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Martian Hyperloops & 5 Million Fireproof Tesla's Per Year; The Plan:

"Martian Hyperloops & The 20 Year Plan to 5 million Fireproof Tesla EV's A
                     Year"

Elon, I applaud your hyperloop vision as a public interest, volunteer work done by you and your world class staff.

But how about a Martian hyperloop connecting your first cities/colonies on Mars, (Elonia ?, Eden?, Numanity, New Hope Alpha, Marsia?).

Air pressure is already lighter on Mars, less heat generated, very cold at night:

http://quest.nasa.gov/aero/planetary/mars.html

Lots of room for solar panels and farms for all the electricity needs, no land owners "right of way" issues etc.

Temperature variation might be a tad of a problem, maybe just travel at night on Martian hyperloops when it's good & cold. Tube air overheating, much less of a problem. Frost might be an issue.

  "Multi-task Martian Hyperloops"

Perhaps for Mars, energy production; electrical grid transport, backup, buffering, & storage;--hyperloops could be mult-tasked for efficiency & effectiveness. EG:
 
For Martian energy production 
Solar Farms between Martian cities can provide energy for the cities/colonies & hyperloops.

"The Hyperloop Is Also The Electric   
                     Grid"

For Martian energy transportation between cities, superconducting cables can be laid  along with the hyperloop to connect Martian solar farms & cities, Mars Alpha, , New Eden, etc. 

The superconducting cables can be built in as part of the hyperloop structure, also giving the hyperloop access for its electricicity for operation needs, emergency backup, etc,

Extreme cold is an advantage when using superconducting electrical cables, less refrigeration needed.

"Batteries Built Into Hyperloop Pylons"

For Martian energy emergency backup, day/night buffering, & general long term storage from solar farms, I think making the hyperloop support pylons do double duty as huge insulated  battery storage compartments, or at least leave space to add modular battery units later. 

 "Run Tube Air Thru Pylon To Cool"

Pylons shaped into baffles and heat exchanger forms to cool hyperloop tube air which also could be designed to flow through the pylons should work great on Mars. 

Less air pressure & less gravity, means less energy needed and less heat generated. And air is arctic cold at night on Mars.

The superconducting cable refrigeration units can do double duty cooling the hot tube air further if needed when going through the pylon heat exchanger support pylons.

        "One Giant Pylon Battery"

Or what if maybe it's possible to make the pylon supports as one huge single battery ? Thus will save transportation cost & save ship cargo space from earth.

And if the pylon storage battery needs to be heated because of cold arctic nights, how about running some hot hyperloop tube air through the pylon battery may help. 

  "Martian City Electric Buffering & Storage Is Inside Hyperloop Pylons"

These hyperloop,  battery, tube support, pylons should provide sufficient energy storage inside the pylon to store and buffer any excess energy collected by tube solar panels and solar farms for the Martian cities that these hyperloops connect & to heat themselves at nite if needed.

And hot martian hyperloop Air can even be heat exchanged into martian cities, they will probably need it.

"Not Your Father's Earthen Hyperloop"

And the Martian Hyperloop may not need to be elevated much, if at all. Perhaps only 4-5 feet, whatever is easiest for construction & maintenance access.

And the pylons that support the hyperloop tube can be any shape needed to fulfill its functions for heat exchange to cool tube air, or size to also store solar panel/farm generated electricity inside the pylons storage battery.

Different hyperloop support pylons could even be different shapes/structures, depending on the different function/s needed at that particular hyperloop spot.

In fact I like this version of the Martian hyperloop so much, I think some of these features makes sense for the Earth Version Hyperloop as well.

   "Multi-tasked Earthen Hyperloops"

Earthen hyperloops can solve several problems at once to make them highly desirable. 

Besides transporting people/cars/freight
, hyperloops can also transport and buffer electricity between earthen solar farms and cities with less loss of electricity by using superconducting electric cables. That's just like the martian hyperloops.

"Multi-task Superconducting Cable    
               Refrigeration"

And these superconducting cables require some refrigeration units to maintain cold cable temps. These refrigeration units can be multi-tasked to also cool hyperloop air through baffle designed pylons that support the hyperloop. Everything can be powered by solar panels on the HL backed up by superconducting cable electricity.

So for solar farms between two cities just the right distance apart for a hyperloop, include in the design:
 Super Conducting Electric Cables
 Pylons That Also Store Electricity
 Electric Buffering System
 Shape Pylons Like Baffles
 Run Hot HL TubeAir Thru PylonBaffles

At night, the hot hyperloop tube air can help heat the cold pylon batteries. During the day, the superconducting cable refrigeration units can also help cool hyperloop air running through the baffle shaped HL support pylons.

    "5 Million Tesla EV's Per Year"

Now for Tesla's 5 million EV's per year development by 2033, while also developing various support hyperloop  prototypes at Tesla's various EV manufacturing sites.  Now Tesla's EV car production development  could also follow a hyperloop fast road to development.

