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Will Tesla be around in 3-5 years

In today world can car company still be around. Tesla is a started up company and to be successful in the future it need have a good distribution and supply chain to grow. Not easy in today world. Yes you can maybe for a small company to produce 20,000 to 100,000 and still be around but for how long. What I see Elon Musk is going to sell his company in the future. Or Telsa is going to go down. In today world where little company's are bought up by big company's. That how I see Tesla is going to survive. You need cash flow and or you not going to survive. Every small car company is own by a big major car company. Telsa has 250 patents for the electric car and what I see Elon is going to sell and make alot of money like he did with Paypal. Will Telsa 8 years warranties be honored by a take over. Who knows. Lots of major company's are starting to make electric cars. BMW and Mercedes are all ready doing that. Mercedes own 10% of Tesla. Only time will tell if I'm right or wrong. But I bed Elon Musk is going to sell.

Do not bet too much on this. Elon is young and has put a lot of passion into this already. Also, wait for the financial results to be released tomorrow.

TESLA is now in their 10th year, with the first 5 spent on developing technology for the Roadster and building it. There is no question that they will be around in 3, 5 or 10 years.

Elon wouldn't have a choice. When the big car company start making electric cars that where you see Telsa wouldn't keep up. Tesla would be bought up and just be any other car company like Buick, Jarguar, Dodge, Hummer, Rolls-Royce, Viper, and the list goes on and on. The only reason why they are still around is because the batterys are still expensive $40-50,000 for each Model S. When the prices comes down in 5-10 years they wouldn't be able to compete with Major car company's.

Let's say I'm right. You think a company like a Mercedes making the C classe car starting $30,000 and make it to a electric car wouldn't sale more than Tesla Bluestar in 4 years. It all about cash flow and volume which Tesla can't keep up. Already BMW is getting out the i3 next year for 30,000

Tesla is not a electric car company buy a luxury car company for now that come with a electric motor.

I think MB/Daimler's stake is down to 5% now. But it has "first refusal" rights to match any offer. Elon and close associates (like his brother) have controlling interest, and his goals are to transform the industry, not make money. He's already a billionaire; how much can you spend? (BTW, his most recent ex-wife (Brit) is back with him, trying to make sure he doesn't go "king crazy", as happens to most of those crowned).

He intends, btw, to live long enough to die on Mars, preferably not on impact. :D

Brian

Don't fool yourself. It's all about money. Billionaires want to make more money. Anyway any billionaire will sale his stock sooner or later. It all about money in today world don't fool yourself. Elon is trying to cash early before the price of battery's come down in 2020 were major car company's will have control of the market. The only reason people are not ready for electric cars is the battery's is not ready for people yet. It still to expensive.

Plus cold and hot weather battery range come down. SC is not the answer. Battery's must be able to do 500 -1000 mile on a charge. Plus charge with SC in 10 minutes. Nobody wants to wait when you want to go for a long trip. For now electric cars are for the city for now. 85kw battery can't go more than 177 miles in -20-30 C. That a fact. My brother live in Quebec city and he can't go more than that with his new Model S. unless you drive 20-40 miles you might get 220 miles.

Just the fact that you raise this question shows that you haven't been doing much reading lately. Full disclosure I'm heavily invested in Tesla stock and actually picked up some more on Thursday.

I think it was Nissan and GM that came out last week and announced they bailed on the EV idea and would like to go back to the drawing board with regard to fuell cells. I think this is the official white flag raised saying they can't compete with Tesla.

Tesla is selling drive trains to Totyota and Mercedes and talks with BMW now. The big assumption is these guys are gonna get swallowed by another big company, it won't happen. Their production process is completely different and those other companies can't figure out the range problem. That was TSLA big edge in this space, and the most important solution needed.

Nissa only sold like 14000 leafs last year. Tesla has already sold more cars with twice the price tag. The smartest thing TSLA did was build an expensive electric car instead of the every man. They already won the EV market. They aren't going anywhere.

It's going to be another company like Ferrari. Selling Market for upper classe people who have money.

I question idea that batteries becoming cheaper would be the "killer" of Tesla's business. That doesnt make any sense to me. Just because batteries become cheaper, doesnt mean the huge car companies are going to be able to automatically kick Tesla out of their own game.

Tesla will have been developing and refining their patented technology for a hell of a lot longer, and already have established platforms, a much more decked out infrastructure of Superchargers, etc...

