Make the shorts pay for playing the game with Tesla. The price will go through the roof and they will have to pay! It will be one to remember. Truly epic.
If you have the balls, sell first thing in the morning and buy back in the afternoon.... Unfortunately, I'm too chicken....
can someone explain in baby terms how the shorts player think ? im a stock noob
They borrow the shares from a broker and sell them, with the proceeds going into their account. When they borrow them, they have to agree to repurchase them for the broker at a later date. If the stock goes down they repurchase the stock at a lower cost and keep the difference between the original proceeds and what they paid to repurchase them. If the stocks go up, they still have to buy them back but now it costs them more to buy them back than they made when they sold them originally, so they have to kick in their own money to make up the difference. There is also normally an interest payment to the broker tied to the price of the stock. So, the more the stock goes up and stays up the more the "shorts" lose on the stock and at some point will sell at a high price to cut losses, sending the stock higher.
jmb..THANK YOU, that made sense ! I'll hold my small 76 shares count then ahah
Better reason not to sell tomorrow - TSLA will keep going up. This is just the beginning. In the short run, Consumer Reports' test drive is published tomorrow, and it is expected to be very positive. This influences many people, as they are about as objective as you get in the publishing world. In the long run, Tesla will continue to succeed and prove the naysayers wrong. This is the beginning of the electric car revolution. Let's all stay in and make money for being early believers/adopters!
Sure. In the last para, meant to say that they are forced to buy high, therefore sending this stock price up.
$69 After hours...
I'm with you on the solidarity - but I've got to tell you, if it reaches $150 in the next week or so I'm going to have to sell!!
@Jamon When it gets to $150, sell half and play with "house money". ;-)
Already made a bunch from 34 to 46 and am sorry I sold. I bought in again and doubled my holdings yesterday at 55. Not making that mistake again... I'm in for the long haul now! B-)
This could be the ultimate self-licking ice cream cone:
Funding a Tesla vehicle with profits from Tesla shares.
That is what I said about Microsoft in 1989. Regretted it ever since.
in at 34ish, staying for long haul. this could be a 10 bagger over a decade!
Am holding onto mine long-term. For me It's like "voting" for Elon and his excellent CA team. Looking forward to the serious jump in price tomorrow!
Okay, I drank the cool aid a long time ago and I love my car and everything about the company. But $150/share in the next couple weeks seems unreasonably high to me. If it gets that high that fast, I believe it would have to pull back significantly sometime in 2013 (probably rather quickly). There are still so many chances to stumble on their road to success, and there are plenty out there who will jump all over any opportunity to bring them down. In the long run, I see no reason they couldn't be the number one car manufacturer on the planet with a stratospheric share price, but that's years in the future.
With that being said, what do you think is a reasonable share price right now? $150 would be something like $18B market cap. That's 1/3 the market cap of GM. Long term I expect them to surpass GM, but is it reasonable (sustainable) right now??
I too sold early. I would expect some dip in the next coming weeks. This is getting ahead of itself. Eventually this will come down a bit , the question is when. It may make sense to short if it gets to 100, but who knows. Not sure this is the same as microsoft. But imagine if there is some bad press, one car catches fire or there is a recall. Just saying that taking profit is always just that, profit. I don't want to get swept up in the hysteria right now. I will continue to sell puts to the shorties and collect my shares if the price drops
GM has margins of ~ 10%. Yes Tesla is only selling 20K cars/year but with 17% margins that will eventually land in the 25% range, then each car sold for 80K, nets $20,000.
Thus when GM sells a $25K dollar car, their profit @ 10% is $2,500.
Which means Tesla is selling the equivalent of 160,000 $25,000 cars per year on a profit basis.
Suddenly Tesla doesn't look too small.
Hey, I put down my deposit, bought the stock at 32 in July 2012, paid and had my car delivered in Feb. 2013, and today bought more stock at $55.65 anticipating/before the quarterly report. To me this is all a no brainer. I am in this and will remain in this for the long run. This company is the apple of automobiles. Love to all my Tesla buddies-victory dance baby!!
@Sam I hear ya. I love the 25% profit margin, and look forward to Tesla taking over the world someday. But GM had revenue of $150B in 2012. Tesla could sell 30,000 cars at $80k for revenue of $2.4B. Even 100% profit margins wouldn't get in the ballpark of 1/3 GM's market cap. And what happens if GM has to recall one of their models, or has to shut down a single factory for a couple months due to a natural disaster. I don't know the answer, but I guarantee it's much less damaging to the stock price than Tesla having to recall their one and only car model, or temporarily shutting down their one and only production facility.
PS - I'm not trying to be a naysayer - just trying to wrap my head around what is a reasonable market value for Tesla right now so that I can make informed decisions about buying or selling shares and/or options if the short squeeze heads into overdrive in the next couple weeks.
@Sam, @Jamon Margins from vehicle sales might be much greater than that. The 25% is just the target margin on the sale of the vehicle to the consumer. Tesla also makes money on the green credits (as much as $35K per vehicle).
I am also guessing that their licensing deals with Toyota and Mercedes Benz carry some handsome profits.
However, I too do not see $150 per share as realistic in the short term. I will be happy if they break $100 by the end of the year. Even that, will be a stretch, in my opinion.
Friends, everything is volatile now.
...and it has been for 10+ years.
The big unknown in this is the impact of the short squeeze. Looking at the fundamentals it is difficult to see it going to 150 soon, but with (depending on how you calculate it) as much as 110% of the stock shorted, we are not in normal fundamentals territory.
Would you sell Apple to buy Tesla? No consensus at work today.
@nick, I agree. And that is why we should just pause, and breathe.
Short-term play... or something longer-term?
If you believe in the long term view of the company ... consider if the stock goes rapidly and dramatically (like to $150 in few weeks), keep your shares. If you are really truly compelled, buy options like some 6 month puts or longer term leaps. This hedging will give you a little solace if price drops (sell the puts, but keep the shares).
I would urge people to stay long this company if you believe in the product and their ability to execute on their plans. There are very positive long term trends shaping up (model X, Gen III mass market car, tesla pick up truck). There are few companies that can execute as nearly flawlessly as Tesla has done in last 5 years (all things considered).
Personally, I'm all long right now and have volume averaged up as I think 5 years from now this stock will be worth significantly more that what it's worth today.
Will leave with two thoughts from the oracle of Omaha (not specific to TSLA) ...
- "Forever is a good holding period. When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever."
- "The company is more important than price"
did you read the annual report for 2012 which talks about Elon's comp, and the 10 tranches which have to be met before his options from his 2012 CEO grant of more than 5 million shares are vested completely, they have a goal of market cap at 43.2 Billion, and the last tranch being they sold 300,000 cars. even if this takes 10 years, the stock would have to go up more than 10 times from his exercise price of $31.17. this is around page 23 of the report. so, are you holding out for the long haul? would you sell google to buy Tesla?
Ahhh. What a lovely lovely day. Birds are singing, sun is shining. I don't think I'm alone here.
I am also a stock noob. Beginner's luck? I don't think so :)
Oh yes, I forgot the point of the thread once I read everyone's posts. Do not sell your shares tomorrow unless it does break that crazy unicorn number lol.
Tesla is the first stock I've ever bought and sold though starting July 2012...so don't take my word for it :)
I'm actually going to buy more on the opening most likely. Feed the fire!
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