It's possible, in 20 years,  Tesla can rival BMW by making 5 Million Cars Per Year; have  Elon's succession fully ready, setup & implemented; & help create100% renewable and/or carbon free cities and industrial parks.
    
5 Million EVs AYear In Just 2 More
              Plant Sites"

All that can be accomplished with just 2 more manufacturing sites making two new EV platforms, complete with hyperloop demo's for people, cars & freight at Brownsville, Tx (Gen IV XLarge platform) and Teslahua, China (Gen V small/compact platform); while using the bud to blossom manufacturing strategy at each site.

"Bud 2 Blossom ExpansionTechnique"

Work can start immediately on both sites using the bud to blossom planning & building technique. Somewhat similar to what Tesla is doing at Fremont, only about  5 times larger at each of the two new sites.

First acquire land in Brownsville Tx, enough for a nuclear power plant that runs on nuclear waste; a Solar City Sun Farm, and an industrial park complex  capable of housing suppliers, a possible mega battery production plant, and 5 Fremont size Tesla manufacturing plants.

"But Start Small With A Bud For Each
      Part Inside Lots Of Land & 
                 Infrastructure."

The goal would be eventually to blossom and  make 2 & 1/2 million Tesla's a year; but growing out from small buds in the number of buildings, with gradual, blossoming increases. The same blossom growing technique for the suppliers and battery plant

"Carbon Free Manufacturing Electricity"

Ironically Tx has high electric rates due to oil &gas drilling electric needs. So the industrial complex would need a solar farm (SCTY). And set aside land to have a new design nuke built later that burns old radioactive waste fuel. 

   "Synergize The Nuke Plant"

A pilot nuclear plant funded by Bill Gates, Google, GE,  etc. Think of it as a nuclear waste incinerating plant that also generates lots of electricity to pay for itself. Or to put it a better way free nuclear waste disposal while generating carbon free electricity. 

The nuclear plant also buffers the solar farm, making sure carbon free electricity is available 24/7 to the Tesla industrial complex, greatly lowering its carbon footprint. 

Leave land space for the plant, budget 20 years to fully complete the nuke plant and the nuke has its own independent time frame for completion.

In the beginning, the solar farm would handle more of the electricity needs.

"Also Demo Superconducting Cables"

Superconducting electrical cables move electric power thought the complex and out to nearby markets from the nuclear power plant & solar plant, all designed into the industrial complex, with excess electricity transported to distant markets much more efficiently.

 "Texas Goodwill & Political Benefits"

With all this Tesla presence in Texas, your hope for direct sales may gain traction and supporters in Texas which is a huge market for pickups.

 "Gen IV Platform With Double Battery
   For Extra Big & Heavy Load Hauls"

The most important EV feature of the Brownsville Tx plant could be the next 4th generation extra large (pickup/van etc) platform solution, which could be a double battery allowing for longer distance heavy hauling of uhauls, boats, flatbeds etc.

         "A Double Battery System" 

A Gen IV battery xlarge platform could have a "Primary" & "Secondary" double battery system for larger vehicles & heavy duty hauling applications. The two batteries sandwiched on top of each other inside a casing design.

While both batteries are swappable on the 4th generation xlarge vehicle platform, you can drive without the secondary battery, which leaves an open slot under the primary battery. The secondary battery is optional at all times.

Both the primary & secondary batteries are bigger with more range than the current 85 kwh battery.  Say each battery system does 300 + miles, giving you 600 + miles range with both the 3 segment primary battery and 1 segment secondary, forward push batteries in.

    "The Secondary Battery Is For.."

The second battery sits under the primary battery and is for when your Tesla Pickup/Van EV needs range AND/OR you need to haul a heavy load, say 2-4 tons, to pull a boat, flatbed etc. With two batteries, 300 miles with a heavy load is still possible.

    "The 30 Second Sideswap Primary  
                    Battery"

Now swapping speed. 

Again, 90 seconds is you father's swapping speed, 30 seconds is the new standard. 

A Tesla cross licensing agreement with KNDI should do the job and allow Tesla to use side swapping of the primary battery in 30 seconds, which is KNDI technology.

In exchange for KNDI sideswapping use, Tesla could agree to let Geely Automotive & KNDI to build, (and pay for), supercharger stations for both their use & Tesla's in China, as long as they purchase Tesla drive chains & batteries.

Here's a video showing the KNDI system for swapping the "primary battery" it only takes about 30 seconds:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvixlb8l6Co&feature=youtube_gdata_player

 "Used Primary Battery Leasing Lowers 
          Price & Saves Batteries"

This makes possible leasing used batteries with a new Gen IV large vehicle purchase saving critical batteries which may be in short supply with mass Tesla EV production and home battery grid buffer packs & Solar City solar roof storage battery packs also coming online.

Used battery leasing also cuts the up front purchase amount 20-40 %. 

  "15 Second Forward Push Optional 
             Secondary Battery"

For  the secondary battery underneath the primary battery, Tesla needs to design a new swap system that is faster than the KNDI system, say swappable in 15 seconds without even having to come to a complete stop.