Also, the fact that the Super Chargers do not connect to any other EVs is also a factor to consider. All of the big car companies would have to license Tesla's technology, or create and unify a whole new infastructure of their own. All place Tesla would already have a strong foothold.

IMO, batteries becoming cheaper and more efficient will only make Tesla stronger as a company and a brand.

First, I will answer the people that were asking the same question 3-5 years ago: Yes!
Now, for your question, my guess will be yes. And I am more sure of that than I was when 3-5 years ago.

As for other companies making EVs, that was exactly what I thought was the biggest danger to Tesla's existence 3-5 years ago. It is less of a risk now than it was then simply because the other companies have given Tesla more time to work on it before getting serious about it themselves (which for the most part they still haven't).
It isn't a questing of can they make a competitive pure EV, it is will they? So far they haven't come close.

As for range, even in worst case scenarios, how often do most people drive further than 177 miles in a day. In my situation, I live in a suburb of Minneapolis. My wife and I both drive the Tesla when ever we can so it is often out multiple times a day. The most we have ever driven in a day is the one day this year when we visited extended family out of state, we took our second car. Every other day of the last 4+ months we have driven a combined 150 miles or less. Now, I know not everyone has my driving habits, but I bet there are plenty of people for whom the range of the Model S will work quite nicely.

The Model S range isn't close what has been marketed. I find real world range is 175. Unfortunately I need 220 every week to go between our two homes, and it is often freezing, and other times temps can hit 100F, so this car cannot do the main thing we bought it for. TM has way oversold range, and the NYT article shows its Achilles heel to the world. For me the car is now an interesting local driver and demonstration piece, sitting in the garage between the motorcycle collection and my MG-TD, while we drive the pickup back and forth to the city. This car was supposed to be a game changer in terms of EV range, and it ES ave more range than any other EV. However, it is virtually useless for medium and long distance trips, especially where are will never be Superchargers. In my case there are no Level 2 chargers en route either, so we can't take a chance.

Once the above is widely understood, the Emperor will be seen as naked and sales/reservations will drop. The sales and support model is also beginning to show its limitations. This is a public company with an independent board. What Elon wants will be irrelevant and this company's technology will be sold to the highest bidder.

Nick, you have already convinced yourself Tesla is doomed it seems. Your statement that any other car maker is coming out with a car competitive to the Model S or any other Tesla vehicle is a joke. The "other" car makes have had EVs up their sleeves for 10 years now and the best thing they can come up with is 80-100 miles on a perfect sunny day at 65 degrees F. outside.... and that will be the car they might (but won't) put out next year. All of them are just throwing batteries and an electric motor in an ICE car.

I was worried about a magical power source that might come out in the next 5 to 10 years that would give an EV 1000 miles and be quick and easy to charge with no temperature limitations. That is the only way any other car maker will get ahead of Tesla. Researching tech in that area you will discover that is not going to happen and fit in a car.... at least not for 50 years.

I have no clue why Nick thinks Elon will sell his company? Looks to me like Bill Gates still owns a lot of Microsoft. Plus if Tesla is successful, if it makes it thru this year I think it is home free, Elon won't be selling his interest cheap. He will be calling the shots and he will make sure previous owners get their warranties honored. If Tesla is around in 5 years, and I believe they will be, then they are in. No one will be able to catch up. The Model S will have all the features and more than any other car in the world. Just because it is missing some features this year (adaptive cruise, heated back seats, etc) shows it is the first model year of the car. What do you think Tesla is done and they don't plan on innovating any more?

All other cars on the market seem like the tech in the car is a 'tacked on afterthought', and it is. The Model S is more like an Ipad on wheels.

Is there a risk something will happen to Tesla? Does global warming exist? Will a meteor hit the planet? Those questions have different answers depending on who you ask but I'll stand behind Tesla. Yes it is still a risk to invest in companies.... all companies.

Dave not everyone assumes the car really goes 300 miles or even 265 for that matter. I guess you didn't do the same research I did. I bought the 60kWh battery because I realized 2 years ago the car is an around the town car for the next few years until the Supercharger network fills out. IF they don't sell the 120-150Kwh batteries of the future to us early adopters then they will be fools. Only time will tell there. I always knew the hype on the forums was just hype. Sorry you fell for it.

