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Tesla as an opportunity of investment

I belive that all people that are reading this post think that Tesla is a great Car Company, the most advanced, the most innoative and the most oriented at the future.
This is the reason for which I'm evaluating tesla as an opportunity of investment and i would like to discuss with you about this.

@TeslaLover,
I am long TSLA and have recommended it before.
Do read this recent article (link below) - Dr. Allen may not be right, but he does bring up points to consider if you are not a very experienced investor.
Here's a quote from his article:
"we come up with a market cap for Tesla as a U.S. car manufacturer of $17.5 million. That's quite a bit lower than the $4.4 billion current market cap value.
In fact, Tesla's current market value is 250 times higher than it would be if it were being valued as a car manufacturer rather than an idea whose time is about to come."

I do not agree with his using Ford or GM as a comparison since, at the least, Tesla should be compared with high-end, specialist manufacturers... and of course there are some who think TSLA is the next Apple.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1201271-how-to-play-the-tesla-motors-ear...

thanks kkiri !!

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11844916/1/tesla-triumphs-but-questions-r...

This article points to the possibility of a hi level of cancellations or deferment. If reservations are 12,000, how is it possible for deliveries to have been accelerated to 30 day? Even if the production rated doubled to 800/week.

They are producing the parts for the S since 9 months...stamping etc... I think, there are parts in this factory for thousands of cars. If they fixed their problems (quality issues)...they now can straight push the cars out.

Could this be the reason?

How long will the squeeze last?

3 weeks? More or less... 20 mio shares needs to get buyed

My overall assessment for a future stock appreciation explosion : Tesla needs to start promoting the genIII to the general public right now. If awaress gets to the level where I think it can, reservation nunbers will be of historic proportions! Show how much money is being saved by real Tesla owners right now. The thousands of miles traveled for free or extremely low cost. Don't worry about the brown outs of summer because its solar power... Drive on. Maintence? Longevity? Not much to replace parts and batteries have shown modest increases in range over time thus far for some owners. Dont be captive to dishonest mechanics ever gain, just pull the logs on their ass. MS might be a car for the 1% , but its only a preview of what is to come for the rest of us... The savings will be well worth the required adjustment in driving behavior. Hell yeah, the vast majority of middle America car owners would start charging at night and slow down if it means they don't have to be a slave to the gas station and its ever fluctuating fuel prices. Not to mention the wifi updates that improve the car, the amazing control you get from having instant torque, the impeccable safety ratings, and zero emissions contributing to the stink of your garage to name a few...

There is no comparison to the value proposition of genIII for the average citizen. This is the promise Tesla's market cap will reflect now and until it happens... America will be be waiting, cash in hand.

If the earnings tomorrow are good, and the reservations have not evaporated, then the shorts will try to exit at the same time. Significant close above $40/s and, they will have to cover within a few days (3-5). With 25% of the shares short as of the end last month, they will have a hard time covering since a lot of the shares like the insiders's shares are locked.

I think the CNBC test boosted the stock, but the real proof are tomorrow's numbers.

The guidance will play the biggest part tomorrow I think. If they set up a surprise big year end goal, all bets are off... Reservation numbers will become an issue for q3 earnings call I'm feeling. Not too much now...

jk;
TM must, and does, pace its marketing to its productive and capital capacity. What you describe leads to classic "overpromise, under-deliver" catastrophe. Even with the tight and exclusive focus on Model S it had, TM got almost racked by a mere 2-month hiccup in its ramp up. Imagine if its production needs and targets were 10X as high!

It is in fact moving at auto industry lightspeed already. If that is exceeded, it will go backwards in time and vanish from view.

There is no precident for Telsa's situation that one could extrapolate from the auto industry with regards to growth. Very different society and world situation, what history could you compare when the first auto came out? The horse and buggy trade? Tesla is more comparable to the history of energy than the car...