"Here's The 15 Sec, Nonstop Solution"

A forward push swap, instead of side to side like the KNDI system. 

The battery to be swapped is held in position on steel rails. 

Forward drive power is supplied by your EV primary battery as you auto-drive forward slowly over the rails.

The incoming charged battery pushes out the used battery, and inserts itself into the empty space. 

Computer guidance and steering lowers/raises the rail to proper height and guides the tires and controls the forward speed. 

On/off electric magnets on the EV temporararily turn on to guide the battery to lockin position until hydraulic clamps lock the the battery into place. 

The old, uncharged battery, (if present), is pushed out by the incoming battery & drops onto a conveyor belt and taken to recharge & storage automatically.

 "Now You Can Heavy Haul With The
            Gen IV Xlarge Platform "

This two battery system solves the problem of cargo weight lowering EV large vehicle & heavy haul range for pickups etc. on this Gen IV xlarge platform. 

Got an occasional heavy load? No problem, just rent a large secondary, forward push battery and double your EVs store battery power.

And swap time is 15 seconds for the secondary battery. At least twice as fast as the KNDI sideswap primary battery system which takes 30 seconds & sits higher up in the EV.

"EZ Pass Meet EV EZ Swap For The
  Forward Push Secondary Battery"

Long rows  (5 across) of these swap stations can be set up to drive through, like toll booths on an interstate. All billing is done wirelessly through the car's computer.

Vehicles that can use this double battery, extra large vehicle platform include pickups, commercial cargo vans, mini RV vans tall enough to stand up inside, mini bus, other? 

"How To Make The Tesla EV FireProof
          From The Battery"

With a two battery system where all batteries are swappable, it's now only one small step to fireproof the EV from batteries: 
   Make the batteries auto-ejectable in
   the event one of them catches fire.
   Only the battery on fire need be
   electro-magnetically/hydraulically 
   ejected from the car, (after stopping),
   protecting the car and other batteries
   from fire. Try doing that with a
   gasoline tank ice car !

Remember a fully loaded two battery system EV has 4 battery segments, a three segment primary battery, and a one segment forward push battery. So there should be power left to slowly drive out of fire range of the ejected hot battery.
   
  "More Cross Licensing Technology"

The forward push through battery also gives Tesla more cross licensing agreement leverage & opportunity with the Chinese to make a deal to manufacture the next Gen V small/compact platform for smaller compact EVs while letting the Chinese pay for it all in exchange for forward push swapping use. 

   "Double Battery Gen V Platform
    For Compact/Subcompact EVs"

I think China is the only place Tesla can build a viable, mass market,  5th generation compact/subcompact EV; an EV compact car competitive with world, ice car prices in the compact and subcompact categories; with the Chinese using a downsized version of the two battery system. 

In this case the secondary battery is mostly used for infrequent trips over 500 miles and is also not part of the initial purchase.

A manufacturing agreement to produce these small EV cars with Geely and KNDI would accomplish mass market pricing. 

And it would allow a Tesla to sell compact cars in China without import fees! Each company can use their own battery choices.

   "The $15,000 Tesla Compact EV    
  Exported From Tesla's China Plant"

I believe the manufacturing cost Tesla could achieve with manufacturing in China is $5,000-$10,000 per compact/subcompact EV car on the GenV small/compact car platform.

That's with a double battery system; but, only comes with one battery. 

Tesla could sell this "best in class" small compact EV car worldwide for $15,000 + for excellent margins.

And this compact GenV EV with a double battery system will have great milage optionality, as good or better than an ICE car. And the battery swap would be many times faster than a gas fillup.

In most cases it takes no time to charge an EV, if you do it at home at night.

  "How to Extend Global Battery Supply
                & Lower Prices"

1) Primary Batteries Can Be Also Be   
            Used Lease Batteries:

Selling the new compact with a used lease battery, gets the up front retail purchase price down to $10,000 per car, with a used battery lease agreement, plus it saves batteries.

You just make cheaper than gas payments to Tesla for the used battery lease, saving even more money.

These used/lease batteris swap out using the KNDI side swap system. 

The secondary battery for long trips inserts & swaps out using my proposed Tesla forward drive swap system.

(It will take a few years for used batteries to become available, not unlike how the used smartphone market developed). 

2) A Tri-Segmented Primary Battery:

The primary Gen V side swappable battery could be segmented into three sections, each with 200 miles of range. You can buy 1, 2, or all 3 segments, (new or used, lease and/or purchase), depending on your milage needs. 

You can always buy/lease more side swap battery segments. Empty unused segments could be filled with weighted slugs/dummies to maintain weight balance.

Now you can get a Tesla compact EV with just the right amount of primary battery you need. 

(I'm figuring 100 miles for each swappable primary battery segment & 300 miles for the one forward push battery).

If you just want a short milage city car, just get one segment of the primary battery. You can always get 2 more primary segments for the occasional longer weekend trip, etc.

