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When will TM surpass $0.01 earnings/share?

Elon thinks it will be in 2013, but is it possible?

How many Model S units must be sold and at what average selling price?

And what about continued expenses for futures cars like Model X and BlueStar?

Assuming TM is able to keep their profit margin above 25% on an average selling price of $65K, spending increases by 10%, 6K production and delivery in 2012 goes on without a hitch and there is still a waiting list by June 2013 that should enable TM to rake in about $300 million in profit and $1.3 billion in revenue.

So, what do you ya think?

I have no idea DD. Alls I knows is that this magical car manufacturer is gonna make me buckets of dough in the next five years!

Mycroft + 1

03/31/2013

I can't say, sorry. My firm audits them.

Kroneal;
change your tag/name and then drop big hints!
;)

8-O

I feel the average selling price for 2012-13 will be more like $75K ( largest sell config will be 230 pack with 7500 in options) and production will exceed 20K units in 2013. They can up production with 2 or 3 shifts almost overnight. Most analysts don't see this and with 60% of the float short ... you do the math $$$$$

I think there will be three factors that will decide this...

1) The price of gas by the end of 2012.
2) The final customer reviews of the Model S, by the end of 2012.
3) Demand for the Model X, and amount of deposits, by the end of 2012.

I think former CEO of GM, Bob Lutz said it best in the documentary "Revenger of the Electric Car"... It all comes down to the price of gas (or something like that).

The main reality is, if gas keeps going up, all EV cars will start becoming extremely popular!

Why low MPG big ICE truck sales have gone up in the last year is beyond my comprehension.

You could hope that Iran tries to close the Strait of Hormuz.

@joefiorelli:

Most analysts don't see this and with 60% of the float short ... you do the math $$$$$

What do you mean by that? Shorts will have to cover and stock will go up?

@Erik M.: What do you mean by that? Shorts will have to cover and stock will go up?

Precisely.

@Teoatawki:

I just wondered how much power the short interest has on price moves. My broker (Morgan Stanley) advised me against buying more, even though they have a one year price target of $44 for TSLA. I find this advice very odd.

@Erik M.

Interesting, i wouldn't use a broker who didn't personally own stocks they recommend their clients purchase. Its duplicitous.

I suppose your broker may be making a recommendation based on your personal situation (ie are you a short or long term investor?). What is your risk tolerance? Portfolio balance? etc

Exactly, too many variables. One may be having too large a percentage of your portfolio in a single stock, or even in a single sector.

At any rate, your broker should be able to tell you exactly why they don't advise buying more.

@Erik M.

Yes, when shorts cover, or are forced to cover because of margin, then TSLA stock will go up.

According my my little research, there were 927,582 luxury cars sold in the USA in 2011. 20,000 Model S's represent a little over 2% of that total. There should be no issues selling all 20,000.

And then assuming the average estimated price of $75,000 for a Model S is a valid number, I'm guessing the 2nd quarter of 2012. And this is not even considering the power trains they are building for other car companies. They should be rocking next year!

Starr;
And they'll be cranking up the X production lines. How soon do you figger they'll sell out 1st yr product for that, and what's your guess about 2013 max output?

Elon said that they expect to sell 15,000 model X crossovers each year.

@Starr X: and then there's the rest of the world....

1. price of gas
2. value of $US (component cost deflation/inflation)
3. proliferation of (standardized) public charging stations

This morning, Seeking Alpha reports on the 2012 Consumer Report's Car Brand Perception Survey. Some of the data are troubling. For example, 77% of respondents expressed concern about range anxiety for EVs. 42% expressed concern about fire hazards (no doubt due to the inaccurate and hysterical VOLT reporting by the media). They express caution about BEV sales growth, particularly for 100 mile range vehicles.

However, they remain bullish on TSLA: Nonetheless, Tesla (TSLA) remains a good bet. Although the coming Model S is a pure battery electric, it offers a range of up to 300 miles and looks set to generate a decent niche market in the luxury sector - as evidenced by the 8,000 pre-orders for the car which were already in place by the end of last year. We recommended buying more of the stock during its recent brief but sharp fall into the $22-$24 range in mid-January. With TSLA now trading above $30 again at time of writing, this looks to have been a good call and we continue to think that the coming Feb 9th unveiling of the Model X is likely to provide a further boost.

I'm not surprised by the 77% number. If you aren't concerned about the range of your EV, then you don't drive anywhere outside the city where you reside. If I weren't "concerned" about range, I would have bought a Leaf already.

The 42% number is a bit troubling, but I think it will quickly be reduced as folks get educated and more cars are on the road.

I'm with you Mycroft.

I wouldn't be looking for a large, comfortable vehicle unless I was expecting to travel with it. If I never expected to use it for anything but around town, I'd have already bought a Leaf. I could have paid for that with cash without much trouble.

And I'd be a lot more concerned about an ICE catching fire. A lot of energy being burned at once. And explosive if there's air and vapors in the tank when it starts.

Just keep in mind that the survey they are reporting on asked people about how they felt about current 100 mile range BEVs.....

I'm upping my estimate above. Average selling price in 2012 will be more like 80-85K (very few 160 packs will be made in 2012). Most stock models use 64-74K* ….. this way to low especially if you factor in options at >10K and 1000 Sigs and who knows how many performance S's. Profit in Q1 2013.

* http://www.trefis.com/company?hm=TSLA.trefis#

If TM sells/ships 6000 Model S vehicles by Jan 31st then earnings/share will be in the black.

That would make total 2012 revenue of $510M from 6000 Model S with an average selling price of $85K. Assuming remaining inventory is mostly sold through for revenue from Roadster (300*$100K=$30M) and reasonable Powertrain sales (5000*$15K=$75M), I get $615M. Very close to TM's number below.

Total Q4 revenues: $39M (up 9% YOY)
Total 2011 revenues: $204M (up 75% vs. 2010)
Expected revenues for 2012: $550M-$600M (mostly in late 2012)
Operating expenses: $89M (GAAP)
Capital expenditures: $54M (mostly building production infrastructure)
Net Q4 losses: $81M (GAAP) or $0.78 per share on ~104M shares
Net 2011 losses: $264M (GAAP) or $2.53 per share

2012 should be an exciting year!


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