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Mass Market vehicle not possible by 2020.

A mass market electric vehicle, is a vehicle that has such compelling price and performance figures, that it can replace the gasoline car. Otherwise it is a niche market/ hobby car. Musk plans to sell a mass market Generation 3 car by 2020 (latest).

1) Range:

Real world Range: gasoline cars: 450 miles.
Real world Range Tesla: 200 miles.

2) Time for Recharge/Refuel:

Refueling: 5 min. for 100%
Recharging: 20-30 min for 50%

Even if Musk gets the price down 50%, I dont see how Tesla will sell a vehicle that will be adopted by the mass market by 2020. The energy density and charging figures needed to match gasoline cars are just to big of a hurdle in such a short time frame.

Any insights?

Real world Model S range 265 miles. 200 you get if you drive it like you stole it in hilly/bad terrain.

Time to refuel: 5 seconds. 2.5 sec at morning and 2.5 secs after you park it for a night.

1) Mass market means mass market. Currently there is no charging infrastracture that allows everybody (mass market) to charge their cars overnight.

2) If you have airconditioning on and drive 120 km/h, 200 miles is accurate.

You need the better and cheaper product for people to switch to electric. I dont see it happening in the next 10 years.

You drive 200 miles 120km/h constant? Where can you do that (legally)? You do realize that you are talking about very small minority of people if you base your claim about Model S range to that? In city and especially in stop & go traffic electric cars use a lot less energy than ICE cars.

At 120km/h air conditioning affects range about 0.5 miles, if even that.

Mass market does not mean everybody. Just that nearly anyone can afford it.

Anyway, only city dwellers without garage or own parking slot can't charge at home. Pretty much everyone else can get electric plug installed for them. Electricity is everywhere.

@pvandeloo.ipod
I fully agree with your statements; just to emphasize: given a range of 200miles and re-charging of 50% requires a stop every 100 miles; and full re-charging would take more than 1 hour! On the other hand, when re-fueling an ICE-car it does not make a difference whether you do a 50% or a 100% re-fill (5min vs. 7 min). However, as already mentioned, business trips will not take longer than 250km (one way). Therefore, a "destination recharge" is the appropriate solution here.

@Timo
again, speaking form a German/European point of view: there is (except for Germany) a speed limit of (around) 120-130km/h. Lot of people are "cruising" with a (automatic) speed control. So, 120km/h constant is not very unrealistic. Taking hilly regions into consideration - what will be a "real range"?
As far as I know, air conditioning is not "negletible" for EVs because there is no waste heat as in ICEs. I don't have exact figures, but to my knowledge, airconditiong etc. affects the range of an EV much more than the range of an ICE.
Mass market? I'm not that pessimistic: daily urban/office trip: around 50km one way: recharging at home and/or at the office. no problem, fine. Weekend trip, 1-day business trip. ok for a range of about 200km (roundtrip) or oneway with recharge during the day.
For longer distances, battery swap (instead of super-charging).
For a mass market car, primarily the price matters.

ROUND 1

That's strange...

1) Mass market cars were possible in the 1920s-1970s with a range of less than 200 miles. Several mass market cars still don't have even a 350 mile range, if they have performance anywhere near a Tesla Motors product.

2) Mass market cars that you don't fuel up at home have been possible for decades beyond that. So why wouldn't the mass market want a car that has a 'full tank' every day when they awake to go to work, instead of having to leave 20 minutes early to stop for gas once or twice a week...?

ROUND 2

1) The infrastructure is called the national electrical grid. There is electricity everywhere. There are not gasoline and diesel stations everywhere. Very, very few people are able to refuel at home using petroleum products. Those few usually are powering tractors or crop dusters.

2) The climate control system used by Tesla is extremely efficient. It doesn't 'steal power' the way people have become accustomed to with ICE vehicles. People have been known to use the Air Conditioning or Heater for HOURS. Then they start the car and drive away.

ROUND 3

"Even if Musk gets the price down 50%, I dont see how Tesla will sell a vehicle that will be adopted by the mass market by 2020."

Yeah. Precisely. You don't see. Do you even know what 'mass market' means? Several companies sell mass market vehicles. They sell them to all sorts of Customers. No one sells one car to everyone. Though Volkswagen certainly tried with the Beetle and had some measure of success.

