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NYT article on EVs and the Dutch..

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/world/europe/dutch-put-electric-cars-t...

A reasonably balanced article on cold driving EVs and how the Dutch have significant incentives. Should be a great market for Tesa.

GenIII will sweep the country.

ONLY if Gen III has a little flair. If it turns out to be a butt ugly "leaf" like econobox with >80 mile range I'd guess it will fare no better than the Focus EV, MiEV, Coda, or Leaf. The LAST thing we need is another overpriced not practical econobox BEV no matter who builds it!

IMHO Gen III needs to be "at least" a mid-size by todays standards, have decent style (not quirky looking) with at least an epa range of 150-200 miles 60kw?

IMHO the Focus electric fails because it costs $39,200 when it's gas counterpart is $16-18k The typical Focus "or any other inexpensive" economy/compact car buyer just can't afford and does not see a $40k value I know I don't

$40k gets you a nicely equipped Lincoln MKZ. $35,925 is the base price of an MKZ "including the hybrid". Put a 60kw pack in an MKZ or Fusion it would probably sell like hotcakes @ $39,200 I'd already have one!

I'm giving TM the benefit of the doubt. Gen III will not be "butt ugly". :)

Remember, Gen III is not going to be an econobox. It's going to be a BMW 3 series competitor.

@ trydesky

lol!! I hope you're right. It also IMHO needs to be say .. Nissan Altima, class sized and sheet metal designed by a designer! not an engineer!

Elon sez it will look a lot like the S, but smaller. Its mileage will likely be similar. Likely Supercharger-capable.

It will sweep the country.

Franz von Holzhausen said he will be more distinct with the Gen3 styling. If he can can get a drag coefficient of 0.24 with a MS like Gen3 styling, but e.g. 0.22 with a more inventive styling then Elon would be the last person on earth not to go with the more efficient design.
The other big question for Europe is the connector: if TM goes with the new EU standard ( Merkel may say: my way or no highway ) then the US style SC level is not possible ( just about half the rate ).
I could imagine 2 versions of Gen3
- 40kWh EPA 180 miles @ $30K
- 60kWh EPA 260 miles @ $40k
+ options

@ Kleist

Well, I can tell you this. If you want to sell the Gen3 to the majority of Dutch people, then this vehicle may not cost too much. Your examples could be just fine. But the price should not be more than that.

@Kleist
yes, I have to agree with styling, however I think there will be more than 2 battery options, more likely 3 options as Model S. Maybe 40, 70, 100kWh... just my guess. And the top price with biggest battery and all options would go much higher than $50.000.
And I hope it will be possible to charge it everywhere, no matter what the connector(s) will be. Tesla EVs can win only if they are as convinient as ICEs with similar prices as ICEs (at least in their class - BMW rivaling).

Starting at ~$30k, but no upper limit ending with 600mile range double-motor 0-60 in 2.5 secs and top speed at 200mph. Maybe.

Timo, 200mph top speed, wont happen. It would need a transmission to go any faster than 130 or so

@Kleist - The Tesla SC is not compatible with anything, it is proprietary. Nothing to stop Tesla to equipt Gen III with the new EU standard connector and be Tesla SC capable.

GEN III ? That's the Apple Icar, isn't it?

@Benz - Gen3 is not for the "majority". You only design what you actually can produce and at this point TM doesn't have the means to make millions of cars. But on the other hand you are right there should be some stripped down versions... in the US we get only the high end version of a model in most cases and forget that other countries also have stripped down versions.
@Jolinar - cheaper means less weight and less battery. There is no way around it. Challenge is to do more (range) with less (battery).

@Tiebreaker - I need to check but I think the EU connector does not support 90kW at this point, but I am sure it will sometimes in the future.

@Runar, car does have transmission, it is called reduction gear. Without it 14k RPM translated directly to wheels car would go near mach 1.5 (about 1800km/h). You only need power to reach 200mph.

Timo;
Not with very small wheels.

Got me thinking, car reduction gear is 9.73.1 with 21 inch 245/35R21 tires with circumference 2394 mm (21 inch diameter rim + 2*3.5inch tire sidewall height * Pi) and 130mph top speed (209km/h) you get...

209000000/2394 = 87 302 rotations / hour = 1455 RPM * 9.73 = 14157 RPM redline for motor. Seems that performance version squeezes out a bit more from the motor than 14000 RPM:s.

One Google site calculates tire circumference to be only 2212 mm for 245/35R21 tires which would mean even bigger RPM: 15322 RPM.

Does anybody know if performance S has different reduction gear, or do they simply get more out of the motor RPM-wise?

Gen III cannot have any new battery technology since it is in design now for 2015, so has to go with what exists today. 400 or 600 miles is impossible. It will be tough to get to 200, as weight and range go hand in hand. More range equals bigger battery equals more weight. The S battery is 8 feet long, 5 feet wide and that's how it gets its range but also makes for a very large car. If the Gen III is to be smaller and half the cost of the S, and that is the design goal, then range must be lower, probably much lower. Think Leaf, which just reoptimized its battery technology for smaller format EV's yet still has a hard time breaking 100 miles range. Range for EV's is still a rock and hard place technological conundrum. TM figured out packaging better, but everyone is usng the same basic underlying battery approach, just with varying kw capacity based on package size and price point. The calculus gets easier with larger unit volumes, but remains the major factor limiting EV success.

$10 says it has 200+ mi. EPA range at the top end.

The article suggests gas prices are 5 times the electricity prices for a similar journey in Holland. Let's see: 14km/l at 1,85/l comes to 13ct per km. 4,5km/kW at 0,25/kW comes to 5,5ct per km. 2,4 times is a better estimate. This is less favorable for the ev (sadly).

Well my car (BMW 5) is more like 9 km/l so more like 21 ct per km.
For electricity we pay 21,740 ct at 200 wh/km = 4.55 ct per km

Would be a factor of 4.78

Aside from this...
For me the savings are more in the income tax implications, which is 0% for EV whereas for ICE cars 24% of value of the car get's taxed as income, which would boil down to about 1,20 per km!
In case of a private car one should also factor in things like road-tax, which for me would be about 8 ct per km.

$10 that it has 300 with same conditions Model S has 300 mile range. I bet top end "affordable car" will be able to use SC network with ease.

Kleist: Nothing stops them from having the Mennekes-connector on one side and the Tesla SC connector on the other. And the Combo connector supports up to 200A in DC-high mode (http://www.mennekes.de/en/latest0.html?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=543cHash=8...)

If DC-high and DC-Mid can be parallelled, it will support a whopping 340A...


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