For the extra long trip, you can add a solo secondary Forward Push Through Battery for  300 more miles of range; or, for heavy use, like towing a boat, Uhaul trailer, flatbed, etc. 

Now the 2 battery system has 6 possible milage configurations, depending on which combinations of batteries you choose between primary & secondary batteries for your compact Tesla EV. 

These combinations give you 100 mi, 200 mi, 300 mi, 400, 500 mi, 600 mile options. No battery waste, just the milage you need.

(For used lease batteries figure 10% to 20% less milage).

Both the "primary three segment battery" & "secondary forward push through battery" are superchargeable. Giving a half charge of 300 miles in 5-10 minutes with all possible batteries in the car.

3) Reuse Even Used Tesla Batteries:  

To Reduce recycling costs & save on new battery needs, design Tesla batteries to be stackable etc and to be usable for home use after EV use.

These home uses include emergency home electric backup; home solar roof electricity storage (1-3 months); & nite to day grid electricity buffering battery stacks to help electric companies reduce peak demand. The price differential earns money for the homeowner.

Etc.

"A Whole City Dedicated to making 5 million Tesla's A Year with the Chinese"

China has no problem building whole cities, all at once. So why not build an unique, special, green, carbon free, EV manufacturing city for Tesla & the Chinese to build compact cars at mass market prices? 

Tesla could make higher end compact EV's while China would concentrate on the lower end. Both selling under their own names & their own makes and models; but sharing parts of the manufacturing process & cross licensing some technologies.

"A Whole New Kind Of Demo City In
                    China"

It would be somewhat like the industrial park in in Texas, only a whole city built from the ground up to efficiently manufacture and show off the superior benefits of EV's; the benefits of hyperloops; the benefits of nuke waste burning nuclear plants; the benefits of of superconducting electric transport cables; & the benefits of designing smog/carbon free electric production, buffering & charging throughout the city. A whole new kind of city. 

"A City That Stars Out As A Bouquet Of    
                     Buds"

Start in China with lots lots of land for a whole city, a huge industrial park, a solar farm, nuclear plant, recycling plants for steel/aluminum and all relatively close to train transport & seaports, for transportation of the Tesla China partnership EV's to domestic & worldwide markets.

Leave space for various hyperloop demo ideas & aplications, with everything connectable to superconducting electrical cables.

Leave room for city size housing and retail, all designed for EV & renewable efficiency. 

This includes supercharger & charging stations throughout the city, enough for all the city's EV cars. 

Since it's China, outlaw gas cars. Even the city's paid parking meters could double as paid electric car charging stations, as well as paid parking. 

All homes have solar panels & charging stations. All apartments have EV charging parking spaces.

All building roofs, apartments, & homes have solar roofs. All have storage batteries to store 1-3 months electricity to buffer the electric grid daily, weekly & seasonally. 

And everything connected with superconducting cables. 

Engineers working at the EV factories, should enjoy living in such a smog free, electric city. The contrast with between this electric, carbon free city and China's other smog air polluted cities would be startling.

All the decarbonating renewables & efficiencies would be designed right into the city from the start. Just like modern cities are designed for cars and not chariots, wagons, or horses. 
Again  since China likes to build whole cities at once, it's one of the few places where an all electric, carbon & smog free whole city can be built from the ground up to make EVs with their usage & needs designed right into the city.

And the city would have many different sections (buds) ; each developing (blossoming) at their own pace, not unlike a blossoming bouquet of flower buds.

      "A City Named After Tesla"

And to give this city a name, I would like Teslahua (Tez-lah-wah) City, which I believe would translate as "Tesla Blossom" City. The cars could be called Teshua's (Tez-wahs) or "Tes Blossoms".

   "Tesla Chinese EV Site Demo Of Passenger/Car/Freight Hyperloops"

Starting with demo "freight hyperloops", eventually hyperloops would carry millions of cars from manufacturing plants to rail yards and ocean ports in China.

I would think these compact Tesla's/Teshua's made in China plants would be produced using over 90% robots, and most of the Chinese workers would be engineers  maintaining and running the robots and they would enjoy living in Teslahua City.

I don't  think anyone would blame you Elon for using China to get the price of a world class Tesla compact car down to the same price point as ice compacts, $10,000 to $15,000 dollars while still maintaining margins.

    "Higher Profit EVs Made in USA"

The higher profit, Gen IV extra large & heavy duty Tesla vehicles with double batteries could be made in the U.S. at the second Brownsville, Tx Tesla factory. 

Starting out small with a lot of land & capable of being expanded to 2 1/2 million vehicles/yr with demo vehicle hyperloops transporting some of the trucks/vans/etc to ports or rail lines. 

       "Texas Hyperloops"

For a variety of reasons, I favor a location between San Antonio , Tx and Brownsville Tx. A demo "people hyperloop" to San Antonio from the Brownsville Tx Tesla auto plant would allow Tesla workers the option to live in San Antonio & work in Brownsville.  