I feel to get over the hump of skepticism of general public, ready doesn't see the true value of electric vehicle(of which just happen to be battery powered right now) their has to be a long lead time for educating and selling genIII. Doesn't mean you have to produce it right now, just have to start showing the sense of it all with real number regardless of the market using it right now...

This genIII is for keeps. It's the thing that will need to be remembered when growing pains get magnified even more soon...

Yes, it is for keeps. But it doesn't appear out of thin air. Several production lines, and 'tech support', must be ready to roll before they start a-braggin'. Managing THAT ramp-up will require a far more mature company in many respects.

Tomorrow afternoon is going to be fascinating.

Brian -- do you know when the 10-K will be available? Before the call by chance?

In order for GenIII to be practical and affordable, we need a significant advance in battery technology. The energy density will have to double a significant lower cost/KW-hr. Not sure when that will happen.

In the meantime, besides installing more SC, Tesla could improve Model S+X. Software to condition the battery remotely and warm/cool the car using energy directly from the charger. GPS could upgraded to give route solutions showing where the car can be charged, expected queue time, etc. In the next iteration, the car could be made lighter using stronger Al alloys, etc. Sell 50,000 cars/year and it is a nice business with good cash flow tile Gen III kicks in.

I think, given the time required for the Gen III, Tesla should consider a "Model S compact" (with a better name of course). Same S platform but shorter, lighter, no optional third row, a little narrower, topping out at perhaps 65kWh.

This car would be aimed a bit lower than the standard S, but from being lighter would maintain high performance. I see it as being better adapted to overseas markets, especially Europe, where cars are more expensive and large cars are not so practical. Would also appeal in some parts of the US.

The design could be done to achieve maximum parts commonality with the S, including doors, front fenders, front and rear lights, bucket seats, drive train, computers, and software.

Which reminds me, it doesn't make sense that the 40kWh Model S is not sold in Europe, where distances are shorter and people drive less.

@ danielccc

Next time on the road "look around you" MOST people don't drive "high performance" cars. IMHO too much emphasis is placed on sheer performance when in reality most families drive rather ordinary cars Taurus, Camry, Maxima, Altima, Malibu, Fusion, Accord, and the list goes on and on. None are "High Performance" cars yet Camry and Taurus have both been #1 sellers in the U.S. at one time or another.

Gen III MUST be affordable with "near" ICE like capability or it will just be another high priced BEV "STILL" on the bleeding edge of Joe Car Buyer. I don't care if the car goes 0-60 in a heartbeat, Yes it's nice "I guess" but if that were what everyone is looking for then surely Camry would NEVER be as popular as it was or is.

Gen III CANNOT be a "subcompact" It must be a family sized car that is usable to get the kids to school, grocery shop, seat at least 5 and have some cargo capacity. The most popular car has NEVER been the fastest from 0-60, It's always been a functional practical car.

Gen III must be such that for the first time some families and individuals could consider it their "only" or primary car in their stable. If Tesla wants thousands of BEV's on the road then they need to make Gen III practical and leave the 0-60 stuff to the $70k super cars as most don't need it and can't afford to pay a premium to get it.

All I need it to get to work, the bank, the grocery store, the school, out to dinner, and once in awhile a weekend getaway! I'll take RANGE over face stretching performance any day and if the sales figures carry any weight ... so will lot's of others.

Sorry for the previous post "a bit off topic" to say the least My Bad. should have been posted elsewhere. But hey! I did snap up some more TSLA stock when it dipped on friday though!! And I'm looking long .. very long.

Superliner, I get what you are saying. The point is that Gen III needs cheaper batteries than now available, certainly at least from Tesla's current vendor, Panasonic.

Also, Gen III is a 20X move in volume, to get to 400K cars per year.

So no Gen III on the roads till 2016 at the earliest.

My "S compact" is not that car. It's not even compact, much less subcompact. It's just a slightly smaller S that would do better internationally, where American "family sized" cars are considered huge and impractical on city streets, and where per cap income is somewhat lower, while duties etc, make cars more expensive.

It would be high performance because it would still be an S, just a variant of the S.

