to another company for a hybrid that is more on the ICE side of the fence (with no guarantee that the profits will ever be ploughed into the development and marketing of pure EVs), should we not prefer the former situation?
My mechanic recently explained to me how big the emissions mess is in California. More and more components are tied to the computer that tracks emissions, including the catalytic converter. He has seen catalytic converters that are only a few years old (with a moderate number of miles on them) have to be replaced - over a thousand dollars for the part, plus labor. As a new fan of the Battery EV concept, I’m obviously not in favor of pollution, but I’m very suspicious of all the things that rapidly make cars obsolete - and painfully expensive. By making an ICE a integral component of a Tesla vehicle, you’re adding initial cost, maintenance, replacement parts, and a lot of weight. And annual or bi-annual smog checks, which are now over $50 in my county. It seems more logical to make a pure battery-powered car that has to option to drop in a motor/generator/fuel tank or a generator trailer, so those costs and problems are separate from the car itself. You could buy them later or never, and you could operate the battery-powered car while the internal combustion stuff is in the shop. (And never have to spend the time and money on a smog check.)
As for “the recent management changes” addressed by Mr. Musk, there are two nagging issues for many of us who are following developments in the Tesla world. (1) We miss Martin Eberhard, the founder/visionary/chief spokesman. He was a class act, with a great combination of wit, zeal, intelligence and modesty. Darryl is a fine voice for the company, but Martin was the best. We’d love to see him come back in some useful role. (2) Mr. Musk failed to mention Martin by name - there is no hint of gratitude for Martin’s accomplishments. Mr. Musk seems to have a deficit of humility. I have no idea how to fix this…
So I’m still a fan; wishing the best of success for Tesla. I’m grateful for the continued (though diminished) openness. I just hope they don’t degrade into another mediocre American car company. And I hope Mr. Drori has something to say to the fans. Soon.
Elon and the other investors are putting in another $40 million to get the roadster out. Haven’t seen any mention of that above. Just some ignorant experts speculating about what is going on behind the scenes. Elon’s commitment cannot be questioned. Go Tesla - the world is on your shoulders and there is no time to waste.
What I see is a transition period from PHEVs and REEVs to fully battery-powered BEVs. Today’s LI batteries are restricted by long recharge times and low densities. However, I don’t think that will continue. Because of economic incentives, there are major efforts by the scientific community to improve the LI’s capabilities. The recent announcement of the silicon nanowires anode by Stanford University hold the promise of 20 hour continuous PC operation for small format batteries and a thousand mile range per charge BEV, for large format batteries. Let hope that some day soon those batteries can be retrofitted to the Teslas and will negate the need for REEVs.
vfx said: “Since WWll was caused by WWl and WWl was a war of oil and we are currently and continiously fighting a wars for oil …”. I recently saw a History Channel documentary that stated the assasin of Archduke Ferdinand wasn’t merely an anarchist, but a Zionist, who believed European powers were preventing Israelis from forming their own state, so he initiated a European war to allow for the formation of Israel. Your theory about it being all about oil is just a smoke screen for the direct cause.
Robert Prichett,
While I enjoyed the website and data sheet on the Solar Sterling Engine from Infinia Corp, your post was clearly a shameless promotion of a product that could never be used as an RE.
Good Morning Richard. I appreciate your feedback… and understand your skepticism. Our technolgy is different than anything currently understood (although based on readily accepted physical principals). I did not want to give away too many of the technological details over a blog, but would gladly share with Tesla Motors once a NDA is in place. In response to your last paragraph (referring to David as a scam artist), I disagree. I have worked closely with David for some time now - not only as an investor, but as a business partner and friend. The technology does indeed work and is unlike anything the world has seen. We are reaching out to Tesla Motors first for three reasons - we believe in the concept, the timing, and the people involved. This is not a scam - it is absolutely real. I spoke with David a few minutes ago and he will be sending a (more technical) response shortly as well…
Richard, thank you for your comments. And, they are perfectly true as far as they go. However, since we are not under an NDA and this is not the perfect forum for a technical discussion, we cannot really go into a lengthy disclosure of the technology. But, I can disclose that the process does convert heat into electricity and does it in a manner that does not need to invoke “weird” physics outside of the standard model. So, your analysis is correct as far as it goes, but our technology and implementation of the technology takes it a bit further. As noted above, “The strength of transparency sits right next to the weakness.”
I think Tesla Motors is a great application for this technology, and we want to make the company aware of its potential (before Christmas, for sure).
And, BTW, it is not a scam, we have never scammed before and our backgrounds do not warrant the inference.
Mike Strom,
take your device to the Nuclear power companies, they’ll love to convert their massive amounts of low-grade waste heat (50% of total energy generated?) into electricity. I also bet getting rid of that ecological impact will make them and the fish down stream the rivers very happy. You’ll be the next super-billionaire and environmental hero too.
Thank you so much.
A few observations. First, on the Zahara Ventures thing, Mike Strom wrote: “We could increase the miles per charge in your vehicles at least three times with very little modification to your current design.” Given that the current drive train is already 72% efficient from battery to wheels (Richard’s figure), this is blatantly thermodynamically impossible. (It would create a perpetual motion machine.) NDA aside, I would invite Mike Strom or David Carver to kindly explain to us how a 216% efficiency doesn’t violate “accepted physical principals [sic]”.
On the transmission; a question for Tesla: is it true that none of your prototype transmissions have matched the final spec durability-wise, or do you have some prototype transmissions that work fine, but haven’t been able to ramp them up to full production for whatever reason? Also, curious whether you’ve investigated a continuously-variable transmission as an alternative? (If not, why not?)
Finally, given that the interim transmission for early customers will be restricted to a single gear (equivalent to the eventual second gear, as I understand it), is there any chance you could adjust the ratio for that gear to be somewhere in between the first and second gears of the final transmission? To illustrate, here are the specs for first and second gear of the spec transmission:
First gear: 0 - 60 in ~4.0 seconds, top speed 65MPH.
Second gear: 0 - 60 in ~5.6 seconds, top speed ~130MPH.
So if you made a gear ratio somewhere in the middle, perhaps you could split these figures:
Intermediate gear: 0 - 60 in ~5.0 seconds, top speed 100MPH?
If I’m going to be driving an interim single-speed transmission for a few months, this is the one I’d choose. Just a thought. -Ben
Sid wrote
Elon’s commitment cannot be questioned.
We’re not questioning his commitment; we’re trying to point out nicely and calmly that a) Big Auto can make PHEVs or REEVs much more cheaply than Tesla and will push Tesla cars out of those markets and that b) in developing and selling drivetrains for these types of vehicle, Tesla will have to neglect / lose the lead in developing battery systems for pure EVs and will have to play catch-up and compete with other PHEV suppliers like A123.
It will be interesting to see how the independence of Tesla Stores is affected by any deals with major US car companies. www.teslamotors.com/blog3/?p=58 www.teslamotors.com/blog3/?p=60 . I’m sure Tesla will be “encouraged” to open its doors to more familiar selling practices and maybe a wider selection of hybrids.
Tesla will play a part in a revolution, I’m sure. However, you will understand, if you take a few days to read through many of these blogs, why this particular “ignorant expert”(?) finds Elon’s proposed direction for this company of little interest.
Looking forward to the final chapter of the Roadster launch.
Happy Christmas BTW
I believe that the American electric automotive industry is going to get help from abroad. The following link is to an introductory article about new business models that are being implemented in other parts of the world and involve electric cars (in large volumes):
Shai Agassi is another Sillicon Valley product that after making “enough” money has refocused his energy to developing non-oil based transportation means. His focus is on the infrastructure needed (points where the battery can be replaced on the go and charging stations for every parking stall). I believe he is one of the individuals that will fill the 2nd half of the technology development that ubiquitous electric cars require. Next link is to a Stanford lecture Shai Agassi delivered in April 2007 … It’s a very inspirational talk (like all Sillicon valley talks) in which he condenses most of his life’s achievements. In the last 10 minutes though he talks about his ‘energy manifesto’ (he mentions Tesla Motors briefly):
edcorner.stanford.edu/authorMaterialInfo.html?mid=1684
Like everyone here I hope this will succeed!
Happy holidays everyone!
The silicon wire battery breakthrough is exciting and I was going to post a link yesterday, but I figured many others would too. But you guys really need to read the articles carefully and the interview with Cui. It is NOT a 10 fold increase in energy, but a “several-fold” increase. The reason is that this 10 fold increase is for the anode only, and the cathode is the limiting factor. Cui says that this will enable decrease in materials used for the anode, and increasing cathode materials - all in all decreasing battery total weight.
Anyway, several fold is plenty as all you really need is a 500 mile range. That’s 7 hours of driving … but after 5 hours (350-400 miles) you need a break, you can eat and recharge in an hour from 1/4 tank to 3/4 tank (ie from 150 miles left to 400 left), then drive another 350 miles or so. That’s 700 miles a day, good enough for anybody (well unless you’re driving across the Sahara and there’s no electric outlets nearby)
Accepted physical principles dictate that the power coming from the battery’s potential energy storage cannot be greater than 100%. A 72% efficiency from the battery to the wheels is exceptionally efficient, and we don’t claim to make the efficiency any greater. So, where does the “extra” energy come from? That is the question in your mind, and we unfortunately cannot talk about that in an open forum. Hopefully we will get a response. We really did not want to create confusion; have a great Christmas!
milos-
Silicon Nanowires is a laboratory concept, hatched by a professor and his graduate students, I think there’s a leap to think we’ll have all the manufacturing bugs worked out in a few months, and be able to purchase these enhanced batteries anytime soon at a price that make them worthwhile. It looks hopeful, just like the LiFePO4 developed by John Goodenough’s research group at the University of Texas in 1997 and are now becoming commercially available. Then lets hope we don’t have some patent fights et cetera.
How often, and how many people travel 500 miles in their car? I think the long range EV is a smokescreen, the GM EV-1 had a pretty short range, good enough for commuter travel. Adding ~$10,000 to the battery for a long range possibility just to diffuse an argument does not make sense.
David Carver -
Your spelling is improving. Go back to selling used cars. I don’t think Elon needs your math lessons.
No person in their right mind will ever buy a conventional ICE powered or assisted car from Edison Motors(previously Tesla Motors). If it’s something innovative like a turbine with greater efficiency and lower emissions… then it is a possibility. Looking at the reality of the situation, and the time it will take to complete the next car, battery tech will be there.
People need to get used to the idea of using cars as a local means of transportation. Trains are, and always will be a much better solution than cars, with more than 10 times the efficiency, and a much more pleasant experience they are the future of long distance transportation and shipping. Perhaps this is something Martin may put some thought into.
If we have to talk about REEVs I believe we need to distinguish between the various different types that are emerging in some way that will make sense to ordinary people. I would suggest that maybe there are two main types of REEV, the UREV (Unlimited Range Electric Vehicle) and the LREV – no prizes for guessing what that one stands for….. the Limited Range Electric Vehicle. An LREV would basically just have a very small generator that could be described as a ‘get you home’ pack. This would only supply sufficient power for emergency top ups and a slow cruise home. A UREV, on the other hand would have a generator of sufficient size and power to provide the full range of performance indefinitely as long as fuel is available. The GM Volt would clearly qualify as a UREV while a Tesla Roadster or Whitestar fitted with a tiny generator, to avoid becoming stranded, would be an LREV.
These are only my suggestions (and I’m really sorry for introducing yet more acronyms!) but I also think it might be an idea to talk about these generators in terms of the cruising speed they would provide, and be able to sustain, in a given car on a continuous basis. So we could talk about an 80mph pack in a Volt and this would be an Unlimited Range EV. The generator only has to sustain something above the maximum legal speed without depleting the charge in order to qualify. The top speed of the vehicle is irrelevant as you can’t legally cruise at this speed anyway and not many of us want to. Of course an 80mph generator for a Tesla Roadster might only be a 40mph generator if fitted to a truck, because of aerodynamic effects, so the classification only applies to a specific vehicle. Obviously even an LREV could still be driven at any speed over the full range of performance of the vehicle but it would not be able to sustain this type of driving indefinitely as the battery would run down even with the generator running.
If Tesla sticks to producing LREVs that only have a ‘get you home’ pack that will enable cruising at say 40 to 50mph the size of generator can be limited to something that won’t be too intrusive if it is carefully packaged. This way Tesla is still producing electric cars but has an interim solution until battery developments make this unnecessary. I’d be interested to see any comments from TEG 2 or Anatoly or anybody who can add some more technical details (even Tesla but that’s unlikely!) The main benefit I can see to an LREV is that the generator can be several orders of magnitude smaller if you halve the cruising speed available. It takes more than double the energy to cruise at 80mph as compared with 40mph.
#
David Carver wrote on December 23rd, 2007 at 9:54 pm
Accepted physical principles dictate that the power coming from the battery’s potential energy storage cannot be greater than 100%. A 72% efficiency from the battery to the wheels is exceptionally efficient, and we don’t claim to make the efficiency any greater. So, where does the “extra” energy come from? That is the question in your mind, and we unfortunately cannot talk about that in an open forum. Hopefully we will get a response. We really did not want to create confusion; have a great Christmas!
Anything that has “perpetual” in it’s claim/description is a scam. As far as we know, in our current universe only time is “perpetual”.
Count me as anti-RE. As Reverend King once noted - “Now is not the time to take the tranquilizing drug of Gradualism”. And that is exactly what this leaning towards RE is. While it may seem to be the path towards “maximizing electric miles”, in reality it serves to de-legitimize the concept of electric vehicles and delays the infrastructure. There are plenty of electric miles to be driven that do NOT require range extension, and that was (and should continue to be) Tesla’s focus and strength. Sell your technology to other automakers to halibutize if you must (though I think it unwise). But don’t dilute Teslamotors in this way or I fear your dream to shrink before you even get started.
Elon,
I’ve been following Tesla’s plans and blogs from Day 1, and I think it’s comforting to see that Tesla will be considering a REEV option for later models. I’m frustrated by the people on this blog that get angered at such a prospect, especially when a REEV concept will make the car much more attractive to main stream marketing for those longer trips from time to time. The people that say Tesla is backing down from its original promise by not staying all-electric are somewhat short-sighted in my opinion.
It makes no sense, with today’s battery technology, for the mainstream public to lug around so much battery weight to have a 200 mile range if you can carry less battery weight for, say a 50 mile range, and have the ICE option to go further than any pure-combustion drive train can take you today.
You say your goal is unchanged, “to do everything possible to increase the number of electric miles driven”. Making a REEV is without a doubt working towards that goal. By opening up the market segment to more buyers, you’re making that goal even more possible. The nay-sayers who scoff at having any bit of ICE in a car don’t fully understand how to achieve the goal that you have in mind. WIthout a doubt, Tesla making a REEV (even if it’s an option available on Model 2, and not standard) will generate more electric miles driven than if they had not, simply by the larger population being able to adopt the car, without having to also buy a second car to handle trips the pure-EV cannot. It just makes more sense environmentally and financially until battery/recharge technology improves more such that long pure-EV trips can be widely adopted without barriers.
I, for one, am glad that Tesla is able to realize the potential by making such a move, despite it going against your previous plans. Here’s to your continued success! I hope all of your team has a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
@David Carver:
I agree this is neither the forum nor the time to introduce a product or an idea based on investments. Perhaps your interest would be better served by attempting to contact the company officials directly or another company. Your idea and/or product should be presented in a well-structured formal manner, if you intend to profit.
@milos:
Please include your link on Si wires; I think many of us are interested in accurate truths.
ET AL:
I myself have a goal in mind when I comment on forums and that is to minimize the burning of chemicals in the atmosphere, no matter if those chemicals are made from corn, sugar cane, switch grass, chicken fat, or fossils. I believe that capturing solar heat and light energy from the sun is the only long-term solution to the Earth’s energy problems. All the rest are just gross-polluting, interim, solutions driven by short-sighted economic and political self-interest.
See the following link: www.motherearthnews.com/Alternative-Energy/2007-12-01/Solar-is-the-Solution.aspx
Tesla Motors is moving in the correct direction; now if we could just have the power utilities move to solar generation that would complete the loop.
The real reason for REEV is to reduce the cost of the vehicle by reducing the expensive batteries and therefore reducing driving range. If Tesla does not beat Chevy Volt to the marketplace they will be at a significant disadvantage because Chevy can drive down costs with production volume and Tesla will have a hard time matching the Volts price.
Some purists might not like the idea of a hybrid car but we need to get these cars on the road now. I think Tesla is heading in the right direction, I just wish they could get there a little quicker.
are you people dense? How many times can they said that the extender range is an “Option”. You don’t want it don’t get it!!!!!!!!!!
For some of us who make cross country trips to visit family during holidays and vacations we might like the freedom to drive farther then apx. 220 miles before having to stop to re-charge the car. Tesla motor continue the path that you guys are carving: innovate, improve and best of all lead.
After reading the latest news on Cerberus, I think the recent passage of the new CAFE standards may just kill Chrysler’s product lines, except for the Eagle vehicles. Jeep’s are the most popular ATV’s around, but are not known for being high mileage, so that priceless nameplate may just vanish. Only the Eagle vehicles are capable of high mileage, but I don’t know that Cerberus has the money to retool. Perhaps they should just sell the Jeep and Eagle nameplates to Ford or GM or some Chinese auto company like Chery, which is already rolling hybrids off the production lines.
Ladson Isaac :
We intend to profit. But somebody has to respond at some point to have a dialog. How long should you wait for somebody to respond? A day, a week, a month, a year, a decade, a century? Have not waited a decade or a century, but a year seemed long enough. The time has not be wasted, however.
Silicon Nanowires: google is your friend
www.google.com/search?hl=en&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&q=silicon+nanowire&spell=1
This is just research stuff, likely only to produce papers for PhD’s for the next few years. If and when it ever becomes a commercially available technology suitable for low cost production of batteries we can raise our hope, which right now looks worse than finding helium-3 mined on the moon.
Regarding hydrogen, I keep seeing countless articles by people trying to kill hydrogen as an alternative fuel. I absolutely don’t understand why anyone would want to hinder the development of any clean fuel source. If you don’t want to use hydrogen, then don’t use it. Jet aircraft require a fuel to burn, and ocean going sea vessels can’t stop and recharge on open sea voyages, so hydrogen is the only viable solution to those two industries.
When it comes to energy, as long as it is clean, abundant and cheap, no one should care as to what solutions consumers gravitate. Relative efficiencies are NOT a factor, only cost and performance.
Folks,
By the time your Roadster needes a replacement battery, the technology will have mattured to the point of exceeding 500miles/charge. How many of you want to park your butts in a car for more than 500miles/day? I didn’t think too many of you whould even want to drive the 250 let alone 500. I believe technology will settle the need for a REEV concept. Personally I think it is a waste of time and a needless diversion that Tesla should not bother with. On the other hand, a prudent approach would be for Tesla to keep abreast of all technology approaches and Reev is just one of many. Hope the Tesla folks keep it all electric the way Tesla would have wanted it.
Dirk
@Jason Handler
Here’s why:
Hydrogen is good and clean, but the problem with Hydrogen is that
you cannot get it from a socket in your house
extreme pressures
expensive vessels in cars and distribution
somewhat explosive
proprietary fuel cell technology (expensive membranes, short life) = high cost, internal combustion would work but is sadly inefficient (~25%?)
it has to be produced from electricity with expensive machines
Hydrogen is just a energy storage device, just like a battery, except it takes Liberty, money and choice away from you. This concept preserves the power of the Billionaires. (What would the price of a barrel of oil be today if most cars were made electric staring back in 1979? Three bucks? Crude was at a low of $9.86 in Jan 1999, the 2003 oil-war “helped” to fix that problem. Exxon’s CEO got a $686 Billion bonus and Occidental’s got $460B recently. How much of their profits were spent on developing cheap solar-cells you can buy outright and put on your roof? These amounts are not spending money for 70-year olds; this is raw political power and dynasty building. These types control the planet, including the media. Hydrogen is a diversion, or a smokescreen, don’t get sucked in.)
Compared to 3-phase electric motors with batteries and standard utility power you have very little chance of anyone creating a monopoly, which just why it has taken so long to get to EV’s. (co-generation is not something wanted by the utilities, it was rightly shoved down their throats)
Imagine everything that disappears with EV’s: NO gas-stations, No fuel trucks, no gasoline tankers, all heavy IC engines-, transmissions-, catalytics-, emission-controls, mufflers, exhaust pipes, cooling systems, engine oils, et cetera disappearing, and and the attendant resistance from the incumbent profiteers with vast funds to buy politicians. The expense of repairing these new cars with a serious engine or transmission problem may usually lead to a new car purchase. Suppose an EV conversion of the old wreck, brakes and suspension are cheap to fix. Rust is a real problem. Re-using old cars may save a lot of energy used in the manufacturing of a new car. I bet the car dealers and the big auto-makers loves this idea.
