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Economies of scale

I read that Porsche sold something like 27K 911 cars including various derivatives like the turbo, etc. They are among the most profitable car companies in the world in terms of profit margins, etc. The car is actually quite complicated, especially the engine, transmission, drivetrain, etc. Assembly uses a lot of labor. Model S with less moving parts should be quite profitable, especially with all the automation.

On the demand side, Tesla needs to install the cheaper 50-100 Amp/240 chargers. They may cost 1,000-2,000/charger in places like hotels. etc. $10,000 (price of house in San Francisco) may pay for 5,000-10,000 chargers nationwide. Not as fast as SC, but good enough, especially if they are ubiquitous. Takes range anxiety away. I think this would drive demand.

Porsche also has a long track record, is part of the VW group, etc. But yes, Tesla should be able to be quite profitable selling 20-25K 55-110K vehicles per year. That's really the point, so they can get the money to build Gen III.

You must have a typo in your second paragraph, I think you mean $1,000,000 for a house in San Francisco. You might be able to get a cardboard box in the median of Highway 101 for $10,000 but it would be a stretch! :)

I'll take nine houses at those prices.

I think he means ten million.

$10,000,000. I stand corrected. I think that the 100 Amp chargers offer the biggest bang for the buck compared to $250,000 SC bay costing with 6 hookups.

Compare Tesla Assembly line producing 20,000-25,000 cars/year
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUgDcA1pZAM

versus Porsche Assembly line producing around 27,000 cars/year. Recently bought by VW.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pw8Xl_l28no

Sure the VW relationship helped Porsche, but Tesla gets some help with parts from Toyota, etc. After watching those videos, I do think that Tesla could drop production costs significantly over time. May be even cut prices to drive demand at some point. I think that ASP of $60K for the base 85KWhr would hit the upper middle class mass market spot, especially with large charging network.

TM's big near-term savings are coming from actually getting the volume discounts they have coming, and dialling back the panic big-push y/e production arrangements. The fundamental production line setup they've got is very efficient and inexpensive, but operating it "outside the lines" has been costly.

Personally, I think that slow charger (anywhere from 15 to 80 amps) installation at hotels is more in the interest of the hotel and the customer than Tesla.
I'd prefer that Tesla remain focused on installing superchargers.
Marriott is already leaning towards installing chargers (http://www.marriott.com/corporate-social-responsibility/electric-vehicle...). A few other hotels also have chargers available, especially in 'obvious' destinations for Tesla vehicles such as Las Vegas and San Diego. I think it is only a matter of time before they become more prolific. It is also probably best for the hotel to offer a standard J-1772 than a Tesla connector in order to also attract non-Tesla vehicles.
The thing we Tesla drivers should do is to always ask any hotel we go to whether they have an EV charger since. This will bring the idea to their attention. Remind them that there are over 60,000 EVs on the road today and the number is growing fast.
It can also be helpful to tell the hotel manager that, if there were a hotel in their area with an EV charger, we'd drive or rent an EV and stay at that hotel.
It will happen, the only issue is when.


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