It looks like cancellation percentage is very high. Otherwise how can you explain 12,000s delivery in April-May ?
I believe some of the cars has issues in the final quality check and had to go back for rework. This would make an earlier VIN show up at a later delivery date. Taking the "December 16. VIN 2358 pick up" without looking at the other deliveries during the time may not give you an accurate look into production numbers.
The other way of looking at this is that they have exceeded 19k reservations and are signing up folks at a rate of about 600 reservations per week, all according to Tesla rep.
Brian H- yes that was a typo, I meant 400 per week (and that's what's in my math).
I know lots of posters have speculated about rates above 400/wk based on adding shifts at the factory... but I haven't seen Tesla quote anything above 400; so I am assuming that is the critical parts and materials order quantity constraint (meaning they have ordered 400 cars/wk worth of parts.
One line worker was quoted a few weeks ago saying they were doing 80/day. That's 560/wk., during the 7 da/wk push. But you're right, they may have outrun parts of their parts chain. JIT manufacturing is a beach.
I want to come back to this thread after 5 days of silence. There were a lot of people explaining that the cancellation percentage is very low and easily explained why I will get my car with # 14,200+ number in May. But if the cancellation percentage is as low as everybody is saying, how come 12,000+ numbers are getting their cars next month? Every model but Red color are in production. How can you explain it?
I can't figure it out either. I am Res# 12,136 and I am supposed to get my car in the next 3 weeks although I did not hear a word yet. It seems illogical that we should get the cars already when the math does not add up.
Dude chill out. Just be thankful you are not waiting as long as others here to get the car. Hell for selfish reasons I'd be happy if the guy in front of me cancels. That means the possibility I get my car sooner.
@ylyubarsky Lots of reasons, configs with regular suspension, cars with read, they are only building 60kwh and 85kwh, batching for efficiency, etc.
Even with your arguments, how many people ordered red ? How many 40 KwH batteries? According to other threads----not many. I think that people who have concerns have a valid argument. Even with batching, the number progression seems to be going along very quickly and it is hard to figure out how they have progressed to the numbers so fast. I hope this is justified by the high production rate of 560/wk.
First, even if there were a lot of cancellations of earlier reservations I don't think it matters as long as the new reservation rate is high. But I also don't like it when facts are misstated while trying to make an argument. The configurations not being built yet are Red, 40kWh and standard suspension. While I agree that it appears that not many people are ordering the 40kWh, I haven't seen any stats on what percentage are ordering red or standard suspension.
Also, I believe there are quite a few people still "on the fence". They haven't finalized yet, but it's unclear whether they will cancel or finalize when forced with the price increase.
General production deliveries started around the beginning of December. To the end of March is 4 months. At 20,000 per year that would be around 6,600 cars built. If production went higher though, they could get to 7-8 thousand cars. It looks like they will get to reservations double that, so the delayed options plus cancelations may total 50% (less with higher production). What about 10% 40's, 10% red, 5% standard suspension and 25% cancellations (including people who canceled and rereserved to delay when they would get the car). We know 1000 people had canceled by the end of September.
It's all guesses, though.
And NONE of the 40kWh will arrive before the end of March. And the European reservations will only be beginning to trickle out about then.
The Feb 11 Y/E report is going to be fascinating!
I agree with gregv64 - I was in the a reservation holder in the mid 4000's. I deferred when I first got the invite as I wanted to lease. In speaking with Tesla, I got the impression that a lot of people wanted to lease and therefore the deferral percentage was a decent rate.
Ah! Yes, lease deferrals vs. cancellations; interesting distinction. Thanks for the pointer/thought/observation!
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