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Latest story on Tesla's stock

I thoroughly enjoy reading topics on the Tesla....wish you great success and look forward to Tesla to Overcome its Q1 loss. http://www.caraccidentrecovery.com/tesla-reports-net-loss-50-million-q1/
www.CarAccidentRecovery.com

I am a bit disappointed. Tesla is spending money on superchargers in China. China is huge. There is no way of building millions of superchargers there. Chinese customers are very affluent and they are city dwellers. They can afford to charge their cars at home and don't need to drive long distances.
I am reading that in China, a Tesla is just another toy for the rich who already own other expensive cars. If so, they don't need superchargers and Tesla is wasting money on building them.
Elon, start thinking of us investors, and show some profit.

Tesla is focused on building a great car and a great experience right now and not profitability. He is a creating a brand to rival Apple. This strategy will pay off in the end and usher the era of the electric vehicle. Just be patient.

The loss had a lot to do with R&D related to the Giga factory, and Model X development. I am not as disappointed in Tesla as I am annoyed with short sellers trying to lower the stock price, so that they can buy in again at a lower price. At the expense of other investors.

The Superchargers in China are being installed so that people will buy Teslas, much like roads and gas stations facilitate the selling of Fords. Also, there is some sort of partnership with a Chinese chain of gas stations, so not sure Tesla is paying for the whole thing.

@EvaP that is some great sarcasm! I hope...

If not, there is no hope for you.

No, it is realism. If you want to keep investors, you show that you can be profitable. Tesla stocks have been fueled by hope for a long time. It is time for some reality.
Besides, you don't invest in a country that could change its policies anytime.
Sell cars to China, but don't INVEST in China!

EvaP: " If you want to keep investors, you show that you can be profitable."

So, Tesla should NOT grow and just say "Hey, we make a lot of cars, let's just keep making 1 style of car and show a little profit."?

Sorry, they're out to change automobile infrastructure, not cater to the investors.

Reality: Tesla will barely show any profits for the next few years as they invest strongly in growth. They will generally match the revenues with their investments in future models, Superchargers, more factories, and technological improvements.

The return on investments in China (and other areas) will more than pay off in the long run.

Focusing on short-term, quarter-to-quarter results in order to appease investors stifles development and encourages poor decision making. Refreshing that Mr. Musk and Tesla Motors are one of the rare high-profile public companies that is taking a much longer-term view and that the board seems to back this strategy.

As a long-term investor, I would like to see more of this out of other companies rather than wasting time, effort, and money worrying about the next quarter's results.

And if you think I am overly pessimistic, look at the price. It is down to 178 and it will go much lower. And there will be no reason for it to go up again until the next quarter. And, if profits are not important, the guy who predicted $50 bucks for Tesla shares could be right pretty soon.

Don't get me wrong. I love Tesla and put my savings into it and I want it to succeed. But it would be nice to see some progress as far as profits are concerned.

EvaP,

Are you a day trader? If not, don't worry about the price today. Listen to the conference call. Money is being invested to eventually one day meet the insatiable demand. Demand is only increasing. Production is building to meet that demand. Have to spend money now, to get the expected returns down the line. I say expected because the demand is there now, just can't produce fast enough. If you can only produce 1 million iPhones and there are 1 billion people wanting to buy an iPhone are you going to invest to expand capacity? Eff yeah! That's what we're seeing now.

Things are rocking in a good way right now... don't get sucked into the traders/analysts TV world where they make money off jerking retail investors one way or another...

FWIW, I see about 10-20 Tesla's on the road EVERY DAY here in Los Angeles... we do "slug bug" every time we see one they're so prevalent. About half don't have a license plate yet, so tells me new customers are increasing...

Maybe LA is an outliner, but, it is crazy how many are popping up here on a daily basis to this day...

Bodes well for the future in my opinion, so keep your chin up...

EvaP, I total disagree. Tesla needs to sell as many cars as possible to spread out its fixed costs. The investment in China will payoff in the long-run.

"millions of superchargers"? I hope you meant "lots". 200 are projected there in the next year or two. A trivial expense, considering the earnings potential.

EVP

i just placed my order for more TSLA. If it goes below 100, i'll liquidate other investments and purchase more. I agree with the others above and believe great things are happening here. We just need to be patient. I think the chinese market has a lot to offer Tesla and hope the relationship will only get better.