Tesla expects to manufacture 500,000 of the Generation III vehicle in 2020. It is very possible that half of those will be sold in the United States of America. Let's see how that compares to competitors:

     2013 Best Selling Cars in America
       Vehicle                 Total
       Toyota Camry            408,484
       Honda Accord            366,678
       Honda Civic             336,180
       Nissan Altima           320,723
       Toyota Corolla/Matrix   302,180
So 250,000 cars is not likely to crack even the top five in sales.  Interestingly though, it would be just enough to beat #7 through #25 in sales last year.  Are you telling me that Chevrolet Cruze, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Hyundai Sonata, Chevrolet Malibu, Volkswagen Jetta, Toyota Prius, Chevrolet Impala, Kia Optima, Nissan Sentra, Chrysler 200, BMW 3-Series & 4-Series, Kia Soul, Subaru Outback, Nissan Versa, Volkswagen Passat, Mazda 3, Dodge Charger, and Dodge Avenger are all NOT mass market cars?  I'm sure that would be big news to their respective manufacturers.  You should point that out to them on their forums immediately.

Stupid lack of an edit function...


So 250,000 cars is not likely to crack even the top five in sales. Interestingly though, it would be just enough to beat #7 through #25 in sales last year. Are you telling me that Chevrolet Cruze, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Hyundai Sonata, Chevrolet Malibu, Volkswagen Jetta, Toyota Prius, Chevrolet Impala, Kia Optima, Nissan Sentra, Chrysler 200, BMW 3-Series & 4-Series, Kia Soul, Subaru Outback, Nissan Versa, Volkswagen Passat, Mazda 3, Dodge Charger, and Dodge Avenger are all NOT mass market cars? I'm sure that would be big news to their respective manufacturers. You should point that out to them on their forums immediately.

@German_Tesla_Fan, at 120km/h effect of AC is pretty negligible, About 5% of the range. Depends of course of outside temp, It can be pretty close to zero effect or something slightly above that 5%.

a problem i see with current battery tech is the following. as progress is made at the pack level (and most of progress is made there since the cell chemistry is virtually unchanged since its inception), range will increase by increasing the total energy stored in the battery pack. as a result, power deliverable will also increase, so even if the rate or each cell wont change because you have more cells you can deliver more current.

on the flip side, charging time will also increase. current supercharging is about 1.2C which is not aggressive at all at the cell level. lets say it could be doubled (and i dont see why not - even with current technology) so you could fully charge the battery in 30 minutes. that could alleviate things a little but it will still be difficult to push 100 or 150 kWh of energy into the battery in a short amount of time (even if the battery materials can sustain this rate).

German tesla fan is confusing heat with AC (maybe in German they use the same term.) So- GTF, by AC we mean cooling. Power use for cooling is small. Heating DOES affect power more, obviously.

I just got to this line and laughed out loud:
"Real world Range: gasoline cars: 450 miles."

Uh, nope. That is pretty rare, I think. Most gas cars get around 350 miles on a tank. I would not quite advocate the 265 miles figure as real world for the Tesla, but I would give it about 220 to 250.

The factor that pvandeloo is leaving out is cost. Even if we're talking about 250 miles for the mass market Tesla versus 350 miles for the gas car, the fueling cost is about a fourth as much on electric. Many people will make the tradeoff to save a lot of money for a little less range.

" 1) Mass market cars were possible in the 1920s-1970s with a range of less than 200 miles. Several mass market cars still don't have even a 350 mile range, if they have performance anywhere near a Tesla Motors product."

Performance cars are a niche market; they consume too much gasoline and are to expensive for the average citizen.

The technological limitations of the 1920s-1970s are IRRELEVANT! Would you say that horses could be a viable mass market transportation system, because we used them in the 1800s? Of course not.

Same for Tesla: It has to have a 400 mile real world driving range to compete. Nobody will accept a limited driving range because the car is electric.

"2) Mass market cars that you don't fuel up at home have been possible for decades beyond that. So why wouldn't the mass market want a car that has a 'full tank' every day when they awake to go to work, instead of having to leave 20 minutes early to stop for gas once or twice a week...?"

