Forums

Join The Community
RegisterLogin

EVs are the Future - Believe the Hype!

I just read an article at Motley Fool's website that I found to be narrow-minded and so full of holes. The writer believe that EVs will be a "niche" market and that hybrids will be the real cars of the future for the next 10 to 20 years. I felt compelled to show the writer all of the flaws in his points. If you're interested in reading this, go to:

http://teslarumors.com/News-2012-02-08-011.html

Here's an excerpt:

He begins his article by questioning, “Are electric cars the next big thing?” He goes on to argue that “hardly anyone has figured out how to make a profit on this category of vehicle.” He suggests too that government funding for the idea is a problem as well. He ends his article by praising hybrid vehicles and stating that “hybrids are the real future of cars” for the next 10 to 20 years.

I find it so ironic that he sees hybrids as the future of cars for the next 20 years. Hybrids certainly will be part of the future mix of cars, but he sees Electric cars as part of a very small niche market, and I think he is dead wrong. In his reference to EVs, he says “They aren’t exactly selling like hotcakes.” His argument is that Nissan, has only sold 10,369 of their Nissan Leaf electric car in about a year and that’s the number of F-100 trucks that Ford sells in just a week. That’s not much of a dent in the whole automotive landscape. Well, guess what John, your future car, the hybrid, wasn’t exactly selling like hotcakes either when it was first introduced. When Toyota created the Prius, the first mass-produced hybrid in 1997, (per Wikipedia) it sold only 300 cars. It wasn’t until 4 years later, in the year 2000, when Toyota was able to sell almost 20,000 of them. Thus, it took Toyota 5 years to sell 1/2 of what Nissan has sold in just 1 year! Even Tesla Motors has pre-sold almost 10,000 of its Model S EVs before it has even mass produced any; and these buyers have never even driven one! If that’s not a real EV demand, you tell me what is!

If any of us were to apply John R’s logic in 1997, then the hybrid car is a “niche” concept that will never succeed. Oh, but wait, that’s right, it looks like they are succeeding---ok scratch that. Electric vehicles are selling better than hybrids when they were first introduced! If we extrapolate that even better initial success, it seems to me that EVs will ultimately have even better success than the hybrid. I suppose that if the writer, John R, had written this article just 15 years earlier, perhaps the title of his 1997 article would have been “Don’t Believe the Hybrid Car Hype”.

continue reading at:
http://teslarumors.com/News-2012-02-08-011.html

Thanks,
Max Mindel
TeslaRumors.com
http://teslarumors.com

Oops! You got your ratios reversed.
"When Toyota created the Prius, the first mass-produced hybrid in 1997, (per Wikipedia) it sold only 300 cars. It wasn’t until 4 years later, in the year 2000, when Toyota was able to sell almost 20,000 of them. Thus, it took Toyota 5 years to sell 1/2 of what Nissan has sold in just 1 year!"

Toyota's 20,000 was twice Nissan's 10,000, not ½!

Thanks Brian. Correcting that.


X Deutschland Site Besuchen