Okay, I'm clearly going nut waiting for my MS, so here's a game to distract me. What will the closing price of TSLA be after the earnings report on August 7? Closest wins, not Price is Right style.
I'm guessing $142.75.
It will be > $142 BEFORE Aug. 7.
@NoMoDinos - the assumption here is that you are not already nuts. :)
Agree, >142 before Aug 7. Jumped 5+ today with BMW's i3 Announcement. Guess folks yawned and went back to caring about Tesla.
August 6th peak at 160 (mini short squeeze) with some moderation after the 7th.
Determined via the S.W.A.G. method:
Velo - excellent point. One cannot lose the marbles that one did not first possess.
I am saddened and amazed that BMW made something so horrible-looking.
Kevin - I think the remaining Seeking Alpha authors had just been using the W.A.G. method.
Or 2nd method...
Ok, NoMo.... You can borrow my car. Come get it :)
Lola - Sweet! Since the caravan I'm driving tops out around 50 mph (before the squeaking noises start), and I'm in California, I'll see you in around 5 days.
(btw, before Brian can swoop in, I'm going *nuts*, not nut. Another sign I'm going nuts)
Tobi - yes, and they have been known to use that particular method excessively.
Also, after seeing the i3 in video, I have now upgraded my guess to $147.52.
$190 - or at least that is what I hope it gets to. That is the number at which my Tesla stock purchase will have paid for my Tesla S purchase.
KevinR - I like your number but I think it's the upside for August 7 before earnings (call is after market close I believe). $148 is my bet before call. Move up again tomorrow several $, sideways a couple days, resurge Monday/Tuesday to $148 high at 9:10 AM Wednesday 8/7.
I think (fantasize) that before year's end, at around $180/share, they go get another $1B to accelerate the adoption of, oh, everything - battery research, superchargers, Model X production, Gen3 design/prototypes, galleries, service centers, other continents, etc.
At Teslive Elon seemed slightly incredulous no one has jumped the EV train, and when you look at the tricycle BMW is going to make with a lawnmower engine to extend range, he must be thinking everyone who makes cars are really, really numbskulled. So he wants to show 'em.
Please put your seatbacks and tray tables in an upright and locked position for takeoff...
I also feel like there's a mini short squeeze on the way. $158 on August 7. Up to $180-190 by end of August.
Cattledog - great blogs on wordpress, btw. I've been following for a little while. Especially liked your coverage of Teslive.
after the report? I am going to say $166.
We just sold a property. I was going to re-invest the money in another property, but now I'm thinking about increasing my Tesla portfolio 10x. It is a bit of a gamble, but I just can't see Tesla doing anything but going up. I worry a little that the report won't be very good because they are spending a lot of money opening new stores and service centers, and building superchargers. Long term it will pay off, but there could be a 10-20% drop after Aug. 7th. On the other hand, if the report is good, it will go up 10-20%. AAArrrggghhh!
Have there been any tweets/hints from Elon on what the report will look like?
NoMo - Thanks, it's been fun doing it, I'm no tech wizard so it's all part of the new world that came with the car.
I think the stock will drop >5% after reporting especially seeing how bullish everyone else is. Buy the rumors sell the news. Btw I'm a shareholder and long term bull.
At 220, I get a free car, my investment back, AND a small profit!!! Go Tesla!
Love the optimism! :)
Kjin - I was a bit afraid of this at first, but based on the VIN estimates at least it looks like sales will exceed expectations. Here's hoping.
Rdalcanto - it's all good in the long term, I can't imagine how the value won't go up substantially with additions of the MX and GIII. That being said... yeah, August 7 is anyone's guess :) I'm tempted actually to sell off a bunch if right after the reports, but get spooked when I re-read people trying the same thing at $60 and not getting a pull-back. Ouch. I think Asia will really rocket the price when it kicks into full gear.
I'm holding the stock. After MX and GIII, we're likely to see a huge amount of growth. And hopefully again after the supercharger network spans the US, and perhaps the battery swaps. With GIII, they can probably build a roadster/911 competitor as well.
I'm currently at 1.5x my own car, and would like to make real money on TSLA.
Last I checked, Porsche was worth like $50B. It seems like Tesla can beat up on Porsche pretty well over the next 3-4 years, but if they match Porsche's market cap it will take the stock to $420 or so.