As I statet above, most people live in apartment blocks directly facing public roads without any garage. There is no possiblity at this time for the mass market to charge at home. Nobody will want to spend hours at supercharging stations in the city center. A huge built up of infrastructure would be needed, but who will want to pay for it."

"1) The infrastructure is called the national electrical grid. There is electricity everywhere. There are not gasoline and diesel stations everywhere. Very, very few people are able to refuel at home using petroleum products. Those few usually are powering tractors or crop dusters."

I dont see charges infront of every aparment block or at every office parking space or even at most public parking spaces. Gasoline cars dont need to have private tank stations for every parking lot. You only visit the gas station once every two weeks and fill up the gas tank in 5 minutes. Thats not possible for a TESLA, were you would need hourse to fully charge it."

"Yeah. Precisely. You don't see. Do you even know what 'mass market' means? Several companies sell mass market vehicles. They sell them to all sorts of Customers. No one sells one car to everyone. Though Volkswagen certainly tried with the Beetle and had some measure of success.

Tesla expects to manufacture 500,000 of the Generation III vehicle in 2020. It is very possible that half of those will be sold in the United States of America. Let's see how that compares to competitors:"

You are missing my point and are making a false comparison. These competitiors all have the same combustion engine. So the technology is the SAME!. It is a mass market technology. You are differentiating between different BRANDS. Tesla goal would be to make a car and motivate competitors to do so, to replace the entire gasoline fleet. How a 2020 car will have such compelling technology to replace all of the gasoline cars you listed is a very good question.

So I dont see how Generation 3 is a Mass Market Vehicle. It is a niche Market vehicle and will only capture a small slightly larger pie than the Model S. It wont be a car that has such compelling technology, that it could replace the entire gasoline fleet.

curiosguy: Well, the length of time required to 'refuel' an electric car with a higher capacity battery pack really depends upon what you are calling 'range'... I think of it as 'Maximum Range' versus 'Usable Range'... I believe that as battery packs get larger and larger in overall capacity, drivers will fall into a comfortable pattern of charging that reduces wait times significantly.

If the Tesla Model S had an available 170 kWh battery pack, which weighed the same, because it would use the same number of cells, then it would likely have an EPA rated range that is twice the current amount. That would come to 530 miles total as the Maximum Range.

Let's presume that most people who would go on road trips would not in fact fill to 100%, but would only fill to 90% instead. That would show an available range of 477 miles. Let's also presume that they would not drive the car below 20%, so they would refill with 106 miles remaining, as a buffer. That yields a Usable Range of 371 miles.

If someone were more adventurous, they would indeed do a Maximum Range charge to the full 530 miles. Then they would drive down to 10%, or 53 miles remaining. Thus, you have a cruising range of 477 miles between charges. Please note that the range on the Lexus LS 600h is the highest among hybrid gasoline electric cars in the segment today, with a 466 mile range.

       PERFORMANCE/FUEL ECONOMY AMONG FULL-SIZED LUXURY CARS
     Vehicle                        0-60   MPG   TANK   RANGE 
     2010 Mercedes-Benz CLS550      4.7    16    21.1   337.6
     2010 BMW 760Li                 4.3    15    21.7   325.5
     2010 Lexus LS 600h             6.0    21    22.2   466.2*
     2010 Lexus LS 460              5.4    19    22.2   421.8
     2010 AUDI A8                   5.4    18    23.8   428.4
     2010 AUDI A8 4.2 TDI Quattro   5.2    19    23.8   452.2**
                                                             
        * Gasoline Electric Hybrid
       ** Diesel Fuel

Upon stopping at a Supercharger, you could fill only to 90% and continue. The Superchargers would work just as they do now, delivering tremendous speeds for the first 50% before beginning to taper off... So going from 20% to 70% would take between 20 and 25 minutes -- adding 265 miles. The charge from 70% to 90% might take another 20 minutes -- adding 106 miles. Getting that last 10% for Maximum Range would take another half hour. You might add another fifteen minutes or so, if charging from 10% up.

Here's the fun thing though... If the Superchargers are spaced every ~150 miles from your initial starting point, you can simply leapfrog them with the first strategy, stopping at every other one, traveling ~300 miles per stop. With the second strategy, you could leave home on 100%, skip the next two Superchargers you encounter on the road, and stop at the third one.