Ocean going vessels have been using wind power successfully for a few thousand years. Their slower speed may actually help the balance of trade.
Aircraft can burn bio-diesel. www.ars.usda.gov/is/AR/archive/jul01/jet0701.htm
www.ioga.com/Special/crudeoil_Hist.htm
What happens if:
You think that 250 miles is a lot and you get lazy and don’t charge every night,
And/Or there is an emergency and you need to do a lot today.
And the battery runs down, the Roadster goes into power saving mode but eventually runs flat.
Don’t tell me it won’t happen - things happen.
The press would have a field day.
Now if someone could bring along a trailer (with a generator that plugs into the Roadster charging socket) that you could tow - you’d be very grateful. Or if your internal gas generator could generate some power - that would save the day.
Another scenario. What happens if there is a cyclone warning and you have evacuate to 300 miles away?
Like others said before: DON’T MAKE A HYBRID CAR. (range extended, whatever you want to call it.)
Martin’s vision was to make a electric only company for the 21st century.
Even if Tesla’s management doesn’t like Martin working for the company, they should consider that the majority of customers became interested in the company because of Martin’s vision. He will remain an icon and the godfather for Tesla Motors.
Don’t include gasoline engines in any of your cars. I live in California and I don’t want to deal with SMOG or California Air resources board any more. Adding a gasoline engine to your cars gives CARB power to regulate your company.
Please fix the transmission issue soon. Other companies have caught up, Tesla is not the only game in town anymore. There is Phoenix Motorcars, Lightning, Aptera. etc. Make sure your car makes it to production first. I love the Tesla design. I hope “model 2″ will also be “mid engined” Tesla should be know for great handling cars.
Please consider switching batteries for the 2009/2010 model years. Altair Nano, or similar. We would like batteries that charge in 6 minutes.
We would like Mr. Drori, the new CEO, to also write a blog soon. He’s a great public speaker, as I could tell from the audio clips.
Happy Holidays to all of Tesla Motors!
I am happy to hear that the Tesla is alive and kickin’. Whether the introduction of the RE is a smart move or not will probably never be known. Generally I support the battery-only version. The EV revolution is overdue and we need to switch to greener car technology as soon as possible. But thats me. When thinking of the many not yet EV-infected drivers out there, then the RE probably makes sense. Toyota has led the way here. Most people will not be able to switch radically from 30 years of driving gasoline powered cars to fully electric cars. The Pruis is a good way to get people used to the fact that the car can also be powered by batteries. The next step will be the plugin-hybrid. The RE Tesla will probably find more buyers with the RE, and that is positive. And with the given EV range it will most likely be anyway not often necessary to use the combustion engine. Important is that Tesla is not dissappearing again like so many other EV companies. I keep my fingers crossed.
CRS,
Distilling your post, you again complain that hydrogen is a less efficient storage device than batteries, but it is NOT the efficiency that matters, it is the cost for the whole approach. How much does it cost to acquire and charge 7,000 batteries for the car, versus a fuel cell (now that it takes 1/6th the platinum due to the nickel-platinum alloy that was developed) and the hydrogen? I suspect they are similar. Your next complaint is that you don’t want there to be a monopoly in providers of hydrogen - the same could be said about providers of electricity. In a sense, hydrogen will be in competition with electricity, preventing a monopoly in transportation energy in general, just as diesel keeps gasoline in check. Fuel cells eliminate all the ICE accessories that you list, so that isn’t an arguement. Bio-diesel is similar in pollution and greenhouse emissions as jet fuel, so other than taking market from oil companies, what have you gained? The latest approach to powering ocean vessals with wind is the use of a parasail off the ship’s bow, which is expected to only cut fuel by 30%, and wind is not a reliable resource for commerce.
In the end, anti-hydrogen advocates are just trying to undermine existing energy companies that already possess the fuel stations and distribution system to handle hydrogen. If the US is ever involved in a war again, it is going to require petroleum or hydrogen to fight that war, so you are once again undermining the military industrial complex.
It’s good to hear that Tesla remains on track, if slower than we would have hoped. I look forward to seeing the magazine reviews, and hearing about delivery of the first purchases. Regarding the REEV/hybrid, this is clearly an option that some will want. But strategically, it may make more sense for Tesla to differentiate by sticking to pure electric, and sell the electric drivetrains to companies that will in turn produce REEVs.
Re: Who helped kill the electic car?
Just thought this might be of interest. It’s almost certainly in other press reports but the Guardian is as good as any.
www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,,2231965,00.html
Peter J Hedge
Victoria, BC
Well thank you very much Mr. Hedge. Nice find. You see this is what we are all up against. Bye the way I think Tesla should stay in the all-electric space. However, as long as you produce both all-electric and extended range options I’ll be happy. I also feel Tesla should continue its position of pushing all-electric tech to its limits. Please allow that to be the core of your research. I know this is your intention but I wanted to stress that anyway. One of the most important advancements I personally feel this company should be aggressively tackling is elimination of the transmission in future models. I direct this toward Elon because I know he has the power to step Tesla engineers in this direction.
I’m sorry Mr. Hendler I’m actually distilling your post here. Hydrogen doesn’t make sense, its that simple. If it did Tesla would be using it in there car now wouldn’t they? And why do you care about undermining existing fuel companies so much? Do you work for them Hendler? Just my two cents.
Happy Holidays to everyone at Tesla Motors!
CRS - never suggested silicon nanowires were going to be ready in a few months - the inventor guesses 5 years. And the long-range EV is NOT a smokescreen .. hardly - or Tesla wouldn’t be considering a range-extender. And there’s a huge difference between 220 and 500 mile range. I couldn’t get from SF to LA in one day on the former, and though not many people drive 500 miles in one day enough do. And in any case, those range figures are at ideal operating conditions - no long uphills, no constant hard accelerating. With a nominal 500 mile range, you know you have, say, 300 hard driving miles.
Ladson Isaac - the link was posted earlier in this blog - I’ll post it again
www.gm-volt.com/2007/12/21/gm-voltcom-interview-with-dr-cui-inventor-of-silicon-nanowire-lithium-ion-battery-breakthrough
interview with the inventor.
#
Sid wrote on December 25th, 2007 at 3:15 am
“Another scenario. What happens if there is a cyclone warning and you have evacuate to 300 miles away?”
Simple, you leave your roadster in the garage with the other cars and have your chauffer drive you to one of your other houses that is at least 300 miles away, what’s the problem? I can’t believe all the crazy scenarios people are coming up with. What do you think the roadster is going to be used for? Daily commute to a 9-5 job, grocery shopping, taking the kids to school? Have you all lost your minds? It’s a recreational toy for halibut’s sake! It doesn’t matter how far it can go! You don’t have to rely on it to save you in an environmental catastrophe. You won’t be able to drive far enough anyway when the comet hits.
I agree with the sentiments expressed, that there should be no gas used in future models. Not even for range extenders. Martin was right on track with BEVs. Good luck.
When will lower end models be available? Say in the $20k-$30k range? As much as i would like the roadster, I would imagine it would be a tight squeeze to get a 2 kids seats in there….
It makes sense for a high end car like the Tesla to be pure electric, but cost and market considerations presently dictate a need for plug-in hybrids. It might be difficult to sustain an auto company on EV’s alone. While I’m not a big fan of GM, I did alot of work on the power train in the early 80’s for an electric vehicle that GM was going to produce. Yes, the bad GM who killed the elctric vehicle. As bad as they are, GM had plans to produce 200,000 EV’s a year based on a projected vehicle cost and a projected fuel price. The vehicle cost came out 20% higher than target, and fuel prices started to decline. As market conditions changed, the price-quantity curve and the vehicle cost changed until a point was reached where no money could be made, around 75,000 vehicles a year. To be fair, GM can be an environmentally repsonsible company, but like any company their prime responsibility is to shareholders. I’m sure GM also did their marketing homework on the Volt and detemined that a plug-in hybrid product can make money.
It it increases sales, on board range extension can only benefit the pure EV version of the Tesla by reducing cost through increased volume of common parts and by reducing fixed costs per vehicle. And it allows those who can’t live with EV only power to enjoy the benefits of owning a Tesla.
Jason M. Hendler wrote on December 25th, 2007 at 5:48 pm
Distilling your post, you again complain that hydrogen is a less efficient storage device than batteries, but it is NOT the efficiency that matters, it is the cost for the whole approach.
>>
In the end, anti-hydrogen advocates are just trying to undermine existing energy companies that already possess the fuel stations and distribution system to handle hydrogen. If the US is ever involved in a war again, it is going to require petroleum or hydrogen to fight that war, so you are once again undermining the military industrial complex.
===================
Jason,
Efficiency DOES matter. It affects “the cost for the whole approach.”
A few years ago, the US spent something like $1.2billion to help fund H2 research and education. I was really excited because I had to opportunity to receive a fuel cell car kit and educational training and materials to use in my HS science classroom, all paid by my tax dollars. I was really glad to be able to teach my students about the benefits of a H2 society and have government support to do so. After studying the information provided, doing experiments with a reversible fuel cell, and studying the use of H2 further, I came to the realization that H2 was not the best energy storage and transfer mechanism for powering cars. H2 is great for many things. I believe it was Sprint who has several cell sites which use fuel cells as back-up power which came in handy when the east coast had the power black-outs a while back. Fuel cells can be fueled up and let sit for quite a while without a loss of energy like many battery chemistries and they don’t require the same high level of maintenance like a diesel generator would.
For a car, however, a battery is a cheaper route to go. If I don’t want to pay someone else to produce and possibly deliver the H2 for my car I get more “bang for the buck” to have my electricity, from the grid or solar panels, charge the batteries in my car than if I have it create H2 from water. I can drive well over twice as far on a KWh of electricity in a battery powered car as the same KWh producing hydrogen for my fuel cell car. Fuel cells don’t do well in the rough vibrating environment of a car, most batteries do much better. Just like batteries have a calendar/cycle life, fuel cells have a life span and will have to be replaced. I know of people who are still using the same batteries in their car and it has been over 20 years! The technology is already here for a battery powered car. Fuel cells have been around for well over 30 years but they are not ready for use in cars where I can opt for a H2 powered car where I can purchase all of the parts I need for a BEV. I know, I’m driving one.
I’m not trying to undermine anything and yet because I’m not for hydrogen to power our cars you claim I’m some how trying to undermine our government and national security? I’m far from it. While there maybe some who are doing as you claim I’m sure there are many, if not most, who don’t fit your mold. Petroleum and related products, like plastic, will always have their place. Since the most commonly used source of H2 today is from natural gas, why use up this fossil fuel in my car when I can leave it for national security?
As I understand it, Martin’s vision for Tesla came from a scientific, not political, approach to what the best way to power a car would be. He choose to power a car with batteries. Is he, and now Tesla Motors, trying to undermine our national security?
David Nelson
One more in a cacophony of whiners regarding CA getting slapped back down into line by the EPA.
www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=17027&url=http://www.mercurynews.com/opinion/ci_7809827?nclick_check=1
As I suspected, it is more about using legislation to skew free markets and create business opportunities in CA, than actually trying to make the world a better place. The Bush administration was right to DENY CA’s waiver. The new federal CAFE standards only level the playing field for US auto manufacturers to compete with foreign ones, and any more tinkering might send them into full collapse. The new ferderal CAFE standards will already produce the emission results CA needs for clean air, without creating a special market for local companies to rape.
To Jason Hendler-
Your last two posts display a misunderstanding of Hydrogen that is almost laughable. I want to examine these quotes:
“I absolutely don’t understand why anyone would want to hinder the development of any clean fuel source. If you don’t want to use hydrogen, then don’t use it. Jet aircraft require a fuel to burn, and ocean going sea vessels can’t stop and recharge on open sea voyages, so hydrogen is the only viable solution to those two industries.”
First and foremost, Hydrogen is NOT a “clean fuel source.” In fact it is neither “clean” nor a “fuel source.” Let me remind you that H2 is not mined; it is converted from fossil fuels in processes that create carbon emissions. Even if we switched to electrolysis (which we won’t anytime soon) there are still emissions from the power plants, which is why efficiency does matter: yes, drawing power from the grid to charge batteries creates emissions as well, but if it takes twice as much grid energy to fuel up with H2 (a conservative estimate) that’s twice the emissions. Secondly, you have to let go of this strikingly naive suggestion that “if you don’t want to use hydrogen, don’t use it.” That’s not how this works; we as taxpayers are massively subsidizing this dead-end technology at the behest of the car companies and big oil…we still have to pay for it even if we don’t use it (and at the moment, how many people are using it?) and it is still distracting policymakers and the public from realistic and actually-clean technologies. Hydrogen is not just an idea that isn’t quite as good as BEVs; it’s a truly bad and wrongheaded idea that threatens to harm our economy and ecology while wearing a green facade. Ignoring it will not make it go away, and continuing its development does much harm and no good.
Also, concerning Hydrogen jets and ships: did you just pull this out of thin air? Do you have any evidence that there has been more work done on these projects than simply stating their theoretical feasibility? I don’t know what makes you think this will be economical, and I think you are completely ignoring the considerable practical problems (energy density, loss of fuel over time, size/weight of containment, and oh-yeah-fuel-cells-don’t-work-very-well) involved. Biodiesel is a vastly superior choice for either application, and doesn’t require the largest infrastructure overhaul in world history. And before you even start with your absurdities, biodiesel does NOT have the same emissions as jet fuel; since the carbon you release burning biodiesel was taken from the atmosphere by a plant in the first place, it’s carbon neutral. In other words it’s way, way, way cleaner than Hydrogen. You have to look below the surface a bit: H2 is clean at the tailpipe and dirty overall, while biodiesel is the reverse. It’s the “overall” part that counts.
Now, onto your second misguided quote: “it is NOT the efficiency that matters, it is the cost for the whole approach. How much does it cost to acquire and charge 7,000 batteries for the car, versus a fuel cell (now that it takes 1/6th the platinum due to the nickel-platinum alloy that was developed) and the hydrogen? I suspect they are similar.”
Well, suspect all you want, but you are absolutely, unequivocally wrong. It’s clear that you simply have no command of the facts surrounding fuel cells. They are at least an order of magnitude more expensive than batteries, and again, that ignores unbelievably expensive and time-consuming infrastructure changes.
Hydrogen is a red herring, plain and simple. Please read up on its problems a bit before you run around chastising us for knocking some fictitious, magical, clean fuel.
Hunter
Just in case you might believe that Tesla Motors is being overly cautious with their release of the coupe. Check out this little recall problem. A problem that will be very expensive for GM but would be possibly financially ruinous for Tesla Motors: www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22359333/
Regarding these silicon wires in batteries …
A seven to ten fold increase in charge storage seems high to be purely chemical in nature. Do we understand the silicon wire function enough to know whether or not we are actually getting a capacitive effect? If so, is there a better configuration than this battery to gain more charge storage? Something more akin to a capacitor?
Jason M. Hendler,
No, its not just the cost of the whole approach, its also about Power, as is in people-power, which is the issue. Efficiency always matter, but it seems like you are commenting on the use of some 7,000 odd cells (originally designed for lap-tops) and their high cost.
Charging them is going to cost whatever your utility company charges per KWh, ( I currently pay $0.11) so a high charging efficiency obviously is an important factor. An extra 50KWh/week will not be noticeable in my electric bill. Cycle-life is also important as replacing batteries may be very expensive. I do not necessarily agree with the concept of using Li-cobalt-ion cells due to their aging-, price-, and safety characteristics. There are alternatives with less number of cells, much better safety, and price should be better (hopefully) as no inherently expensive elements are used i.e. Lithium Iron Phosphate. Cobalt is expensive (~$30/lb.) and is likely to get much worse. Electricity can be produced by anybody with a place for a solar-panel. Printed solar cells are coming on line at low prices, so the capital investment should be low. Wind is a bit expensive to harness as is small hydro-electric if you are lucky enough to have a good stream on your property. These companies sell large cells suitable for transportation, a ~100 cell-battery would be a nice choice for a std. 3-phase inverter and motor giving an average 320 volts (with a lithium chemistry).
www.siduo.com.tw/product-elifep.php
www.lifebatt.com/
www.valence.com/products/ucharge_overview.html
www.thunder-sky.com/products_en.asp?fid=66&fid2=82&page=2 >>In the end, anti-hydrogen advocates are just trying to undermine existing energy companies that already possess the fuel stations and distribution system to handle hydrogen. …so you are once again undermining the military industrial complex.
whoops, looks like part of the message got shaved:
“In the end, anti-hydrogen advocates are just trying to undermine existing energy companies that already possess the fuel stations and distribution system to handle hydrogen. …so you are once again undermining the military industrial complex.”
Absolutely. You hit the head of nail.
Sorry for two posts making the same point, but please, PLEASE forget about putting ICE engines in Tesla cars. Let’s get real. Tesla does not need, nor should they want, to “maximize appeal to the mainstream”. You are talking about selling, how many? roadsters in 2008? 2009? How many cars in 2010, Etc.? There is a market for EVERY ONE of those cars in a 100% BEV form. Let the big automakers worry about the timid consumer who needs the security blanket of a gasoline motor, just as Lincoln took 40 YEARS to wean its buyers away from a fake spare-tire hump. There are already plenty of makers who deal in gasoline motors and for Tesla to integrate one does NOTHING to advance the technology or the cause of electric cars or miles. You will have your hands full producing BEV. By the way, how many to date? Stop diluting the concept before you even execute step 1 of the plan. You can sell tens of thousands of BEV to people who neither want nor care about range extension. By the time those vehicles come due for battery replacements, the problem may well be solved by battery technology. As others have noted, 500 mile range eliminates almost all talk of needing a gasoline motor. Stop trying to fill a “gap” that does NOT exist. Put some roadsters on the ROAD. Then put a few thousand MORE of them on the road. Then put 10,000 Whitestars on the road. Then we can talk about whether or not your market is saturated (It won’t be). Until then, keep it pure. The world has enough half-measures. I’d hate to see a Tesla violated by a gasoline nozzle, ever!
Once again, you all reach for the “hydrogen only comes from natural gas” red herring, so that you can paint all hydrogen as “dirty”. There are many new hydrogen production and containment technologies that aren’t nearly so expensive, which appear as frequently as new battery tech, if you bother to do a simple search. Moreover, hydro-electric, geo-thermal and solar, which are all abundant, can produce hydrogen cheaply, without customers having to buy expensive batteries today. All your carping is intended to snuff those advancements, in favor of your own personal preference.
Bottom line, many people can’t afford a $20,000 battery pack per vehicle, but can afford a $2,000 fuel cell (now that platinum requirements have been reduced to 1/6th original need). Maybe there is a price point at which batteries overtake fuel cells, but that is NOT YOUR CALL. It is for consumers to decide.
As for my information on hydrogen jets, I was referring to this product, which turns out to still be a fuel cell: www.horizonfuelcell.com/UAV.htm - there’s a cool video of it actually flying. As we move to more hydrogen in vehicles, we will see prototype jets being developed.
As I read the Stanford silicon nano lithium battery idea… I was struck by the idea that they need room to expand.
This is not great news for gadgets which are small… but for a car … what about honeycombed silicon nano lithium batteries in the entirety of the vehicle? Especailly in parts like the doors, front and rear hoods (easily detachable parts by mechanic) …. spread the weight and overall capacity for storage throughout the vehicle.
Combined with current battey placement, that would give vehicle 5 bateries. On board computer could monitor each.
Another benefit would be even if one battery system fails then others could drive us home/shop.
As for Martin vs Elon.. Who cares besides them. Forward progress in an electric vehicle world is all that matters in this realm and that I am sure they would both agree.
As for roadster, bring it on! Your first clients are obviously “Early Adapters” and will embrace flaws and bugs. Behind these Early Birds are another set of adapters like me who will purchase once the thing is a proven working vehicle in the real world.
Responses from Zahara Ventures:
Ladson Isaac wrote on December 24th, 2007 at 12:11 pm
@David Carver:
I agree this is neither the forum nor the time to introduce a product or an idea based on investments. Perhaps your interest would be better served by attempting to contact the company officials directly or another company. Your idea and/or product should be presented in a well-structured formal manner, if you intend to profit.