The Tesla factory demo hyperloop would also allow San Antonians to visit the Tesla auto factory , the proposed Space X launch site, and local attractions like South Padre Island beach. And create lots of goodwill and support for Tesla in Texas.

"Auto-Pilot Cars & The Best Coder On  
                 The Planet"

Arguably Elon your one of the best coders on the planet, with Zip2, Paypal, and more recently you 3-D, virtual reality, CADCAM software among your credits. 

And the way I see it, auto pilot is mainly a software coding problem. 

So it wouldn't surprise me to see auto pilot EV's at your factories driving themselves through while being assembled, then testing themselves on a driving track, then driving themselves onto transport hyperloops/trains. 

And, if allowed in China, new Tesla's compact EV's drive themselves directly to the customer, using automated superchargers.

Autopilot, Tesla EV's would help differentiate Tesla cars.

There would also be significant autopilot applications for commercial & military EV's.

       "Time Management Strategy"

Now the strategy is clear, In just three locations, (Freemont, Ca; Brownsville, Tx; & Teslahua, China), Elon, you could manage 90% of your spaceship, solar and EV car manufacturing actives up to 5 million EV's a year. 

Car plants #2 & #3 can both be started at the same time, both progressing and expanding at  their own rate using the Bud 2 Blossom Expansion Technique (BET).

   "How to Finance 2 More Sites"

The Brownsville, Tx can be financed by a secondary stock offering at $300/share which should raise 3 billion dollars +. 

Expansion projects like this, I believe, is why investors give the TSLA stock a high multiple & price, so secondary offering financing is always available as opportunities come up.

The Teslahua City, China joint EV car plant can be financed by the Chinese. 

    "Elon, Multiplicity & Succession"

Elon I respect your desire to cut back your work schedule. And like Michael Keaton in the movie "Multiplicity", we need some copies of you !

Problem is you do so many things well including Biz Accounting; Creating Buzz In TV & Social Media; Disruptive, Re-inventive Engineering; Problem & Crises Problem Solving; Short, Medium & Long Term Strategic Planning; Personnel Hiring & Development, etc. 

Seems the company needs at least 5-6 copies of you!

    "Five Junior Co-CEO's for Elon"

Five Junior Co-CEO's with a primary focuse in a certain area of strength , a rotating secondary mission to acquire general knowledge & development, & last, but not least, a tertiary responsibility for general all around management of the entire company and future direction.

These three areas to include short, medium & long term management & planning.

 "Elon CEO Optionality & Flexibility"

Elon, developing Jr Co-CEO will give you lots of optionality at the end of your current Tesla contract, including:
  1) Re-up as CEO with reduced hours.
  2) Stay on as Chairman of the Board
  3) Stay on as a Director on the board
  4) Only do special projects, Hyperloop    
       etc.

All to save you time, allow more time for for your interests, while the long term goal of 5 million cars produced per year by 2033 remains feasible. 

    "Tesla Transportation & Energy"

Eventually I see Tesla transforming into Tesla Transportation & Energy including Hyperloops, EV cars, Grid Buffering systems, Emergency Power Backup Systems,  Wholesale & Retail Solar Systems, Car Batteries & Power Trains with Supercharger Management Systems for other companies, Battery Swap Systems for other companies, as well as new ventures like Electric Airplanes.

   Time For A Little Recapitulation
Bullet Points Of The Long Range Plan

       A) Efficient Expansion Plan
1) Cluster activities in 3 major places
2) Use blossom expansion technique
3) Have 5-6 Junior CEO's

   B) Multi-task Purposing The Battery
1) Make 15 sec swap, double battery
2) Cross license tech with Chinese
3) Sell supercharger batteries to others
4) Fireproof EV w/ auto eject batteries

  C) Save Batteries Sell Them Used
1) 1- 3 segment sideswap battery
2) Optional forward push battery

  D) Reduce Total Owner EV Costs
1) Sell new EV with used battery
2) Lease used Batteries
3) Manufacture in China
4) Mega EV & battery Plants

  E) Multi-task Purposing of Hyperloop
1) HLs transport solar farm electricity
2)HLs demo superconducting cable
3) HLs store buffer elect' in their pylons
4) Demo hyperloops at Tsla EV plants
5) Design HLs for mars

  F) Multi-Purpose Plant #2 & #3
1) Superconducting cable at plants
2) Solar farms at Tsla EV plants.
3) Nuke waste powered EV plants
4) carbon neutral EV plants

G) Make 5 million Tesla EVs/yr by 2033

  H) Differentiate Yourself
1) With autopilot
2) Fireproof batteries by autoeject
3) Best in class metrics 50%+ above  
      the competition etc.