You could even do a mix of the strategies if you like. Sort of like the 'Walk One Block, Run Two Blocks' strategy that was employed when you wanted to get home in time to meet curfew. You would just plan out which Superchargers you preferred to stop at, or skip, along the way.

I am rather confident that some day the 85 kWh battery pack we see today will be marveled upon as being as piteously small and inadequate as we currently see the 4.4 kWh battery pack in the Prius PHEV.

A $50K car can be here a lot more quickly than a cheaper one and with incentives and leases and such can be considered "sort of affordable" which will have to do for now. A $30K car will be far down the road, if ever (I would bet on the horse Never).

The more mass market the electrics get, the more charging will be the issue. It will have to be available everywhere and it will have to be faster.

What I find that most interesting about this conversaion is the use of 2020. The actual availability date of the GEN !!! is 2017. To ramp up to mass market by 2020. It's already in the plan and already being tested.

"The actual availability date of the GEN !!! is 2017. To ramp up to mass market by 2020. It's already in the plan"

Well, I think the rollout will be more like 2018, mostly due to delays in the model X rollout (originally late 2013, then late 2014, then 2015).

The Gen III is also relying on the GigaFactory being built and starting production. I suppose the current factory could be used for Gen III batteries in smaller numbers until the GigaFactory comes online, but that would push production back even further.

So, when you say "It's already in the plan", realize that the plan is dynamic due to internal and external realities.

@pvandeloo.ipod

Your premise that a "mass market" EV must match an ICE on refueling time and range is fundamentally flawed. Most people travel <40 miles in a day; 200 miles of range is MORE than sufficient. Any deficit that an EV has in terms of range or recharging time is more than made up for by the lower cost per mile for fuel/maintenance plus the convenience of charging at home vs going to a gas station.

VS

ROUND 4

A Friggin Moron wrote, "Performance cars are a niche market; they consume too much gasoline and are to expensive for the average citizen."

Well, that was the problem with gasoline cars, and among the reasons why they can, and will, be replaced by electric cars. The added expense that is tied to performance is not present with electric cars. The driving experience is BETTER because of the performance aspect. Strange that you would lobby for one of the primary advantages of electric cars to be discounted, disabled, or removed just to prove your invalid point.

Honda did a great job of giving people affordable, safe, fun-to-drive, clean, fuel efficient vehicles -- until they were mandated out of existence in favor of heavier, slower, less fuel efficient cars. Tesla Motors doesn't have that problem -- they can make ALL their cars FUN TO DRIVE and THAT will make people want to buy, and own them.

A Friggin Moron wrote, "Nobody will accept a limited driving range because the car is electric."

That isn't what you said before. You said that people wouldn't accept electric cars -- because they were ELECTRIC. I'm pointing out that people have ALWAYS accepted cars with limited range. It was just a matter of perception, because they just got used to going to a gas station all the time. People didn't even notice in the slightest how often they had to refuel until the early 1970s when gasoline shout up to the lofty heights of fifty-three cents per gallon.

Oh, but you don't want to talk about 'ancient history' because it is too easy to prove you WRONG that way... Well, let's look at more recent data, shall we? The Tesla Generation III vehicles will be built to compete directly with the BMW 3-Series vehicles. Let's see how many of these vehicles in the past thirty years have regularly had a cruising range of at least 400 miles, shall we?

            BMW 3-Series
     Year   MPG   Range   Usable* 
     1985   21    344     258
     1990   18    295     221
     1995   20    328     246
     2000   21    350     262
     2005   21    357     268
     2010   20    322     242
     * Presumes Refueling at 
       1/4 tank remaining

Oh, wait... Exactly NONE of the gasoline powered BMW 3-Series cars have had an EPA rated range in excess of 400 miles in the past thirty years. How ya like me now?

A Friggin Moron wrote, "As I statet above, most people live in apartment blocks directly facing public roads without any garage. There is no possiblity at this time for the mass market to charge at home. Nobody will want to spend hours at supercharging stations in the city center. A huge built up of infrastructure would be needed, but who will want to pay for it."