Ladson-
We agree - forum is not ideal. However, David has previously attempted to contact Tesla Management without success. I’m sure they must get bombarded with business proposals from companies every day - some legitimate, some not. We have no doubt that Tesla Motors is an ideal fit (for them/for us) for many reasons… and I wish we could go into more details without discussing proprietary secrets. Essentially, our goal was to have someone at Tesla contact us without giving away too many details.
CRS wrote on December 23rd, 2007 at 1:44 pm
Mike Strom,
take your device to the Nuclear power companies, they’ll love to convert their massive amounts of low-grade waste heat (50% of total energy generated?) into electricity. I also bet getting rid of that ecological impact will make them and the fish down stream the rivers very happy. You’ll be the next super-billionaire and environmental hero too.
Thank you so much.
Thank you CRS for your positive and constructive feedback. We have reasons for not pursuing this option currently… even though we do enjoy making fish happy whenever possible!
Electric vehicles are a perfect match for our technology. There is no question that we could dramatically improve overall performance. All we need is an email from Tesla Motors and an NDA signed, then we would be more than happy to forward details.
Jason,
You say “Maybe there is a price point at which batteries overtake fuel cells, but that is NOT YOUR CALL. It is for consumers to decide.”
But this is not at all consumers deciding in favor of Hydrogen. It’s Hydrogen being pushed by industries for their own reasons, with the help of massive government subsidy. You can’t make your “let the market decide” stand when these guys are out there blatantly manipulating and circumventing the market.
Dear Sirs: Way to go! I don’t know much but I think we really need this car and more diverse types of the same “electric” idea. Please make a smaller and cheaper version and I will buy one. Thanks again for your marvelous contribution. If success comes to you, you will have earned it. What a fantastic invention and presentation, befitting of the name “Tesla”! Al
Hunter,
Batteries are already in vehicles, with their own infrastructure for manufacturing and distribution, so they don’t need any help. A123 and Altairnano have both automotive contracts and VC funding driving their development of product and manufacturing, so you needn’t fear for the battery’s role in the automotive industry.
Currently, our federal government needs petroleum for two reasons: 1) security - our military, national and coast guard, police, fire departments and park services depend on petroleum to power their air, water and land equipment, 2) economic - air travel / shipping, ocean / lake / river / canal transport, which are fundamental to our commerce, are only effectively powered by petroleum and 3) last, but not least, TAX revenues from petroleum are enormous at both federal / state levels, from import, refining, distribution and sale. For all those reasons, hydrogen is going to be required, because pure electric won’t meet those current uses or methods of revenue. Alcohols are not efficient, and require too much land conversion and don’t eliminate pollution.
Were I in federal government, I would see too much necessity in the capabilities of hydrogen not to help it succeed in the marketplace, but that doesn’t mean it will dominate. I have no doubt that electricity will be a major component in the auto industry, but it shouldn’t be the only one, especially because entry level car buyers can’t afford battery only vehicles.
Volkswagen Space Up! Blue, 65 miles on batteries, with fuel cell RE to give it 220 mile range total. This is what I expect will be the convergence configuration for the future:
www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1358
I saw today’s piece on NBC News. It was fairly flattering and the various shots of the Roadster were inspiring. But I was confused to see Martin included along with other apparent company spokesman (e.g., JB). Martin was identified as a “founder” of the company, giving the clear impression that he was still a player in the organization and a driving force behind the continuing development of the Roadster.
Mr. Fusion may be closer than you think www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news-toshiba-micro-nuclear-12.17b.html Yea I know, its nuclear, not fusion, but still, scale it down a little more….
Mike Strom and David Carver: I am sure that Tesla follows these blogs, and they have not responded to your preposterorus “invention” because you clearly have ignored the published facts about how efficient the roadster already is and have a blatant disregard for the laws of thermodynamics. This has been amusing reading, but please don’t insult our intelligence any more.
T.J.: High efficiency solar cells are comming in 2010 www.rosestreetlabs.com/RSL%20Sumitomo%20Final.pdf
My two cents about REEV:
I believe Tesla will be able to sell all the non-REEV vehicles it can make.
Designing two power systems and integrating them into the car will take more time.
I worry about performance and handeling compromises to make REEV and option.
Safety and crash tests will be more complicated, passengers have to be protected from batteries, and engine, and gas tank.
New battery technology will soon make the REEV obsolete anyway.
Tesla will become a “me too” company.
Tesla must do what they thinik is right, and I am not privy to all their information.
I’ve heard back from Zak at Tesla Motors, regarding my earlier questions (scroll up). In a nutshell: Tesla has already investigated continuously variable transmissions for the Roadster, but they were found to be less efficient than fixed-gear transmissions, so they weren’t pursued. Tesla does not yet have a prototype transmission that has been proven to perform to spec (durability-wise), though the prototypes now in testing may very well be up to spec. And finally, the idea of an intermediate ratio for the interim single-gear transmission is technically doable, but since the final spec transmission will be ready so soon (a few more months, hopefully), it wouldn’t make sense to shift gears (no pun intended) and do it now.
By the way, I drove past the future Tesla building in West LA last week, with the huge billboard of the car on the side, and I’m drooling! (Drool won’t cause the car to short out, will it?) I guess that’s what the Tesla-logo mugs are for…
It’s amazing to see the whole fuel cell vs. battery technology coming up again.
The bottom line is always $$$$.
1. Honda has just gotten the cost to produce their new fuel cell cars below 1 million ea. These are not one off’s either they are supposed to be coming off of an assembly line. The people driving these cars end up with a highly subsidized lease. The
2. Hydrogen is more expensive than gasoline and electricity is much cheaper.
3. Electricity already has a distribution network, and most people can easily charge at night at very cheap off peak rates using the extra capacity of baseline powerplants that is wasted. In addition a whole fleet of electric vehicles can be used across the US now without waiting for hydrogen infrastructure to be built.
4. In order to be efficient any hydrogen vehicle will end up as a hybrid requiring a battery for regenerative braking, so why not just use a larger battery?
If you use this same extra capacity at night to make hydrogen, you waste energy to create the hydrogen, you waste energy to transport the hydrogen, you waste energy to build an infrastructure, you waste energy to pump the hydrogen, and you waste energy if the car sits with hydrogen which escapes over time. Finally you waste energy converting hydrogen back into electricity.
If you store energy in a battery, the process is dramatically simplified, billions are saved by avoiding creating a whole infrastructure we don’t need. Vehicles are cheaper to produce now and will become much cheaper over time.
Did anybody see the Tesla segment on NBC news last night? www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22400978#22400978
Martin is in it. I’m not sure if this is some old clips they used to fill time on a slow news day (Top story - Tiger kills Kid)
Or is this a current press release. They do mention reletivly current info like not being released until early next yesr. Martin is introduced as CO founder. Any commets
In regard to the generator for long trips, it could be removable and then used for things like camping or fishing or in a remote location. Why not find a company that is trying to build ‘green’(ish) generators and build a utility vehicle that utilizes them. I love the company and the ideas, keep up the good work.
One more comment. Ever think of having a collapsible ‘lightning rod’ on top of the roadster so that it could be quick charged under power lines, Nikola Tesla style?
Sirs,
As an oner of Corvettes for over 40 years I find it hard to believe that your car will accelerate 0-60 in under 4 seconds in a 2,700 pound car. Your weight, torque and meager horsepower does not put you into this class. Plus, I have not seen an article or television segment where someone has actually proven this type of acceleration. Saying it does not make it so.
I can buy into the top speed of 125. But once again its never been demonstrated, at least in the media, and that is where you will get creditability.
245 miles on a single charge. At what speed? At what average speed.? “Spirited driving” is not a quantifiable number. Its all subjective.
To make this car other than a “Trendy green car” you need to have firm numbers published by a reputable 3rd party. If your business model is to produce a “Trendy green car” for a select few to make them feel good - then you are certainly on the right track.
I have designed Marketing models for the SMART car, and in the 1970’s created programs to set up SUABARU as a viable product with sales and service programs. So I do have some experience with these issues. At the end of the day, no matter who your target is, you will need a creditable product that performs both in technical aspects and promises made.
I want this new car venture of yours to succeed. Now that I am retired I will not be able to purchase a Tesla but your future electrics could certainly be in my future. With all of the Media attention you have garnered, in my mind it is very important for Tesla Motors be succesful.
As to your transmission problems, I wonder if you have investigated the feasibility of solving the two speed problem electrically (after all you are an electric car company). From what I can gather from your pictures, it appears to me that the drive train is concentric (a motor with a hollow shaft) why not make the motor two speed, double the number of poles and voltage for low gear and back to normal for high. Use a fixed 7.?:1 single or dual stage planetary gear set for the final drive. I would love for this idea to be a Eureka moment that you had not thought of and it would end up being the salvation. But I’m also realistic and imagine you have investigated this possibility and that it was rejected because the negatives may out weigh the positives. I also realize that redesigning the drive train would be a major undertaking.
Elon,
Thanks for the very positive update.
I would be interested in a model 2 [WhiteStar] minus the RE.
Provided an RE is optional, future statistics showing sales of pure EV and those of the same model with an RE should be exciting.
Wishing you and Tesla an outrageously successful 2008!
To: Elon Musk
Chairman of the Board
Thankyou for bringing some sanity to this web site. The first thing Tesla needs to do is to survive. As a teacher I am an investor in this company and I do not want to see this company go down. I tried to explain this to Martin but he just did not get it. The Volt will be out in a year or two and may sell 200,000 cars in its first year
and if Tesla is not competitive they will never be hear of again. People in general are not going to buy a car that leaves them stuck in the middle of no where or standed on a freeway. The electrical survey fiasco should have convinced people that this approach will not work and that the transition to the fully electric car is going to take time and a lot of it . General Motors had a pure electric car and they decided that it was not good enough for the general public and they were right. The Volt technology
will work for almost everyone no matter where you live and you do not even need a garage to own one. The people on this site need to get behind this company or in
the near future it may not be here.
Ronald Greene
From Zahara Ventures:
Roy wrote on December 26th, 2007 at 11:48 pm
Mr. Fusion may be closer than you think www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news-toshiba-micro-nuclear-12.17b.html Yea I know, its nuclear, not fusion, but still, scale it down a little more….
Mike Strom and David Carver: I am sure that Tesla follows these blogs, and they have not responded to your preposterorus “invention” because you clearly have ignored the published facts about how efficient the roadster already is and have a blatant disregard for the laws of thermodynamics. This has been amusing reading, but please don’t insult our intelligence any more.
Hi Roy-
Please read David’s previous comments again. We do sincerely appreciate your thoughts, even though it’s obvious you have absolutely no idea how the technology works. Hope you had a wonderful Christmas!
Best Regards,
Mike and David
Mike Craven,
Thanks so much for posting the link to the NBC footage. The Tesla Roadster looked great in that video - loved the blue one. Did you notice how clean their maintenance garage was?
Phil Roder,
I think the technical fact that you are missing is that the Tesla Roadster has maximum torque at zero RPM, so it is able to leap off the line, while a Corvette is still trying to rev up its engine. Acceleration is all about torque at low RPM’s, not max power rating at high RPM’s.
Roy,
NASA used solar cells on it’s latest Mars rover that were able to absorb energy from sunlight at three different wavelengths, and that panel performed better than expected on Mars. It is good that someone is working on a full spectrum solar cell. Hopefully they implement it in a low cost cell like Nanosolar did.
Ronald, Seriously…. GM did not decide the electric car was not good enough for the general public. It was the OIL companies and profits that GM make on gas cars. Do you think they will just give up a Trillion dollar business with out a fight?
Rob,
Fortunately, we live under a system of free market capitalism, and if automakers want to ignore opportunities, then there are plenty of others who are happy to leap on them. There is no need to demonize anyone for leaving the door open for others to take their bread and butter.
Phil Roder, take a look around and read a few things before you go running off at the mouth. First, the 245 mile range number was on the EPA highway cycle, which is clearly defined and not at all subjective. Second, OK, you’ve driven some corvettes. We’re all duly impressed. This does not make you the big expert on electric vehicle performance. You sound like you’re comparing peak torque and hp numbers, which doesn’t work well at all. Just click on the “performance” tab of the Tesla website for the basic idea. And finally, quit complaining about the lack of 3rd party testing; this car hasn’t even come off the line yet, major auto mags have been allowed to test the prototype and will be publishing in a bit over a month, and Tesla has been remarkably open about the projected specs throughout the development. When’s the last time you saw 3rd-party testing of a new vehicle from Toyota or GM before it ever came off the line? Matter of fact, how are you suggesting these numbers be produced? Other than the prototype, what do you want a 3rd party to test? What on Earth are you griping about?
Jason Hendler,
Ok, so you’ve now changed your argument quite a bit, but it still doesn’t hold any water:
1) You are really justifying this Hydrogen development by saying the government needs something to tax!? That’s incredibly bizarre, and ignores the fact that there are plenty of easy ways to tax electric cars. Many states already simply add a road/use tax when you license your EV for exactly that reason. Problem solved. No need to spend trillions on development and infrastructure. Also, it’s not like electricity can’t be taxed.
2)Once again, you go back to this claim that certain vehicles demand Hydrogen, which is downright backwards…but now you’ve added national security into the mix for effect. These military applications you describe aren’t even good candidates for H2 drives, mostly for weight, durability, and logistics reasons. And I don’t know why you think we’re talking about ethanol around here; no one has mentioned it, though you did almost-cleverly sidestep the facts about biodiesel, which is clearly the better option for military, aviation, and shipping use. And it has an energy balance way better than electrolytically-produced Hydrogen, which by the way is not available ANYWHERE (which is to say it’s not a “myth” that Hydrogen comes from fossil fuels as you say), and it is carbon-neutral.
3)I don’t know how you are so stuck on this idea that fuel cells are now cheaper than batteries. Yes, ok, we heard you the first couple times about how they need less platinum now. However, they are still many times more expensive than batteries. At least ten times. As Mark said, Honda’s FC car is just under a million bucks…and you’re complaining that “entry level customers can’t afford battery electric vehicles.” Leasing these million-dollar fuel-cell cars to customers at a price that doesn’t reflect that cost at all doesn’t sound like it’ll work long-term. Also, it doesn’t sound like a reasonable way to let consumers in the market decide…but it looks like you’ve abandoned that plan anyway if you think taxation and military needs are the reason we need H2.
Jason, you’ve been fooled. If it makes you feel better, millions of Americans are right there with you.
It’s a pity that the transmission has delayed the project so long. If a lower top speed had been spec’d (say the maximum speed limit in the US), there would have been no need for a transmission.
As far as all of the excitement over the latest battery research, if I may paraphrase: “It’s research stupid!” Quite possibly by 2012, one of the hot new batteries will be available and affordable, more likely not. I’ve seen a dozen battery technologies fall on the rocks of production realities. The 10C charge/discharge capability of A123’s battery is fantastic for a hybrid. It is of no value in a full electric vehicle, where the cells aren’t stressed and energy density is the primary concern.
Re: Roadster on TV
We also watched Martin proudly explaining the Roadster last night on TV, in the PNW (Canada).
As others have written it was quite impressive but obvioulsy “old footage” as could be seen by the ‘weather ‘ (it does get cold in SF believe it or not at this time of year yet plainly wasn’t in the clips).
So I imagine some newbies out there will be a bit confused when they learn that the passionate spokesman is no longer with Tesla. Kind of ironic if you think about it.
Peter J Hege
Victoria, BC
To Phil Roder,
I agree it’s smart to believe in 3rd party testimony regarding Tesla’s consistant acceleration claims. I’ve ridden in the car and can confirm the feelings of speed if not the exact numbers. (but who am I?)
A few weeks ago, ALL the major Automotive magazines got to test the Roadster for an hour or so.
.
.
Prepare to be blown away.
I strongly believe the marketplace will decide on the system based on cost and distance. The car has to be efficient in all ways from batteries to wheels to transmission use. The transmission problem might be solved if you consider using a variable electronic system with slippery belt drive system or go direct to the motor and control. There may be reasons why you did not just use the variable of voltages but I do know from personal experience on my electric motorcycle that the servo type system has lasted over 20 years. No breakdowns. So look further please. Best to future, guys!!
I find the range extender notion intriguing. With the GM Volt I’m not sure they have chosen the ideal technology for theirs. With a largish battery to act as buffer part throttle efficiency would no longer be an issue. Wouldn’t this make a micro turbine gen set a better match to the requirements. You can buy a turbine engine for a model aircraft that is the size of a can of soda. These are used as a gas generator to drive a power turbine that can power a turboprop or could provide the shaft power for a generator. While these are not at a suitable state of development or sophistication I bring them up to illustrate the small size, power dense, and light weight of turbine technology. With oil-less foil air bearings small turbines can be lubrication free. Turbines unlike piston engines can be perfectly balanced and relatively quiet. Turbines are also not too fussy about what fuel they use. With weight being the enemy of performance/efficiency a small and light range extender would be desirable particularly if it could be left at home when not required.
Hunter,
1) Wasn’t saying that I want the government to tax fuel, just expressing why the federal government would be motivated to do so. I am alternative fuel agnostic, not caring which one(s) prevails, but I am very wary of all those spouting anti-”big oil” rhetoric. I suspect that they have been conditioned to fear oil companies to the point where any large energy distributors won’t be trusted, even if the fuel they distribute is clean - that is political driven agenda, not economic.
2) Yes, bio-diesel is a direct substitute as a fuel, which produces the same emissions as fossil fuels. If you read the effect of agriculture on the Gulf of Mexico, you will understand that a closed carbon cycle is not clean, but poisonous. That said, I have no problem with bio waste being converted into alcohols and diesel fuel, since it will be dumped and decompose anyway.
3) Of course Honda’s fuel cells cost $1,000,000 each if they only produce a few, while paying for engineers and facilities, etc., but the volume material and processing costs have now become cheaper than than an ICE. Automotive giants have stipulated that they needed platinum costs in fuel cells to decrease 75% to be economical for volume production of their best selling vehicles, and they have dropped 83%, so the majic number has been reached. It is you who have been fooled, buying into the hype that fuel cells cost seven figures.
Fortunately, I believe that we will see enough development of fuel cells, so that the real economicals will be bourne out.
Please consider carefully how you do REEV. I have been thinking about that for several years. It strikes me that the best way is not to build the engine in, but allow it to be added every so often. I first considered a small trailer, but that will not fly with most drivers. But I saw a monster SUV with a “fanny pack” hanging from the rear bumper. If you build a fanny pack with 6 gallons of fuel, a 40 hp radmax engine (weighing 40 lbs) , and of course the generator, that would enable a 200 lb extender to be created. This same extender would work on the other models. Ideally, you would get together with other electric cars companies such as the pheonix car folks and agree on a size and means of affixing to the rear. By coming up with a standard, you have then created a new add-on marketplace. The nice thing is that this fanny pack could be replaced with a natural gas version or even a fuel cell version. Regardless, you accomplish a number of things; 1) extended range on the electric car (though you might sacrifice some weight), 2) create an add-on market 3) worked with a different vendor that will allow future compability and encourage more competition. To the average VC out there, competition would be regarded as bad, but I am sure that you know that the market must be developed.
BTW, once you go into doing model 2, please consider creating just the frame, and drivetrain and selling it. Allow others to pop a new top on it. I have been thinking that a smart move would be for simple truck frames. It can be customized for a number of uses 1) a simple box truck for in-city hauling 2) buses 3) RV vehicle (combine that a bigger rad max/generator and allow the RV to skip having a seperate system) 4) construction trucks (iagain if you build in the generator, it can be used to provide power on-site) 5) Shwan’s delivery trucks (several thousand trucks through the country; always looking to lower their costs) 6) Fed-Ex trucks as they want to lower costs.
The nice thing about the truck frame is that the add-on market already exists. You simply provide the core system and they will modify the trucks.
John Bosque wrote on December 27th, 2007 at 8:34 am
… I wonder if you have investigated the feasibility of solving the two speed problem electrically … why not make the motor two speed, double the number of poles and voltage for low gear and back to normal for high.
Doubling the poles will accomplish nothing. If the goal is to provide double the torque at low speed (which a 2:1 first gear would do) Then each of the poles would have to be the same size as the original. This approach would double the size, weight and cost of the motor. Tesla does know what they are doing.
Many people seem to have little idea of Telsa’s transmission. It is not new or unknown technology. It is basically a two speed automatic transmission without the torque converter. What makes it so unique is that it is very small and light weight, this is where the challenge is, and they do not have years of experience with it to make the first version fully optimized. I don’t know what the problem is but maybe they just shouldn’t have made the first one as small and light.
