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Don't be seduced...

Indeed, the Model S is enticing. It has the looks of a Ferrari 599 and is potentially a significant benefit to our environmental. Elon Musk appears to have things on track to actually mass produce this car and timely deliver it to those of us who have our reservations in place. But... Will the actual price be the same as currently advertised? Will the upgrade to a 300-mile capacity LIB really cost an extra $20k? Will this car be reliable and safe? And, what about the availabiity of convenient charging stations? I'm as excited about this car as the next person, but I intend to hold Mr. Musk's and Tesla's feet to the fire. They've made some bold promises. Now, let's all make sure they keep them.
Thank you.

Too late as you've already posted an article on the enthusiasts forum...I'm pretty sure you've been seduced. If only the ICE car makers knew about your disobedience and disloyalty! HA!

And too late for the rest of us as I'm replying and others will either ,most likely, think "meh" and move on to more lively discussions about the car of their dreams or reply in kind.

meh

I am not holding anybodys feet to the fire. Just applaud him for trying win, lose, or draw. In the meantime hope he makes a ton of profit for putting it "all on the line".

ocatty,

you seem to totally miss the idea that success of Tesla depends widely on customers' acceptance. Ever thought that 4000 reservations years before production might bolster the engineers ego at Tesla? Or that the reservation fee at least helps to cover some development costs?

Go reserve a model S if you want this car to be a success. If any of the above "buts" occurs, have your reservation fee refunded and walk away. think of it as an interest-free loan from you to TESLA.

Tesla has already shown they can build an EV with the Roadster. The S sedan is just the next progression down the line and I am confident that they can achieve success.

The concept is proven, the platform is in the proving process. They're going through all the same processes of testing that a conventional car maker would, safety, reliability, etc. Price and charging stations are a bit of an unknown, but as I've noted in other threads, I would rather keep my charging to my garage as often as possible. I want to give oil companies and other infrastructure providers as little opportunity to jack up the price of electricity as I can.

I'd rather be seduced by someone who tried, even if they do come up a little short, rather than follow someone else that I know is going to rip me off & pick my pocket afterwards.

Just realized that 4000+ reservations * 4000€ is 16 million euros, or nearly $23M. That's lot of money. That's half of what that factory cost to them.

If all of those also buy the car they will be making money almost immediately, and lots of it. No problem for survival, quite opposite.

I just hope that they hurry to produce those following models ASAP. Model S is a bit unpractical to me (in addition to having too low ground clearance). Nissan Qashqai -like small "crossover" would be perfect for me. Or even smaller like that Juke (but obviously with Tesla cool design). 4WD would be big bonus if possible.

@ ocatty...I'd suggest that you view VP Rawlinson's short vids about Model S engineering on this website...Model S engineered as an EV from the ground up...superior in every way from a safety standpoint to an ICE vehicle as there is no ICE to interfere with safety design.

Currently most Roadster owners charge their vehicles at home ...infrastructure for charging will develop with demand as more EVs (by all manufacturers) hit the road...not really in TM's control.

Although TM hit some bumps in the road with the price quotes of the early Roadsters, I think that they have learned their lessons and their current statements about the Model S price and battery option prices can be taken at face value.

@Timo
yes $23m sounds a lot and the signature reservation holder even payed more... but Tesla burned some $150m in 2010, mostly for development of model S.
If the betas arrive in show rooms, we all expect order numbers to rise. The reservation fees will help bringing Model S to production.

@Timo
Your projections are more conservative than mine:

As of April 1, 2011:
US Signature: 249 x $40K = $9.96MM
US General: 3,446 x $5K = $17.23MM
US Road/Friend/Fam 218 x $5K = $1.09MM
Canada Signagure: 69 x $40K = $2.76MM
Canada General: 143 x $5K = $0.715MM
Europe/Asia S: 55 x $40K = $2.20MM
Europe/Asia G: 448 x $5K = $2.24MM
Hong Kong G: 1 x $5K = $0.005MM
Australia G: 17 x $5K = $0.085MM
Monies received: = $36.285MM

Here is the best case scenario (re: 100% conjecture): If every reservation holder listed above purchased a Signature at $80K and a General production at $55K, here is the A/R:

US Signature: 249 x $40K = $9.96 MM
US General: 3,446 x $50K = $172.3 MM
US Road/Friend/Fam 218 x $50K = $10.90 MM
Canada Signagure: 69 x $40K = $2.76 MM
Canada General: 143 x $50K = $7.15 MM
Europe/Asia S: 55 x $40K = $2.2 MM
Europe/Asia G: 448 x $50K = $22.4 MM
Hong Kong G: 1 x $50K = $0.050 MM
Australia G: 17 x $50K = $0.850 MM
A/R: = $228.570 MM

Total potential Revenue: $264,855,000 as of April 1, 2011

Clearly, everyone will not purchase their Model S (and several may withdraw their reservation), so these are not official numbers by any stretch of the imagination. However, I wanted to demonstrate the revenue potential as of April 1, 2011.

They said it was $57,400 two years ago. They said it's $57,400 last month after several months of Alpha testing. That's what it's going to be. Any speculation to the contrary is not warranted.

By the same token, the battery pack upgrades will be no more than $10k for each step. It could be less when the time comes, but it's safe to say that each step up won't exceed $10k. They wouldn't have made the announcement last month without being sure. Tesla can't afford any sort of double-talk or flippant price quotes.

Besides, at this point, the physical pack engineering is probably done. From here on out, any battery-related changes are most likely pack management software tweaks - no physical alterations necessary, no change in cost per unit.

In short, the costs per unit should be known by now, so the pricing for the base model and pack upgrades should be known.

Cost per unit always changes. The more units made, the less each one will cost. Original cost of 200 mile roadster battery pack: $18,000. Replacement pack: $12,000. Sedan 300 mile battery pack: $30,000 (assuming 160 mile base pack for $10,000 built into base price of car) for the first 5000 units. One would expect a 20% drop in battery pack cost @ 20,000 units per year and another 10% drop @ 50,000 a year. This based on existing technologies only. Emerging technologies could drive costs even lower.

Cost per unit decreases but nor necessarily price per unit. This means going forward with lower margins in the beginning and the payback later. For customers this is also more pleasant to know prices do not change.

For other models, that's a different discussion, but Model S will stay the same price for some time :)

I seriously doubt that battery pack cost reductions are going to be anything significant when talking 35 million cells versus 140 million cells when Model S volume increases from 5,0000 to 20,000 per year. However, lately li ion costs have gone down 6 to 8 percent per year.
Certainly the cost of producing the pack itself is not going to nosedive going from 5,000 to 20,000 units, although it's a relatively small cost component of the battery system.
The cost of an electric car, as by now everyone knows (even Chris Paine, perhaps) is dominated by the cost of the batteries, even in rather impractical 100 mile range and less EVs. At this point in time, battery technology, per se, with 15 minutes per 100
miles recharge times, is good enough to replace gas powered cars.
It's really all come down to the battery prices. And they are falling and battery lifespans are improving. There is really nothing to be gained by throwing out on the highways Obama's silly 1 million EVs, as though this would actually mean something.
A million EVs can't affect anything in a fleet of more than 265 million vehicles. The only obstacle to widespread EV adoption is
the high cost of batteries, and those costs aren't reduced by taxing Jim to help pay for Joe's electric car.

The costs aren't reduced by taxing Jim to help pay for Joe's electric car. Very expressive and nice.But Joe pays too and they pay for the health of both. When they pay for gasoline they don't pay for their health, if all goes well ( in the health system) they pay to regain lost health


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