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Misleading Information on Internet

John Peterson is the anti-Tesla voice on the internet. Reading his blog reveals that he is deeply involved in the development of a micro-hybrid battery technology which would reduce gasoline consumption by 5% to 15%. "The primary goal of all micro-hybrids is simply turn the engine off when it's not powering the wheels." ref: . So he is promoting vehicles that basically use gasoline as their fuel source. He definitely has an agenda and so do we. We want to get off our dependence on oil, save the planet and save us some money. His solution would keep us dependent on oil and make him a lot of money. His articles attacking Tesla look impressive. They are full of complicated technical information and fancy graphics which lead to his predetermined conclusions. He is like a climate change denier, distorting the truth, confusing and misleading people. One of his articles claims that the Tesla reservation agreement is legally flawed and puts the buyer at risk. He is an attorney and he makes a very impressive legal argument assuming Tesla goes bankrupt. He claims that Tesla is a failure and that Lithium-Ion batteries were a bust. He wants you to believe that using batteries as a fuel tank is inefficient, very expensive and has no future. I guess he is really scared of Tesla. Remember, you want to get off dependence on oil, he wants you to stay dependent on oil !!!

All of those considerations are of secondary relevance. As Elon said originally and often, the goal was to produce an irresistibly superior car. By the evidence, and by the testimony of people who have owned and do own the best the ICE market can sell in quantity, he has succeeded. That will continue to drive sales in a way that defies standard market calculations.

At the other end of the market from the "connoisseurs", we see people laying down 5-10X what they have ever paid before for a car, in some cases buying the first new car they have owned in their lives. This is a whole new market dynamic.

But TM does have a tiger by the tail. Service and feature implementation are the next big "must do-s". Finally, the transition to GenIII is the real ball game. Elon intends Fremont to be producing "millions of cars" in a few years.

While I hope Tesla can expand as quickly as possible I believe I heard Elon once say that they hope to be at BMW level production numbers within a decade...that would mean roughly 1 million cars per year by 2021.

I read that the Fremont factory produced 400,000+ cars per year at its peak so if Tesla wants to get into the millions it will either have to expand the Fremont plant or build another plant somewhere else.

I think a second plant somewhere in central Europe could be a good move. Gas costs 2-3 times as much in Europe, people are more environmentally minded, and gas guzzling performance cars are taxed VERY heavily in Europe, whereas EV's can typically be bought tax free or at a much lower tax rate.
Look at Norway...the BMW M5 costs nearly 2 million kroner, but the Tesla Model S performance (which can be imported duty free) costs only 675,000 kroner! In Germany the BMW M5 costs 10,000 euros MORE than the Model S performance...so even in BMW's homeland of Germany the Tesla is STILL the cheaper car to buy and BY FAR the cheaper car to operate.

I think European demand is going to explode once cars start being delivered over there. As a result I fully expect European reservations to start passing US reservations sometime next year.

Did Elon, or I, say "millions per year"? Arithmetic: 5 years at 400,000/yr. = 2 million.

An assembly plant in central Europe makes sense (Czech or Hungary maybe? - or maybe one is in the works for the Netherlands?) but a second plant should be in the southeast US (lower taxation and labour costs than California or Europe).

Essentially, TM got Fremont in return for $45 million or so in stock. I.e., free. There's a long way to go before it extracts full value from that megafactory. But in 7-10 yrs or so ...

If Elon wants a new factory with cheap labor he will build one in a third world country. SOME companies look for more than just cheap labor. The taxes part is usually abated when a company is looking at building in a new state. I imagine Tesla could also build a factory in Southern CA, Texas or Arizona and get work visas for immigrant workers. Maybe then those states would let them sell cars.

I guess seeking alpha is where all the shorts live...


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