TSLA is short sell restricted for 2 days now. This means a lot of the downside was shorting. They hope they can get some longs to sell. Notice how the news says different stories about the earnings. The wealthiest people are hedge fund managers who hold short positions in several stocks and they appear to have influence on the media stories. I have seen this many times. I love to buy when supposedly bad news comes out. GOOG also had a similar stock action after earnings.
One hedge fund manager just purchased the most expensive house ever, $147million in the Hampton.
Its an old story; short the stock and somehow get bad news out to cover. The problem with TSLA is not many are selling but the shorts are patience. They will wait till some news comes out they can capitalize on. If no one sold any shares and more buyers came in the shorts would have to cover at any price would could ignite a short squeeze. They are lots of fun. You would not believe how much money can be made in such a condition. The shorts lost big on SCTY which I bought 20% cheaper in one day. Long term will most likely destroy the shorts in this stock. Timing is difficult but can be fun.

EvsP - "First car they buy they will take apart"... that already took place 2 years ago. Same for VW, BMW, etc...

Do you have an idea why Tesla is rushing into Europe and China? The oil lobby will put walls up... this is pure defense against local restrictive actions.

Did Tesla account for the 850 or so cars that are built, but not yet delivered? I can't find it in the numbers. if not, I would suggest that profit (Non-GAAP) or loss (GAAP) were actually much better than stated. This represents about $85 million in inventory that was not expressed. Am I wrong here?

I think it's ok if the stock drops something it allows you to buy more. I'm saving for a tesla X or preferably a Tesla S 4X4 in January 2016. I have been waiting for the opportunity to buy shares sins in August 2013 but shares rose fast all the time (I should have bought then) but waited for a little fall that normally comes after rapid rise. March came the fall I waited so I bought at $ 230 after a few days later I doubled the number of the amended bought at $ 220 then to day I sold Boing and Coka Cola shares and bought more tesla. I know Tesla shares are going to go far up before I sell them in 2016. My average share price now is $ 216 if I'm lucky I can buy more later this month to less than $ 216 to lower the average price before the stock rises. Buy for long-term savings and you will see the stock is up to $ 500 when MX comes out.

All Tesla has to do is to produce a lot of compelling cars at different price ranges and remove all doubts about charging them.

Superchargers in china are essential. China has the largest luxury car market in the world,
And the most polluted environment . tesla has the best priced
Luxury car in china market.

Elon is revered in china, as opposed to New Jersey.

I wish you guys were right. But we should remain realistic.

http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/personal-tech/Tesla+plans+China+e...

"Chinese leaders want to develop an electric car industry and called in 2009 for annual sales of 500,000 electric cars by 2015 but have scaled back those plans. Industry growth has been slow partly due to rules that limit market access unless foreign manufacturers share technology with Chinese partners that might become rivals."

"Foreign manufacturers that want to produce electric cars in China are subject to import taxes unless they give ownership of key technology to a Chinese partner. Producers such as General Motors Co. and Nissan Motor Co. have chosen instead to import electric and hybrid vehicles and pay duties that boost their price and limit sales."

(there is no way of bolding, so please, pay attention to "share technology" and "give ownership of key technology")

Truth is, in China Elon is dealing with people who have different idea of doing business. Let's hope he has good local advisors.

Off onto another topic, still related to Tesla, is the media still calling Tesla a 'startup.' Tesla was a startup when it produced the roadster, and when it was planning the Model S, but once it became a publicly traded company, it ceased being a startup. It may still be a new company and not as well established as the Big 3, but it is no startup. Even well established brands that were popular a decade or two ago have gone away. Think about Oldsmobile, Plymouth, Saturn, Mercury etc. Just because something is established does not mean it cannot disappear, just as being new does not automatically doom it to failure. The right product at the right time equals success, and Tesla is making giant strides.

Doubting Eva...

EvaP wrote, "China is huge."

Yes. And once the infrastructure is in place, just in time for the Generation III vehicle series to begin production there, Tesla Motors can become the NEW Car of the People. BILLIONS of people.

EvaP protested, "If you want to keep investors, you show that you can be profitable."

If the sole goal of Tesla Motors was profitability, the car to follow Model X would be a Model L limousine class vehicle to rival Rolls-Royce and Bentley. It could be sold to the ultra rich, people who can afford the car no matter how much the batteries cost, with no consideration for weight, allowing maximum range, and could compete on a level playing field immediately and at almost no risk. It would be, in fact, so easy... They can do it later. After GIII is successfully launched. If you cannot wait that long -- bail.

