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SuperCharger Betting Pool ........ And the Winner is ....

The SuperCharger announcement is due in about a week, so let the betting begin!

1. Charge Time - currently 30 minutes for 50% recharge. What will the new rate be? 20 min, 15, 10?

2. Charge Level - currently slows down after reaching 50% of full charge. What will be the new cutoff level? 60%, 70, 80?

3. Location Spacing - currently 150 mile target distance between SC stations. New target? 120 miles, 100, 80?

The SC network is a unique competitive advantage of Tesla. I expect they will leverage it more and more to propel adoption. It's absolutely unparalleled in the gasoline world.

How quickly and extensively they enhance the network will have a dramatic effect on their growth rate. Improvements on the three metrics above are high value gains.

This is a rare, historic moment where one company, under a single CEO, can play both the roles that Ford and Standard Oil did a century ago. Except this time around, it will get built right, by someone with a vision for a long term solution that can sustain us indefinitely.

The poster with the best combined score gets bragging rights, (and a pinch of immortality) in the forum archives of one of this century's most important enterprises.

Transportation gets reinvented. Is this awesome, or what?

My shot -

1. 10 min

2. 70%

3. 100 miles

OK, that's a lot, but hey, why not think big?

1. 20 min

2. 65%

3. 150 miles

1. 22 min

2. 60%

3. 100 mi

1. 20 min

2. 80%

3. 120 mi

I think 2 is already 70 or 80, not 50.

120KW SC and new 120Kwh accupack as top line

1. 20 min
2. 70%
3. 120 miles

Curious-what would be the cost of electricity (on avg) to Supercharge 150 miles, say if a business were to provide a supercharge capability?

1. 20 min
2. 80%
3. 120 miles with a twin location 20-30 miles away at key locations ( like Gilroy )

note: most interesting aspect of the announcement for me will be how the roll out strategy has been adjusted. TM has some usage data now... Twin locations because I think a single shopping centers is not yet willing to dedicate large amount of parking spaces to EVs only. So in order to get more dedicated spaces it will be much easier to open a second location. Example 101 / 156 intersection - can support 101 south and Monterey weekend travel while providing relief for Gilroy.

Too many variables. Does the business have high voltage power already? What is its rate schedule? How many years are you amortizing the cost over? Who provides the SC interface/connection HW and SW?

Just wondered what a single charge cost would be for the electric - not infrastructure.

1/2 hr = 45 kWh
@ $0.10 per kWh = $4.50
@ $0.36 per kWh = $16.20

full charge lets say 100 kWh ( including losses ) then it would be $10 and $36.

Brian - according to one-on-one discussion with SC chief engineer at launch event. #2 is 50%. That is why if you arrive with a higher starting charge, it cuts off charging quicker, and you gain less.

Kleist - twin mirror sites is a very cool idea. By being spatially diverse, their utility to users is actually higher. You get more options to meet your need. If you've got a good remaining charge, you take the site 25 miles farther. If you're running on fumes, you take the closer one.

Although this requires more permits, it actually helps minimize the max grid feed requirements at each location.

Compound Benefits

One point to explain further - each of these improvements compounds to increase utility.

For example, if you ask "how many miles can I add in 10 min" here is the differential effect:


250 miles rated range, current max charge rate is 0.5 x 250 / 30 min = 4 miles a minute currently.

At 10 min rate, you get 12 miles per minute.

Case A. Currently Spec: 40 miles in 10 min.

Case B: 10 min / 70% Spec: 125 miles in 10 min. A huge improvement.

Now compare max gain per stop. If you arrive empty, and fill until cutoff is reached:

Case C: current spec - 125 miles in 30 min.

Case D: 10/70 spec - 175 miles in 15 min.

This major improvement illustrates the compound effects.

Case E: current spec - arrive 20% full, max gain is 75 miles in 19 min

Case F: 10/70 spec: arrive 20% full, max gain is 125 miles 10 min.

