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Post your thoughts, guesses, hopes, expectations, forecasts, guidence, outlook etc. regarding the 2014 progress of Tesla Motors.

Most important will be the increase of the production capacity at the Tesla factory in Fremont. During 2014 the production capacity will rise from 600 Model Ses per week in January 2014, up to 1,200 Model Ses in December 2014.

About 40,000 worldwide deliveries of Tesla Model S in 2014.

About 2,000 worldwide deliveries of Tesla Model X in 2014.

At least 120 operational Supercharger stations in North America.

At least 60 operational Supercharger stations in Europe.

At least 30 operational Supercharger stations in Asia (actually China and Japan).

Would you agree with the above?

40,000 deliveries. Agree.

2000 WW Deliveries of X. Hope this is true.

120 Operational Superchargers is low. I'd guess more like 150.

60 in Europe. Agree.

30 Superchargers in Asia might be high since deliveries to China won't start until after June/July and RHD for Japan is supposed to be then or later.

I have slight adjustments I'd make:

50k Model S (guidance of 35 or 40k). 25k to US, 15k to Europe, and 10k to rest of world (mostly Asia)

1k Model X all at the tail end of the year with 2015 being a big Model X year

100 Superchargers in North America
50 in Europe
15 in Asia

I would also think with the rapidly growing success there will be much more talk of the Giga Factory being built for batteries. Perhaps an official agreement/plan put forth by the end of 2014 so that it would be at least partially built/active by end of 2015.

I agree with you Benz on the amount of Model S delivered. Slightly fewer X's as I believe they will come out late 2014, and although they could put priority on that line I think they might even want to keep it down initially just in case something hw related needs to be fixed.

I also think less Superchargers in Asia. And in Europe I assume that the supercharger-maps will be followed more or less. At some point expansions (more bays) and solar canopies on existing Sc's will come in focus as well.

Benz: I like most of your numbers. I believe/hope that we will see first model X production late Q3 and all sigs delivered by end of the year. I also think that Elon may take a model X out on his cross country trip at 'spring break' or early summer vacation with his kids. I think we will have the announcement of plans for the 'Giga' factory either by themselves (with help of US govt financing) or in conjunction with Panasonic or another big cash player that may have some interest in high tech EV cars (Google?)

Model X deliveries in 2014 could be 0 as well.

Model X deliveries will exceed 5000, easily.

Don't forget 1 giga factory under construction somewhere in the US.

Model X might get many signatures out in Q4, but sensing ramp up production/deliveries will begin Q1 2015. Still have to get a production model out and price points set... and update to the website. Not there yet.

I expect a few token MX deliveries this year. Max 1000, probably much less (many fewer?).

The reason why I mentioned: "Model X deliveries in 2014 could be 0 as well", is that Elon Musk talked about first half of next year (2015) during the latest interview on CNBC with Phil Labeau. And therefore I suspect that they will start with production of the Model X in January 2015 (but it could be December 2014 as well of course).

The first time that the production model of the Tesla Model X will be on display at an International Motor Show will be at the Frankfurt Motor Show in September 2014. Prior to that there will be an official presentation in California (Hawthorne?) where they will reveal the production model of the Tesla Model X for the first time to the world. At least that is my personal expectation.

So, I think that in December 2014 a few hundred Tesla Model Xes will be produced and delivered to customers in the US only. Customers ouside the US will start to receive their Tesla Model X in 2015. Therefore, I think that Brian H is right.

I mentioned in my first post: "About 40,000 worldwide deliveries of Tesla Model S in 2014." Now that would be a bit too conservative, I think.

More realistic predictions would be:

For 2014 my prediction for the combined total deliveries of Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X would be: 44,000+.

For 2015 my prediction for the combined total deliveries of Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X would be: 80,000+.

For 2016 my prediction for the combined total deliveries of Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X would be: 120,000+.

For 2017 my prediction for the combined total deliveries of Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X would be: 160,000+ (and the Tesla Model E is not even included in this total).

I like your numbers Benz, I hope you are right. Straubel's Stanford presentation shows 700,000 cars in 2019. That means probably over 1 million in 2020.

@ JZ13

The Tesla Model S is an EV in the F-segment (Mercedes Benz S-Class, BMW 7-Series, BMW 6-Series, Audi A7, Lexus LS, Porsche Panamera, etc.), and it competes with other premium models (there are very many of those). How many premium model cars are sold each year globally? About 2 to 3 million!!!

And now think about what I said in my previous post: ".... more and more people will start to see that the tesla Model S is a very good/better value proposition compared to other premium brand model cars. And that's when Tesla Motors will really start to steadily eat the market share from other car manufacturers."

Other car manufacturers will start to see that their market share in the premium models will start shrinking.

Therefore I think that even 160,000 (total of Tesla Model S + Tesla Model X deliveries in 2017) is an modest and conservative prediction. It's all about the value proposition of the Tesla Model S and the Tesla Model X (in combination with the Tesla Supercharger network).

The Tesla Model E is going to change the whole game, because then there will be a better value proposition in the D-segment. Then you better start thinking in numbers that will have 7 digits.