Sudre take Apple with the iPhone. They don't control the market. What I see Android phone we're not around in 2007 but today they are ahead of iPhone around the world. Same thing with Telsa. They start the electric car doesnt mean they going to own the electric car in the future. Again cash flow and Elon is going to sell in the future. That why last 90 years there has never been a new start become as a major company.

Microsoft? Apple?

Google? Do I really need to go on.

You could consider the possibility that Elon means what he says: the goal for Tesla is to make electric transport first feasible, then common, then dominant. Electric cars are part of that picture. Majors have little or no interest in any of those things, and TM would be very hard to acquire as a hostile takeover.

Don't forget Musk has wider involvements and plans. TM is SpaceX's "little brother". With the intention to make humanity a multi-planet species.

IOW, I think nicknike and P_D are {snip} ... mistaken.

I would like to see TM remain independent. It just isn't likely. Those of you who think that Elon Musk is the second coming and worshhip at his feet are in for a rude awakening. He is a creative genius, and I would never bet against him. However, he isn't the billionaire you think he is, and he has put most of his resources into his two main investments.

Elon received roughly $176 million of the proceeds from selling PayPal, and he was the architect of that sale. He put the majority of those proceeds into his next ventures. He has since divorced twice, the first at great cost. He is basically fully invested in terms of his ability to provide new capital, and will need liquidity at some point. He is certainly in no position to either call the shots or bail the company out when it is needed. A large part of his net worth is tied up in TM shares, worth roughly $350 million. That 32% ownership position is not liquid, and it is not a controllin position any more. His estimated $672 million net worth (including TM) is tied up in his investments, which may or may not pay off. Two years ago he reported that he was living on loans and had no cash. He invested his last $35 million in Tesla and had no cash left. From the New York Times:

"People like Mr. Musk may have redefined what it means to be rich, particularly young and rich. But somehow, many of these seemingly successful people live on the financial edge, waiting, hoping for the next deal to unlock their next fortune."

Elon will sell, either when the time is right, or when he must, whichever comes first. And an independent board is just that - Elon is an employee and works at their pleasure.

Feel to live in worshipful delusion if you choose.

In order for Tesla to have a chance of becoming viable independently, it will have to generate sustained demand for at least 50,000 Model S/year. Not exactly mass market, but somewhat beyond early adopters. It would allow the company to run 2 shifts/day and may be some over time to maximize the use of capital equipment. They would achieve economies of scale and lower unit prices with margins at 30%. With ASP @80k, it would amount to margins of $1.2B. Enough to pay for the SG&A+R&D of $400M/year.

In order to achieve that kind of demand, range anxiety go to be reduced significantly. The only way to do this at this time is by installing SC at approximately 150 miles interval on the interstate depending on the local climate patterns. Anything longer is no good. Beyond the early adopters, who wants to spend $80-100+K and then drive with wife and kids with no HVAC at a lame 55 mph to stretch to 225-250 miles? Tesla will have to install those SC here in the US, Canada and EU, at least. Plus service centers.

Unless they get their act together and generate some serious $$$ on the Model S, how are they going to finance Model X production? Going to need new dies, assembly line, etc. This is chump change compared what a Gen III car will need for mass production. Tesla have a better shot a viability by improving the battery performance of Model S, X with newer chemistries, get capacity to 150 KW-hr without cost increases, especially if they want customers who will pay $100,000/car.

Given the hurdles, I am begining to think Elon Musk will do what the did in the past: sell out to Mercedes or Toyota. Both companies have capital to scale up production and achieve lower costs. The car companies in the EU are under a lot of pressure to Green, not to mention $8-10/US Gallon for gasoline.

@bubba2000 Elon and others have stated they will be comfortably profitable at 13000 model S units per year. Not sure where you are getting that 50000 number.

I believe that, at the very least, Tesla will become an automotive supplier like Delphi, etc., and provide electronics, batteries and drive trains to other manufacturers. But I like to think they'll make it as a standalone car company. Even if it's just for exotics.

All --

Elon can't sell, he's contracted out till genIII goes full production, which is most like 3-5 years away... It's in writing in the quarterly reports. Also as a condition of the doe loan repayment schedule, he must hold a majority stake until one year after full production start of model s. Lastly, Tesla board has stated Tesla mostly like would fail if Elon was to leave, and its of the utmost importance to retain his services.