You can't have it both ways. Make up your mind already. People who live in apartments live in urban centers. People who live in urban centers do not drive 400 miles a day. They drive, on average, 40 miles a day at most. Five work days, times 40 miles, comes to 200 miles driven. Therefore, a range of 250 miles or more would take care of all their driving needs during the week. With a 400 mile range, things would be that much better -- enough mileage for two weekends and five work days in between.

There would be no need to sit the car somewhere 'for hours' just to charge, even if someone didn't have access to home charging. They could plug in outside the doughnut shop each morning, for the same mythical 'five minutes' they would have otherwise spent at a gas station. They could plug in at a local restaurant while eating a burger. They could plug in at the local mall when they go shopping for an hour. They could plug in when they arrive at work, then move the car when they took their mid-morning, lunchtime, or afternoon break. And why do you overlook the fact that 90% of the time, any personal vehicle is parked anyway? It might as well be charging while it is parked.

A Friggin Moron wrote, "You only visit the gas station once every two weeks and fill up the gas tank in 5 minutes."

Remember when I said you can't have it both ways? Well, you still can't. If your car has a 400 mile range, and you only fill it up once every two weeks, that means you really aren't driving very much at all. This means you expect people to drive even less than the national average of 40 miles per day... You are putting it at under 29 miles per day. Geez. If you presume that a person fills up when they are down to 1/4 tank, that means they have only driven 300 miles, or less than 22 miles per day. Criminy.

First off, if you live in an urban area, and only need to travel 21-29 miles or less per day, I would suggest taking the bus, the train, or a cab. You do NOT need a car. At all.

Secondly, are you SERIOUS? Dude, that works out to between 600 and 800 miles per month. That's only 7,200 to 9,600 miles per year! FYI, if you would actually do some research before coming up with ridiculous arguments of this sort, you just might realize that the national average is 15,000 miles per year, 1,250 miles per month, just over 300 miles a week. So you would be going to the gas station at least ONCE a week.

Third, none of this changes the fact that it only takes HOURS to charge if you do NOT at least trickle charge somewhere. You are acting as if you want the car to go off and charge itself without any input, effort, planning, or responsibility from you whatsoever. By the parameters you've suggested so far, NO car should have ever been adopted by the mass market.

A Friggin Moron wrote, "It wont be a car that has such compelling technology, that it could replace the entire gasoline fleet."

Wow. So... Let me get this straight... You won't consider the Tesla Generation III a success, unless every other vehicle maker on the market goes belly up, cries '¡No mas!', and doesn't sell another unit by 2020? You are undoubtedly a world class friggin moron who is hoping to one day descend the ranks of stupidity to become a lowly troll.

Go away.

@Red Sage, since we're talking "mass market", those cars in your table aren't really the thing--they're pretty expensive high end. My point is about the 20+ gallon gas tanks. For smaller cars, they usually have about a 12-13 gallon tank. So even at 30 mpg, they're not going to get to 400 miles on a tank.

@nwdiver93 - yes, that top picture can be seen every weekend at certain gas stations in the Bay Area.
Some because there not enough gas stations, some because the gas is 2 cents cheaper... guess how much longer the lines would be if the gas was 459 cents cheaper.

Gen tres sales will go ballistic if Tesla is able to sell 200 mile range for less than $40,000. By the time it arrives, gasoline will be $4.50 per gallon and ICE traps will be looking for electro-relief.

Clarification of Purpose...

Sorry, Rocky_H... Thus far I have only conversed here with the OP, and curiousguy... I don't think I had read your posts yet. Hold on...

OK, in my response to curiousguy, I was really just pointing out that I don't believe that recharge times via Supercharger would be longer than they are today. Just as the Model S 85 charges faster than a Model S 60, a mythical Model S 135 would charge faster still. I just grabbed a chart I had already saved on my system of higher end vehicles that I know the Model S competes with for comparison. That whole post was basically an 'aside', not really about the GIII topic at all. I apologize for the confusion in that regard (though I think the same principles will hold true with larger batteries on GIII).

