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best price projections

Based on an Elon's interview with cnbc (see link below), the best guess is the model x will range from 60k to 85k (after 7k incentive if it still exists). So the 60k would be for a no frills 60kWh. Following the pricing of the model S, then the 85kWh would cost 70k and the performance 85kWh would cost 80k. To get to 85k I believe that this is the extra cost of the second engine for AWD. So for the AWD versions,the cost would be 65k, 75k for the non performance models. I imagine all these prices go up as you add paint, tech, high quality audio, etc just like the S. The two things I can see throwing these projections one way or another is the loss of the 7k incentive and/or the improvement/cost ratio as batteries improve. Also note the interview below gives us range of expectations of 220-270 miles per charge.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46332448

http://www.teslamotors.com/modelx

**********RWD l AWD l AWD Performance
---------------------------------------

60 kWh l 60K l 65K l N/A

----------------------------------------

85 kWh l 70K l 75K l 85K

(I made a clumsy chart with the less than friendly forum tools. I hope all are confused if they were not already)

From a cost perspective, I don't see how it's possible to produce a 60kWh Model X for the same price as a 60kWh Model S. The base Model X:

  1. Is larger and heavier, therefore requiring more structural and frame metal and more interior carpeting and liners;
  2. Seats 7, requiring an additional 2 seats. Tesla's charging $1,500 for the extra jumpseats in the Model S; real seats likely cost more.
  3. Has fancy falcon doors: these must cost at least as much as the panoramic roof of the S, which costs $1,500;
  4. Has a smaller target production run, so fixed costs like tooling need to be spread over fewer vehicles.

My guess is pre-tax prices will be:

  • Base 60kWh: $69,900
  • Base 85kWh: $79,900
  • 4WD: $10k option
  • Performance 4Wd: $8k above the 85kWh 4WD

The base is only $3k above the Model S base, which probably doesn't give quite the same margin, but will keep the first digit below heart-attack levels.

My price projections are based on an interview cnbc. Click the link in the first post and go to about 3:24. Here is where the 60-85k range comes from. Over and over again Musk has said the price between the model s and x would be comparable. Think of it like a computer or iPhone update. As the tech evolves and gets more powerful, the price often stays the same or even gets lower.

I'm betting economies of scale will contribute more and drive the starting price to much closer to $50K after federal rebate while retaining their 25% margin.

"Comparable" means that a 60kWh Model S and a 60kWh Model X are about the same price: $67.4k list. The $50k Model S is a 40kWh pack, which isn't available on the Model X.

DD, I don't buy into the idea that Tesla is going to slash the Model S prices by $10k in a year -- which they'd have to do if they priced they set the 60kWh Model X base price near $57k. That sort of margin compression would kill the company's economics.

It makes sense that the Model S 60kWh car will cost about the same as the X base model. By the time the car comes out the batteries will be old tech.

The X will have options that will drive up the price quick. The fancy doors might even be an option. I think the average sail price will be in the 80k for the 60 kWh.

As a side note. I think the model S should be cheaper in a few years or at least have a more advanced battery.

Sudre if the x base becomes the same as the s 60kWh is now, then the base price will be 60k after tax breaks. How do we get from 60k to an average 80k? Do you really think the average customer will pay 20k in extras?

In two years Tesla might be hitting there limit on that tax break not to mention if the election goes conservative this year that tax break will be gone to cover budget constraints.

The base Model S is 50k. I am spending 70k with options. The X will follow those same line for the average buyer who wants this vehicle. Most people don't want a skateboard with a box on top. They want paint and sound and fancy wheels and a special roof mount for skis.... all extra.

which battery pack are going with for the s?

@mvbf: Tesla collects the pre-tax-break price, i.e. about $60k for the Model S 40kWh pack, etc.

I think $80k per Model X average is pretty good, or even conservatively low. As I noted above, I think the base price for the 85kWh Model X will be $80k, just a touch above the 85kWh price for the Model S. I think the AWD 60kWh Model X will be $80k. Costs move up from there.

Robert, I am going to agree to disagree at this point. Both are guesses after all. My logic is based on Musk agreeing on video that the model x would cost between 60k and 85k and then filling in the gaps with the configurations the site says will be offered. I get the pre-tax-break thing and never disagreed that the pre tax cost is about 7.5k more as it is with the model s.

Where I guess differently is that there will be no extra 3k for falcon doors, mass of vehicle, etc because that will be offset by the same battery packs costing less in 2 years. The other place I guess differently is the cost of AWD. I guess 5k and you guess 10k. Personally if there is no tax break in 2 years and the awd cost is10k making the 65kWh AWD cost at least 77.5k before all the other extras, I might have to reconsider my purchase. It is back to waiting patiently and seeing what happens.

Sudre_ | February 11, 2012
...
I think the average sail price will be in the 80k for the 60 kWh

Why would the X need a sail when it's got wings?

;)
;p

At the risk of bringing in politics to the conversation, I wonder how much the final price to purchaser of the model x will be dependent on the outcome of the presidential election. Obama preposes a 10k point of sale rebate while others prepose getting rid of the tax break all together:

http://green.autoblog.com/2012/02/15/obamas-new-energy-policy-calls-for-...

Tesla's dependency on the will of politics for its final price is one of its greatest weaknesses in my opinion. It is one reason I have not invested in the company despite the amazing smarts and results Tesla has achieved.