The United States’ Task Force on Strategic Unconventional Fuels posted its findings in its evaluation of various replacements for liquid fossil fuels:
www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1333
Above link is general article containing link to full report. I think their stringent requirement of having a high multiple for energy return on energy invested, regardless of economic case, is foolish, and unnecessarily ties the governments hands. If abundant, clean and cheap sources of energy can be used to create the necessary liquid fuels required to operate military aircraft, ships and land vehicles, then they should do so. Again, hydrogen would be suitable in this role, as it is already being used in ships and submarines to keep them silent running, and new jet engines could be designed to run on it. Article offers other alternatives, some carbon neutral, others carbon bad, and possibly pollutant in their extraction.
# If abundant, clean and cheap sources of energy can be used to create the necessary liquid fuels
Be sure to let me know when that happens. Clean and cheap sources of energy are anything but abundant. Right now renewable energy is not especially cheap and it’s TINY percentage of our power mix. How long do you think it will take for renewables to reach 400%, so we can afford to throw 3/4ths of it away on the hopelessly inefficient hydrogen fuel cycle?
Perhaps we’ll see breakthroughs that change the equation, and if that happens, I’m sure everyone will reevaluate their position. For now, there’s nothing on the horizon that implies a “hydrogen economy” is anything but a fantasy. Most of the smart money has figured this out.
By the way, where can I buy one of those $2000 fuel cells you mentioned? I assume they’re actually available today, since you referred to them in a comparison with a $20K battery pack that is actually available today.
Jason M. Hendler,
Why are you halibuting hydrogen for personal vehicles and hydrogen for the military transport? Do you want the vast masses to subsidize a high-pressure, explosive, and proprietary and hard-to-distribute energy source? Do you not think people want to excepted from the control of energy? Do you really believe that “the military industrial complex” and the Oil Barons are there to help any but a few multi-billionaires? Can I really give a !@#$ what happens to these nice guys? People ultimately want to have solar-panels, love, and electric battery operated cars and definitely no @#$%^ wars.
Why don’t you scoot over to some mil blog and halibut your ideas.
uk.youtube.com/watch?v=qdrGKwkmxAU&feature=related
…and find out who coined the phrase “military industrial complex”
I am a former securities analyst who heard more lies during the Internet bubble than I’d care to remember. Several months ago, I read a column in the New York Times by Joe Nocera, in which he blasted a cellphone for underperforming its hype. I wrote to him to congratulate him on the column. In the same e-mail, I advised him to keep an eye on your company.
I wrote the following: “I expect the Tesla car, like so much other crap from Silicon Valley, to be a couple years late and to do approximately half of what they said it would do.”
Shortly thereafter, the New York Times published a Tesla press release masquerading as a news story. Nocera didn’t write it, but I complained to him anyway, saying that the coverage of your company reminded my of the breathless homage paid to the Internet frauds of the late 1990s.
He wrote back to tell me that “you attract more flies with honey than vinegar.” Since then, Tesla canned its first CEO, announced that it will delay deliveries by at least a year and probably long, will put an inferior tranny in the first vehicles (to be replaced later if and when you can find one that will do what you claimed it would do), and have cut the range of the vehicle by 20%. And it looks like you’ll be getting into the hybrid car business because the all-electrics won’t have adequate range.
My last e-mail to Nocera said, “But don’t worry, none of this is newsworthy. Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.”
My comment to Tesla is this: I realize that, in Silicon Valley, it’s all about the PowerPoint presentation. No one ever really expects anyone to tell the truth about anything. But the rest of America is different. We are your potential customers, not your gullible VCs , your ignorant shareholders, or a bunch of George Clooneys with more money than brains. We expect a car that does what you said it would do. Period.
And yes, I know there’s too much vinegar there. So be it. You’d better make cars that work, and soon. Otherwise, you’ll find yourself in a pot of vinegar called Chapter 7, and you’ll deserve it.
CRS,
The storyline that greens want to push is that oil companies are evil, because they pollute and cause global warming. Oil companies replaced whaling as a source of heating and lamp oils, so, like you, they thought they were saving the whales, only to learn a century later that they are now the bad guys. Based on that storyline, if they simply switched to clean sources of hydrogen, then they will be the new good guys again, right? As it turns out, greens are just creating pollution / global warming arguments to undermine the political / economic power these corporations have, because it interferes with the communist / fascist state they wish to create. What you don’t understand, is that when it comes to the important jobs of providing abundant, cheap energy for the whole US, as with any other great need, it is ALWAYS capitalists who do the job for the government - always.
Elon,
It’s good to see the master plan is still in place, even if “range-extended”. On the RE point, I’d recommend leaving an “open” interface for coupling with the ESS that would allow any aftermarket company or technology (proprietary or not) to compete for “best fit” - let them do the work for you. Tesla’s $$$ (largely yours) still appear to be best spent on carving out a leadership position in electric propulsion itself. The batteries, integrated ESS, and related components are at the “good enough” stage of the technology curve that tends to reap the most value.
As a patent agent, I am encouraged to see two more published applications this month, and hope there are more in the pipe. At this stage, Tesla should have mapped the patent landscape and filed around all the useful control points - these will be necessary assets in defending your space and getting licensing revenue. (You should also have FTO opinion(s) on any dicey areas).
I was disappointed to see the Think deal fall through, as that looked like a parallel track to expedite Model 3, but understand the need to focus and execute on the roadster and the new challenges on Model 2. Without those, you have no company, and my best option becomes an A123 battery in my Prius…
Good luck, and please mend any fences with Martin.
Regards,
-TW
Charles Pluckhahn. Hi Charles. It must be great to be perfect like you and just sit back and criticise people who are actually trying to achieve something worthwhile. Sure they want to make money out of it, but that isn’t their only motivation in life unlike many people, some of whom may actually be securities analysts. If you are so incapable of seeing the difference between this company and the many superhyped, Internet bubble companies that you refer to in your spiteful attack, I’d suggest you get your eyesight checked. If any company has bent over backwards trying to fulfil its early promises I would suggest this one is high up on that list. They made one big mistake in my opinion and that was to go for a two-gear car and to promise zero to sixty in four seconds. Even that they only did because one experienced transmission manufacturer after another promised them that it would be no problem. Without that problem the cars would now be on the road and performing pretty much as promised. The range issue was another area where a genuine attempt to ‘guesstimate’ a final figure was made in the early days and they allowed themselves to be pushed further and further into firming this up as a promise. In ‘on-the-road’ testing the cars are delivering mileage varying between 267 at the top end and 165 at the lower end. If you can’t understand why that is an achievment in line with what was promised in the early days then I’d suggest you put down the Investor’s Chronicle for a while and read some car magazines or some technical journals. Range varies for all road vehicles and for various reasons. This vehicle is no different. People who don’t understand cars just want a single figure that they can understand but unfortunately that figure will always be misleading. This is true of every vehicle on the road and anybody with any knowledge of cars at all knows that the EPA quoted figure really means very little at the end of the day. It’s just an attempt by regulators to provide a level playing field but you can’t rely on it.
Meantime Tesla is now back on track to deliver vehicles with the promised performance as soon as the transmission problem is solved. They’re obviously prepared to spend whatever it takes to get this done, including paying for interim transmissions to keep their impatient customers happy, and I’d be amazed if they didn’t achieve that with one of the two suppliers now involved. We’ll all look forward to reading your ‘humble pie’ apology when it becomes obvious, even to those with little analytical ability, that this is an honest company delivering an honest and exceptional product in one of the most difficult markets in the world.
Needless to say, I have no connection with Tesla Motors other than as an enthusiastic reader of these blogs in the UK. I’ve also been a car enthusiast all my life and thus have some concept of how difficult it must be to come up with the goods in this area. I have every confidence that that is exactly what Tesla is going to do.
Incidentally Chuck, while you are criticising others for making inaccurate statements you might want to try and be a little more accurate yourself.
#Charles Pluckhahn wrote on December 28th, 2007 at 5:11 pm
#and have cut the range of the vehicle by 20%.
Last time I looked the original EPA mileage was quoted as 245 and now they’re saying it is likely to be 220. I’m sure my maths isn’t as sophisticated as yours….being a securities analyst an’ all….. but I make that a 10% cut not a 20% cut.
Thanks for the analysis Charles. Don’t call us…………..
Jason M. Hendler,
No the billionaires ARE the government, as you state “undermine the political / economic power these corporations have”. The US constitution is a train wreck. Their “job” is to help themselves, (nominally to increase profit to shareholders, primarily after the management has rifled through the coffers for mega bonuses regardless of merit) not the people at large. Any solution or idea that is “providing abundant, cheap energy for the whole US” which also threatens their position of monopoly and power has continually been suppressed. Big Oil have been funding anti-nuclear groups for a very long time, and google the The Great American Streetcar Scandal. We live in a fascist state that subsidizes and supports the greatest fascist/”communist” state on the planet, China who is in an economic war with the rest of the planet. (float the Yuan and see where it goes) While their communist ideals have shifted the fascist part is just getting better.
Stop being an apologist for the Multi Billionaires, of which you clearly are not a part, and start caring about what is good for the people at large.
How’s that DOE loan guarantee coming along?
Hi Elon, thanks for the words of encouragement that the vision is very much alive and will continue to be so. And I wholeheartedly hope that you sock it to Big Auto right where it hurts: in their wallet.
CRS,
Other than some multi-millionaire / billionaire Democrats in the Senate, who are the rich controlling our federal government? Wake up! The federal government has always turned to the wealthy capitalists in the US to create strategic infrastructure - oil, railroads, communications, etc., and will always partner with them, because it allows the government to throw in a penny and get a dollar back in the economic tax revenue that’s generated. Yes, China, like many other non-viable forms of government (caliphates, soviets, etc.) are sustained by the wealth of capitalist nations, but Hong Kong just announced that they will elect their own local leaders in 2017, so they are starting to learn from western examples as to the best ways to govern - they may not be creative, but they copy things that work. As a wise man once said, “Democracy is the worst form of government, except, of course, for all the rest.” Fortunately, we have a free enough society that you are able to live your life with little interference (and little support) from our government, so be very glad of that.
A couple of responses:
First, let me stipulate that I am incapable of producing an electric car. I am, however, capable of paying for one if it does what the manufacturer says it will do.
Second, Tesla first said their car would get at least 250 miles on a charge. Now they say at least 200 miles on a charge. That’s a 20% cut. By the way, as with so many other things, when it comes to that claim the devil is in the details. I’d want to know what the conditions are for that range claim. When you use lead-acid batteries, for example, there is a maximum range but in real-world use it’s inadvisable to drive to the maximum. Tesla’s vapor-car uses lithium-ion batteries, which I believe have different charge/discharge characteristics. Still, I’d be interested to know whether, in real-world use, drivers are going to be told, for example, that they’ll want to plan to recharge it more often than the rated maximum would imply.
Finally, I’d love to see Tesla disprove my skepticism. I’m quite interested in electric vehicles, and would like to own one. But I’m not real high on corporations that don’t keep their promises. My standards are the same for Tesla as they are for General Motors, which is currently running around announcing a “Volt” plug-in hybrid car that, like Tesla’s roadster, doesn’t exist in marketable form. Make the car, put it on the market, and see what happens. Everything else is a press release, and last time I looked you can’t drive a press release to the grocery store.
One other thing occurred to me: Automobiles have existed for more than 100 years. While we can expect innovation, the underlying market for them is mature. Product quality is high, performance is high, and buyers have high expectations. Toyota understood this: They conceived of a car as a household appliance, aimed for vastly improved quality, and wound up setting the global standard for product quality.
When a new entrant to the car market tells potential consumers that its car will cost X dollars, will have Y acceleration, and get Z range, and so forth, then it had better deliver on those promises or it will fail. It’s not like, say, high-speed Internet access, where you can get away with telling customers that download speeds are “up to” X Mbps. I wonder if the Silicon Valley-based founders, managers, and financial backers of Tesla Motors understand what it takes to compete in a mature product market.
Time will tell, and the clock is ticking.
Charles Pluckhahn,
Let me be the first to say that yes, you do have a point, but you infer to much about the motives of Silicon Valley start-ups. I have been in a few start-up companies, in Silicon Valley and elsewhere, and the results that EE’s get on the bench and simulation are always reported as what will occur when the product is mass produced. As experienced product developers will tell you, and as you have stated, the final product usually falls short, usually because of cost / time / production design limitations.
That said, to say that Silicon Valley execs, especially the team at Tesla, were intentionally deceptive about what their product would do, to make sales and raise capital that they otherwise wouldn’t, is just flat wrong. If Tesla had offered a vehicle with the performance specs that are now known, I suspect that they would still have made many of their current sales and raised the same capital. Moreover, it is far, far more likely that the engineers were merely naive as to what could be accomplished, not fully understanding drive trains, etc., yet, what they have accomplished is still astounding.
If Tesla has overreached in their expectations of their first product, that pales in comparison to your overreach in expectations from one of the few auto start-ups to emerge since DeLorean.
Just for the record, I haven’t written word one about anyone’s motives. I assume that Tesla is in it for the money. At least I hope they are, because last time I looked I didn’t see that they were listed as a 501(c)(3) charity. My comments are entirely aimed at Tesla’s performance, which to this point would seem to be tracking quite closely to my prediction in the e-mail to Mr. Nocera.
I do hope that Tesla hasn’t overreached to the degree that, say, DeLorean has, because we all know what happened there. Can Tesla pull it out? I had my doubts to begin with, and I think the case for doubt is getting stronger. The headline on Mr. Busk’s message notwithstanding, the song is NOT the same. That said, I’d also suspect that Tesla’s customers will be more tolerant of an 80% solution than, say, BMW’s customers would be.
I don’t have access to Tesla’s financials, so this is a WAG, but I’d figure the real proof of this particular batch of pudding will come in a year or so. I do think someone’s going to be making electric cars, but whether that someone is Tesla remains to be seen.
Jeez Charles, for someone who is so demanding of perfection and accuracy from others you sure as hell don’t hold yourself to the same high standards do you. In your latest message above you can’t even get the Chairman’s name right, or is that supposed to be a joke based on busking and the song remaining the same? If so, it’s a pretty poor joke. Getting back to your claim that they’ve dropped the range by 20%, you’re way behind the times. You keep asking for more information but you obviously haven’t bothered to read the information that is already freely available on this site. If you take the time to look at Ze’ev Drori’s blog you’ll see that the latest EPA calculation shows the current range to be 221 miles, down from 245, which we’re told was a mistake by an independent lab. That’s slightly less than a 10% drop in fact and if you look at the ‘on-the-road’ figures you’ll see that the car can actually travel much further in ideal circumstances. I’m sorry you don’t understand why range has to vary so much but it’s not for us to educate you about this……you have to study up for yourself.
What I find so irritating about your contributions is not the inaccuracy or the sheer uncharitable nature of your comments it’s the veiled, but not very well veiled, implication that these people are out to rip us off. This is a scam….it’s all vapourware. That I find really irritating. I’m a sceptic on most things and I don’t think the rich folks involved in this need any protection from the law or the press if they really step out of line. But, all I’ve seen from Tesla from day one is a genuine attempt to produce a product that will do what it says on the can. Personally, I’m not 100% convinced about anthropogenic global warming but I do think it’s a good idea to get away from oil and to offer the public more efficient methods of getting around. If this is a good step in that direction I’d like to see it succeed. In any new company with a new product in a new market you are going to get some mistakes and some degree of disappointment in the final product. But to attempt to destroy confidence in the honesty of the participants based on minor discrepancies which have been openly discussed and explained is intellectually dishonest. You call the car vapourware. Presumably you’ve taken the trouble to read about the 20 or so prototypes which have been made and tested exhaustively here in England, some of which have been crashed to establish safety standards. They’ve been up to the frozen north to make sure that the car performs in those trying conditions. Unless you have some evidence that all of this is just lies produced to fool gullible souls like me you have a hell of a nerve calling the car vapourware. Tesla themselves are unlikely to argue with you because it wouldn’t be in their interests to be drawn into a pissing match on their own site but I don’t like to see you get away with dissing them all with nobody answering back. If you have any proof of financial irregularity or of any attempt to gull the public in any way just come out with it. Talking of which, none of the investors in this company are little old ladies. I’m not sure that anybody reading this blog is really calling out for advice from a former securities analyst to protect them from the likes of Elon Musk. So, give us a break and please go back to writing to the New York Times, at least until you get your facts straight.
Charles Pluckhahn,
You began your first post stating (not implying or inferring) that Silicon Valley start-ups LIE to get customers and funding, so don’t back-pedal and state that you aren’t accusing Tesla and other Silicon Valley start-ups of deception and greed. Further, you accuse journalists of mindlessly hyping the claims of Silicon Valley start-ups without critical review.
I agree that history and human nature yields the consistent results of products failing to meet the expectations claimed by start-up companies. The obvious reason for this, is that start-up companies are developing new, cutting edge products, against which, there is no history or comparison. Neither those who should know (in the start-up company), nor the journalists who know even less, can give you anything more than the theoretical expectation of performance, until working prototypes are produced.
To claim any prescience that the performance of products from start-up companies will be less than early claims, is akin to divining that “Tomorrow, the sun will rise in the East and set in the West.”
Jason M. Hendler ,
“Other than some multi-millionaire / billionaire Democrats in the Senate, who are the rich controlling our federal government?”
That is a very good question, you should think about that some more. Actually you already answered that:
“… Oil companies … the political / economic power these corporations have..” and “…undermining the military industrial complex…”
Billionaires don’t usually need to involve themselves publicly in politics. Ever heard of “campaign contributions” and “lobbyists” and “PAC’s” ? Why does the press not report on whats being said at the annual meetings at the B o h e m i a n G r o v e and B i l d e r b e r g e r s ? Nothing interesting or important? The private owners of the central bank can effect policy by removing the air you breathe.
“…Fortunately, we live under a system of free market capitalism,…” Fortunately, if they had any more freedom the “free market capitalists” would dump raw sewage down your throat, charge for it, pay you 3 cents an hour for a 12 hour work-day, and command that you act “happy”, or else throw you in a corporate run jail. Freedom is always relative, corporations which are formed to eliminate personal responsibility (gasp!) and are best kept on a very short leash. Oligarchy is not democracy, and most democratic states sports more than two parties. Naming the two parties “Democrats” and “Republican” in a nominally democratic state is just precious. What else should they call themselves? Perhaps “the Corporate do-boys” or “the PAC-lackey’s” ?
The absence of plug-in EV’s is, and has been, a political issue. The technology has existed for a loong time, in some form, and its further development has been suppressed by the oil interests and could very well have been funded by DOE and other government agencies working for publics interest.
Just like the cia-employees get regular polygraph checkups so should the politicians. They got nothing to hide, right?
More responses.
1. I caught the typo on Mr. Musk’s name after I posted. There’s no edit function here. Yawn. Going after people for typographical errors is the last refuge of desperation in an argument. I hereby stipulate that I make copy editing mistakes from time to time. So shoot me.
2. On the magnitude of the cut in the range claim, I’m going by Tesla’s promises. First it was 250 miles, now it’s 200. That’s a 20% cut. “Actual results may vary.” If this was the only wrinkle in the story, it would be barely worth mentioning. But it’s one of several changes to the story. As a former analyst, I know that negative changes to a start-up operation’s story are red flags.
3. I don’t know if anyone’s out to rip off anyone else. You’ve imputed that accusation to me, but I never made it. The distinct possibility, and more likely in my view, is that this is a story of too much confidence and too little competence. It happens all the time: Just look at the Iraq War, for example. As for lying, well, of COURSE no one ever tells lies in Silicon Valley. What happens is everyone convinces each other to buy into preposterous stories because no one in the meetings wants to say, “Um, excuse me, this is ridiculous.” So, let’s just say that, in colloquial terms, Telsa’s performance thus far has put the lie to its press releases of 2007. Perhaps 2008 and 2009 will bring vindication, but I won’t be holding my breath and thankfully not my wallet either.
4. Until the car is delivered to real customers as a final product, I consider it vaporware. An old boss of mine used to call them “plototypes.” You say to-MAY-to, I say to-MAH-to, my boss said zucchini. Whatever we call them, the cars aren’t delivered yet, and that’s a fact. It’s also a fact that Tesla doesn’t know when they’ll be delivered, and that the cars it does deliver will not meet the original specs. No other car company could ever dream of doing this to its customers and surviving. Could you imagine BMW telling you to take this car with a bum transmission, and as soon as we figure out how to make a good tranny we’ll put one in for free?
