How do i go about buying shares in Tesla? Thanks.
Investing IS about future growth. However short term (inside of 10-20 years) there are a few things to think about.
Doing some very rough volume counting, it appears like 24.5-26 million shares have been acquired since thursday mornings ~3,000,000 positive volume tick (I'm using every 15 minute candles).
We know the last shot interest reported yesterday was 27 million as of the end of April.
I very much doubt ALL positive ~26 million accumulation was cover action. Probably half these shorts are still waiting for failure. Chances are half of these are professional traders (something like myself at least part time; esignal, chart pattern reader kinds) and half aren't.
Important point: professionals/semi pros, that is to say experienced investors almost ALWAYS set a limit for losses. I usually limit bleeding at a trailing 7.5%. You can do this with shorting too. It's called a trailing buy to cover stop order.
That leads me to think many of the shorts out there are emotionally attached to these trades. Many of them either peeled trailing cover orders off or never had them in the first place (WTF?!).
That tells me its likely that maybe we can speculate that half (if that!) of the recent price action is cover action. It's very likely there is still squeeze potential out there. Wait for the supercharger announcement to hit, and it's possible some of these pokey shorts will cover up.
There is one other element we need to address. Some brokerages have instated Hard To Borrow fees on short positions of TSLA. Lots of professional platforms will do this - like Interactive Broker. Platforms which, arguably encourage, high frequency trading.
I know of at least one brokerage now charging 40% annually as a hard to borrow fee on TSLA shares. I cant say if there are others. The way this works, is, the brokerage may have had to borrow shares from ANOTHER brokerage to even complete the original trade because available shares are in such short supply. This means a 40% annual charge on CURRENT face value is being charged monthly to the shorts. So these guys are losing about 3% a month (off of ~$75, not an original purchase of $35 or $40 - HUGE difference) just to stay short. Either way this is expensive time to bide for a better cover. In the case that you shorted from $30...Well I wouldn't like to do that math. Just waiting just a few months if your privileged to a hard to borrow fee could negate out, well your entire trade in the first place.
Cliffs Notes: Shorts may be forced to cover soon, wait for supercharger announcement and european sales. Longs MAY want to take a breather somewhere, but its more likely that q2 is just sideways trading rather than pulling back to give better entry. Is the company overvalued on paper? Yes... But near term its possible the shorts will provide undercurrent support. Long term, I really am starting to believe this is a multibagger - and I'm not emotionally attached (yet...Might be getting an S soon...)
YTD, TSLA is in the 100% gain bracket. Could it happen again?
@jk2014 - Model X is the game changer... Gen3 is the icing.
well my S is more than covered in my gains over the last 6 months. Thanks Elon and company for an awesome vision and product. I too believe we are in the beginnings of a multi-bagger. (I'm thinking a 10 bagger over a decade from where I got in is very achievable)
So I'm just waiting for the prices to come down to around $70/share so I can make a big investment.
Is that a reasonable price or should I just buy now?
It seems you are not the type to be charting bases and looking for doji star turn arounds.
If that sounds like japanese to you (assuming you dont speak japanese of course), then you will probably fall into the long term investment category with TSLA now.
Anything other than a long term hold (1-3 years) would probably be a poor time to invest. There are no readable patterns and recent movement is irrational. A short term trader looking to get in NOW is probably something I'd advise against.
For a trader who's already LONG you could feasibly keep the positions now and look for a potential turn around but good luck reading anything into it. Maybe I will be able to sell prior to a slight pullback and then buy back in with my proceeds as a larger position, but I really dont know how likely that is - right now I cant tell which way is north until I get the next short interest read on May 15 (reported probably around may 18). That will at least give me some guidance.
I would say to anyone else there will be hiccups along the way, but probably five years from now current pricing will look CHEAP. I do think Elon is pretty with it and Tesla might really work.
I really try to stay disconnected from the company, of course I'm rooting for it, but that makes for bad decisions sometimes, but long term, it a very interesting speculative play.
Tesla, if it works, certainly has MASSIVE growth potential.
If you have good standard of living and could afford to, worst case scenario, lose the money, than go for it. NEVER PLAY WITH WHAT YOU NEED FOR THE MORTGAGE (if you have one) or debt payments!!!!!!!!
P/E is what you talk about, EPS is what you trade. Reminds me of the saying "horsepowers what you talk about, torque is what you drive"
If I'm not giving a definite answer and your frustrated - this is how investors talk. Try listening to buffet :)
That said, I'm looking for two Gen III's when their out.
I owned Cisco since 1992. Do stocks really make more than 100% over a lifetime?
Check those charts.
What are the chances that a major disrupting event impact the demand for Tesla Model S and thus impact the share price? For example another EV, even not directly a competitor, could make an unexpected announcement and release a car that attracts the low-end of market for Model S. I'm thinking of say an Infinity LE next gen or such. Although at significantly lower range and class, but still due to lower price, it will distract some buyers away from Tasla.