  I)  Finance Areas Of Need
1) Use the high stock price to do stock
   offerings for manufacturing plants etc
2) Partner with Chinese/cross license
    batter/supercharger tech etc
 
        J) Create Moats
1) Free, Fast, Supercharging
2) EV buffers, solar storage and
    emergency backups for the
    household 
3) Control worldwide battery supply &
    capture new battery breakthroughs

K) Design Batteries For Secondary
     AfterMarkets For Used Batteries
     thru Solar City
1) Segmented Subcompact EV
    batteries sell thru SCTY as
    household emergency backup elec'
2) Stack & configure used EV batteries
    for home/grid buffering & to buy/sell
    cheaper nite electricity (buffering).
3) For Solar Roofs, sell stacked used
    batteries to store 3 month supply
    solar panel electricity & go off grid

               "It's Doable"

I believe all this is completely doable with the right long term strategy and CEO/jrCEO's and personnel.

"Why Tesla Gets A High Stock Price"

I also believe Tesla's visionary abilities justifies their high stock price reserved for disruptors who dare to go where no company has gone before and who can produce products no one else can e.g.
  Amazon-Home shopping& groceries
  Google-Loon, Glass, Autodrive etc.

And I believe the reason Tesla stock keeps a high price and high multiple is because investors want to give Tesla the finances to go out and accomplish their unique vision because...

"There Are Super-Moats Around Tesla"

           Here's just a couple: 

             "Super-Moat #1"

Tesla eventually controlling/owning  all worldwide battery supply & production could actually be a positive moat opportunity for  Tesla. Imagine if GM owned or controlled the world oil supply , what a moat that would be !

Better new breakthrough battery chemistries can be much more easily & completely captured by Tesla than competitors if Tesla controls or own all worldwide battery production. 

Tesla would just have to retool existing battery plants, while competitors would have to build whole new ones, this is an exponentially wide super-moat. 

           "Super-Moat # 2"

Another super-moat, owning the supercharging patents & worldwide supercharging & swapping infrastructure that can be used for making deals and agreements with other carmakers. 

Tesla owning the infrastructure & patents on supercharging is like Ford motors owning the patent on making gasoline from oil plus that infrastructure, forcing competitors to pay a royalty on it if they are allowed to even use it. 

Imagine where Ford would be if they had such patents in the early 1900's to go along with their assembly line invention. Another exponentially wide moat for Tesla.

 "A Third super-moat around Tesla
           Free Total Cost EV's"

Zero total cost EV's. Yes that's right Tesla compact EV cars that cost nothing to own. 

Through a unique partnership with Solar City, through cost savings mentioned herein, and through a unique partnership with the Chinese to lower manufacturing cost. It will happen for some Tesla buyers, here's an exa:

With the help of Chinese manufacturing, the retail price of a double battery, compact size, Gen V platform BEV comes down to $15,000 with a full new 3 segment primary battery, and no forward push secondary battery. 

Range with this new primary three segment battery is 300 miles.

Now instead of a new battery, lease a used battery for less than previous gas payments. And the purchase price of a new compact EV is now $10,000. & the range is 250 miles. 

You have positive cash flow over previous gas payments back to you, saving 10%-20% , (more if you live Europe). All three primary batteries can be side swapped whenever needed.

Next nstall a free Solar City solar roof system on your house and receive household electricity 10% -20% cheaper by leasing the solar panels from Solar City. Your solar lease payments will be lower than your current household electric bill. 

These lower lease payments create more bankable cash money in your pocket from lower house electricity costs.

And electricity to fuel your EV is another 10%  - 20% cheaper if getting the electricity from your rooftop leased solar panels, creating more positive cash flow on the used battery lease payments over previous gas payments. 

Finally Install Solar City / Tesla batteries in your home to store and buffer months of the home solar roof generated electricity & store. 

Now you can go off grid with your solar roof and sell electricity at peak times from your in-house, Tesla buffer batteries. 

Also with your Tesla Home Storage & Grid Buffering batteries, you can draw cheap electricity at nite from the electric company and sell it back to the electric co. at peak daytime rates returning more cash back to you.

As you go through life using up Tesla batteries, just add these batteries to your this home buffering system for a secondary life making you even more & more money buffering cheap nite time electricity during peak daytime demand as your used battery pile grows bigger & bigger.

(This also helps save battery production & cuts down on recycling costs).

And one more thing, let's say you live in Europe & have high electric rates and petrol rates. You live 25 miles from work and can charge at work, or at numerous public charge stations along the way.

Remember the Gen V platform comes with a 3 section primary battery. But, if you just need a short distance city EV, you may only want to lease 1 segment or 1/3 of the primary battery. 

This will lower your battery lease cost by over half, giving you even more of your gas savings back.

Thus, with a European buyer who has both high electric rates & high petrol prices I estimate savings of $3,000 a year purchasing a $15,000 compact Tesla EV with a Solar City solar roof system.

This is based on monthly  total savings of $250 dollars of home electricity & and car gas payments AFTER lease payments for the solar roof & used EV battery.

That makes the payback period on your EV about 5 yrs, when your Tesla EV becomes essentially free.

 "Can GM Or Any Car Co. Do This ?"