Cheers

@Benz,

You are being too conservative. With China pricing out, you need to go back and rethink your numbers ;-)

@ SamoSam

You are absolutely right. And that's exactly what I told JZ13 about 2017: "I think that even 160,000 (total of Tesla Model S + Tesla Model X deliveries in 2017) is an modest and conservative prediction".

I am going to revise my predictions, I just have to give it a little time to think it over.

Today is the start of a new chapter in the history of Tesla Motors. The bounderies of the playing field have changed. It will be very interesting to see how it all develops from now on.

But now the main focus will be: "How fast can Tesla Motors ramp up production to much higher levels"?

We have ample evidence that MS is also bought by those not otherwise in the premium market, so it has a much wider base than its "competitors". It will not only eat into their markets, it will eat around and under them. >:)

I think that Brian has hit it on the nail, he is absolutely right about that. And that makes the pool of customers for the Tesla Model S (and for the Tesla Model X as well) even bigger. Customers who were looking to buy a car from the F-segment will obiously consider the Tesla Model S as an option, but customers who were looking to buy a car from the E-segment will consider the Tesla Model S as an option as well. Just because it's a very good value propesition. People want value for their money. We all want that.

Another question came to my mind: "Will Tesla Motors ever be demand constrained"? Yes, they will someday be demand constrained, but heck that will not happen in this decade!!!

That means that Tesla Motors do have a problem. Which is that they will not be able to catch up with demand in the coming years. They will have to invest a lot of money in the expansion of production capacity. Much more than the $415M which they have already planned to invest in 2014. They are going to have to do that every year. And each time the investment will be higher than the one in the year before.

What about battery cell supply? Well, that new agreement with Panasonic for those 1.8B 18650 battery cells is certainly not going to be enough. They will need many more of those 18650 battery cells in the coming years. As far as I can remember, this has already been mentioned by Elon Musk during the Conference Call of the Q3 2013 Earnings Report in November 2013.

The Conference Call of the Q4 2013 Earnings Report in February 2014 will be very very very interesting to listen to. That Gigafactory is going to be of major importance for the future development of Tesla Motors. I think that they will need to have to have it operational somewhere in Q3 2015.

They will have to simultaneously keep on opening more stores, service centers and Supercharger stations. That is of critical importance to keep the demand growing.

In this decade I see lots of earnings and lots of investments for Tesla Motors. This whole story is getting more and more interesting as time goes by.

My predictions for the deliveries in the coming years are:

2014: S = 44,000+ and X = 400+
2015: S + X = 100,000+
2016: S + X = 200,000+
2017: S + X + E = 400,000+
2018: S + X + E = 800,000+

The future is bright.

Benz,
Can you define what F-segment, and other segments mean?
I'm not familiar with the terms.
Do they start at A and go through Z?

Oh, and my predictions:
2014: Model S: 50,000 Model X: 0
2015: Model S: 60,000 Model X: 10,000
2016: Model S: 75,000 Model X: 40,000
2017: Model S: 100,000 Model X: 100,000
2018: Model S: 100,000 Model X: 100,000
2019: Model S: 200,000 Model X: 125,000 Model E: 50,000
2020: Model S: 250,000 Model X: 150,000 Model E: 300,000

Why?

Because Model S will find efficiencies in production and battery delivery that will open up the numbers faster than expected; adding another shift to the production line.

Model X will not have any deliveries in 2014 due to quality control needs (yes, they want to have it like Model S to be Car of the Year when it comes out.) They'd rather delay another few months to get everything right than to hit production delays after the first run of cars.

Model E will wait an extra year or two for battery production to catch up, and economies of scale for production of an entire car series. They'll get some out in 2019, but in full production mode in 2020.

@ Holiday

The F-segment is that of the more expensive and larger luxery & sports sedans like: Tesla Model S, Mercedes Benz S-Class, BMW 7-Series, BMW 6-Series, Audi A7, Lexus LS, Porsche Panamera, etc.

I appreciate your contribution and I respect your predictions, but to be honest, I think they are debateable. I mean to say that everyone will defend his/her own predictions, and that is good.

Please allow me to do that per year.

2014:
The whole point is: when will Tesla Motors have the new production capacity ready and operational? The sooner the better. And I indeed hope that you are right about "the efficiencies in production and battery delivery". And yes, you could be right, and yes that would be better because the number of the Tesla Model S deliveries would be closer to your prediction than mine. About the Tesla Model X; I think that they will deliver at least a few hundred.

Later more.

@Holiday

"2015: Model S: 60,000 Model X: 10,000"

Model X reservations are already at more than 10,000. And when the production version of the Model X will be revealed (July 2014?), then the number of reservations will really start to rise rapidly. Before January 1st, 2015, there will be about 50,000 reservations. And at least 40,000 reservations will result in an actual sale of a Model X.