Would like to hear from more knowledgable folks on this thread regarding such possibilities (but please don't beat me up for my example above, not suggesting Infinit will compete with Tesla:-), I'm talking about the investment market reactions).
Ok, shoot now...
That is a big deal. Tesla is currently probably overvalued in some sense according to its current state of financial affairs.
The price may make sense as it currently stands but it has significant expectations attached to it. The argument 'longs' are making now is that "In 5, 6, 10 years Tesla could be a multibillion dollar company!". I agree, it very well may; however for the time being, it earned low double digit millions this quarter.
Generally stocks are valued to current earnings (this is how 99% of securities SHOULD work). Tesla here is the exception because the potential for fiscal success is SO huge IF it works. People are willing to value tesla at what it could be worth, 3, 4, 5 years from now.
If Tesla doesn't make it through a hoop - us longs are in trouble. That would significantly delay 'time til expected value'.
I do think however, Tesla has a huge competitive "moat" around it. Other EV companies don't really seem to be a worry at least at this point. The market, my own analysis backed up by a test drive among other things, patents, and reviews, suggest to me at least, that Tesla has the overwhelming superiority in the EV market for now.
I guess Nissan Leaf is the only other comparable vehicle at this point, being a zero-gas vehicle. The range, warranty, and unknowns (does is behave in varying climates?) leaves significant room for improvement. Plus it's ugly. The engineering expertise and patents suggests to me, Tesla is years ahead of the competition.
Dutch -- you are still not looking at the big picture with Tesla. Tesla develops energy storage systems (i.e. battery packs). Energy storage systems are what many households in America will have in 10-20 years. Add business (hotels, warehouses, office buildings) and government (military) and this could be a huge revenue stream outside of vehicle sales. This, of course, in partnership with SolarCity which is another value add. Also, consider every other device or machine that require energy storage and the skies the limit.
There are other revenue potentials, but will have to write a novel to explain them all. They are that vast.
Elon does blurt out a lot, but he also can be discrete about future areas of interest.
We could say Tesla is the proprietor of the future so-called hyperloop too. That's just too far fetched to consider as an investor currently or for the next number of years.
For now, I, as well as the market, view it as a car company. The minute Tesla begins to sell batteries is the minute it will count as far as the stock is concerned. Trust me, if it's not in the 10-K (including forward looking statements), its non-existant as far as an investor should be concerned.
I'm not saying your wrong, but for now, I believe Tesla isn't a battery and energy storage company. If you were in the market for a battery stock in the immediate and foreseeable future, but Panasonic, or much better yet check ticker ENS.
It's not so much that Tesla develops energy storage systems as it develops power conditioning systems and management for existing storage products - as it currently obtains Panasonic batteries. You are absolutely correct though - Panasonic batteries are much improved by the utilization of Tesla patented technology, but the biggest way is through thermal regulation.
Thermal regulation (more cells instead of a giant cell preventing malignant temperature increases, AND actively controlling the actual cell temperature through heating and cooling elements) is their biggest competitive 'moat' in the energy storage management area. It's probably true that this is much more a factor in vehicles than in homes.
Again, I'm not saying your wrong, but I would advise caution valuing that into the stock. For now.
Dutch -- do you know how much development Tesla has done with panasonic on the batteries? They are very much involved, unlike any other company using the same base battery product. Panasonic acts more like an outsourced factory then a vendor, IMO. If panasonic batteries were the source of the range and reliability of Tesla's system, then why isn't GM, Ford, any other established car company coming out with 200+ range? Because they can't do it. Tesla has the patents to make sure they don't do it for awhile/if ever. I can't remember which Tesla executive said it, but they told the big three to move on to the next propulsion idea because they've beat them to it. I interpret this as we have a barrier to entry in this market (BEV), move on because you won't figure out a way around it.
In our industrial history, many big things have come from innovations that were meant for other purposes. This is no different in Tesla's case with the battery storage system tech. In combination with the exponential growth of solar, specifically SolarCity, Tesla will have a readily available market to take advantage right now. Military will most likely be first to make a mass order soon, since they are expanding their contract with Solarcity to install PV systems. Not only are they sold on how solar reduces energy expense, but to have distributed energy capabilities looks really good for energy security reasons as well.
Don't discount this future surprise move in the near future.
I need to do more reading.
You may have me eating my words I'll definitely look more into this.
Any links to bring me further up to speed?
I do really feel though, that the next big capital intensive hurdles are getting the Model X out and the Gen III production and development.
