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40kWh Model S reservation estimate?

Does anyone have a calculation, empirical data, rumor, or insider information that can provide a reasonable estimate for the number of 40kWh reservations currently out there?

I have a reservation and am 90% going for the 40. Right now my daily driver is the 23kWh Ford Focus Electric and I think the extra range the Model S 40 will fit my needs. Comes down to I'd rather get the car with leather, tech, and 21's than a bigger battery.

Since some 85kWh in the 12,000 range are ready to be built, then there are a lot of 40 and 60's out there. Might be in the range of 75% for both. Not much data for the 60's and no 40 have been produced yet!

Remember that red and standard suspension are also delayed. For all you know all the cars skipped over are red 85kWh orders. Nobody really knows what the mix is.

1250 Sig/Founders + 12500 US Prod + 250 Can Prod = 14000 got the invites

minus 3200 produced

= 10,800 for the 40kWh, 60kWh, multi coat red, standard suspension, cancellations, postponements

No idea how many 40 kWh in the mix though

There are more skips that don't fall in those categories. I'm P6918, Performance 85, Grey, Air Suspension, 21" silver wheels, no trade-in, no financing, but no VIN yet. So there are still "normal" 85's in that 10,800 number.

I think there are currently around 15K Model S reservations total. Just based on comments on the forums alluding to a preponderance of 85kWh configs, I would WAG it about 10% of those to be of the 40kWh version. That is purely a guess however. I was just looking to see if anyone had any more accurate estimates or a more rigorous calculation.

Yeah, I was initially thinking I would go with the 40kWh config but then idea of being able to go for a wine country trip in Model S made me go for the 85 instead. The warranty difference is pretty compelling as well as I have 70 mile roundtrip commute to work everyday. I'll be racking up miles quickly. Can't beat 8 years unlimited miles!

You never know, there might just be more than 33% for all we know.

I think that as more and more people see this beautiful car on the street, it will attract more buyers in the lower income range and the 40kWh will work fine for them. I think the car will be rated with a range of about 130 miles which is far greater than than the average daily commute of 95% of Americans who commute by car. I've been waiting 3+ years for my 40kWh and while I understand while Tesla is pushing out the higher margin cars, it is beginning to upset me to see people with P8000+ getting their cars. That's just not right.

Brian10 - I think the EPA rating will be 145-150 based on rating arc of 85 and 60 and the assumption it will weigh slightly less.

As for waiting, I agree the wait is long but I'd rather have Tesla be safely making money and be a long-term auto manufacturer due to more revenue early on from making the more expensive cars first.

Brian10;
TM is making what it can as fast as it can. Their first runs well all Signatures, which were loaded 85s. The least "fussy" transition for them was to carry on making 85s. So they did.

typo: "... runs were all Signatures ..."

ChasF. Only TM has that info. May I inquire what your reservation # is? The reason I ask is, most 85kWh reservations have been or are being filled to approx. #P10000+ (on TMC, Seegem got a delivery date in Feb for #12,127), 60 kWh reservations are being manufactured in the P6300+. TM is making great progress!

This may help give you a point of reference on your inquiry based on your reservation #. As far as bad news, I suspect TM will continue to favor 85s and 60s moving them up the queue.

Personally I think the 40kWh MS is one of the all time great, automotive bargains. Waiting (in the dark)is never fun. My advise, ‘if it doesn’t kill you it makes you stronger.’ When your delivery day arrives you will enjoy your MS that much more.

Just thinking that 85 and 60 with air and not new red, are only 33% of the cars, just check the delivery spreadsheet.

the price is also appealing to me as my daily comutte is less then 5 miles a day to and from work. however I do take the occassional raod trip to california from Az and not sure there are enough charging stations out here yet and at 600 miles i believe it would be difficult to find charging station every 100 miles or so

I was give a May/June delivery date for my 40, with air suspension.
i live in Honolulu, so there isn't enough island to need more than 140 miles.

I reserved in Sept '12' and ordered in Jan '13. My delivery estimate is May-Jun, '13. Reservation no. 12,100.

cmarkoritz;
Various cross-country drives have gone thru. Check for RV parks, in particular KOA sites. All have 14-50 outlets, which they call "50 amp" outlets, and will usually readily rent or give you access. Comfy cabins available if you need to overnight, too.

When I finalized my car via phone, I was torn btw the 40 and the 60. I asked e phone rep and they said "about 20%" get the 40. I'm not sure is he was estimating or if that is a good number, but I was curious so I asked!

thanks Brian H can I ask what model you have and how much did you pay total. How is your experience so far with driving, getting financing etc etc, if that gets too personal sorry and you dont have to answer :-)

@cmarkortiz - since there is no negotiation, if you know what configuration the car was then you know how much he paid for it.

I'm likely to be in the used GenIII market! Just call me a Tesla fan-boy who loves the technology.

oh ok I love them as well and hope to be a consumer very soon

From the shareholder letter: ".....expect deliveries of the 40kWh cars to begin later this summer". I am beside myself. After a year and a half on the reservation list, I was expecting delivery of my S sometime in April. Why did Tesla make me finalize in December and then move the delivery date. At this point, they can string me along for as long as they want, or until I cancel (losing $5K). Doesn't seem fair.

on 40K Elon just said in the Earnings Call about 10% (or less) ordered the 40K model

I would not take the 10% figure as guidance for the future. It may vary in the future, though my surprise is that they won't even sell the 40 in Europe, where distances are shorter, car prices are higher with respect to income, and gas is more expensive.

In other words, the value prop of a 40 in Europe is decidedly higher than it is in the US. If anything it would make more sense for the 40 to be an export model, while dropping it in the US.

@danielccc - my experience of the UK, Holland and Germany is that there is a lot more city-to-city driving and the commutes are often quite long. Average annual mileage in the UK is 12,000, vs 15,000 in the US so not that different. There's no way I would have been able to use a 40kWh car in the UK, and neither could most of my co-workers. Their commutes were too long.

Well more crap for the 40's. If the figure is 10%, well that is more than the Sigs!

1: Here is your seq number.
2: Order Leather and Air, so you don't have to wait.
3. Commit your 5K so that we can start the car.
4: Sigs first, OK, they deserive it.
5: So for now only 85's, that was back in June 22.
6: 60's get EPA, so now only 85 and 60.
7: 40 kWh cars will begin production in March 2013. Deliveries will begin in March/early April.
8: ".....expect deliveries of the 40kWh cars to begin later this summer".

What's Next????

Sorry, I missed a few more things (6 & 8)

Well more crap for the 40's. If the figure is 10%, well that is more than the Sigs!

1: Here is your seq number.
2: Order Leather and Air, so you don't have to wait.
3. Commit your 5K so that we can start the car.
4: Sigs first, OK, they deserive it.
5: So for now only 85's, that was back in June 22.
6: The 50,000 Mile Prepaid Maintenance program, for the car that need minimal maintenance
7: 60's get EPA, so now only 85 and 60.
8: The $2,500 price increase
9: 40 kWh cars will begin production in March 2013. Deliveries will begin in March/early April.
10: ".....expect deliveries of the 40kWh cars to begin later this summer".

What's Next????

Also, the competition in the 40kWh level is intense. TM's cars at 60 and 85 have the field to themselves.


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