EvaP continued, "Besides, you don't invest in a country that could change its policies anytime."

Oh... OK. So, Tesla should invest in the Peoples Republic of China, because they surprised Elon Musk when he made deliveries there last month by announcing they would be making it EASIER for people to buy his cars there... And likewise, Tesla should divest in the United States of America, because state after state is constantly making it HARDER for people to buy their products. Hmmm... That could work.

EvaP warned,

"First car they buy they will take apart, copy and sell for half price because they are like little ants working in gigafactories."

You know what? That could happen. I'm willing to risk it. Y'know why? Because the Chinese people are honorable, and they LIKE Elon Musk. Genuinely. When they manage to copy Tesla vehicles, they'll be sold in Asia first, then Europe, and even in the United States. That will be fine. It will allow for the propagation of electric vehicles in the market, and stern competition with ICE vehicles at low price points. Exactly the goal of Tesla Motors.

EvaP noted, "Chinese leaders want to develop an electric car industry..."

Yes, they did, and they still do. The problem is that they didn't know how to properly roll out an infrastructure to support it. That is why they are so impressed that Tesla Motors went beyond the call of duty to do it themselves -- even in China.

EvaP quoted, "Foreign manufacturers that want to produce electric cars in China are subject to import taxes unless they give ownership of key technology to a Chinese partner."

Yeah. The Chinese announced they are waiving those taxes on Tesla last month. Why do you think Elon was smiling so brightly? Tesla only has to share technology when he opens a factory in partnership with an existing Chinese manufacturer. Elon had already announced their intent to do that -- before being told the taxes & tariffs were to be waived. Since the Chinese see Elon Musk as honorable, a man who stands by his word, they have rewarded him with unrestricted market access. Other manufacturers don't have it because they aren't viewed as well.

EvaP concluded, "Truth is, in China Elon is dealing with people who have different idea of doing business. Let's hope he has good local advisors."

Yes. Their notion is to be honest, straightforward, direct, to-the-point, and completely above board. Methinks he finds that rather refreshing. A lot better than negotiating with corporate terrorists disguised as 'independent franchised dealerships' in the US.

LeonardD wrote, "The loss had a lot to do with R&D related to the Giga factory, and Model X development."

Precisely. Short term quarterly losses, for the right reasons, which can be spread over the lifetime of what will be a profitable product line over nearly a decade, are a good thing.


risingsun advised, "Tesla needs to sell as many cars as possible to spread out its fixed costs. The investment in China will payoff in the long-run."

Precisely. My dear Aunt Lillie says, "The more you tell, the more you sell!" Tesla is building infrastructure in terms of sales channels and emerging markets as well as building current production, and preparing for the future. A goal to reach, a path to follow, a plan to proceed.


LeonardD wrote, "Off onto another topic, still related to Tesla, is the media still calling Tesla a 'startup.'"

I think the 'startup' label is a result of Tesla Motors:

  1. being based in Silicon Valley;
  2. being seen as a tech company more than anything else; and
  3. being viewed as 'overvalued' in the stock market by traditional financial analysts.

It is kind of funny to use the term about a firm that has been around ten years. They can keep calling TSLA a startup even after their stock valuation exceeds that of Ford Motor Company for all I care. I'm more concerned about other labels.

I checked out documentary videos on YouTube that covered Preston Tucker and John DeLorean. It is truly amazing that the Olde Guard still uses the same tired, old tactics to attack a newcomer to the market. They can't seem to understand that in today's world, they just don't work. Elon Musk is smart enough, and determined enough, and informed enough, to know full well what was done to besmirch and ruin the reputations of those men and the car companies they founded. So he has succinctly prepared for such eventualities at every turn.

The accusations fly, like:

  • In It for the Money -- Nope. He was already rich enough, and squandered it all for a dream -- two of them -- in fact.
  • Only for the Rich -- Nope. Raising funds to release affordable cars for everyone.
  • It CAN'T be Done -- Nope. Lookit. Ten years and already caught up with everyone else.
  • Just a Toy -- Nope. Not just a go-cart. Best car ever.
  • Unsafe, Untested, Unreliable -- Nope. Safest car ever. Confirmed by everyone that matters. Minimal maintenance.
  • False Advertising -- Nope. No advertising at all.
  • Huckster, Charlatan, Jive Turkey -- Nope. Programmer, Engineer, and Physicist.
  • Bull Dog -- Nope. Don't attack him, then act as if you were all innocent and $#!+.
  • Market Disrupter -- Meh. Just doing his thing.
  • Hot Wife -- Well, a man has to have a reason to go home eventually.