5. I understand that the investors aren’t little old ladies. They are Silicon Valley venture capitalists who bought into a set of PowerPoints. Trust me, I weep not for them. Don’t tell anyone, but I’m having a chuckle at their expense, which I’m sure means that I will roast in hell. But we already knew that.
6. I don’t write for the New York Times. I wrote TO the New York Times. Whose writer told me to use more honey. Vinegar gets in the way of press releases disguised as articles.
7. It’s nice to know that Telsa’s initial claims were nothing but “theoretical expectation of performance.” Now you tell us! As I wrote earlier, you can get away with that in brand new industries, but not in the car business. The fact that it’s an electric car might lead some people to give them more wiggle room than I would, but I still think they’re competing in a market characterized by far higher expectations than the PowerPoint jockeys of Silicon Valley are accustomed to.
8. I was telling a friend who’s a principal in a fast-growing new company about Tesla and its Silicon Valley roots. His comment was priceless: “Maybe they should see if they can get computers right before they try to make a car.”
9. We can argue here forever, but the bottom line is whether or not Tesla delivers automobiles that do what Tesla said they would do, and does so at a profit. My suspicion is that Tesla will lose a lot of money on whatever cars it delivers in ‘08 and ‘09, and that it will be hoping to sell its “intellectual property” to one of the majors. In spite of everything I’ve written, I’d like to see them succeed. But wishing does not make it so. Please, Tesla, make me eat my cynical, heartless, horrible, and, worst of all, uncharitable words. I’m posting here to give you a kick in the rear end, but it is nevertheless a kick forward.
For all those who were ready to create 3rd party suppliers of RE’s, I will throw you a bone. Were I you, I would be creating a 3rd party approach to converting the Chevy Volt into an all electric vehicle, perhaps with rapid-recharge battery technology.
I see lots of negative comments about the possibility of an REEV OPTION for future Tesla’s. As an earlier posts points out it is mentioned as an OPTION. If you don’t want it, don’t buy it. For many people, battery only capabilities are a real limitation with today’s available production technology. For what, a mantra? That makes no sense. Now, if their ulitimate goal is only 10,000 cars/yr for White Star then it may be an unneccessary distraction depending on what specs they can expect to achieve with a BEV version of it. Elon states “The overarching Tesla Motors goal remains unchanged from the day that I first funded Tesla (see the Secret Tesla Master Plan), which is to do everything possible to increase the number of electric miles driven.” The more REEV’s and BEV’s the sooner the better. And it’s not just about electric miles driven. It’s “plugs on the road” just as importantly. Where plugs go, outlets will follow. With easily available outlets ubiquitous, all BEV’s become more practical to more people. As far as an REEV being a distraction. There might be some validity to this, but they are talking about a generator not an ICE drivetrain. Also, remember the design team for the White Star was setup in Detroit. Incorporating an ICE shouldn’t be an issue for this team. BUT…the more I think about it, the more logical it would be to NOT incorporate the generator into the vehicle. I know the idea of a towed ICE was dismissed early in the Tesla blogs. Much of the reasoning was attributed to JB Strubel’s 1/2 VW Bug pusher. Although that was quite an accomplishment for an individual, it should have no bearing on the viability of a generator in tow.
Benefits of Integral & External REEV:
-Range
-Lower initial cost (potentially smaller battery pack for those with shorter everyday range needs)
-Better cost proposition for future upgradability
-Other uses for generating capacity (primarily home backup power now, maybe V2G in the future)
-Faster path to more electric miles for those consumers that 200 miles range and 3 hours recharge will not fullfill their needs
Drawbacks mentioned for REEV:
-Lost focus (not if generator developed by another company)
-Excess time to market (perhaps if smaller or modular battery packs part of design but Tesla is well served to do this RE or no RE)
-Safety and crash tests will be more complicated, passengers have to be protected from batteries, and engine, and gas tank.
-New battery technology will soon make the REEV obsolete anyway (when? White Star is being designed now)
-Tesla will become a “me too” company (because of a proposed Chevy vs. a high performance Tesla sedan?)
-More complexity (only minimally to Tesla if external RE developed by another company)
Benefits specific to External only REEV:
-More space, less weight, and better efficiency for normal driving
-no additional regulatory issues vehical
-no internal integration issues
-shorter time and/or less work to bring to market with 3rd part external ICE generator
-Simpler to coordinate with 3rd party ICE generator manufacturer than internal
-More viable as a rental for occasional trips
Drawbacks of external REEV:
-perhaps more costly than internal
-less practical and more complicated than internal
-more exposed to damage and theft than internal
It is true that a trailer mounted genertor would have a more limited market than an internal one, but the other RE issues that have been raised are mitigated or not valid. That is why I’m supporting modular battery packs (or at least different size options) and a trailer RE option. The modular (or smaller) battery option not only makes the REEV option affordable but it also offers a more affordable option for the BEV only consumer that has no need for 200+ mile range. For me, the best solution is a REEV with 120 Mile battery, external RE, and V2House capability. If I wasn’t in a hurricane prone are then a RE capable BEV would be my purchase and I’ld rent the RE when needed.
Hi Charles,
Here’s my quote:
So, give us a break and please go back to writing to the New York Times, at least until you get your facts straight.
And here’s yours:
6. I don’t write for the New York Times. I wrote TO the New York Times. Whose writer told me to use more honey. Vinegar gets in the way of press releases disguised as articles.
I didn’t say you wrote FOR the New York Times, I said you wrote TO the New York Times. You really don’t do detail do you Charles. At least I did you the courtesy of reading your comments carefully and responding to what was written or implied. And by the way, Caps Lock is for teenagers isn’t it? My eyesight is quite good. I can see little letters.
You really can’t have this both ways. If you insist that the car is vapourware then the directors of the company should be locked up as they would clearly be ripping somebody off.
Getting down to the nitty gritty, which bit of the Tesla do you think is preposterous or ridiculous? Is it the 0-60 in 4 seconds or the mileage? Which bit of what they promised should they not have promised given the technical information they had at that time? The 250 miles was a little ambitious but given the final result of a likely EPA validated 220 miles it wasn’t too far out and it is leagues ahead of anything on offer from the major manufacturers or from any other electric vehicle manufacturer. The 0-60 in 4 seconds claim is also bang on target given that the Tzero has been producing those sorts of times for some years and the Tesla is a very similar concept. If they hadn’t had the bad luck with the gearbox suppliers that has been well aired in these blog pages we’d be seeing Teslas on the roads right now, producing the performance that was promised. For a new company with a groundbreaking concept that isn’t too shabby. I just don’t get why you’ve jumped into the fray right now when they are clearly on the cusp of delivering the goods. You must be really confident that they are going to fail as otherwise you’re going to look kinda silly aren’t you?
On one thing I have to concede you’re right. BMW probably couldn’t get away with fitting an interim transmission until the final version was ready. I don’t think any of Tesla’s, so far, loyal buyers are under the impression that they are dealing with a BMW or a GM here. Most of them are realistic enough to know that this is a tiny company alongside those giants. Of course the car won’t have the thoroughness of development made possible by huge budgets and huge guaranteed sales for millions of vehicles. Hands up all those who really thought this was a giant car company with all those resources. In this world Tesla is very much the underdog. I’d always heard that while we British usually root for the underdog in a fight many Americans like to see the established big guys win every fight. Maybe that’s why Charles and I can’t get along.
Anyway, I’m glad to hear you say that you want Tesla to succeed even if I think everything you have written is more likely to lead to them losing sales, if anybody is listening. If I ever think of starting a company in the States I’ll make sure I buy the very best crystal ball first so that any claims I make will be 100% accurate from day one to avoid pissing off analysts.
Here is an article on the Chevy Volt fuel cell variant:
www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1231
Convergence is happening, it will be interesting to see the final mix - plug in, fuel cell, gasoline / alcohol / bio-diesel / compressed air range extender ….
Andrew, I stand corrected and to to/for. I’ll even go further and write the three rarest words in the English language. “I was wrong.” About that, anyway.
Tesla is not “on the cusp of delivering the goods.” Tesla says it will soon deliver a car that will do some of what Tesla promised it would do. If they were, say, Maserati, they wouldn’t dare try. I mention Maserati because they make a fantastic $100K sportscar. I’ve test-driven it. If it weren’t for Seattle’s congestion and my woeful speeding history in my other too-powerful cars, I probably would have it sitting in my garage right now. The other reason I mention Maserati is because Tesla promised a car that would beat that Maserati, and now they’re not going to deliver it and frankly they don’t know when the hell they will.
I do want Tesla to succeed, but if they don’t succeed I plead loudly and proudly, at the very top of my lungs, “NOT GUILTY.” I’m not the one who made promises I couldn’t keep. We all think we’re sophisticated these days, but how different are we from the Greeks who would kill the messenger who delivered the bad news?
I’ve wanted an electric car for years. If I had $100 for every time I’ve read about the breakthrough that is two years away, I’d have enough to toss $100K at Tesla as an afterthought. Really, I hope they succeed. Even more than that, I hope the other high-tech companies out there who are talking about electric cars that the middle class can afford will succeed. We need electric cars. But to need something is not to have it, and to promote it before you have it is kind of obnoxious. It only fuels hardened, hell-bound cynics like me.
OK Charles, let’s have a New Year truce. Everybody’s bored with us now anyway. I can well understand why you want to ‘beware of geeks bearing gifts’….and that isn’t a typo! Tesla might fail….my crystal ball isn’t good enough to tell me one way or the other. They’ve made some big mistakes. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde ‘to lose one transmission supplier is unfortunate but to lose two looks like carelessness’. I just hope that they can recover from all this and get their car on the road and I hope you buy one instead of the Maserati, however great I may think that car is. I don’t know if you have a background in engineering or manufacturing, but I doubt it. If you did I think you would be more understanding of Tesla’s failings. What they are trying to do is really hard and to predict what they are going to achieve with any great accuracy, well in advance, is even harder. I just want to give them the best chance possible and cut them a little slack unless and until they are shown to have deliberately misled anybody. When they are the size of a BMW or a GM or a VW we can hold them to the same high standards but right now they aren’t even the size of Lotus, which is itself an insignificant car producer in world terms. Please give them that little bit of wiggle room you mentioned in an earlier post. They’re trying to play with the big boys now and it really isn’t easy.
Charles Pluckhahn,
The reason that Tesla can fall short of performance specifications, when an existing auto manufacturer, like Maserati, could not, is that Tesla is ALL ALONE as a provider of high performance / stylish ELECTRIC vehicles. Your attempts to hold Tesla to a Maserati standard are therefore bogus. Once Tesla delivers ANY vehicle at any performance level, it will be THE benchmark for all other manufacturers, which they will have to meet, or yield market share to Tesla.
I suspect you are just trying to scare Tesla into not delivering anything, hoping that NO transmission ever appears that meets the original spec. In the end, Tesla will deliver Roadsters, and they will retrofit to BETTER transmissions, whether those transmissions meet the original spec or not. Tough luck, Tesla is moving forward in spite of you.
andrew, happy new year to you, too. No slashing sarcasm there, honest. I think we’ve vented and made the rubble bounce a couple of times anyway. It would be great if Tesla could make a liar out of me and produce that sub-4 second electric sportscar. If it goes 225 miles on a charge instead of 250, fine. I know it’s not easy to build a car. Hell, it’s not even easy to repair one. I can’t remember the last time I changed my own oil.
Jason, if I can truly scare Tesla Motors into not delivering anything, then we’ll all know that our worst suspicions were true. Even the rat in Ratatouile (nice little movie, by the way) wasn’t too scared to serve a meal to Anton Ego, and that was just animation. The transmission? Well, look at it this way: Tesla is trying to make cars the way Microsoft makes software. Deliver an inferior product and then promise “upgrades.” If they can get away with it I’ll admire their chuztpah, anyhow. Maybe they should go all the way and rename the car. How do you think Vista sounds?
Elon - This technical and commercial development gives great hope to millions of people worldwide, concerned by transport’s contribution to global warming.
The Tesla car cannot come soon enough.
Cheers
Dr Howard Scott
Guangzhou - China
Charles Pluckhahn,
Didn’t say that you would scare them, just pointing out that you and many other posters are trying to play on engineers’ natural state of analysis paralysis, but it won’t work. I am sure they’ve had to ignore all sorts of critics recommending better / different batteries, motors, etc., and they have always, wisely used what was at hand, instead of banking on an as yet to be discovered technology to beat ICE vehicles in every respect.
Are you seriously referencing Ratatouille as a comparison of how Tesla should respond to your criticism? As for renaming their product, it was sheer genius for them to brand their product with the name of the most renowned scientist in the field of electro-magnetics, instantly endearing them to the whole technical community, so they don’t need any input from you on branding / marketing. The Tesla Roadster will be the styling / performance benchmark for the all-electric vehicle market for the next few years, and for high mileage vehicles for the next couple years, regardless of whether it makes or falls short of its intended specs.
Jason, I’m not offering anyone any marketing or branding advice. My advice is much simpler than that: Make the promises you can keep, and keep the promises you make. I realize that “accountability” is a tired concept from the old economy, but then maybe I’m just one of those old economy kind of guys. Well, maybe not. But my wallet is an old-economy kind of wallet. If you want to shell out $100K for an 80% solution, it’s a free market!
When I took down my 2007 calendar, I happened to think what a great addition to your merchandise list a 2008 calendar would be. I know it’s a little late, but hey, there’s always next year.
I’ve been lurking for quite a while. I, now, surface with two (2) comments:
(they apply to the sedan, more than the roadster or economy car)
(1) The REEV concept … at first, I was not very happy. However, as long as it is an ADJUNCT to the same “powerplant” that one would expect as resultant from the Roadster, well … fine. If I want to plan to drive to Autsin from Dallas, I would just power up and go. If I got into traffic, or sidetracked or whatnot, a third-party ICE source of power would have to be there, for my own piece of mind and, perhaps, for safety. For the drive around the metroplex, it is battery only.
(2) I have (currently) an E350. Loaded, this car is just shy of $60K. I don’t have a bit of problem going $15K up, as long as:
- the car is luxury … not luxury wannabe
- the car is put together well. I expect Benz quality from Benz price. Enviro-friendly does not justify Hyundai quality
- the car is reliable (we can rehash the whole transmission thing …. aww, let’s not)
and
- the car looks nice. I’m sorry, but it has to look as nice as a 5-series or an E-series or Lexus or (__ fill in the blank __)
That’s my two cents worth.
My lease ends in June of 2010. Wonder what the odds are ….
WJ
Dallas, Texas
Elon,
I was hoping that you could not be bought out by the major auto, oil and governments that have a vested interest in your failure. When I read between the lines of your reassurance above, i see that you still want more money and will sell out if they make you an offer beyond your expectations. I was hoping the 1.5 Billion ebay paid you for paypals would make you bullet proof the big oil. But we have yet to see if this is the case? I sincerely hope I am wrong. about your vunerability.
My nephew was involved with a company called US electric cars. The owner of US electric cars company went to the auto company and told them they would produce an electric car to help meet the green house emission quotas they had to adhere to by government mandates. The auto company ignored them, so they started buying cars directly from the major auto companies, pulling the engines and replacing them with electric engine and providing them to local governments. I told my nephew that he would be out of a job in a few months because the auto industry would either produce enough electric cars to distroy his company of buy him out directly. They did the latter and ran the company in the ground A few months after my nephew was working with the company they sold it to an unknow company and they immediately started laying off workers and retooling and the business disappeared.
I had hopes that someone like you with money and integrity would pull the petro needle out of our arms long enough for us to regain clarity of mind and purpose.so we could see beyond petro transportation. However, I guess I am still a bit too naive in believing there are still some people that don’t have a price. For the real price will not only be our future but our children and the animals we are suppose to protect on this planet
I know this email will probably be dismissed for I am insignificant and inconsequential to any of your endeavors but as a citizen of this planet, again I must hope that my suspicion of your letter of reassurance is wrong.
Gary Robnson
Are you planning to make the Tesla available in the UK? I read on the website that the assembly of the Tesla is in the UK, so would seem to make sense to make it available here too…would be one way to avoid high fuel costs and congenstion charges.
Gary,
Worst case, GM is now developing the Chevy Volt, an “extended-range electric vehicle”, which 3rd parties can buy to convert to all electric, so I see electric vehicles being widely available in a couple years, in addition to Tesla and Fisker.
Dear Tesla,
After listening to your 3 Town Hall recordings about your transmission durability problems, it reminds me of my days at Ford in the mid 90’s. They were changing their coolant to the new environmentally friendly form. The problem was that it was a mild organic acid that ate their engine gaskets resulting in complete engine failure. They tested a few cars and noticed no failures but statistical mathematicians advised them they needed to run the tests with hundreds of cars, preferably with the corporate pool cars through the seasons. They chose not, to save money. They then decided, after much internal debate to test 2 dozen cars with crews driving day and night around the country. No problems for the first 30K miles but once they reached 50K boom. The engines needed redesigning or new gaskets were needed at a significant cost to timing.
Recommendation — Run as many cars as long as you can to test the vehicles. A 5% failure may seem small but the negative Press of it all will eat you alive. That’s why Ford Motor has “motor” in their name !
Best
Oops, forgot to mention another drawback to trailer RE: aerodynamic drag liability.
Go for the options!
David, you weren’t actually suggesting that Tesla have its $100,000 sportscar tow a trailer, were you?
p.s.: Speaking of vapor cars, how about the “Mini-CAT”? It runs on compressed air, and allegedly is going to be available in Europe by the end of the year for $7,500. For one Tesla I could buy a 12-pack of those things. Check it out: aircar.com.
I wasn’t really thinking of the Roadster, Charles. Elon mentioned RE versions for future Tesla models and I was assuming this was aimed more to the White Star, etc but… If they make the RE a trailer option then it really wouldn’t be a big deal to incorporate this as an option for the roadster too as long as the trailer weight is resonable. What would it take? Basically a hitch, rear plug, and control software. The owner wouldn’t even have to buy the RE. I think it would make sense for Tesla to make these available as rentals as well as purchases. Do you see harm in a Los Angelos Roadster owner being able to take his roadster on a weekend wine country tour without having to worry about the availability of a plug at the places he would like to stay?
I’m with Martin Eberhard on this….I think Tesla should sell EVs, period. No trailer!!!!! and no REEV option. The second Tesla starts to sell vehicles with Range Extenders it comes into direct sales competition with GM, Volvo, Honda, Lexus and who knows how many other experienced car companies by the time they have it on the market. I don’t foresee a good end to that competition. If somebody chooses to do an aftermarket hack that’s their privilege but Tesla’s USP is that it is the only EV manufacturer that is also a serious car manufacturer with proper crash testing and a highway capable car with decent range for an EV. This isn’t a huge market but it’s a market they can own and that will grow rapidly as battery technology improves.
##Charles Pluckhahn wrote on January 5th, 2008 at 1:44 am
p.s.: Speaking of vapor cars, how about the “Mini-CAT”? It runs on compressed air, and allegedly is going to be available in Europe by the end of the year for $7,500. For one Tesla I could buy a 12-pack of those things. Check it out: aircar.com.
I was checking out that air car yesterday Charles. Unless I’m much mistaken, it seems the current car only gets to about 7 miles before it conks out. I’m sure they can improve on that but have you heard the car? It sounds like a fairground ride and it doesn’t look much better. I know you weren’t seriously considering one but really you can’t talk about it in the same breath as a Tesla. Even so I wouldn’t call that car vapourware. They have working prototypes and it looks to me like a genuine attempt at a different solution. I don’t like it but I think it’s honest at least. I’d rather have one Tesla than 12 of them though, even with just one gear in the box!
Andrew,
I don’t agree that adding a range extender to a Tesla puts them in direct competition with GM, etc. First of all, GM et al only go 40-50 miles max on a charge, where Tesla gets over 200 miles. Moreover, Tesla may offer a range extender of a different type than a gasoline or diesel ICE (hydrogen fuel cell, compressed air, auxiliary battery pack, etc.). These aspects would significantly differentiate Tesla from the pack.
David, I’m not even going to argue with you about trailers. I’m just going to laugh at you. Andrew, I’m not sure which car I want, because neither of them exist. Prototypes might as well be kept on the moon along with the press releases about them, for all I care. No, I haven’t actually heard the air car. Does it hiss? Now just think of those aftermarket possibilities, especially if the car itself goes for only $7,500. I’d trick mine out to sound like a rattlesnake when I’m mad.