Daniel:

I think that your idea of a model s variant is really good, but looking at the european market it's better develop a smallest car, with the design of a model s and the dimension of a ford fiesta. obviously it have to maintain the power and the benefits of a electric engine, something like a 50/60 kw. A car like that is the Renault zoe (search it on google). you know, a car that can buy a boy of 22 years old like me...

talking about the stock market.... +6 % yesterday !!! today is the day, the 40$ resistence will be tested again and probably broken if the balance will be good, i'm waiting...

@ Superliner

"But hey! I did snap up some more TSLA stock when it dipped on friday though!! And I'm looking long .. very long."

That's the way to do it.

This is the assortment that tesla must have to cover the EV market (exeption for the mini-van)
Link:
http://www.renault-ze.com

Tesla Motors (TSLA) cracks $40 for the first time ever in premarket trading, moving up 1.2%.

According to a 13G filing with the SEC on Feb. 14, 2013, Fidelity Investments has a 15% (14.99) stake in Tesla.

@jackhub,

Interestingly, in their 'Equity Rating Score", Fidelity rates TSLA as "very bearish" with a score of 0.6 on a scale of 10.
Despite this, several of us have each accumulated about 1% of the 3 mo. avg share volume - yes, guilty as charged - we are rabid fans and "addicts" of the Tesla narcotic.
Fidelity states:
"The Equity Summary Score is an accuracy-weighted sentiment derived from the ratings of independent research providers on Fidelity.com. It uses the past relative accuracy of the providers in determining the emphasis placed on any individual opinion."

Today's Q4 report was great. Trading was nearly 3 times the 3mo. average.
I would continue to buy on the dips - the next few quarterly reports may quite possibly lead to superb returns.

Looks like management got the priorities right. They want to focus on quality and operational efficiency. With time they will tighten the tolerances of the presses, jigs, machine tools, welding robots, painting, etc. Even assembly that is done by hand with tools could be optimized using automated tools and training. Less labor/car and less rework of cars with defects.

Components bought from outside suppliers can be negotiated down in price. Or use alternate suppliers. I heard about the tires from Czech Republic. Hopefully, they will be able to get tires from close by US suppliers. Anyway, I am not a fan of those performance wheels or tires. Too many pot holes here that ruin them.

I looked at the youtube video on megafactories of Tesla compared to Porsche, Lexus, etc. Model S seems much simpler to manufacture and needs less labor compared to say Porsche 911 series or even Lexus SUV. The ICE engines are very complex and heavy, plus they need complex transmission, supports, etc.

Profits in Q1 are highly likely. Very good news.

The Street and industry seem to keep using lowball production numbers. TM will start to get quantity pricing now, instead of the short-run high prices it's been paying. So volume reduces unit cost.

amazing how wall street is a bunch of chicken without head: smear one number over the front page "Tesla loss widens" and everybody runs for cover. I thought the Q4 results were much better then expected.

I was disappointed in the conference call and the shareholder letter. Maybe it was the emotional let down of not seeing price bump, but overall I felt like the questions were very lightweight. I was hoping for more big picture questions, perhaps they have been answered already. My questions would have focused on the following:

Please talk more about the supercharger network development and the relationship with SCTY, who pays for equipment, is any profit generated, can others pay to use these? How many stations planned, where are you in the process of development, when will nationwide be available?

Factory: Are you expanding into the NUMMI facility more, or are you investigating such? Will model X run on current line or are you outfitting another production line? What time frame would it take to get Gen 3 up running for more cars?

Product development: Please talk about any and all products you are working on such as pick up, coupe, X, gen3, or would you ever do a larger battery pack?

What is your business plan to dominate the earth with electrics, have you had to adapt the plan, do you still see electric cars being more popular?

Are you developing relationships with other manufacturers to outfit more of their vehicles with drivetrains and software?

Justify your current market cap?

I'll take my answers off the air. Thank you.

bad day for the stock, very bad day...

my only fault is that i buy 50 stocks at 38 $, while i could wait for a lower price..


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