When it comes to fuel capacity on Mass Market cars... It really varies quite a bit. The Top 25 vehicles sold in 2013 each moved at least 90,000 units. The Top 10 included Toyota Camry, Honda Accord, Nissan Altima, Ford Fusion, and Hyundai Sonata. Here's how they stack up on range:

        Mass Market Fuel Economy
        Among 2013 Best Sellers
     Vehicle           Tank   Range 
     Hyundai Sonata    18.5   463
     Nissan Altima     18.0   450 
     Honda Accord      17.2   430
     Ford Fusion       16.5   429
     Toyota Camry      17.0   425 
     Chevrolet Cruze   15.6   468
     Honda Civic       13.2   436
     Toyota Corolla    13.2   422
     Ford Focus        12.4   384
     Hyundai Elantra   12.8   358 
     Ford Taurus FWD*  19.0   437
     Nissan Maxima*    20.0   440
     * Not Among the Top 25

Of the cars shown here, only the two that have a less than 13 gallon fuel tank, Ford Focus and Hyundai Elantra do not crest the 400 mile range mark. I added the Ford Taurus and Nissan Maxima for the sake of comparison, though neither were in the 2013 Top 25.

I reiterate that these are not the targets for Tesla Generation III. At least not initially, though it will certainly steal some sales from them as people move up-market. Perhaps something else will appear in the future to take them on directly. The GIII will go head-to-head against BMW 3-Series, AUDI A4/A6, Volvo S40/S60, and Cadillac ATS.

Huh. I guess I'm too used to compact cars, and haven't looked at fuel economy of really new cars in a while. It seems 16-18 gallons is more the norm for midsized, and over 400 is pretty standard.

RED Sage:

Again: People would like to conviniently recharge, have at least the same range as a gasoline car and all of that at the same or better price point. Generation 3 wont deliver this and thus is not a mass market car.

"There would be no need to sit the car somewhere 'for hours' just to charge, even if someone didn't have access to home charging. They could plug in outside the doughnut shop each morning, for the same mythical 'five minutes' they would have otherwise spent at a gas station. They could plug in at a local restaurant while eating a burger. They could plug in at the local mall when they go shopping for an hour. They could plug in when they arrive at work, then move the car when they took their mid-morning, lunchtime, or afternoon break. And why do you overlook the fact that 90% of the time, any personal vehicle is parked anyway? It might as well be charging while it is parked."

I am not overlooking this fact. However, presently, the charging infrastructure does not exist. A mass market solution requires mass market charging infrastructure (read: charging stations at almost every parking space).

Secondly people also want to recharge quickly while on a roadtrip and not wait for 30min to charge up another 150 miles or so. It doesnt matter that long distance driving is only 2% of the driving needs. If I have to choose between a car that excels at long distance driving and one where I have to spend many hours recharging, I will pic the former. Especially if it is at the same price point.

These are huge problems that you are overlooking.

"Strange that you would lobby for one of the primary advantages of electric cars to be discounted, disabled, or removed just to prove your invalid point."

No. You pointed out that gasoline performance cars also have a limited range and that thus they are similar to the Model S, which also is a performance car. My point was that, even though this might be the case, it does not make the Generation 3 a mass market car. Thus the comparision is irrelevant.

"Oh, but you don't want to talk about 'ancient history' because it is too easy to prove you WRONG that way... "

Same goes for your historical comparisions. Nobody cares, that in the past people also had to accept a limited driving range. Consumers will compare Tesla to CURRENT! combustion engine technology, not PAST! combustion enging technology and driving ranges. Yes a Model S could compete with a horse of the 1800s, but that doesnt make the Model S or Generation 3 a revolutionary mass market car in todays environment.

The main problems have not been addressed by the Generation 3 (remember the car has to be better than the current combustion engine solution to be called a mass market and not a niche car):

1) Charging Time: For roadtrips it takes 30 min to recharge 150 or so miles. Totally uncompetitive and not suitable for the mass market.

In cities the charging time is only a non issue if you have access to charging stations at your parking space. Presently this is not the case for most parking spaces. A mass market solution would therefore need a MASSIVE built up of charging infrastructe at every city parking spot (infront of aparment blocks in the city and at office parking spaces). There are many problems that need to be solved in this arena, and Tesla does not have the funds for it.

2) Range: Again is a problem for roadtrips. People do not want to recharge constantly even if it only take 5 min (which it currently obviously does not). They will compare Teslas car to combusiton enginge cars which offer up to 400 mile ranges.