A smart competitor would be quiet, lay low, sit back, and watch. They would work silently in the background while engineering and developing a corresponding product line of electric vehicles to release with the full force of their bank accounts and manufacturing capability. It looks to me that will be Volkswagen. < Shhh! Don't tell nobody. >

@EvaP;
You may have noticed the OTT demonstrations of bolding and italicizing following your comment. Basic HTML, using the tags listed below the Reply box, a few of which actually work.

Thanks Brian. I didn't see it.

@Red Sage

Thanks for your reply. I would be cautious to mention honorable and Chinese government/business men in the same sentence. And yes, it worries me a little that Elon's vision is to spread electric vehicles all over the world, regardless of who is building them. Where would be Microsoft, had Bill Gates' vision been "let's spread windows no matter who sells them to the public"?
Their first move was to make sure they have a monopoly.

My vision is to be part of the process, invest in stocks and make some money, and maybe, sometime buy a Tesla.

But I don't want to be negative. Let's hope for the best.

@EvaP - outsourcing is a dirty business, not only China other countries are the same. I have done it around the globe for 25 years. I can give you all the tooling and documents to run our process, you will not be able to make a single working part. There is more to it and that knowledge has to be exported. And once you cross the border it is out there...
Butt is the real tragedy is the US tax code which forces US companies to create more job overseas instead of bringing the profits back to the US ( the moment the money comes back across the border the companies have to US pay taxes - see the Apple debate ).
I have helped to build nine high tech factories around the world, four identical ones in the US, central America, Eastern Europe and China... lowest cost to make the parts = US, highest = China. Yes, it is cheap in China to assemble iPads and make USB cables, but more complex processes China is not competitive today. Surprised?

Look At the Big Picture...

My point is that Tesla Motors sold around 25,000 vehicles last year worldwide. That entire production run out of Fremont California was outsold by the Ford F-Series trucks, in the United States alone, by a factor of 28:1. The Toyota Camry outsold the Tesla Model S as at a 16:1 ratio. Tesla's full 2013 production amounted to 1/600th of all cars sold in the United States of America last year. To put it another way, though they sold every car they could build, it still amounted to the equivalent of 1/6th of 1% of the 15,000,000 cars and trucks sold in the United States of America during the year. That's pretty tiny.

When you have such an eensy-weensy, teeny-tiny, microscopic share of your home manufacturing market, there is no reason to be afraid of what Britain, Germany, Italy, Japan, or China can do to you globally. It's like when you fly in a plane and imagine it crashing. The worst that could possibly happen is that you get hurt real bad and don't die. In this instance, there are so many competitors against Tesla, all working to kill them off, that working with the Chinese who want to see you succeed, so that they may as well, is actually attractive.

Even if Tesla manages to gain 1% of US Market share some day, around 150,000 vehicles, and the Chinese match that three to five years later... So what? Electric Vehicles are the future. That is a fact. Those who say the market is limited are smoking crack and liking it. If Tesla gets 1%, and the Chinese get 1%, there is still another 98% out there to go grab. Plenty of elbow room in the US, and every other market on the planet.

Even if Tesla had manufactured 500,000 cars last year, that would have amounted to something like 3.3% of US Sales. We know that Tesla intends to export about half of their production for some time to come. They may end up exporting at a higher rate if this Dealership fiasco continues to thwart their sales in the US.

No one can build a monopoly, until they have a majority. No electric car manufacturer will have the majority of sales of all new cars within the next ten years -- unless something REALLY awesome happens. You can't get there without partners, without infrastructure, without challenges, or without financial risk. Certainly not without trying.

And really, would you have a problem with 'only' having 25% automobile market share worldwide?

The near-term goal, as Elon put it, was to get next to the decimal point.
And " if this Dealership fiasco continues to thwart their sales in the US"?? Say what? What thwarting? Selling all they can make without any advertising is pretty weak "thwarting".


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