Only Tesla can potentially make a 500-1000 mile, 0-5min refueling home or long distance traveling , free solar fuel, in an all EV car that pays for itself, making the Tesla EV essentially free over a 5 year period.

       "Why A High Stock Multiple"

Investors agree only Tesla can achieve everything herein. And that's why investors give Tesla a high stock multiple & price:
     
    To finance this highly desired
    potential with secondary offerings etc
    

"Make 5 Million Tesla EV's/yr in 20
                  Years "

And I think Elon you and your team are truly the only ones who can do it .

And someday we fully expect to see you riding a martian hyperloop as well.
  

This time for real: TL;DR.

Tesluthian, the world needs you! Good stuff.

Ok taking a poll

1) How many votes for a Tesla goal of producing 5 million EVs a year ?

2) From 0-100%, what chance of success do you give it ?

3) If achieved, what stock price do you think that would create ?

@Timo,

I didn't forget Europe, I read statements of Elon's that he now is contemplating a plant in Europe, Asia, and another one in America, that's 4 all together plus the Tilberg Assembly plant. Assuming 500,000 EVs a year at each of the four EV plants & it sounds like to me Elon is already contemplating going for 2 million EVs a year. So 5 million is not as much of a stretch as it may seem.

I imagine the European plant would possibly produce a station wagon which you said is popular there; but what other makes of cars are unique to the European taste and would make sense to produce in Europe for local markets ?

Darko,

Thanks. Many people can dream. Actually I think it can be a valuable skill. But very few can make dreams come true. Elon is definitely one of the few. I enjoy reading about him & have faith in his abilities. I mean even his cars burn brilliantly !

"Earthen" -- sorry, the word is taken, means made of dirt. ;) Try Terran.

Double thickness batteries are a major issue. The flat floor of the S is already about 4" higher for rear passengers than normal; another 4" would require raising the profile of the entire vehicle. Double the energy density in existing battery form factor is far more likely and do-able.

The rest of the plan is subject to so many contingencies and opportunity surprises etc. that it is pretty much fantasy. As an e.g., Tesla was all set to build a first plant in New Mexico when the
Governator offered a sweeter deal in CA. (NM actually sued over the last minute pull-out.)

As for solar on Mars, I suppose it's possible, but sunlight is about 40% as strong there. BIG solar panels.

BrianH

"...try terran" (for earthen)

Roget's Thesaurus:

http://www.answers.com/topic/earthen#page4

Earthen...
...relating to or characteristic of the earth or of human life on earth.

Don't know what you think of Roget's wordsmithing; but , he seems to allow my sense of "earthen" . And if I had to change it, I could go for "earthbound" only because it has a more galactic feel & is purely subjective on my part. Not that I have anything against terran.

But I could use your expertise on another matter. Seems like one of my longer posts on ideas for Gen III cars got deleted. I was going to link to it on a creative point on a post; but it's nowhere to be found. Where did it go ? How do I get it reposted ? You seem to be an expert on this blog & threads. Thnx :)

BrianH

Good point on need to double solar panels to compensate for lower martian sunlight. But the atmosphere on mars is thinner and way less clouds so maybe more sunlight gets through, less cloudy days.

BrianH

"...is pretty much fantasy"

Yes I agree this is part "fantasy football" style so to speak but much more fun!

My basic premise is it's possible to achieve the 5 million production numbers.

I agree serendipity & synchronicity will create different opportunistic, unforeseen pathways; but I am just submitting something plausible to demonstrate its perfectly possible. Kinda like a football team having a perfect season.

Not saying it's a done deal. Not saying its going to happen exactly like this. Just saying its perfectly possible & can happen. Like a perfect season in football.

And with serendipity like your example of not using the New Mexico plant but the Fremont plant, resulted in higher & faster production numbers, not less. (Along with many other positive sychronicities along the way).

And it wasn't that long ago people were telling me that you couldn't get 500,000 EV's a year out of the Fremont plant and even if you could, it would cost too much. Now it's a firmly established goal, has the financing & looks like a done deal.

And if anyone can turn a black swan event into a white swan, or even golden swan, it's Elon Musk, he seems to have done it many times already.

BrianH

"...another 4" would require raising the profile of the entire vehicle." (in reference to putting in double batteries).

Good point Brian, best to start with high clearance vehicles, generally they would be in the extra large battery Gen IV platform I originally mentioned.

Vehicles on that platform like big hulking pickup trucks, mini buses, mini RVs, work vans etc all with extra big vertical clearance.

A fold down flap for a step may be necessary; but you could also use that to allow the side swapping of the primary battery.

For regular and smaller size vehicles, different implemention designs may need to be found to incorporate a primary & secondary battery.

BrianH

Surprised you haven't mentioned another needed design improvement in the Gen V subcompact battery platform I suggested. Because the tires are in the way, on a small compact car, that would drastically cut down on the amount of the length of the primary battery that could be side swapped out, perhaps as much as 30% !

What do you think needs to be done to solve that ?