3) Price: Currently not competitive with gasoline cars even if you take into account gas savings (thats why Musk wants to bring down battery costs).

Iowa92x:

Gasoline here in California is already $4.50/gallon, and with cap-and-trade taking effect in January, might creep up another two bits or so.....

@pvandeloo.ipod

You're stuck in the old ICE paradigm... complaining about "only" ~200 miles of range as a fast charge time of ~30 min makes as much sense as complaining about a top speed of 133mph. I'm unlikely to have the desire much less the need to go >133mph. I also have no desire to drive >3 hours without a 30 minute break. For everyday driving I don't even pay attention to my range...

I've got ~45k miles on my P85 including trips from NM=>Chicago=>CA=>WA I've never run out of charge. The mass market EV won't fit the old ICE paradigm... but it doesn't have to.

My RX 350 does not get more than 200-210 miles on a full tank. That's one of the reasons it's being replaced by MS and not another gas guzzler. Most Americans actually don't live in appartment blocks so charging at home should not be an issue. Even if you live in a condo it's not that difficult to get an outlet.

Given everything that's going on in the world right now, oil is not likely to get cheaper so the cost of gas will rise much faster than cost of electricity.

For middle class a 30-40k Gen 3 will be an easy sell to replace their 20k+ ICE cars.

Pvandeloo, your arguments have been refuted by over 40,000+ of practical users of the Model S and Roadster, and it keeps increasing fast by the day.

There are already millions of recharging workstations deployed. They are in our homes, on my garage I don't even need to install a special charger, since I arrive and leave the car charging around 10PM. That works for the vast majority of people. In apartment complexes they are installing charges for EV charging. In the morning the beauty is ready to go. In the near future, as wireless charges advances I predict it will be even more convenient.

I drive (for pleasure I must say) twice a year along the US West coast. I would drive about 200 miles and make a stop anyway. I am probably an exception here and I enjoy long drives (1,000 miles one way).

As already proven by studies and by thousands of practical drivers, the vast majority of cases will not exceed 50 miles/day.

A mass market car doesn't mean it will be a cheap car afford by everybody. It will mean it will reach a significant number of the population. As I already discussed over and over, it will be a competitor against the BMW 3 series, which is not a cheap car either.

Hmmm... Someone didn't go away...

     Range   Vehicle
     379     2014 BMW 335i xDrive Sedan
     379     2014 BMW 335i xDrive Gran Turismo
     384     2014 Cadillac ATS
     395     2014 BMW 335i
     435     2014 AUDI A4
     427     2014 Volvo S60
     426     2014 Volvo S80
     554     2014 AUDI A6

The Lowly Troll wrote, "However, presently, the charging infrastructure does not exist."

International Status of EV Charging Stations

The Lowly Troll wrote, "Secondly people also want to recharge quickly while on a roadtrip..."

DC Fast Charging Stations

Battery Swapping

The Lowly Troll wrote, "My point was that, even though this might be the case, it does not make the Generation 3 a mass market car."

Your point is irrelevant because you refuse to accept the fact that EVERY TESLA MOTORS VEHICLE will ALWAYS BE a PERFORMANCE CAR. Not some, not half, but ALL of them. Being a Performance Car does NOT prohibit mass market sales, as nearly 120,000 US purchasers of the BMW 3-Series could attest last year. By the way... 250,000 is more than 120,000, for future reference.

The Lowly Troll wrote, "Nobody cares, that in the past people also had to accept a limited driving range. Consumers will compare Tesla to CURRENT! combustion engine technology, not PAST!"

Yes, and when they compare the notion of spending between $0.00 and $6.00 to 'fill up' overnight, and a grand total of $0.00 to 'fill up' on the road, they will 'do the math' and choose to buy a Tesla instead of being held at gunpoint while hearing the words, "Six bucks a gallon! Please PAY before you PUMP!". When they drive an ICE, then drive a Tesla, they'll choose the Tesla. When they shop for a $32,000 ICE and test drive a $43,000 Tesla, they will order the Tesla. This is what happens in real world, direct comparisons of the technology, in the PRESENT DAY but 'you don't see'...

The Lowly Troll wrote, "...remember the car has to be better than the current combustion engine solution to be called a mass market and not a niche car..."