Just remember, the average person drives 28 miles a day. It doesn’t have to be a sportscar to win. If it’s cheap and it’s useful and they actually make the product instead of just talk about it like Tesla and rest of Silicon Valley love to do, they’ll really have something. There’ll be a certain poetic justice if it’s made in India. Maybe someone will eventually hire people in Michigan and even San Jose to do the customer service, and then complain that no one in Banglaore can understand them.
Charles,
Here is the correct website for the aircar. It is made in / for India, but available for export.
www.theaircar.com/
Charles, it sounds like an IC engine but with one or two plugs missing. I think, as usual, that you’re being unecessarily harsh on Tesla. This air car has been in development for even longer as far as I know and is further away from being ready for prime time than the Tesla is. Did you ever get your fingers burned investing in some silicon valley project? I ask that just because you seem to be really obsessive about how unreliable these guys are. Hardly a post goes by without you mentioning it again and it just seems unfair to lump all these people in silicon valley together as if they were an amorphous mass. Like everywhere else you must have good guys and bad guys there. I have no brief for silicon valley and they’re your people more than mine, but it seems to me they deliver on their promises about as often as everybody else. Again you say that Tesla are just talking about it but, if you have read this site carefully, you know that the car has been extensively tested in every way and if it weren’t for one serious, ongoing problem with the transmission it would be on the road by now and performing up to spec. What did you want them to do, launch the car with the problem unsolved? That is more or less what they’ve been forced to do by customer pressure I would think but, as you point out, most manufacturers would never get away with it. They would delay the launch until the car was ready. If Tesla delayed their launch any further you would cite that as evidence that the car was vapourware. So it seems you really do want it both ways. We’re all impatient for this to happen but its failure to happen according to schedule doesn’t mean that the car is vapour or that there is any attempt at deception. It’s just a real engineering problem that has to be solved and takes time.
Jason, who knows what other manufacturers will eventually put on the market. As the technology develops they’ll change their plans to suit. As far as the general public is concerned a car with an electric motor and a petrol, diesel or bio-fuel engine is some kind of hybrid. Most aren’t going to be very interested in the details. When Tesla build their Range Extended car (Whitestar maybe) there will be a huge temptation for them to save money on batteries to keep the price down to compete with Volt et al. There goes your 200 miles because they’ll say you don’t need it as you now have a range extender. Other car companies have good engineers too. Why would only Tesla be able to come up with the best solution? They should stick to EVs where most of the major companies will leave them alone and they can build up sales and a following that will gradually increase as batteries improve.
Beyond Tomorrow video about the air car here. www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmqpGZv0YT4
Listen to that sucker roar Charles. The presenter is having to speak up to be heard over it. Actually I have nothing against this technology in principle. If it can be made to work reliably for longer distances and they can somehow silence it, it looks like a good idea. As a project for cars for Europe or the States I think it still has a long way to go. There’s no mention of airbags or crash testing or all that other expensive and time-consuming work that Tesla has already done to get its car approved for sale.
They should find a light, existing car where crash testing etc has all been done already and adapt their technology to that to get a short cut to the market. Either that or they have a low-speed city car, or an NEV as you call them, on their hands but not a proper solution for most drivers.
Andrew,
Yes, the piston air car engine was noisy, but a tuned muffler and noise dampening engine mounts are an easy solution to that. Loved the video of the rotary air engine - that could make an extremely light generator as a range extender with a compressed air tank.
So everybody is surprised that the Tesla is backing away from an all electric vehicle…. There have been many many many other alternative fuel options to power the automobile in the past and the oil business has just called him up and made him an offer ……he could not refuse. Even a billionaire can’t mess with the fundamental economics of this planet. The financial structure of the planet is based …on oil. Unfortunately I don’t think anything will change that short of a space ship from another planet landing at the Super Bowl. …Then again that would probably just prompt a nuclear explosion and we would be told it was terrorists…. Think about it.
Tracy Lovett
Laugh away Jason. I suppose laughter is a form of bliss. I’ll assume that if you had something intelligent to add, we would here it. Bashfullness does not appear to be your short suit.
Andrew, it makes sense that Tesla would offer shorter battery ranges with the REEV but it would make no sense for them to do away with longer battery ranges. I would expect them to have smaller battery packs as options along with the RE. This also would make baterry only versions more affordable for those that only want a neighborhood vehicle. Why pay for 200 mile range when 100 mile will do?
Andrew, you can’t mistake me for anyone’’s p.r. agent, including the air car company. I’m kinda sorta interested in it, just like I’m kinda-sorta interested in that company in Southern California with the electric car that kinda-sorta looks like a Jetsons car with wheels. What unites those two companies and Tesla is that they’ve spent a nice, hefty chunk of the venture money on a p.r. firm to go place half-baked press releases into the media.
I’m not the friendliest guy in the world toward that sort of thing, to put it mildly. The high-tech crowd generally sees the media as something to be manipulated, and the financial system as something to be exploited, and taxes as something to be avoided, the senior-most peoples’ wallets as something to be fattened, and the customers as idiots who’ll always come back for more. Which makes them typical business people, I suppose. I’m just doing everyone the favor of noticing and commenting on it.
As for Silicon Valley, well, let’s just say that I have a love-hate relationship with that neck of the woods. But I come by it honestly and relatively impersonally, which is to say that it’s not as a result of having a speculation go bad. In other words, no, I’m not grinding a personal axe and I don’t live in a rubber room or wear tin-foil on my head. Just call ‘em like I see ‘em, and feel no need to be the cheerleader for Tesla Motors just because they told everyone what everyone wanted to hear and then didn’t deliver the goods.
Good God, no, I wouldn’t ever suggest that Tesla launch their car with a bad transmission. Only General Motors can get away with that kind of thing, or at least they used to be able to. What I want Tesla to do is make a liar out of me and deliver a $100K electric sportscar that will go 0-60 in less than 4 seconds, with a 250-mile range. Anything less counts against ‘em. How much depends on how much less.
See my last name? Andrew, I come from a long line of cheap Germans. If it doesn’t work, it’s never a bargain.
I am driving a 1998 car. I refuse to buy another i.c.e. car. I need a four passenger car and will try to wait. The roadster is so exciting that I may not.
Thanks to all the good people at Tesla for doing what Detroit and big oil will not do. Plug-in electrics will save the world and just might save the US economy.
How do we go about stopping the insane expenditures on hydrogen and fuel cells?
Great read!
David,
Not sure what post you are referring to, with respect to my laughter. Perhaps it would be better if you included my quotes into your posts.
You are correct that Tesla would probably offer a lower battery range vehicle with an RE at a lower price, and an a long rnage battery vehicle with no RE at a higher price. I suspect the all electric vehicle would still sell well, while the RE vehicle would sell more.
Okay Charles, I see where you’re coming from, but I still think you’re demanding an impossibly high standard of predictive ability from the Tesla crowd and specifically Martin…no longer with them of course….who was responsible for most of the early promises I guess. How much did they miss by? We don’t know yet because the car isn’t on the road, but my best guess, based on what I’m reading here and elsewhere, is that they aren’t going to miss by much. The range is a little down (but less than 10% not the 20% that we were threatened with) but apart from that the car looks like producing the goods pretty much as promised. It’s very late being delivered, of course, but we all know the reason for that and I personally don’t expect any hidden skeletons to jump out of the closet. So, to me, they missed on one engineering thing…range ….and not by very much. And on the schedule, by quite a lot, but for well-explained reasons.
David and Jason. Guys, don’t fall out over this. The quote David was referring to was this one by Charles:
Charles Pluckhahn wrote on January 5th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
David, I’m not even going to argue with you about trailers. I’m just going to laugh at you.
He just got mixed up over who said it……
I wondered how long it would take you to notice!!!
If you have Transmission problems, why don’t you couple two Three phase induction motors in-line or with persistent mechanical gear link, one for low rpm and the other for high rpm, I understand that motors are light weight and of small size, still very powerful, in that way you would eliminate need for transmission mechanism completely?
Wow. I saw the next blog and kind of left the comments on this one for dead….looks like a lot has gone on. So…here’s my redux of what just happened (it was funny!) and some commentary:
1)Jason quickly responded to my last post with the usual pattern of a)denying everything he said before, b)restating his complete misconceptions of Hydrogen and biofuels, and c)making up the numbers along the way. My response (I promise I’ll make this one quick): None of your justifications for Hydrogen (that we should “let the market decide” while the few H2 proponents manipulate it, that the government needs it for taxes (!) and security, that it’s actually cheap) make any sense. I would just love to see your source on this outrageous claim that these vehicles’ prices are going to drop from millions to normal-car prices with no changes other than increased volume. And while I’m at it, if you think biofuels produce the same emissions as fossil fuels from any meaningful perspective, you still haven’t pulled your head out. And since you obviously ignored it the first time, biodiesel production using modern methods IS NOT slash-and-burn agriculture, not that you know anything about that either.
2)That discussion was of course quickly overshadowed by the increasingly-shrill yammerings of Jason and CRS (btw, does that handle refer to an inability to remember one’s halibut?) which took a strange turn down political craziness lane. Conspiracy theories abounded. Lets see here…the “greens” (which seemed to me to be more-encompassing than members of the Green party…I could be wrong but I took it to mean all of us on a large swath of the left) are according to Jason involved in a vast conspiracy, using global warming as a ploy to reduce the power of the oil companies who oppose the “communist/fascist” state they desire. So this leads me to several questions: What’s a “communist/fascist” state? (Just to clue you both in, Fascism is not just another word for authoritarianism. That’s your only clue, go look it up.) And isn’t this a bit of an indirect way to establish such a state? Also, did you not get the memo about how it is now far too late to be able to deny climate change as a hoax? This display could just be dismissed as an anomaly if it weren’t for the counterpoints which ensued with CRS. Unfortunately I think you are each about as dangerous as the other. CRS whines about how democracy is a sham and the corporations own the government. Jason thinks they should, and complains that there is any opposition to them at all. Of course it’s someplace in between…yes, obviously corporate/economic interests have always had large influence in American politics…and every other politics in history. Democracy, however, does reduce it greatly, and we work regularly to diminish it further (campaign finance reform, anyone?). This is a Good Thing, as corporations are not designed to care for anyone but shareholders, and governments are designed to care for all constituents…it is a fallacy to say “the capitalists” do everything while government just slothfully wastes our stolen taxes, which is Jason’s (and the classical Libertarian) position. This denies us rural electrification, clean air and water, lead free paint, our incredible land-grant universities, and much else of tremendous value. And it ignores the unbelievable injustices inflicted by corporations when they’re too loosely regulated. I dare you to go work for Shell oil in Camaroon…now there’s a place where the corporations run the government. On the other hand, CRS, you cross the line when you call the U.S. Constitution a “train wreck.” It is no such thing. It is a remarkable living document that forms the bedrock of a very successful government. It shows its age to be sure, but it is actively edited and reinterpreted and works remarkably well, and furthermore it provided and still provides an example for many, many other nations that has benefited billions of people the world over. Nobody gets it right all the time, the U.S. included; focus on the specific things we’re getting wrong, and don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. Bad-mouthing the Constitution is an affront to the whole of Western political thought and tradition.
(Sorry for the long soap-box there, but that really riled me up.)
3)This wild-eyed fringe-politics showdown was interrupted by the sheer rudeness of Charles Pluckhahn. Many thanks to Andrew Kelsey for mostly putting him in his place. It’s hard to say what Charles really dislikes so much about Tesla. I agree wholeheartedly with Andrew that Charles’ few nitpicks don’t add up at all to his central charge that the company is lying/scamming and won’t deliver the product. (Which, by the way, I see you repeated (”instead of just talk about it like Tesla and rest of Silicon Valley love to do”) shortly after you denied having said it. Did you think we just wouldn’t remember?) I did want to mention the changes to the EPA highway cycle this past year which everyone seems to be ignoring…pretty much all the gas cars out there dropped a few mpg as well, so it’s not like this was that surpising. Want to holler about that? And I wanted to stress that these comparisons with the big motor companies (”GM would never get away with delivering something not to spec” etc.) miss the fact that the big motor companies would never have told us the projected specs in the first place. They would simply not have said anything until it was basically ready to ship, and then given more-or-less final specs. And yeah, then they darn well better get them right. Tesla has said from day 1 (your recent “now you tell me” crack notwithstanding…they told everyone before you just weren’t listening) that they were being open with their best numbers throughout the whole process and that they might change. When they did change, they told us. This is a much more open process than the big motor companies use, and your complaints basically just punish Tesla for that openness. This is wrong; we should be supporting this sort of thing, not complaining about all the ugly details it allowed us to see. So anyway, Charles, to recap, you won’t stick to a position, you pick up any nitpick you can find, you hold Tesla to a standard that the big companies don’t even show up to be held to, and you accuse them of dishonesty out of one side of your face while you deny doing it from the other. The only common thread here is that all your positions are anti-Tesla. You can say you’d like them to succeed all you want (especially right after you say you are laughing at their expense) but we know the score. You’re a troll.
That’s it folks; tip your waitresses.
Hunter.
Hunter,
Should I be flattered that you spent more than sixty percent of your epic post on me? I made no denials of previous statements, and merely clarified why the federal government would want to support hydrogen from a security / economic standpoint, not why I or any consumer should want it, just so people understand the real forces driving the development of that tech. This explanation then lead to the exposure of the anti-corporate / anti-government agenda of those I find railing against hydrogen fuel cell development, as if their choice of BEV should be everyone’s choice, end of story. Actually, if you read “The Book of Isms, 11th Edition”, you will learn the true definition of communism / fascism, which has really nothing to do with the socialist and nationalist motivations for their creation, but everything to do with their common basic structure - the government owns major industries, and sets prices for goods and services. Communists use socialist doctrines to justify owning and controlling industries, while fascists use nationalistic fervor to seize industries, etc. CVS’s desire to seize and control “big oil” betrayed his communist / fascist bent, which I will expose every time it rears its ugly head.
—-
Editor’s Request: How about a renewed effort to stay on topic?
Andrew is correct. Sorry Jason.
To the editor’s point and “The Song Remains the Same”. I wish I were, but can’t say I’m hearing that. The words do remain mostly the same and I do earnestly hope Tesla can continue on the path that has been laid out, but the sound is different. Martin had an eloquent sensibility to his voice that is very uncommon and is greatly missed. Tesla has come so far so fast. II’s hard to believe that the visionary, founder, and CEO for most of it’s existence did not merit enough credit to have earned a significant role in it’s current plans. Tesla may very well stay their path to becoming a significant automotive manufacturer (and I feel it is very important they do) but I believe it will be in spite of Martin not being there. If Tesla Freely wants the gong to remain as close to the same as possible, then bringing “real” content back to this blog would be a good step in that direction. Nearly all of the posts in the last 6 months or so have been “press releases”, marketing candy, or corporate speak. How about an entry about the reasoning behind the decision to include an RE option and Tesla’s vision for how it may be be implemented or a White Star update? I know Teslans are extremely busy, but I think you generate a lot of good will in this blog that is worth the price.
Andrew, you asked how much Tesla has missed by. As of now, Tesla has missed by exactly 100 percent. Hunter, yes I’m rude. So was my grade school teacher when I didn’t hand in my homework. Have fun driving those press releases.
David,
Again, not sure what you are referring to with respect to Andrew, please include a quote or more info in your post, so that I don’t misunderstand what you say.
In the audio recordings of the open meeting that Tesla held with customers et al, it was my understanding they support a range extender, because it is consistent with their goal of “increasing the number of electric miles driven”, which suggests they are reviewing RE’s which are ultimately powered by an electric source - fuel cell, compressed air, etc.
If that’s the standard Charles then every company that was ever started missed by 100%, until launch day. If you’re saying every company was just as bad or just as good as Tesla I couldn’t really disagree with that.
Andrew, now it is you who warns the cynic’s hat. I don’t think every company fails to keep its promises. In fact, I think that kind of behavior is the exception to the rule.
Well, now I guess we see the problem. Charles thinks he’s Tesla Motors’ grade school teacher, and is thus in some authority position above them and can justify an aloof, rude, nitpicking attitude. Problem is, he isn’t. He’s just some guy off the street, and his rudeness is inappropriate to his role. It is clear that he doesn’t actually understand the history of Tesla motors and its promises or products, and his loud accusations are thinly backed. Those of us who have actually been paying attention for the last couple years (when they were supposed to have made these alleged broken promises) don’t seem to think Tesla has been dishonest. They have always been totally up-front, and they continue to be in the face of very tough subcontractor holdups. Nobody has gotten or seems likely to get burned. These accusations are groundless.
Jason, this should bring clarity.
Andrew Kelsey wrote on January 8th, 2008 at 10:55 am
David and Jason. Guys, don’t fall out over this. The quote David was referring to was this one by Charles:
Charles Pluckhahn wrote on January 5th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
David, I’m not even going to argue with you about trailers. I’m just going to laugh at you.
He just got mixed up over who said it……
I am very excited to hear that model 2 will be unveiled in the early half of next year.
Watching the political debates on television, I am very thankful for companies like Tesla in the private sector who are really making change.
Hey Charles;
A question for you. You seem to have a beef with the phrase “actual results may very”. The question: all things considered, how can you not reasonably expect results to very in reality even if that phrase hadn’t been stated?
The reason I ask that: I have a friend with a Ford F150, I also have one. My driving style:
a) Obey the speed limit
b) Keep the regular maintenance up
c) Casual driving - in other words, no fast starts, no sudden stops.
His driving style:
a) The speed limit is a suggestion
b) Maintenance is to be done by himself when he feels like it
c) When the light turns green, you floor the gas, if the light is red, you wait until the last possible moment to slam on the brakes
I think we can agree that the driving styles are very different. The end result: My 7 year old F150 has the gas mileage very close to it’s “new” rating. His 5 year old F150 has a gas mileage he likes to rate in “gallons per mile”. Hmm… I think the phrase “actual results may very” is extremely appropriate.
Let’s take another scenario. Let’s say we have the same driving style, but in different geographical locations. So, hypothetical situation, me living in the city where I am - plains geography - vs me living in the Rocky Mountains. I suspect my gas mileage would still be pretty good considering I take care of my vehicle, however the mileage would be below what the EPA certified location rating would show.
Let’s try that concept in relation to the Tesla. Let’s examine the geographic location: well…. the more energy required to move something, the less efficient miles per charge you would have. Basic physics principles indicates it’s easier to roll a tire on a flat surface rather then up an 8% incline, less energy involved. That makes the phrase “actual results may very” appropriate for different geographic locations. So how about driving style? My driving style would indicate a more efficient use of a unit of energy in relation to traction then a driving style with which the individual likes to “burn rubber”. After all, it makes sense that your energy output is most efficiently used when your tires are not slipping on the road.
Based on your other responses, I’ll hypothesis that you’re going to respond to my question with an answer of: “If that’s all the situation were, it would barely be worth noting”. So, with that anticipation of your response, let me touch on something.
Compared with the other “pure electric vehicles” produced by the main automotive industry the Tesla is still a fantastic result. You have compared the Tesla company with others, such as GM, so it’s only reasonable for me to:
“Only General Motors can get away with that kind of thing, or at least they used to be able to.”
The range of the EV1 was about 80 miles if I’m not mistaken, Tesla having reached 200 miles has put the range at almost 2.5 times. I’m not sure why but I believe the EV1 was also fully recalled. Ouch. Will the Tesla be recalled? Only time can tell. How about the recent Chevy Volt? Electric road range: 40 miles. Oops, that one was worse then the EV1. Interesting, the Volt is due to start production in 2010. I guess we’ll find out what the actual range will be. Hmm… Tesla has VIN 1 off the production line and the Volt is due to start in 2010. I think you’re classification of vaporware is more appropriate for the Volt instead of the Tesla.
On that note: just classifying one “mark” for Tesla, 200/250 = 80%. I can’t see how you could classify Tesla Motors at missing 100% when they have a minimum 2.5x the range of other electric vehicles and hit 80% of the actual originally estimated speed.
Just some thoughts. From what I’ve read, it seems you focused on all negative aspects. It would be interesting to see your actual score if you viewed both the pros and cons and then was honest with a rating.
Wow. It is great to see a lot of interest in innovation. But there are some serious misconceptions about electric vehicles.
Tesla seems to be well aware of the reality of physics, though they could do better in explaining some of the basics about science, engineering, and economics. I won’t do much better in this writing format, but I want to at least note some of the key problems.
