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Milestones

With current production of Model S at about 4,000 and Total Tesla Vehicles output at about 6,600:

Currently: More cars produced than any other EV only manufacturer - closest competitor, REVA at a total of about 4,000 cars over several years.

Mid Feb 2013: Model S produced 5,200 - double the number of classic Tesla Roadsters

Early April 2013: Model S produced over 8,000 - Model S line becomes profitable

End of 2013: With annual production of over 20,000 (I suspect it will be closer to 24,000) numbers come in range of the Chevy Volt (30,000 in 2012)

Is that 8k in April counting the 3k or so from last quarter? If it is, it shouldn't, those are last years.

I believe the quote from Elon was along the lines of "8k PER YEAR for Model S to be profitable". 2013 isn't an issue with close to 16k reservations on the books, but Tesla needs to keep an eye on 2014 and beyond for Model S sales & deliveries.

TM seems to be on pace to have 3 months or so unfilled orders at any time, as per plan. Which is to say, almost 10K unfilled at next Y/E.
If so, unless reservations stop cold at that point, 2014 is a slam dunk.

I am rolling 2012 into 2013 as 2012 was more ramp up and there was no expectation of profit. If you do not like my treatment you can move the date to mid May... Being able to produce and sell 8,000 is a good milestone - in the range of DMC-12 total production and no signs of serious trouble ahead. 8,000 in a year means profitablity so mid May 2013 - 8,000 in 2013, 10,500 total produced... Every car thereafter is making up for the loses of 2012 and with the reservations already made (with a cushion for cancellations) 16,000 total production is already sold, just have to produce them and get them out there.

Reservations seem to be continuing and will likely pick up as wait times decrease, browsers will turn into buyers when they see others receiving their MS and enjoying it. The Volt had a long wait list, now after 49,000 have been produced you can buy them without waiting and 2012 production was the highest yet, almost double 2011. Not something you do for 'a car nobody wants', GM has learned from the EV1 debacle it seems.

Tesla is a better brand, better styling, better sales technique, quality standards high from the very beginning so even if Model S cost more than the Chevy Volt it may sell nearly as many... consistently. Tesla is the the only brand that can make you salivate for a 4 door! But as I have said, the real fun begins when the new Roadster comes out!


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