"2016: Model S: 75,000 Model X: 40,000"

In 2016 The Supercharger network will have been pretty much completed in the US, Europe and the Eastern part of Asia (China, Japan, etc). And it will appear that the demand for the Tesla Model S and the demand for the Tesla Model X is pretty much the same (about 100,000 each). In 2016 new battery cells with more capacity, less weight, less volume, and a lower price per battery cell are revealed. Somewhere in 2016 the Gigafactory will become operational. Reservations for the Model E will have surpassed the 100,000 mark a few weeks after they will have revealed the production version of the Tesla Model E, somewhere during the summer of 2016.

"2017: Model S: 100,000 Model X: 100,000"

The demand for the Tesla Model S and the Tesla Model X will have stopped to increase furthermore. This has all got to do with the value proposition of the Tesla Model E. Just compare the Tesla Roadster and the Tesla Model S and the prices of both EV's, then you will understand what I mean. The Tesla Model E will be affordable by many people. The Reservations for the Tesla Model E are coming in like never before (1,000 per day?). Production cannot keep pace with demand. Tesla Motors starts a new car factory near Beijing (to feed the Asian demand), and near Tilburg (to feed the European demand).

"2018: Model S: 100,000 Model X: 100,000"

In January 2018 Tesla Motors reveals its Tesla Model T (you guessed it right, it's a truck). The reservations for the Tesla Model T have surpassed 400,000 in December 2018 (mainly in the US) before anyone got the chance to do a test drive. Tesla Motors has almost 100,000 emplyees worldwide. There are more than 1,000 Supercharger stations worldwide. Tesla Motors opens its second battery cell factory near Beijing and its third battery cell factory near Tilburg. TSLA reaches an all-time high of 1,200 USD.

"2019: Model S: 200,000 Model X: 125,000 Model E: 50,000"

Tesla Motors delivers more than 1 million EV's for the first time in one year. Tesla Model T goes in production, and Tesla Model R is revealed (it goes in 2 seconds from 0 to 100 km/hr). People from Ferrari, Porsche, Lamborghini, Bugatti, etc are getting very nervous. Elon Musk reveals his first concept for a Tesla Electric Jet. Many car manufacturers start to license the technology of the Tesla drivetrain and the Tesla Superchargers. TSLA is at 2,000 USD.

2020 is the start of the next decade, and also the start of the next chapter of the story of Tesla Motors (and the content is yet too difficult to describe/predict).

Did you enjoy reading it?

@Benz
Yes, it is a nice read.
We have to bear in mind that the growth and increase in production is not just a function of the 3rd shift, increase in production lines and a giga battery factory; it is a function of Service capability as well.
Elon said that he doesn't want to increase the production even if the increase is possible, if there is no capacity in the Service organisation to support the increased volume of cars.
So count this variable in as well. This one is however less predictable than the others.

Don't ask me. I thought I was going to have a rare and unusual car. I was very, very wrong.

Today I on a short outing to a store I drove past 2 model Ses and parked near another one at the store. When I drove my last car I would see another one on the road maybe once a year.

@Darko

You are absolutely right, service centers are indeed of critical importance.

In the 2018 column I have written: "Tesla Motors has almost 100,000 emplyees worldwide."

A lot of those employees will be working in the stores and service centers.

We live in a wonderful decade, a revolution is about to happen, enjoy it.

Building out a real high volume next generation production line for the Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X.

During the Conference Call of the Earnings Report of Q3 2013 on November 5th, 2013 (after 10 minutes) Elon Musk spoke about R&D investments for "volume production expansion for the Tesla Model S" and for "building out a real high volume next generation production line for the Tesla Model S and for the Tesla Model X".

The production capacity is going to rise enormously somewhere in 2014, when this "real high volume next generation production line" will be operational. Although the rise will be steadily, not instantly.

During the Conference Call of the Earnings Report of Q3 2013 on November 5th, 2013 (after 49 minutes) Elon Musk says: "The production of vehicles is not going to be a constraint, that's not a limiting factor."

So, ones the supply constraint issues are solved (mainly battery cells) and when this "real high volume next generation production line" will be operational, then they will be able to produce in much higher volumes.

And in December 2013 The California Alternative Energy and Advanced Transportation Financing Authority allowed Tesla Motors to purchase up to $415 million worth of manufacturing equipment without having to pay sales and use tax. Therefore Tesla Motors received a $34.7 million tax break.

In which month of 2014 will the "real high volume next generation production line" most likely be operational? And how much will the production capacity be at the end of 2014?

Benz, Great read. I disagree with some of your thoughts, but that's the fun of the forum. (Great topic too!)

You define the "F-segment", but can you define other segments?
A-segment?
B-segment?
etc
etc

This will be a great thread to visit at the end of the year to see how we all did on our predictions.

I assume the next production line is being put together, but haven't heard much about that. Wonder if signs of that would be visible to tour members.

Benz - We are in full agreement. Your post reads much like my Tesla Timeline post.

@JZ13

Yes, that's right. The difference is in the details.

Nice reading Benz. Thanks. In addition to all the above, I would add the distinct possibility TMC announces a deep collaboration this year with an unregulated subsidiary of an electric utility, or something of the like. It's a real chance at vertical integration. Grid opportunities abound and the utility world needs the vision and spirit of Tesla. The announcement of of coupling with DB Energie last month is a precursor to a larger deal...just my opinion.


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