The greatest area of confusion arises from an attempt to compare electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles in terms of miles per gallon. In spite of my objections, the X Prize people insist on this, and indicate in their draft guideline plans that they will continue to do so. There is not a simple equivalence of electrical energy and thermal energy that comes from burning fuel. Electrical energy converts easily into heat, without loss. But heat does not convert to mechanical or electrical energy without huge loss. Burning of fossil fuels makes heat that is on the wrong side of the second law of thermodynamics; a heat engine is required to make the conversion from heat to electricity. Whether it is an engine in a car or a gas turbine or such in a central power plant, there is still a huge loss. In the USA in 2006 the efficiency of converting heat from fossil fuels of all types into electric energy was 34%. This is about the best that can be expected; automobile engines are quite a lot worse, though diesels are generally the best of these in terms of this efficiency issue. So at best, at least three times as much heat energy is needed to produce a quantity of electric energy.
So when the X Prize people talk of “100 mpge”, the statement should be 33 mpge or less. It is often hard to find out what terms people are actually using when they start promoting their products. As noted earlier, It appears that Tesla has carefully steered clear of such false statements.
Now the protests start. Sure energy might fall from the sky as sunlight or rain or (lets include) wind. The cost of driving a mile is a valid way to make comparisons, but make sure the cost includes interest on the capital invested in the equipment, as well as maintenance and depreciation. Don’t include power company rebates and tax incentives since these come out of somebody’s pocket. And also it should be noted that electricity from the ideal sources is probably spoken for, before the introduction of large numbers of electric cars, charging at night. Charging at night probably means the electricity will come from coal plants which are harder to turn on and off than natural gas fired turbines, and also produce electricity at 2 to 3 cents per kwhr, compared to 8 to 10 cents for natural gas. That is how the electric producers can charge less for electricity used at night.
Then there is the idea that power generation is more efficient in California. Maybe, but take note that Calpine was driven into bankruptcy by being about the best possible producer of electricity that can be imagined.
Now, according to “Wired” magazine, Tesla is not going to compete with their roadster in the X Prize competition due to the carbon emission cap. At least this test forces a more honest mileage test. see
www.wired.com/cars/futuretransport/magazine/16-01/ff_100mpg?currentPage=3
The $50,000 sedan is to be the Tesla contender, though it seems this will have problems.
One problem is that Tesla has not done much with aerodynamics. The Aptera is a much more promising accomplishment in this department. See www.aptera.com. Another concept is www.miastrada.com, which is my project. The Miastrada gives the motorist all the advantages, but does not make him feel puny. Miastrada aerodynamics are the most thoroughly tested of any emerging vehicle.
The economics of Tesla’s plan for REEV make clear sense. They tell us that batteries simply are too costly and problematic to be the sole source of the portable energy. With a modest size auxilliary engine and generator, a tradeoff with battery cost can be made that makes a lot of sense. With an engine and generator available, parked at a typical household, the possibility of cogeneration comes into play. It will probably be too large to qualify as PGE’s “properly sized” equipment. So now it will be necessary to reduce the overall Tesla energy requirement. They do not seem inclined to do this, though the team seems to be capable of some real innovative thinking.
Recapping, it seems that the real mileage is quite different from what people think, so the current Tesla product offerings are not the panacea solution to global warming or oil dependency problems.
Roger, it’s not a “fantastic result” when they don’t even have the car for sale. Do you understand? The car is unavailable! Only in Silicon Valley would anyone ever even think of calling it a fantastic result. Everywhere else on earth, it would be called a failure. It is flatly bizarre to have someone call me “negative” for noticing that the car doesn’t exist. What planet are you people on?
Even if Tesla does deliver cars for sale — prototypes do NOT count — it won’t be a fantastic result if a world-class 0-60 in under 4 sec turns into a pedestrian (for this class) of 5.7 sec until they can figure out how to make one that will do what they originally promised. Also, I am really wondering about the range. That 220 miles is a maximum number. I wonder what it’ll be in actual use by the kind of people who really drive world class sportscars as they were spec’d to be driven.
Maybe they should produce Model 1 to the specs they promised before they work on Model 2.
I think I can boil this down: I’m not a Kool-Aid drinker. Most of the commentary here is from not just Kool-Aid drinkers, but Kool-Aid addicts. Which is a good thing. Have I told you about my new teleporter? I’m taking $50,000 deposits.
Charles, when they get the transmission problem fixed and people are happy with their cars what is your next grouse going to be? I’m guessing it’s going to be mileage, since you’re already setting that up in your recent posts. So, let’s get it out of the way now. Are you going to demand that they still deliver the 250 miles that were originally promised? They have already swallowed that and agreed that it isn’t going to happen and even the 245 miles subsequently calculated has been shown to be a mistake. So we now have an EPA distance of around 220 miles…..it isn’t 100% certain yet as the final testing will have to be done after the gearbox is fixed. Why are you still wondering what the car will do with “the kind of people who really drive world class sportscars as they were spec’d to be driven.”
Tesla have done some road testing and you can read the figures just like anybody else. In case you don’t know where to find them, here they are:
267 miles of conservative urban driving in the suburbs around San Carlos (a best-case scenario)
230 miles from North Lake Tahoe to San Carlos with two occupants plus luggage
227 miles of highway cruising on the I-5 freeway, south of Stockton
222 miles including sporty driving from San Carlos to Santa Cruz via the hilly Skyline Blvd, and highway cruising from Santa Cruz to San Carlos via Hwy 1, San Francisco, and US 101
213, 209 and 203 miles of highway cruising with A/C using I-280, Hwy 85 and US 101
186 miles of aggressive driving on I-280 and the round trip from Woodside to San Gregorio Beach via Hwy 84
165 miles of impatient commuting, aggressive stops and starts, high speeds, and air conditioning on from Saratoga Gap to San Carlos via Hwy 9, Hwy 85 and I-280 (a worst-case scenario)
So does that look reasonable to you Charles? Or is it all just made up by those lying halibuts from Silicon Valley? What it looks like to me is a genuine attempt to give customers information on actual mileage. But I’m sure you’ll see it differently. Of course we all know that if you put the car on a race track and just drive it as hard as you can the mileage will be even worse than the figures shown above. So I don’t think anybody is being fooled here. You just seem to assume that everybody is much stupider than you and will expect to get the EPA certified mileage on all occasions. Trust me, Tesla buyers are really not that stupid.
Andrew, if and when their vaporcar becomes a production car. The first think I’ll look for is a tranny that will do 0-60 in less than four seconds. At that point it will be what, 2012? Step two can be to arrange independent testing of the other claims. In the meantime, I think everyone should put away the New Economy Kool-Aid and demand that Tesla Motors keep its promises.
Did you notice what a rotten copy editing job I did on my preceding comment? It’s a good thing I don’t make cars, because it would be a problem. Unless they were California cars, in which case you’d all be saluting me for my bravery. I promise to learn how to spell when Tesla learns how to make a car.
Excuse my Britishness but I don’t even know what Kool-Aid is, let alone drink it! So, I reject your characterization Charles. I assume what you mean is that we’re all very gullible and ready to believe any old bullhalibut if it fits in with our green agenda. It’ll surprise you to know, therefore, that I’m probably the least green person I know. I’ve always loved big bad performance cars and have owned a few. I raced for a while when I was younger and would today, if I could afford it. Where we differ on Tesla is that you see the cup half-empty and I see it half-full. I’m also prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt unless and until they are proven to be charlatans. We started this thing years ago called ‘innocent until proven guilty’ …you might have heard of it. Come on Charles, just show a little more charity and a little less cynicism….you know it’ll make you feel good!
I am a little disappointed with the Song provided by the Chariman. I beleived this was a start up company formed, controlled and manufactured here in the U.S. fuelling the spark that is already in the pockets of most of us fossil fuel addicts. I understand basic supply and demand, why could the car not be manufactured here in the US versus UK. I can’t see how my pocket would be inpsired to purchase this expensive chunk of metal with wheels and toxic batteries without the MADE IN U.S.A. stamped on it.
Troy Freeland
Thanks Charles;
It helps to understand your point of view. Another curious question: At what point would you identify the Tesla Roadster as a real car as opposed to vapor-ware?
For example, when the first non-Tesla employee/associate receives their car? Would your definition be after a certain number of cars are built? It would be helpful if you could clarify that point.
The reason I ask is that I have a co-worker whose definition is that “the vehicle doesn’t exist unless he sees it on the road”. Accordingly, he accepts that the Duesenberg does not exist based on that definition.
Here’s a link that shows the classic vehicle: www.prewarcar.com/searchresults.asp?make=Duesenberg
I don’t much care for classic automobiles. I’m more of the new streamlined variety myself. I have to admit though, the Duesenberg is a beautiful vehicle.
Anyways, I got slightly side-tracked. I was curious on what your prefered qualifications for a vehicle to be “real” are. If it’s as simple as “the first production model must role off the assembly line” then I believe the Tesla Roadster exists as - according to the BLOG post - VIN 1 has completed production. Obviously since you still refer to the Roadster as vapor-ware, your requirements of a vehicle to exist are more then “VIN 1 must be produced”.
It’s a non-vaporcar when any dork with $100,000 can walk in off the street, put down the money, and drive it away. Tell me, when does Silicon Valley think it’s real? When someone creates the PowerPoint slide? When the VCs write the check? When the p.r. firm faxes the press release? When some “news” outlet rewrites it as an article?
I can’t speak for Silicon Valley, but for myself, it’s real when the prototype is drivable.
Of course, it would be a pity if it got halted at that point due to failed tests that end up raising something that mean it’ll never pass. For example, a reality of physics becomes clear with the testing. A reality such that means the vehicle can’t exist under current technology. Let’s say, as an example, if the crash testing had shown that such material was needed to pass the tests that the electric engine would not be able to move the vehicle.
In the Tesla Roadsters case, VIN 1 has left the production shop and is either still moving through customs or has made it through customs. Either way, it’ll be registered in the Vehicle Registrars office in California, insured by an insurance company and being driven as a personally owned vehicle at some point. Of course, the caveat is that it isn’t recalled. However, even if it’s recalled - like the GM EV1 vehicle was - that doesn’t detract from the fact it was real. The GM EV1 was real, as is the Tesla Roadster.
It’s a vehicle that can be seen, touched, weighed, measured in any way that an individual can decide to weigh any given vehicle. It’s drivable with an electric motor with the battery in place. The prototypes also fit that definition which is why I would classify the prototype as real.
If we go based on your definition - walk into the store, put money down, and drive away - then we have an interesting definition to work with. Let’s apply that definition to a computer. The computer is real if you can walk into a store, put money down, and walk out with the computer. Using that definition, all Mac computers are vaporware. Or at least, the Mac computers sold locally where I am are vaporware.
You walk into the store, look over the available models, pay, then collect it when your computer arrives.
Looking at how Tesla Motors wants to model their sales after the Mac: you walk into the dealership, look over the models (in this case one), take it for a test drive, put your money down for your order, pick it up when it arrives.
Let’s take your definition a step further. The couch I ordered from the Brick - because I had to wait for the couch to arrive as the Brick didn’t have one in stock - was vaporware. The stove I purchased was vaporware. The book cases I purchased were vaporware. Every book I have to special order because the local bookstores don’t have any in stock are vaporware.
That’s an interesting - and in my opinion unrealistic - definition you have. You have the right to have the opinion that your definition is realistic. I have the right to have my opinion that your definition is unrealistic. At least we can agree that we each have the right to our own opinion.
To Tesla
To make a car company, I suggest that a new concept would be a better way. We know that GM can make a good electric car if they want to. They can not make the Miastrada, at least so it says in patent law.
The appropriate car is one which requires 5 to 10 horsepower or equivalent to travel at 80 mph or less. The Aptera and the Miastrada both offer this, whether they are all electric, all internal combustion engine driven, or hybrid of all degrees. Tesla has the capability to make such a car if they so choose. The Whitestar could become such a vehicle, but I haven’t heard about any serious aerodynamic breakthrough there. If efficiency is a real goal, then you might need my system for eliminating wheel well effects. That might give some barrier to competition by GM et al.
If you want to see what the Miastrada car looks like, (and you are not going to be scarred for life by seeing something different — its amazing how some people react), look at www.miastrada.com You know of course about the Aptera at www.aptera.com , which is a similarly efficient car, thought it looks to be almost 9 feet wide, where the Miastrada is 42 inches wide. Miastrada can be this narrow because of its patented (now “allowed”) articulated system.
Best regards, Jim Bullis
Roger, you must have an interesting house. No stove, no books, no computer. How did you post here, anyway? Telepathy? Do you eat vaporfood, too? At least you don’t need a diet. Me, I’m an old economy dork stuck in the world of real products. But I’m also stuck in the world of real money. Good luck, Tesla.
Elon,
If VIN 1 has rolled off the production line in the UK, why can’t we buy them here? The options we currently have in the local market for full electric cars are pitiful. I WANT A TESLA!
Did anyone notice that Toyota is saying it’ll deliver a plug-in hybrid to vehicle fleets by 2010? They’re not saying when it’ll be available for consumers. Now that’s a smart move, not promising a date. GM says sometime “around 2010″ for its Volt plug-in. Also smart, but GM better get moving because if Toyota beat them then they’ll suffer.
I think a plug-in hybrid, i.e., a car that will get 40 miles on a charge before having to turn on the engine, is a fantastic idea, given that the average driver goes 28 miles a day. Put a bunch of those things on the street and over time they will have a real impact on oil consumption. If paired with alternative energy for electricity generation, they’ll have a big impact on carbon output too.
Who knows, maybe Tesla will have Roadster 2.0 with the real tranny and a 200+ mile range by, oh, 2015?
Elon pleeeeeez explain in ur new blog, what is happening with the promised, more affordable Tesla ‘White Star’ sudan
What I would like to know is WHEN is Tesla going to get new silicon based NANOWIRE lithium ion batteries put in their cars?
www.gm-volt.com/2007/12/21/gm-voltcom-interview-with-dr-cui-inventor-of-silicon-nanowire-lithium-ion-battery-breakthrough/
I bet GM and their battery suppliers A123 and LG Chem are going to aggressively try to get this new nanowire battery technology implemented in the new generation of cars.
cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/01/17/586070.aspx
www.itwire.com/content/view/16129/885/
This scientist from Stanford came up with a HUGE battery breakthrough that will probably change everything. Lithium ion batteries that last 10 times longer! Gotta love that! This will make electric cars very popular very soon. Range extended electric cars like the Chevy Volt with an ultra efficient cellulosic ethanol internal combustion engine OR hydrogen fuel cell will have excellent range … the big objection for most people … that and performance and cost. Same thing with the new Tesla models with range extender generators. Not everyone will want a superfast sports car you know.
You won’t be worried about fueling your car very much at all. You might soon be driving 400+ miles on electricity alone. Add a cellulosic ethanol or hydrogen fuel cell “range extender” to the car and you could have unbelievable range. Maybe 1000+ miles. Imagine only having to fill up your tank with cellulosic ethanol or hydrogen once a month or so.
You wouldn’t NEED so many hydrogen pumps or ethanol pumps because you can charge at home or the office. Someone needs to invent quick charge devices for garages that start up just by rolling the tires over a hump like you see at automated car washes. Talk about convenient. People wouldn’t even have to worry about extension cords. Just roll over the hump thing. Maybe automobile solar panels might get MUCH better and you won’t even have to do that so often.
We wouldn’t have to worry about the oil companies dragging their feet about installing new kinds of pumps as much either. I think the government will pass laws about alternative energy stations anyway. I can visualize quick charge stations that also have cellulosic ethanol and hydrogen pumps available for people making long trips. The thing is, the better the batteries get, the less we need “gas stations” at all. In the future, maybe only the truckers at truck stops will be filling up with ethanol or hydrogen. It’s going to be a much quieter world too in the future too. Internal combustion engines are about to go extinct … from 18 wheeler trucks to those loud lawn mowers, weed eaters, and leaf blowers. That will be great. Less NOISE pollution.
Now if only we could figure out how to get deal with all these polluting coal fired electricity plants! I think more photovoltaic solar, solar thermal, wind and other innovations will emerge to deal with that. Maybe they’ll come up with cheaper, safer nuclear plants with fewer waste problems. Who knows maybe some team of geniuses will finally make FUSION energy happen that’s super efficient and cheap enough. The next 20 years in the auto industry is going be awesome. I love this new electric car technology. I think it’ll be BIGGER than the Internet … and that’s pretty halibut big.
I’m not sure how many of you heard this, but when discussing our country’s current energy crisis and environmental concerns during one of the recent political debates, Republican party candidate Huckabee suggested that the federal governement create a financial incentive of 1 billion dollars for the first automaker that can put a car on the market that gets over 100 MPG.
I was somewhat amused by the fact he obviously wasn’t aware that a such a car already exists.
Excuse me, but what existing car gets >100 mpg?
Have you gotten the help of Alan Cocconi?
I’m still waiting for an answer on that 100+ mpg car. Where do I buy one, Curtis? Or is it enough to invent some PowerPoints and press releases about it?
Hey Jeff;
Your pretty excited about that technology but I think you’re over-looking something.
The research indicates the increased storage of 10x the power. First there’s seems to be some confusion on what that is in realtion to. I have read indication it’s related to existing LiIon batteries, but I have also read indication it’s in relation to the standard NiCD batteries. The only reason I mention that is that there is a huge lack of real publicly available information on the research. It would certainly be nice if the researchers could produce the tech specs of their find.
Anyway, on to the point I think you’ve overlooked.
Let’s say the research is 10x current LiIon batteries. The current storage the Tesla’s battery holds is 56 KwH of energy - if my memory serves correct. That would put the energy storage at 560 KwH - again, considering the lack of tech specs this is assuming same storage space/weight, just more energy.
That generator in the Volt is a given size utilizing a given amount of liquid fuel. That fuel produces x amount of energy through that process. That available energy is not going to increase in size just because the battery can hold more.
Summary: If that new research pays out with the promise it appears to have, having a generator on board will not be required.
The Tesla 56 KwH battery is currently rated at 220 Miles. 10x that would put it at 2,200 miles (560 KwH). I don’t think there’s a vehicle on the road today that can go that distance between fueling.
Of course, the reality is that, if that tech pays out, the battery will likely get smaller and still have longer range. How much of the total weight of the Tesla Roadster consists of the battery? If the battery weight is cut in half, say 280 KwH (1,100 miles), how much further then 1,110 Miles could the vehicle actually go?
The gerator and gas would only add extra weight including variable weight (with the increase/decrease of liquid fuel) which would only harm the milage with little increase in range - relative to the total of course.
It is extremely dificult to mimic hydrocarbons as a transportation fuel. Lithium Ion batteries are the “best” electrical option but still don’t come close to diesel. After Tesla solves the “transmission” problem you will need to solve the problem of half of our electric generation in the US being derived from coal. The thermal efficiency of these coal fired generation stations is less than 30% so even if your charge discharge efficiency and motor/tranmission efficiency is 90% you have a 27% thermally efficient vehicle. The lowly Prius is already 42% thermally efficient. I can’t wait for diesel hybrids that will be over 50% thermally efficient.
Lindsay
Roger, when I looked into an electric vehicle a while back, it was a converted Ford Ranger pickup truck that stored 16 kWh in lead-acid batteries and had a usable range of about 30 miles. Maximum of maybe 50 miles, but as anyone who’s casually studied lead-acid batteries knows, only a fool would try to use all of the range. Now, I’ll freely admit that there are plenty of people who know far more than me about lithium-ion batteries, but I am nevertheless skeptical that anything worthy of being called a sports car will get 220 miles on a 56 kWh charge. When vapor becomes something else, my bet is that they’ll be storing more than 56 kWh or they’ll be going a lot less than 220 miles on a charge.
Pluckham, you are really grasping at straws to build your silly strawman arguments. There is a big difference in fuel economy between a pickup and a sports car, as well as a big weight difference between lead acid and LiIon batteries. Using the same batteries, a small sports EV would go much farther than a large electric pickup! Lighter more energy dense batteries would also increase range.
You also are ignoring the fact that a 16 Kwh lead acid battery pack weighs more than the 53 Kwh ESS in the Tesla Roadster!
Pluckham, all of your arguments against EVs are lame. It is obvious you want Tesla Motors and EVs to fail, but I’m baffled as to your motives. Do you work for or hold stock in the oil companies or a rival auto company? Do you have a grudge against California companies? Or are you just a cantankerous old contrarian?
CM, say what you will. The fact is that Tesla has delivered absolutely nothing but press releases and a few rides in a prototype. In Silicon Valley, this counts as a job well done, but everywhere else it counts as a bunch of promises broken.