Many forget or don't understand Elon has no incentive to sell Tesla, spacex or solarcity, because they are exactly what he wants to do with his life regardless of financial success. These companies are his life dream and ambition. I think many posting on this thread don't understand this single most influential factor having the power it does over Elon's decisions. Why would someone sink over a 100m (all of your personal wealth) in a rocket company, solar panel installation company, and an electric car company and think it was a sound investment? He's taken this risk and gone after this so diligently because he saw an opportunity to make his dream happen. Why give that up? If you had a chance to make your wildest dreams a reality would you sell it to the highest bidder or would you live it out?

History always repeats its self. Elon sold paypal and made lots of money. He is going to do the same thing with Tesla. It's only time.

jk;
+1

nicknike;
-1

The PayPal sale occurred because there was no more to achieve with it. It was functional and had made Web transactions easy. What next?

SpaceX is very profitable, and constitutes most of Musk's worth now. He has guaranteed to back TM's liabilities 100%. In fact, he has suggested both might be put under a single holding company.

Control, btw, does not require a majority. Just a plurality.

Jk2014,

You are entitled to an opinion, but not your own facts. First, after the re-equitization, Elon now owns 32%, not a majority stake. TM requested and received a waiver of the DOE loan requirement.

Second, his employment contract has nothing to do with selling or not selling the company. And any restrictions that may exist on his personal shares would not apply to a sale of the entire company.

Lastly, what part of public company structure do you not understand? There is an INDEPENDENT board of directors at TM, with a fiduciary obligation to shareholders. Elon works for and reports to them. They call the shots, not him. He can try to influence their decision, but under most board structures, insiders are not even allowed in the room when an offer is being considered. A committee of the strictly independent board members is normally established and recommends a course of action to the entire board and to the independent shareholders. They, not Elon would negotiate the terms of any sale or merger.

TM isn't a cult, despite the worshipful attitude of some participants on this forum. Cheers.

Brian,

How can a person with no cash or liquidity back anything? Any tacit or explicit guarantee of liabilities by Mr. Musk is essentially worthless, and his childhood dreams and life goals went out the window when TM undertook its IPO? I didn't think you were a kook-aid drinker, but perhaps you are....

To those who still believe that Mr. Musk would never sell his life dream, his personal baby, then why do you think he brought TM public in the first place? Because the public markets are transparent? No, the reporting and oversight costs are huge. He did it to have a liquid exit option when the time is right.

Chris, My point is that the Model S operations may be marginally profitable at a rate of 20,000 cars, or sales of $1.6-2B. At 25% profit, it barely covers Overhead (SG&A) and R&D of $100M. The company still needs money to fund the tooling, manufacturing for the Model X, debt servicing, rapid SC deployment. Gen III is a money pit if they want to tool for mass production in hundreds of thousands to achieve the low price point. Where is that money coming from???

Tesla go to leverage the Model S investment by ramping demand to 50,000 cars/year via Supercharger deployment at 150 miles apart - or less - Service Centers. For ASP=$80-100K, the hi end consumer will demand comfort, minimal range anxiety, service and comfort. Model X go to ramp to 25K/year. If they did not have the lame gull wing, and the range was same as Model S, it would sell. They need 100 KW-hr battery for 300 nominal miles. Who wants to get stranded with the a SUV full of screaming kids and whinny wife after coughing $100K+?

If Tesla can not deliver this within the next 6 months, they got to sell out Mercedes, Toyota, etc. The Chinese would probably pay cash for it, because of their ability to drive costs down, hi volumes.

@Bubba2000 | FEBRUARY 11, 2013: They need 100 KW-hr battery for 300 nominal miles

Switching to 3.4Ah vs the current 3.1Ah batteries would yield a 93kWh battery pack. It might make up for the increased weight and Cd.

Pung -- Elon is the single largest share holder of tesla. Board is mostly comprised of friends and family... the man's got the most say in how tesla operates. To add, why did he incorporate in Delaware of all places? Anti hostle take over laws maybe? Read quarterly report risks, states if elon leavesor sells out it will have a significant impact on the company's ability to operate. I take from all this that in order to get Evs to market where all have failed before, got to do your homework and maintain control under the most hostile conditions. This guy may have his head in the clouds but his gut instincts firmly planted in the dog eat dog business world on the ground.

To add, you go public to raise money... No sinister plotting there in this case

Pungoteague_Dave - Don't you charge at JHU?


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