Tesluthian;
Not nice. You lied about "earthen". What you quoted was the definition of "earthly". Bad Tesluthian.

As I said, the Mod E battery and that of any subsequent compacts will be a different "form factor" (shape and size). Not swappable with the MS version.
If you observed the demo, the battery is not removed from the side; your stacking idea seems impractical for many reasons. Heat management, e.g.

You know that rather than build a hyperloop on Mars, which has an awful lot of pipeline to lay and connects 2 points..... they could use the electric drive train and battery technologies from Tesla and add the Hyperloop pressurised body, and with almost no wind resistance you've got a very fast Martian car :)

http://m.dictionary.com/definition/earthen?linkid=khyton&srcpage=synonym

BrianH

Maybe write some of these definition web sites and inform them of their errors. Here is another link stating a secondary meaning of earthen as "worldly" which would also fit my usage.

What can I say,I'm just an innocent victim of deceptive web sites, dictionaries & thesauruses . :)

Tesluthian;
That's a far stretch. Worldly is a synonym only in its "non-spiritual" definition.

http://i.word.com/idictionary/Earthen

BrianH

OMG, this dictionary list "earthly" as one of earthen's definitions and that you suggested for the article ! Must be a conspiracy! Put them on your list for correction emails!

BrianH,

"(Problems)...stacking (batteries) ...because....heat (heating up issue).

Tesla already made a battery 3-4 times thicker than the current platform. The Tesla Roadster battery was over 1 foot thick. You just need a genius to design it, and I think they have plenty of those over at Tesla.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c29Ps4e-sXY&feature=youtube_gdata_player

BrianH,

"If you observed the demo, the battery is not removed from the side."

I'm almost afraid to ask your definition of "side", lol. But see if the above link is more clear. Looks like the batteries come out from under the car, sliding out sideways from under the side car doors area.

The battery drops straight down, then is moved away, well below the level of the wheels.

PS;
Earthly is not a synonym for earthen. Earthy, maybe.

www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2013/10/08/what-needs-to-happen-before-elon-m...

BrianH,

Some red meat for ya. This guy does do a nice perspective of worldwide car leaders. But he says, like you, it's impossible, no way Tesla could ever get up to 5 million EV's a year production.

Any less than full truths in his comments, in your opinion ?

In another matter , I think it's time for you to reveal your dictionary website of choice. Bet you have a hundred windows open on your desktop at any given time.

grega,

Good point about the logistics needs of the hyperloop. That may come much later in the martian develope (22nd century), or maybe something entirely new. Until then the speed wise things may move at hypo-loop speed initially. And transportation may be a totally different design and form factor, like your electric rail idea.

SpaceX may use a nuke powered land rover, maybe good for 20 years, just to get around a little bit. Ditto nuclear powered bulldozer. Looks like there's lots of rocks on mars, so speeds wouldn't be that great. Maybe a nuclear powered helicopter would work, or not because the air is much thinner. Such a helicopter may require a radically different design to get air lift.

As for logistics, remember the grasshopper heavy rocket can be huge (bigger than entire Saturn V), and land upright for mars supplies. Grasshopper rockets maybe tethered together like a train heading out to mars. Then the grasshoppers uncouple and land upright on mars. Instead of being filled with fuel, these rockets will full of supplies.

The grasshoppers could have a couple of functions. After unloading, some grasshopper rockets could be designed to be Martian housing after mechanically lowering themselves onto their sides. Other grasshopper rockets could be designed to take Martian stuff back to earth.

My post was a bit simpler :)

The electric battery and engine design of the Tesla Model X or whatever, with the presurised Hyperloop passenger compartment, would make for the beginnings of an interesting martian car. Of course the end result would be stageringly different :)

One of the early problems they'll have on Mars is the need to use anything they can get on Mars easily. Creating dirt roads instead of rails or pipes will be more achievable, they'll want to explore in many directions. And move materials between locations using automated vehicles of some form too.

I'm not at all knowledgeable on what they think they can mine and process easily on mars. They'll need to work out what materials are most easily usable by 3D printers.

Tesluthian;
Say what? Cite or quote where I said 5M cars per year for TM was impossible. Your imagination is overpowering your judgment, again.

BrianH,

Guess I was wrong.

So actually we are in agreement, it is possible for "MK" to do 5 million cars a year. So happy we agree. :)

MK?

Timo,

In another thread , someone mentioned Elon made a token cameo appearance in the movie: "Machette Kills", so I mentioned that as a nickname for Elon for what he metaphorically does to EV the competition. So MK is just an abbreviation of that.

Now what's TL;DR ?

Timo

For refererence, here's a movie trailer of "Machete Kills". Just to give you an idea, Missing Elon's cameo though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_e8EDYin-BY&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Correction: Only one t in Machete.

I have flagged all Machete Kills spams, maybe it was in some bot trying to get a click. For that reason I flag your post with link too.

TL;DR means Too Long; Didn't Read.

Timo

VS;WU


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