Hey CM;
Charles doesn’t necessarily have to work for a rival auto company or the oil industry. There is a huge industry built up around ICE vehicles that are not required with regards the Tesla. It’s one of the reasons I’ve found enjoyment in Tesla Motors. Consider spark plugs as an example. Other then for the Internal Combustion Engine, where are spark plugs used?
I’ve got a Toro rechargeable battery operated weed wacker at home. It works great. The problem, from the perspective of the spark plug manufacturers, is that my battery-operated wipper snipper doesn’t require a spark plug. Every item that used to use ICE and is moving to battery is a lost market for the spark plug manufacturers. Reality is, the automotive industry is a huge part of their market. What Tesla is doing amounts to a revolutionary change that threatens to push the spark plug industry into a niche market. After all, the huge machinery that is in use will likely still require ICE for some time. Large Cranes for example.
That’s just one part of the industry. The others I can think of off-hand:
- fan belt manufacturers
- manufacturers of the hoses used in engines
- gas tank manufacturers
- muffler manufacturers
- transmission manufacturers
- etc.
Charles could easily be a contrarian, but he could just as easily be working for any one of the businesses that has built up around the need to support ICE technology. That might very well explain why he views the Chevy Volt as o.k. considering the volt has a generator in it to use liquid fuels for electricity production. Aren’t those generators effectively ICE technology also requiring spark plugs?
Personally I’m not too concerned with anything Charles has to say considering such things like he completely avoids explaining how the Chevy Volt is not “vaporware” but the Tesla Roadster is. The Volt is scheduled for production in 2010. The Roadster is already in production. It’s a pretty contradictory deffinition poor Charles has.
Anyways: my main point was that the Oil industry and the automotive competitors are not the only industries threatened by the potential revolution Tesla Motors represents.
Hi to Elon and to bloggers on this site,
A more complete look at the Miastrada concept is now possible at www.miastrada.com.
My suggestion is that Tesla win the X Prize competition using this configuration.
I am considering this as a good way to get momentum for a realistic way to make significant progress in the War on Waste - of Energy.
Aerodynamic drag is about a fourth that of the Tesla, so very little energy is needed for high speed travel. This makes the drive train and energy source problems much more manageable.
What do people here think about this?
Best regards, Jim Bullis
I really have to laugh at you people. Only in Silicon Valley would someone who complains because a company doesn’t live up to its promises be painted as some sort of reactionary, while a bunch of a vaporware cheerleaders actually think they are entitled to give lectures about the future. How about the present? Your baby — Tesla — promised to have cars in continuous production for commercial delivery by last fall. It looks like they’ll be at least a year late on having anything out there, and a lot longer than that on having a car that does what they said their car would do. Sorry for mentioning that your emperor is naked.
The Chevy Volt is also vaporware. So is Toyota’s car. Both of those companies are smart not to promise a specific date. If Toyota’s plug-in hybrid gets 7 miles on an electric charge like the most recent article I read implies, then the car will be a joke and I won’t buy it. The Chevy will be a General Motors car, and I haven’t dared approach one of their products for many years. So I’m not holding my breath. Between the two of them, I trust Toyota to deliver something on time, but, as I wrote, if it gets 7 miles on a charge then it’s wasted effort.
That said, if someone puts a plug-in hybrid on the street that has a real-life, all-electric range of 40 miles before needing either a recharge or “ICE” power, that will be a hugely positive thing. This is because the average American drives 28 miles a day. You people are from Silicon Valley. Do the math. Not only that, but if you charge your car at night, there’s little or no extra load on power plants. And if you live in Ecotopia like I do — Seattle — then 95% of your electricity is from hydro and other than the dams killing salmon you’re pretty green.
All-electric vehicles are a mixed bag. It all depends on real-world performance and recharging times. For a two-car household, having one of the cars be electric might work pretty well, depending on the specifics. But I think that, in the real world, a plug-in hybrid with a 40- or 50-mile all-electric range would be huge. You’d cut at least half the auto-related carbon emissions with that vehicle, and you’d do it in fairly short order.
It would help if whoever purports to make one would actually make it instead of talking about making it. I know, I know. I’m a hopeless reactionary and “contrarian” for wanting Tesla and anyone else who says they’re doing to do this to actually do it. At least I’m a really rotten Californian. I would be so much cooler if I’d just drink the Kool-Aid and keep staring at those Power Points. Come on, guys, what planet are you living on, anyway?
Oh, the miastrada. What did they do, copy something out of a Batman comic book? You know, right next to those lines about defeating the evildoers everywhere — the same lines that Bush used right after Sept. 11th? Look, folks, there is talking about it and there is doing it. Americans used to be better at doing it than at talking about it. That was the America that won its wars, was a creditor nation, had the best technology on the planet, and had a rising standard of living from top to bottom. But now we’ve progressed.
Well come on Charles. We’re all waiting to see what you have to say now that Tesla have solved the acceleration problem by up-rating the PEM, water-cooling the motor and sticking with a one-gear car. I’m sure you won’t be happy that the car isn’t going to have two gears as promised, but you should be pleased that it will have the promised acceleration and top speed and be even better in the quarter-mile. Of course, by your standards, all of this is just vapour for the moment as you can’t actually walk into your Tesla dealer and come out with a car just yet. But they’d have to be pretty stupid to make the promises they’re now making without some rigorous testing to back it all up. Production is slated to start slowly on 17th March, in case you haven’t read the press release….. sorry vapour release!
I’ll wait for the reviews. Production is “scheduled to start slowly.” When will customers be able to walk into a showroom and buy one?
Wait — the press release says that they’ll ship a car that’s slower than specs. You know, the buggy version. Then they’ll have Tesla Roadster 2.0, the one that does what Tesla said its 2007 model (the one it never produced, and that we’re not supposed to notice) would do. And it will be water cooled, you say? The press release doesn’t mention water cooling, it just says “advanced cooling.” We’ll see, won’t we?
Let’s just say that I’m not going to be holding my breath waiting for a car that goes 0-to-60 in less than 4 seconds, with a 250-mile range. Or even a 220-mile range. Which we’re not supposed to notice, either. Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! As it turned out, the original wizard was also something of a Kansas gasbag.
I knew I would enjoy your comments as always Charles! Thanks for that - I needed a laugh.
Andrew, it’s a good thing that we can entertain each other. Let me know how that press release handles in the corners, will ya?
BTW Charles, Motor Trend have a review out that you can find easily online. You have mentioned several times that you are waiting to see some independent reviews by motoring magazines. Enjoy.
The only review that matters is when the reviewer gets a production model without a handler present, and is able to test it against the manufacturer’s claims. Andrew, I realize how deeply unfamiliar this is to you and others who confuse a PowerPoint slide with a real product. Most people can tell the difference. I think you need to get out of Santa Clara County every now and then.
By the way, I’m hearing that Tesla cut the top speed of this new sled from 135 mph to 125 mph. Four and a half years ago, I rented a Volvo DIESEL turbo STATION WAGON and drove at on the Autobahn at 220 km/h. Please don’t tell me that the Tesla is going to be slower than a common mommy car.
Charles, I have no confusion whatsoever and South Cambridgeshire is quite a long way outside Santa Clara County. So you don’t have any interest in the Motor Trend report or Road and Track or Car and Driver or Autoweek. Hmmm…so where do you get your information about cars? Congratulations on the German drive by the way. We’re all very excited for you.
I read that Motor Trend report, along with a bunch of recycled press releases masquerading as articles about the Tesla Vaporcar. They kinda-sorta liked the prototype. Big deal. As for South Cambridgeshire, is that near Cambridge itself? All brickbats aside, that’s a nice spot. I was in Cambridge a few years ago, and it was truly lovely. The kind of place where, for a moment, one could imagine not caring about whether anything works.
Anyway, Silicon Valley is a place, but it’s also a state of mind. As soon as Tesla makes it available for customers to buy, then we’ll have a look. Last year and the year before, the hype was forgiveable. Now, the hype is approaching self-parody. If you think I’m merciless, just wait until Jeremy Clarkson gets hold of a Tesla.
I’m looking forward to Jeremy Clarkson having a go at it. Of course he’ll attack it….that’s what he does, especially with anything even slightly green. I have no problem with that at all. I don’t really care if you attack it either. I have no shares in Tesla. As I’ve explained to you many times before it’s the continual harping on about silicon valley and VCs and PowerPoint presentations that i find irritating and frankly a bit pointless. Anyway, we’ll just have to agree to differ. I am very close to Cambridge and it is a beautiful place. I’m glad you liked it.
I have to give a semi-tip of the hat to whoever runs this blog. Martin What’s-His-Name, the guy who was ousted from Tesla, has wiped all my comments from his blog. It would appear that, once out of the kitchen, he couldn’t stand the heat. Tesla, on the other hand, can. It speaks well of them. Of course, it will speak really well of them if they can deliver a car. As for Clarkson, once you strip out the hoo-hah, he’s obviously someone who knows cars and loves cars. I don’t think the guy cares what it runs on, as long as it runs. Make a car that works the way you said it would work, and we’ll both be happy.
Charles, at least you looked at the Miastrada site. Batman car works for me, but if you look further you might see there is a little more to it than a comic book concept. Oh, and some stuff has been added.
But as to a “lot of talk”, of course it is. I have 45 years experience trying to build things that were never seen before, and many of these have still not been seen, for a variety of reasons. But in every case it took a lot of talk to get anything started. I have had the experience of hearing, “I thought of that a long time ago,” more than once.
But give it a little more thought. When waterfront property is for sale in the Sierra foothills and the Appalachian slopes, the world will look back at the right front seat as the biggest disaster since the black plague. And we will be riding in buses as we shop for such real estate.
So tandem seating needs to be re-examined. It makes it possible to reduce drag by an order of magnitude. Everything about batteries, motors, and transmissions gets a lot easier when it only takes 10 HP to go 80 MPH.
Is there ever foresight in the automobile world? If you look at the auto shows, you realize that the answer is probably not. Auto design is mostly about “design”, which is a tricky way to turn it into a fashion industry. Miastrada will not win beauty contests until people get used to a new look. And design, as it is called, can be an important part in gaining public acceptance.
Come on guys, take another look at www.miastrada.com. It has been improved, some.
Regards, Jim Bullis
For a dose of realism:
Please look at www.miastrada.com/references to see the Battelle presentation charts at November conference at Stanford. Then revisit discussions about equivalents of electric energy. These charts show that electricity demand, created by night time charging when rates are favorable, will be mostly filled from coal fired capacity.
This defines the efficiency of the conversion process from heat energy to electric energy as that of coal fired plants. (This being 32.5% from separate analysis, available on request.)
Further, the CO2 implications are significantly worse than otherwise might be assumed.
Best regards, Jim Bullis
Keep the research guys !!!!
I will own a Tesla car in the next 3-4 years ! If I am lucky it will the Roadster!
In your research do not forget the great Man Tesla did run his car without a battery !!!!
“with an 80-horsepower alternating-current electric motor with no
external power source.
At a local radio shop he bought 12 vacuum tubes, some wires and
assorted resistors, and assembled them in a circuit box 24 inches
long, 12 inches wide and 6 inches high, with a pair of 3-inch rods
sticking out. Getting into the car with the circuit box in the
front seat beside him, he pushed the rods in, announced, “We now
have power,” and proceeded to test drive the car for a week, often
at speeds of up to 90 mph.
As it was an alternating-current motor and there were no batteries
involved, where did the power come from?
Popular responses included charges of “black magic,” and the
sensitive genius didn’t like the skeptical comments of the press.
He removed his mysterious box, returned to his laboratory in New
York - and the secret of his power source died with him.”
“Throughout space there is energy. … it is a mere question of time when men will succeed in attaching their machinery to the very wheelwork of nature.” - Nikola Tesla
Keep it focussed on the Big picture!!! Now we need battery … after several years we should not !!!!!!!!!!
Best to all !!!!
Dear Folks:
Can anyone tell me what the charge / discharge system efficiency is of the battery including steering diodes (forgetting about the inverter and the motor) in the Tesla? Somewhere I read LI-ion batteries are 99.5% efficient which is hard to believe… Other posts above say they can do something with ‘heat from the batteries’. if they’re 99.5% eff then there will be no heat.
Things I like about the Tesla Roadster:
1). Spiffy 2 seat roadster that will be a babe magnet.
2). Simple design: One induction motor, and I assume only one differential, no transmission.
3). Long Advertised driving range.
Things I worry about with the Tesla Roadster:
1). Management Shakeup
2). Unconvincing battery real-world life expectancy testing.
3). High cost per mile of battery replacement, especially for low-mileage drivers.
4). Tesla personnel pursuit of ‘Wild Goose Chases’ : Fast Chargers (Electric Utilities would never allow them without paying $17/Kw fine per month), REEV or whatever silly accronym is being used this week; if i wanted that I’d get a VOLT; excessive worrying about customer’s electrical systems while not even understanding that there are no 40 amp dryers in the usa/canada.
5). Town Hall meeting where Tesla Personnel seemed squeemish about comitting to anything.
6). Lack of a specification sheet, or even a detailed design goals sheet.
7). Extremely high speed motor (last figure I think I’ve heard is 14,000 RPM, on an induction motor no less).
8). Previous commitments as to production dates have been badly missed,
That being said, I wish you guys luck. But I fear a serious lack of focus… Please prove me wrong.
- Bill.
I strongly suggest doing any “range extender” in the form of a generator (probably diesel) which feeds the otherwise all-electric system.
Why a diesel generator? Because this particular combination — diesel generator feeding an electric drive-train — is used in the so-called
“diesel-electric” and “dual-mode” (on and off wire) locomotives for railroads. They’ve completely driven conventional diesel locomotives out of the market. So the diesel-generator/electric drivetrain combination is extremely well tested in the railroad environment and has had most of its kinks worked out. Also, small diesel generators are pretty common “off the shelf” items, so making small enough diesel generators should be no problem. Doing the range extension this way means the range extension is simply a combination of proven technologies and should introduce minimal complications to the production and design. I really like the idea of having a “range extender” which is simply a souped-up diesel generator which goes into the trunk and plugs into a socket, but can be removed to make more space: it would be an add-on rather than an option.
Jim Bullis:
“These charts show that electricity demand, created by night time charging when rates are favorable, will be mostly filled from coal fired capacity.”
Currently-wasted coal-fired capacity, which is burning ANYWAY, generating the CO2 but not doing anything useful. They can’t afford to take the coal plants offline at night and bring them back on during the day, so they just waste it at night. I’m not sure why you left out that little detail, which is the important point actually. This is actually true, amazing though it may seem: they really do just keep burning coal even when nobody needs the electricity. Power companies prefer to have coal and other systems which can’t be turned on and off easily (like hydro) for “base load” only, with something else which can be switched on and off faster for “peak load”, but good “peak load” plants (ideally solar, then wind, then gas, then oil) are fairly rare. So currently coal and other “base load” plants are providing a significant part of the “peak load” as well as the “base load”.
That’s why your reading of page 7 (”plug-in operations will degrade rather than improve greenhouse gas emissions in 2010.”) of the EPRI report is entirely wrong. They only degrade emissions if they’re fueled from NEW capacity rather than wasted capacity.
That’s for the short term. Obviously once plug-in usage exceeds that genuine wasted (already-burned) capacity, there is a problem. I seriously doubt we’ll get that level of uptake by 2010.
In the longer run, we have to build green power generation. Hydro, wind, and solar are all better than currently existing biofuels in Co2 terms, and all three of them generate electricity. Geothermal can be used to generate electricity, but not to generate burnable fuel. And that’s it for low-carbon energy sources. So, electric seems to be the way to go.
Now, if commercial algae-farm biofuels start really working, that will change the equation in favor of fuel-burning, but that’s still *extremely* iffy technology.
3 items:
There is competition ramping up: the XH-150 is an “Extreme Hybrid” SUV (4-seater) with >150 mpg. www.afstrinity.com/press-images.htm
Stanford U. and Toshiba have developed “nanowire” lithium batteries (existing mfg tech, no massive retool retrofit needed) that have 10X the charge capacity at 60X the charge rate. You do the figgering of the consequences.
FocusFusion ( www.focusfusion.org ) is now in full development/testing mode of fusion electricity generation using boron11+hydrogen that scales to 20-30MW generators the size of a 2-car garage or less, at a capital cost of $400,000 each or less, producing power at ~$0.001/kwh. Emissions are He3 in party-balloon quantities, and trivial radiation and negligible heat. Ramp-up time 5-6 years. Maybe coal can be used to make carbon nanotubes? Or cheap diamonds?
The thing for Tesla to do is produce a production car that does what they said it would do. All this talk about diesel generators and carbon nanotubes is completely beside the point.
Nathanael Nerode:
You make good points that I find very interesting and important. You might find the plan by GM interesting, see fastlane.gmblogs.com/PDF/presentation-sm.pdf This shows how relevant the topic is for the future. But I also read it to say that the energy that GM is going to “shift to transportation” will come from coal. Note also that in this presentation they carefully avoid any mention of greenhouse gases, rather the kind of pollution they are going to reduce is the Southern California type of smog. So the shift to coal is not problematic for GM.
I am looking for good data on use of fuels and other sources for electric power generation as a function of time of day. That has been elusive so far. But it has a lot to do with the night charging issue. My supposition is that the reason night rates are low is that the fuel will be coal.
Oops, my bad, above. Emissions are He4 (the usual kind of helium), not He3, the rare stuff. :-O(
Spring starts this coming week. Tesla said it would “begin full series production of the Roadster in Spring 2008.” Of course, the announcement included the usual Silicon Valley weasel words about this being merely a goal, and that the car would be a sort of half-assed Ver. 1.0 that would need upgrades later on, sort of like a Microsoft release of buggy software. But still, the company put a marker out there.
So, folks, how’s it going?
Charles you need a bit less cynical in life. halibut happens.
Looks like they did lie. They started production in the Winter not fall.
Congrats Tesla!
You are the light at the end of the tunnel. I am not an uber-nerd. I am not a granola-head. I am just an average joe that longs for our country to no longer be dependent on countries that hate and despise us. Every time I fill up my gas guzzling tank, I cringe at my support to terrorism. I have been wanting to invest in a smaller car to decrease my own dependence but I’m going to wait. I am waiting for your sedan to come out. If I am not able to afford your luxury sports sedan maybe I will be able to afford your third model. Nonetheless, I will wait.
How can I invest in your company? Do you have stock? I believe you are the future in cars. Please don’t sell out to the car companys. The gas mogels will just have to step aside just as the railroad barrons had to.
Thank you, Thank you, Thank you,
You guys really are on the cutting edge if this technology and I wouldn’t be surprised if your company completely blindsides the big automakers. Before they know it they will have a serious competitor. Keep up the good work and I can’t wait to see your other upcoming models!
Well , all these ideas abpout extra milage coverage are very tempting. I represent Baltics and traveling from Riga to Tallin and bacwards estimates around 600 km which goes beyond Tesla possibilities at the moment, therefore I find the ideas of some on line genretatot as self-evident further development, the question only is in what way the energy will be produced either by some typical generator or maybe some Fuel Cell or system like WES (water electric systems). Nowadays people are used to have all the best - fastest car, strongest car, nicest car, most economical car. These goals are very ambitious. Imagine what are the main things which you might come across in some far countryside taking into account already created infrastructure - sure this might be Water, electricity, Sun. So It does not matter what we do with these sources and how - we have to get electricity out of them to push Tesla car running. I accept all inventions that migh extend milage coverage as far as they are efficient and energy recovery takes less time or it can be done simultaneously while drving - the car shoudl be like handy phone ( plug at home, plug in car, ) Sure the notin hybrid for me will be always a car which uses assitance of internal combustion engine, does not matter what is burnt - gasoline, gas, hydrogen.
eEectricity should be generated onboard, but only in a clean way, Presence of any kind of ICE overshadows the real message of any authetic electric vehicle. I think that it must be avoided, otherwise it is a certian way of singing the song so muched favoured big Automotive players.
Green Power Generation will surely be the beginning of the demise of cars built using carbon based fuels. We look forward to Tesla taking the next steps towards a modern fuel alternative.
I really hope that Tesla can get it together. They were smart about making a sports car first, since people who buy expensive sports cars are more forgiving about mechanical problems and bugs in new models. I have to say, I’m waiting for the Chevy Volt or Quantum Karma. They are both awesome cars and don’t need a matrix of 12,000 batteries. I think had Tesla initially partnered with a company like Toyota they would be in much better shape. It’s really hard to be a manufacturing company right off the bat. These guys are designers not producers.