It's very unlikely we will see any bit new energy storage business derivatives until the primary business is thoroughly flourishing... Along that thread, I do think that marketing the company in a completely different direction, or even simultaneously expanding in another direction would probably be received as a bad thing by wall street right now. We (I'm long and a probably not to distant future owner as well) are winning the mental E-automotive war, but there are a couple important battles yet to wage.
I personally am becoming more of a believer everyday (I'm 'paid' in my second job here of trading to be skeptical, but certainly never spoke against tesla - I have a chemistry undergraduate and love successful science based companies)... But we need to convince the rest of the world this REALLY will work - even down to the Gen III sedan/coupe level.
It's extremely nice to hear about second stage growth potential outlays though...That is what I would consider something like that...and thats also what makes double digit bagging equities...
Are you aware of the 3-d battery technology that is coming out of the University of Illinois? Besides bringing more bragging rights to my state in terms of our energy research - http://green.autoblog.com/2013/04/22/university-illinois-recharges-li-io...
There are other links, but here are a couple to whet your whistle on the business right now...
Buffett is already ahead of the game with China's BYD.
However, the US market is wide open for Tesla (or subsid.). Solarcity will push it's way in soon I think. They already have pilot programs going on as I write this.
well...wish me luck guys, im buying 120+ shares this monday, hopefully i can somehow get them around $75/share
any tips on whens the best time of day to buy?
Another thing to consider. what do you guys think will happen to Tesla's old batteries.. a 85k battery with 50% capacity is a perfect candidate to be used in a house solar system.
teslajolt -- right on. This is very much in the future, IMO. To accelerate adoption of electric vehicles, Tesla will look for all and every opportunity to do so. Energy storage systems for homes and businesses (and other areas) will help develop economy of scales quicker, which brings down unit price faster, which then gets us closer to mass market sooner. Sparks more battery research and development, etc... can't deny its effect on achieving Tesla's stated mission...
I don't see any risk from competitors in the next couple of years at least. For one thing, Tesla has a better battery solution by far than that used by other automakers so far. It is also worth noting that with the sole exception of Renault-Nissan, no automaker has made a strong commitment, and engaged in the capital expense, to support the production and sale of large quantities of EVs. Take Ford. They have the Focus EV, but they don't make any effort to sell it because it is just a compliance car.
Interesting stuff JK.
I'll keep that in mind.
Acura place a limit order on 75.00 a share. Mostly likely based off recent volatility it will trigger. Don't hold me to that - you'd have to watch it intraday. Based off recent movements this thing is unpredictable.
@AcuraKidd, It is possible that some shorts may need to cover early in the morning on Monday, if they got margin calls on Friday from the new high close, or even on Thursday, from that high close. If so, the price could open quite a bit above $75 or rise quickly under heavy volume.
But note that the volume on Friday was somewhat lower than on Thursday, and that between both over 50 million shares were traded. It is not at all clear how many shorts are left.
Monday could be especially tricky. It might open up, but close down, or flat. Let's say it closes flat. Then Monday would be the first day to produce no fresh margin calls. The short squeeze would be over. If that doesn't happen on Monday, it can happen on Tuesday, or Wednesday. TSLA will be flat at some point and that removes the short covering. The market will balance. At what price? Nobody knows.
Be very careful, but if you are set on buying regardless, try to be disciplined about your entry price. Set a limit and stick to it. Don't get caught by the momentum and rationalize spending more than you planned. Understand that you are late to the party, the easy money has already been made.
Elon is of the opposite opinion.
I think TM's capital stream will be fully occupied with the automotive end products for many years.
Hi, am EU Sig Perf+ (all options) reservation holder and have a couple of hundred of TSLA shares. Beeing honest I also hold some put options to secure my position. SRY
But I was thinking actually to put may remaining 90k € to pay on delivery into TSLA Stock untill the actual day of delivery (#289 SigPerf+ Jul/Aug). If I can make 19% it would cover ther german VAT :-)
What do you guys think. This would be like 1500 shares or so?!?! Don't want to risk my money I put to aside for my baby, but I have a feeling the shares can hit 100 $ before July.
What do you guys think...should I take the bet :-)
ELon himself said Q2 won't be profitable, not sure i understand why but he said it during the earning FAQ webcast, share will drop around that time me think
I agree with kilimats. Even tho Elon said Q2 will not profit share holders will still be surprised and upset and sell. The problem with Q2 is they are going to make thousands of cars and not get paid for them until Q3 because the cars will be on a boat going to EU. Q3 might be a different story.
Elon is getting better and better at managing news. Sure there will be up side in the Q2 announcements, that he probably already knows, looking ahead to exceed expectations each time.
Year over year Q2 2013 compared to Q2 2013 will still look pretty good. How many cars did Tesla make in Q2 2012 ?
I think every quarter will be at least marginally profitable this year. The costs of cars in transit to Europe are not counted as expenses until they are sold (delivered). Basic bookkeeping.
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