A friend of mine is an Apple fan and he bought $100k when it was near its nadir because Jobs was coming back. At some point, his position hit something like $20M. He's subtle about it, and I just thought it was a cool thing he'd done. But now what I realize is... his discipline! At 10x, I don't know if I could have resisted selling.
But think about this moment in time. Every single person that has experienced my car -- and she gets around -- has afterwards taken it as a given that BEV is the future. When iPhone came out, it was incredibly obvious to me that it was the future.
Funny enough, it seems like Tesla will play out in a similar way to iPhone. Slow competitors were held back by legacy concepts, like Blackberry needing to keep the physical keyboard. But the real killer for Microsoft/HP/Dell/Etc in the "post PC" world is this -- people aren't upgrading their old desktop / laptops at the same rate. Since mobile is good enough for 90% of uses, I keep my old Mac mini and don't even care about upgrades. When I need a bigger screen I use my older computer.
By analogy, we'll keep an ICE minivan for longer road trips. It's easy. No reason to upgrade it or sell it. At some point, supercharging will fill in the gap, but having an old ICE car hanging around for the odd times I need it is simple.
If that is how this plays out, and I cash out early on TSLA, I'll be crestfallen. I'd rather lose 30% of my original investment, than have been a part of the revolution and cashed out early. If you dumped Apple at only a 10x return, when 200x was a few years away, how would you feel?
I'm looking for an opportunity to get in and keep missing it. I was on a cruise ship a couple weeks ago with no internet only to find out when I got back that it dipped to $108. I would have jumped on that instantly.
After owning this car, my desire to invest in the company is significantly higher. You've got to drive one to get it. It's one thing to admire from afar or to think it's cool but it's something totally different when you drive and experience the electric powertrain and technology in this car. Even with the technology that it should have that is currently missing is likely just a few updates away.
I purchased mine without ever driving one. I did visit a Tesla Store while traveling for an hour or so but never drove. Came home and ordered the car. Couldn't be happier.
Tesla is special.
Interesting comparison... funny how the stock is currently up 2.6% in early trading when the market overall is down. Guess everyone is gearing up for Wed.
Nice run today! Well, I'm out already, clearly not optimistic enought :) I'm thinking Jilla will be closer to the number.
Rd - I wouldn't bet against Tesla, that's all I know.
Matt - couldn't agree more, Tesla is a classic case of brilliantly excecuted ,disruptive technology. I'm holding for the long term as well (although I did sell just a bit off to pick up some Yelp last week). I have a friend who also got into Apple early and rode it to some gains, but dumped too early and has regretted it since.
Bruce - it's funny how we are exactly flipped. I picked up the stock before getting my MS, and you were sold on the car first.
Renegade - can't wait!
As a Sig owner and shareholder who is not selling, I think if TM does not beat earnings estimates it will drop down to the 120s. Even if it equals estimates. There are many waiting for the hot ride to end, many bears who think it's too good to be true.
That doesn't mean long-term stock prices will be affected. It's just a Pavlovian reaction to a modest and temporary report.
BTW, my pay-for-my-car price was 88, so I'm no nay-sayer.
Missed it by that much.... :o)
NoMo and Iowa92x nailed it on the first 2 posts!
Iowa predicted "It will be > $142 BEFORE Aug. 7". At close of market Aug 6, the price is $142.15. Well done!
I'm still holding out for my prediction of $158 on Aug 7, but it's feeling like a stretch right now. $158 on Aug 8, however, is totally within reach :)
Someone often guesses the # of jellybeans in the jar. Once. Twice, never. ;p
Kevin - you probably just had it backwards, 160 tomorrow ;)
Rzitrin - if that happens, I'm picking up a bunch more shares!
Jamon - kudos to iowa92x who hit it perfectly, but my prediction is probably either long or short, I doubt it will sit right there after the report. Exciting stuff either way!
Brian - I was always terrible at the jelly bean game... now ping pong balls, there's a man's guessing game!
The Q1 profit was 11m, but included 66m is sales of emission credits to ICE companies, that were needed to offset their poor performance and required for them to sell in CA (details may not be 100% accurate, but the concept is correct). The market for these credits continues and MS sales have increased dramatically in Q2. The price increase will help build the bottom line. The future is bright. I can see $150. I think the earnings announcement will also include some other significant statement that will encourage future growth. We will see tomorrow.
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