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Model S Reservation Tally

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 249 (March 23, 2011)
P 3,446 (March 25, 2011)
R 218 (January 2011)

Canada
S 69 (March 24, 2011)
P 143 (March 9, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 55 (January 18, 2011)*
P 448 (March 28, 2011)

Hong Kong
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
P 17 (January 21, 2011)

S = Signature Series (Model S)
P = General Production (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family

* = On March 1, 2011, a Tesla member posted, "Got the following info from Tesla some days ago: In Europe they have reduced the Signature down to 500 and approximately 70 have been reserved." While 55 is a confirmed/posted reservation number from this forum, the 70 has yet to be verified by the actual European reservation holder.

As of January 17, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

24,929*1,741/1,393 = 31,157
:( ↓
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (24,929 - 13,260)*549/201 = 45,132
:( ↓
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (24,929 - 18,337)*426/78 = 54,339
.
:( ↓

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 17.9 :( ↓
.
Since June '12: 58.1 :( ↓
.
Since Oct. '12: 84.5 :( ↓

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

Corr;

As of January 17, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

24,929*1,741/1,393 = 31,157
:( ↓
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (24,929 - 13,260)*549/201 = 45,132
:( ↓
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (24,929 - 18,337)*426/78 = 54,339
.
:( ↓

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 17.9 :( ↓
.
Since June '12: 58.1 :( ↓
.
Since Oct. '12: 84.5 :( ↓

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

I didn't say it was surprising Brian, just irritating.

Reservation Date: 1/17/2013
GP: 18,365
Location: South Carolina

DaveFinn: Thanks for the datapoint!

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 18,365 (January 17, 2013)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 624 (December 31, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,532 (January 17, 2013)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 24,935 – January 17, 2013

Net Total: 20,909 – January 17, 2013*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

1)Reservation nr. #2616 (01/22/2013)
2)Europa/Asia
3)P

Has Tesla Motors themselves ever officially made public any information about how many (cumulative number) Model S cars (at a certain moment in the past - i.e. 31st December 2012) they have actually produced and delivered to the buyers?

They release the numbers on the earnings call. The Dec 31 numbers will be released at the Q4 call on Feb 11th (think that is the date)

So, Tesla Motors will release the numbers in February (Q4), in May (Q1), in August (Q2), and in November (Q3).

So, the most recent numbers that have been released are of Q3 2012.
Does anybody have these numbers?

@Benz - go to the TM Investor Relations site: http://ir.teslamotors.com/

Tesla Motors have delivered 250 Model S cars in Q3 2012.
They expected to deliver 2,500 - 3,000 Model S cars in Q4 2012.
And they expect to deliver 20,000 Model S cars in 2013.

This information can also be read in their "Third Quarter 2012 Shareholder Letter" dated November 5th 2012.

We now know that number of Reservations for a Model S car have already surpassed the 20,000. Most of the deliveries yet have to be realised. But that will be done in 2013.

If the Reservations for the Model S car in 2013 will be as prosperous as it was in Q4 2012, then the rate of production of 400 Models S cars per week will not be sufficient to meet the demand. Otherwise new buyers of the Models S car will have to accept a date of delivery which will be further in the future. And that means that they will have to wait longer for their Model S car.

Or will there be another possibility for Tesla Motors to increase the rate of production again? Production of 800 Model S cars per week, is that possible?

I think that the total number of Reservations for the Model S car on December 31st 2013, will be about 50,000 (a few thousand more or less).

Benz: if you go back one page in this thread you can see the numbers which Brian H is tirelessly crunching. They will give you a great extrapolation of recent reservation rates into possible totals by the end of this year.

It appears that my rough prediction of 50,000 is not very far from what Brian H has been calculating.

Tesla Motors have put a great product in the market. That is the only reason that I believe will lead to this estimated total number of Reservations for the Model S by the end of 2013. I just think it's a great car to have. The more people will see it in the street view, the more people will want to buy one. Time will tell.

As of January 17, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

24,935*1,741/1,393 = 31,164
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (24,935 - 13,260)*549/201 = 45,148
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (24,935 - 18,337)*426/78 = 54,372
.
:( ?

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 17.9 :| →
.
Since June '12: 58.1 :| →
.
Since Oct. '12: 84.6 :) ↑

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

Corr;

As of January 17, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

24,935*1,741/1,393 = 31,164
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (24,935 - 13,260)*549/201 = 45,148
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (24,935 - 18,337)*426/78 = 54,372
.
:) ↑

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 17.9 :| →
.
Since June '12: 58.1 :| →
.
Since Oct. '12: 84.6 :) ↑

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

EU P#2632 reported in Norway today.

Boink

Tie;
Don't talk dirty. 'Bump' is sufficient. >;p

Bump...'n Grind

On 22 January 2013 michiganmodels has mentioned in his thread of Model S Reservations that the Net Total was 20,909 Model S Reservations (up to January 17, 2013).

Is it possible to find out:
- How many Model S Reservations have been made with a 40 kWh battery?
- How many Model S Reservations have been made with a 60 kWh battery?
- How many Model S Reservations have been made with a 85 kWh battery?

18,521
So cal
S perform.

Reserved on jan 21st.

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 18,521 (January 21, 2013)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 624 (December 31, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,621 (January 22, 2013)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 25,180 – January 22, 2013

Net Total: 21,154 – January 22, 2013*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

P#2659 reported in Norway today

@Benz: No reservations were made with any batteries. You don't need to figure out what car you want until you finalize. I played around with different scenarios quite a bit until then.

As of January 21, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

25,180*1,741/1,397 = 31,380
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (25,180 - 13,260)*549/205 = 45,182
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (25,180 - 18,337)*426/83 = 54,372
.
:) ↑

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 18.0 :) ↑
.
Since June '12: 58.1 :| →
.
Since Oct. '12: 82.4 :( ↓

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

Corr:

As of January 21, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

25,180*1,741/1,397 = 31,380
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (25,180 - 13,260)*549/205 = 45,182
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (25,180 - 18,337)*426/83 = 53,459
.
:( ↓

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 18.0 :) ↑
.
Since June '12: 58.1 :| →
.
Since Oct. '12: 82.4 :( ↓

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

@gregv64
That's correct.
My mistake.

Jan 22 moving averages for reservations:

4 week moving average: 719 reservations per week, -93 from last report
12 week moving average: 551 reservations per week, -15 from last report
4-12 week moving average: +158, -78 from last report


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