Man... [SIERRA] you and your ridiculous, thoroughly unreasonable parenthetical qualifiers! You knew [DELTA] well that everything you would write after that would make no [DELTA] sense whatsoever. So why would you DARE try to get me to agree to such nonsense? I already refuted each and every one of your idiotic points and yet, you remain relentlessly tied to terminal stupidity incarnate.

Why don't you just go away?

Hmmm... Someone didn't go away...

     Range   Vehicle
     379     2014 BMW 335i xDrive Sedan
     379     2014 BMW 335i xDrive Gran Turismo
     384     2014 Cadillac ATS
     395     2014 BMW 335i
     435     2014 AUDI A4
     427     2014 Volvo S60
     426     2014 Volvo S80
     554     2014 AUDI A6

The Lowly Troll wrote, "However, presently, the charging infrastructure does not exist."

International Status of EV Charging Stations

The Lowly Troll wrote, "Secondly people also want to recharge quickly while on a roadtrip..."

DC Fast Charging Stations

Battery Swapping

The Lowly Troll wrote, "My point was that, even though this might be the case, it does not make the Generation 3 a mass market car."

Your point is irrelevant because you refuse to accept the fact that EVERY TESLA MOTORS VEHICLE will ALWAYS BE a PERFORMANCE CAR. Not some, not half, but ALL of them. Being a Performance Car does NOT prohibit mass market sales, as nearly 120,000 US purchasers of the BMW 3-Series could attest last year. By the way... 250,000 is more than 120,000, for future reference.

The Lowly Troll wrote, "Nobody cares, that in the past people also had to accept a limited driving range. Consumers will compare Tesla to CURRENT! combustion engine technology, not PAST!"

Yes, and when they compare the notion of spending between $0.00 and $6.00 to 'fill up' overnight, and a grand total of $0.00 to 'fill up' on the road, they will 'do the math' and choose to buy a Tesla instead of being held at gunpoint while hearing the words, "Six bucks a gallon! Please PAY before you PUMP!". When they drive an ICE, then drive a Tesla, they'll choose the Tesla. When they shop for a $32,000 ICE and test drive a $43,000 Tesla, they will order the Tesla. This is what happens in real world, direct comparisons of the technology, in the PRESENT DAY but 'you don't see'...

The Lowly Troll wrote, "...remember the car has to be better than the current combustion engine solution to be called a mass market and not a niche car..."

Man... [SIERRA] you and your ridiculous, thoroughly unreasonable parenthetical qualifiers! You knew [DELTA] well that everything you would write after that would make no [DELTA] sense whatsoever. So why would you DARE try to get me to agree to such nonsense? I already refuted each and every one of your idiotic points and yet, you remain relentlessly tied to terminal stupidity incarnate.

Why don't you just go away?

"Your point is irrelevant because you refuse to accept the fact that EVERY TESLA MOTORS VEHICLE will ALWAYS BE a PERFORMANCE CAR. Not some, not half, but ALL of them. Being a Performance Car does NOT prohibit mass market sales, as nearly 120,000 US purchasers of the BMW 3-Series could attest last year. By the way... 250,000 is more than 120,000, for future reference."

You keep misstating my position Red Sage. Lets recap our discussion regarding performance cars.

Initially I stated, that Teslas range needs to increase to appeal to a mass market audience.

You replied: "Mass market cars were possible in the 1920s-1970s with a range of less than 200 miles. Several mass market cars still don't have even a 350 mile range, if they have performance anywhere near a Tesla Motors product."

With this statement you made the argument, that despite limited range Teslas electric cars will replace gasoline cars.

To which I replied: Just because yesterday a limited range technology was mass market, doesnt mean that today this will be enough to capture a significant portion of the market. Why? Because today there are cars with greater range than 265 EPA ratet that are more attractive.

Also, due to limitations of GASOLINE performance cars (cost, range, and practicality) they are not mass market vehicles. A comparison to Gasoline performance cars is nonsensical, because they themselves are not mass market cars. They are a niche market. Thus they dont prove your initial point, that the current range of electric cars is sufficient to capture a significant share of the market.

I never said that because of Teslas performance, they cant become mass market. Quite the contrary, performance is a enabler, as long as you dont sacrifice affordability and range (like gasoline performance cars do).


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