Once the battery goes out of warranty, and diminished charge life becomes annoying, what is the expected replacement price (for each battery size)?
Hte replacement cost was 8K, 10K and 12K for the 40, 60, and 85. This is proboply close to the true cost, before the huge markup for the larger battery.
Prices from here: http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/2013-model-s-price-increase
There's 8 yrs of interest on top of that, plus an estimated 8%/annum drop in cost per kWh. So you can at least double those figures for Present Value.
It will be a fraction of the cost of replacing or extending the life for 8 years of a Panamera/like car. Guaranteed.
Because the Dollar is becoming more worthless, it is difficult to place a number on the price of a battery in 8 years. However, I reacently recieved a Newsletter from my Alma, in it an article covered their work on automotive propulsion batterys. The belief is that a that some of the longest range batterys (85 kw) of today (300 mi) will be replaced with batterys of 600 to 1000 mi range in the near future. A lot depends on how long it takes to go from the lab to the production line. Fuyture storage could also be in the form of Super Capacitors. Capacitor charge rate is nearly instant. Dependant only on the source power availability volume. Certainly faster than filling the gas tank. And likely very much cheaper.
Dr Bob; As discussed often here, capacitors are fast, but shallow. They have poor "energy density", both "gravitmetric" and "volumetric", but mostly the latter. They are light but take up lots of space, making them impossibly awkward for cars. They can improve efficiency and durability by acting as buffers, and sparing batteries the strains of spikes in charging and discharging, though.
From lab to automotive quantities 10 years min. You have to realize that TM alone this year consumes about 5% of all Li ion produced in the world (160M out of 3.2B in all shapes and forms).
I posted something similar to this yesterday in another thread, but it's relevant here, too. Basically, I think people are greatly underestimating the complexity and difficulty of moving from one battery system to another, that is, you'll never be able to 'simply' drop in an upgraded, new-technology pack once yours has degraded. The software and some hardware are made for your sized pack and battery chemistry. Any battery change will require other changes, probably many, many changes, and perhaps so many that it won't be feasible. Put it this way, according to TM there will be no option for 40kW battery owners to upgrade to a larger 60 or 85kW pack. If we can't even do that, what are the chances of upgrading to a completely different battery chemistry, for some unknown future technology? Slim...
I have never though about getting a bigger battery when it becomes available. I plan to trade up to the 200Kw MS (when available (10 years?)). I want all the new features I don't have now, that my future MS will provide.
Reminds me of a problem I once had with a used Civic. It kept blowing fuses and electrics. My favorite service guy spent hours trying to find the cause, and finally replaced a $1 battery fuse, refused other payment, and sent me to an auto electric specialist. He found the car was actually a rebuild, and a 90A Toyota alternator had been installed instead of the 60A Honda original! The improvement was negative.
That uber-honest mechanic, Ken Chu, is still in business in Vancouver, BC, I believe, as Samson Motors. I have referred many there over the years. :)
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