Politics will be politics. Extremes are not realistic expectations. Odds are the EV incentive will remain unchanged.

Anyway, I may be naive, but I put great value on the smarts, results and the relentless plan. I like to think that superior products based on a sound plan will be successful, combined with the continued staggering levels of the seemingly insurmountable inertia of the established automakers. Ergo, I have some TSLA stock.

I want to support them in some way, since I don't have a place to plug a car in at night, and to be honest, I probably can't reasonably afford the current products, anyway. No gas and minimal maintenance notwithstanding, the up-front costs are daunting. Being single, no kids, and renting leaves me with an overall effective 29% tax bill (Federal income tax + Social Security tax+ Medicare/Medicaid tax + VA state income tax). No write-offs, no dependents, no child credits, no mortgage interest deductions...nothing other than the income tax-free 401(k) and medical FSA contributions.

Speaking of which, I hope that, if Obama doesn't get the $10k, then I hope he would be able to get his acknowledged back-up plan to make the $7.5k as a point-of-sale rebate, like the cash-for-clunkers program did. EV folks have been complaining about that for years. That way, you have a lower amount to finance and pay less sales taxes and property taxes as a result (actually, here in VA, I read somewhere that EVs are exempt from property taxes, but there are no sales tax incentives at this time). Of course, doing so would really cut into State funds, which are already scant. Might not be economically wise at this point to change it into a point-of-sale rebate.

Production economies will change in the background giving TM more flexibility, but here's about what I expect:

$60K Base 60KWH

$70K Base 85KWH

$10K AWD upgrade

$10K Performance upgrade ($7K for 2WD, since there's less electronics)

That way, a potential 2WD Performance would come in at less than AWD, but they might have similar 0-60 specs of 4.4 sec. If you don't do snow, 2WD Performance might make more sense (less $, more miles)

The 90K AWD Performance car might be sub 4 sec (Insane for 7 passenger SUV!)

All of this seems patterned after the Porsche Cayenne strategy, which is the current winning playbook for how to successfully tap this niche segment.

Elon agreed that 60k to 85k was a good projected price range for the model x in a video interview (see first post). If he sticks to that cost range, then here is what I would expect:

$60K Base 60KWH

$65K 60KWH with AWD

$70K Base 80KWH

$75K 85KWH with AWD

$85K Performance 85KWH with AWD

I do not think there will be a performance model without AWD. If the model x pricing structure truly stuck to the model s, then there would also be a required extra 5k of options on top of the $85K bringing the performance model to $90K. Or maybe the AWD will take the place of the wheels etc keeping it to $85K.

I am not saying I am right. I am just drawing out the logic by taking the $ range from the interview and then breaking that range down to the options on the site. I am not sure it helped, but I stuck to Mark K's format for easy comparison and clarity.

Your price schedule would be a sweet deal if they do it.

The reason I think AWD will add 10K is that the parts list is nontrivial: twice the motors, gearboxes, driveshafts. and power control electronics.

If they eventually offer the same AWD upgrade for the S, then Elon's comments would reconcile with the price points for both the S and X lines.

A separate trend is that as the technology base broadens to other makers, prices will come down overall.

Elon, during the conference call eluded to some "river card" or suprise when asked about the Model X AWD cannabilizing the Model S sales. I bet the announce an AWD version of the Model S. It will likely be the Performance version, or maybe Performance AWD.

I'm hoping they already have this car and it will be a surprise for the launch! Maybe the Signature cars will all be AWD? That would set them apart from the standard production a bit more.

AFAIK, the "river card" comment was in response to a question about new battery tech ending up in the Model S and Model X, extending range beyond 300 miles:

Patrick Archambault – Goldman Sachs

Okay. Taking a step back in terms of more of a product question, how are you thinking about sort of higher mileage vehicles in your product cadence? I think at the Detroit Auto Show you had put up a slide suggesting it would not be inconceivable to get your cost per kilowatt-hour to I want to say something like 200, if I'm remembering correctly. You’ve mentioned the next-gen and perhaps after that maybe a new Roadster, but might there be an interim demand for an S or an X with even higher mileage capabilities just given the availability of cheaper batteries?

Elon Musk

Yeah. Well, just like that phrase in Texas Hold ‘Em, like you never know what the [river card is] going to be. Well, you never know. It could be.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/370491-tesla-motors-ceo-discusses-4q2011...

I don't see a relation to AWD in this comment.

I would guess that the sales of the Model S at this stage are much more important than sales of the model S or X later. Tesla needs to prove how its desirability shown in its reservation numbers converts to its viability in its actual sales numbers now. This sets the foundation for continued strong investment and support that all future models will depend including the X. So ... yes it would make a lot of sense if it were possible to start offering the AWD for the model S now rather than later.

On the other hand, I am expecting the Model S will blow away its drivers and the public securing Tesla's future as is. These early stages are always full of gambles. So it would still make sense to hedge the bets where possible ...

Mark K, there needs to be a sweet deal somewhere in there for the model X. The model S has the advantage of a lower entry price of 50k base instead of 60k base. When the highly desirable option of AWD puts the vehicle immediately into the 70k range before options and the performance model as much as 95k (forced 5k options added like the S), the market niche for the vehicle really starts to shrink.

LP;

Elon, during the conference call eluded to some "river card" or suprise ...

It's "alluded". But I seem to recall other references to a surprise previously. Wouldn't count on it at this late date though. Doubt if there's anything major in the wings before summer. Dunno!


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