So each improvement really adds up. All of this narrows the fill time gap with gas.

So here's my updated shot with an extra metric:

1. 10 min

2. 70%

3. 100 miles

4. 175 miles max gain in 15 min

I'd like to suggest that there will be a hint revealed about using the large 85kWh packs to support additional utility 'demand charges' during peak hours. Perhaps the 'vehicle-to-grid, V2G' model will be supported better by this approach, during high demand times (weekday afternoons in July, when industrial loads plus A/C are peaking). Later, when 'spent' packs are turned in for replacement, the duty cycle for such peak support will still function, whereas placement in a car would no longer be viable. (Cars need 'deep discharge' capabilty, but grid level support would only be a 'float service'.) Financial incentives would be established for drivers of capable cars to benefit handsomely. There is a book and website that discusses this called by Len Beck.

Meanwhile, TM's model is evolving. About 1/2 of my 8000 miles to date have been long distance trips (>300 miles one-way). Doing so requires planning and contingencies, as others have stated. But it is doable today, and very satisfying.

Another way to look at is the flexibility of the network.

When the max gain number is much higher than the SC spacing, the network is far more robust.

Today: 125 miles max gain (quick stop) vs. 150 mile spacing.

If it steps up to 10/70: 175 miles max gain vs. 100 mile spacing.

Expressed as an index of flexibility:

0.83 today vs. 1.75 with wishlist spec.

That'd double the flexibility of the network to meet your travel needs.

Ron - the whole planning dimension gets much easier as the flexibility index goes up.

More options for where to stop, and less time spent stopping.

Many solutions to these multidimensional variables, but pretty confident Elon and team are intelligently optimizing overall system utility.

Given the constraints, will be interesting to see what they came up with as the new sweet spot.

Ron - there is already evidence suggesting that local buffer battery packs will be part of the new SC. That's how they'll get higher than 1.2C of today

Batteries in the SC will let them go to 3 or 4 C if the thermal management can handle it. We'll find out soon.

Crowdsourced average so far:

1. 19 min

2. 71%

3. 118 miles

1. 10 min

2. 70%

3. 120miles

1. 20
2. 50%
3. 130 miles

Latest crowdsourced average:

1. 17 min

2. 68%

3. 120 miles

"...running on fumes, you take the closer one."
And on the map color code the SC locations: green >= 2 stalls open, yellow = 1 stall, red = all stalls are taken.

Keister - yeah that app can do a least cost analysis in the cloud based on knowledge of all nearby users route demands. Navigation can basically work this all out for the user group so you don't have to guess. Kind of like TCAS for pilots. TM will get there in time and it will be sweet.

Sorry Kleist, autocorrect seems have its own aims.

1. 20 min
2. 70%
3. 130 miles

However, to me the most important metric is the construction schedule. According the map presented at last fall's announcement, TM expected something like 13 stations in California by the end of 2013, plus there was some mention of Nevada and Oregon. So how many stations nationwide do you expect to be in service by the end of this year.

My guess: 25.

DouglasR - yes that build rate does matter too. I suppose you could express that as SuperChargers per month worldwide.

I thinks it's about 2 a month now, and I bet that will go up to 5 a month by next year.

My guess.

1. 23 min

2. 75%

3. 100 mi.

I am guessing that the announcement will include 25+ locations open to the public by the end of June, possibly end of May.

86 was the original map by end of 2014... so that is 80 more in 8 quarters or 10 per quarter. Two quarters are gone so I would expect about 20 to be on plan.
Question is where will they be? My guess would be up and down the coasts and some in TX.
For one path to connect the coasts he needs about 25 SC... I think now is too early, but I am sure Elon can't wait to get that done. Even end of 2013 connecting the coasts would make for great publicity.

Is that 86 locations? (or chargers)
And do both Milford stations count as one location?

Locations, Milford = 1. You shouldn't take 86 too serious, maybe 100 needed to cover US... 10 per quarter is just a rough estimate.

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