Seems like there should be a correlation between increasing calls for orders and increased production rates. May guess would be they are making 50-75 cars per month right now (given data on # of crash test cars, drivable betas, and where they are on the call list.
If we can model this going forward we can predict our individual delivery dates with more confidence, especially for those who have higher general production reservation numbers into 2013-14.
Any spread sheet jockeys want to take a try at that? If not, how some about some educated guesses!!!
Ya, let him bang around in the Model X Alpha. >8-0
I apologize if this is not the correct thread. below are the production numbers for Tesla from autonews.com
North America car and truck production by model, July and YTD
July 2012 July 2011 July % change 7 mos. 2012 7 mos. 2011 7 mos. % change
Tesla# 92 0 - 118 0 -
mbcaffe;
I can't quite follow the numbers as arranged. It turns out you can build a table here using the <pre> </pre> tag combo. Just use spaces, not the tab key to align things.
Example:
First Second Total
1 2 3
Stands for "pre-formatted".
Looks like July = 92 cars built.
YTD = 118 cars built.
% change = 0 (this does not add up ,,, there should be a big increase).
@brianh
thanks for the tip. I really did not know how to retain the format. I no longer have access to the table. In any case, it is 92 for July and 118 ytd. All of the other columns are 0 since there is lack of history from previous year. I will make sure it formatted properly next month.
mbcaffe;
If you don't like the size, it also helps to use the h1 - h6 tags:
h1 123
h2 123
h3 123
h4 123
h5 123
h6 123
The caps in H3 and H4 were created by the tags; I typed lower case.
The prev. was "naked" h-tags. This one is enclosed in pre-tags:
h1 123
h2 123
h3 123
h4 123
h5 123
h6 123
Fascinating! (Not.)
Hey, we web developers think it is ;)
Latest up from my Tesla rep: they plan to have delivered all signature cards by Nov 1. That means I get mine probably last week of October.
He also said my HPWC would ship in September so I can have it installed before delivery.
Excited!
^cards^cars^! Not a paper picture, the real CAR!
@pilotSteve
thank you for the update. I am curious for this other post from
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/its-time-build-your-model-s
Peter Spirgel | August 16, 2012
I just checked my MVPA and my estimated delivery date now says Nov 2012 - Dec 2012! When I locked in my configuration, it said Sept. 2012. I'm S620. This is not a good sign that things are on schedule or that Tesla will deliver anywhere near 5,000 cars this year.
So, ~1244 Sigs (244 SSL & 1000 S) delivered by Nov 1. That's about 11 weeks from the delivery of SSl#1 (Hi, Jason!). So a rough average of 113 cars/week.
I am Sig#353, and live 10 miles from Tesla's factory (which eases some block-shipping/delivery issues). There have been 299 Sig refusals, but we don't know what numbers they originally had. Some could have been late SSLs.
Best case: I get car 298, and get my car early September.
Worst case: I get car 597, and get my car early October.
I guess I haven't learned anything new. I'll get it... soon.
My understanding of the SSL and Signature lists are they pull from the same pool so 244SSL + 756 = 1000 US Signatures. The SSL's intermixed within the Signature reservation numbers for example: SSL1, SSL2, S3, SSL4, S5... then at some point Tesla closed the F&F (SSL) order window and all orders after that point are the normal Signatures by definition.
We saw the Signature reservation numbers climb quickly when the configure emails were going out to the SSLs first, then they dropped and climbed again when Tesla went back to contact the regular Signatures. There's no reason to believe they will not deliver in a similar order.
At #915 I'm well past the SSL folks so only the refusals will change my delivery slot.
mbcaffe | AUGUST 16, 2012
@pilotSteve
thank you for the update. I am curious for this other post from
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/its-time-build-your-model-s
Peter Spirgel | August 16, 2012
I just checked my MVPA and my estimated delivery date now says Nov 2012 - Dec 2012! When I locked in my configuration, it said Sept. 2012. I'm S620. This is not a good sign that things are on schedule or that Tesla will deliver anywhere near 5,000 cars this year.
nvjx / Aug 16 2012
I am P600 and signed my MVPA on 8/3/12. That MVPA showed a Nov 2012 delivery. Today I added Sound Studio Pkg. and had to redo the MVPA. Now I show a Nov/Dec 2012 delivery. I was assured by the Tesla advisor that my place in line had not changed and the delay in delivery is due to a slow down in production for quality control.
Beaker | August 16, 2012
My understanding of the SSL and Signature lists are they pull from the same pool so 244SSL + 756 = 1000 US Signatures. The SSL's intermixed within the Signature reservation numbers for example: SSL1, SSL2, S3, SSL4, S5... then at some point Tesla closed the F&F (SSL) order window and all orders after that point are the normal Signatures by definition.
Specifically and officially contradicted by the new addendum michiganmodels added to the "Tally" thread.
"The SSL and S designations lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence."
That is not "intermixed". That is distinct. Thus mm adds SSLs to Sigs and Ps in his estimates.
Does anybody have what are the bottlenecks in the mass production of the Model S? I do not think it is the electric motor, battery pack, drive train, or even the power control or electronics. It is probably with the tolerances of the body work. The stamping of the doors, frunk and trunk doors, and then fitting to the body. The interior could be a challenge to get the panels to fit within tolerances.
Tesla uses the same presses, stamping machines, robots to make multiple parts. Telsa bought the machines that were used to manufacture steel cars/bodies. Would have to be adapted for Al, which also needs a different kind of welding equipment and conditions.
I am just wondering if this kind of switching, especially of the dies, etc mess up the tolerances. They all have jibs and guides, and as well as the parts to be fitted.
Anybody here with auto manufacturing experience?
Elon said the body, chassis, powertrain and paint are good. It is the interior fit and finish that is not yet up to par.
My estimated time of time of delivery (August 15th) has come and gone. I was told I would be contacted 30 days prior to delivery to arrange for financing. That phone call has not yet come. I am Signature Reservation holder #99. Which means they are still at least 30 days out from delivering their 100th production car. The board told all of the brokerage houses that 500 Signatures would be delivered by September 30th.
Less than 100 by September 17, 2012.
500 by September 30th 2012. Doubtful. But I'll leave it to you all to do the math.
I think it will be a while. We are special sig #64, and although we put in our order a while ago, we haven't heard anything yet either (and we had been told we would be contacted 30 days before to set up the final financial arrangements).
The home page of the Tesla web site says AMPLIFIED we're ramping up the volume. When was this put up with a picture of the assembly line. This is the first time I have seen this. Great sign!!! Must be that most of the small finish problems have been resolved to the point that they can ramp up production. Elon said in the call that the ramp up is like flipping a switch. All those people worrying about getting 5000 by the end of the year can stop worrying. They are going to go from 50 a week to 50 a day sooner than we think.
I also noticed the home page. I was hoping for another one of those articles, like the ones George supplied that we all looked forward too. Unfortunatly, the link just goes to the old main page. No explanation.
I know he's a busy guy, but I'd love to see his weekly emails back again. Or at least a story behind the Amplified link.
Until S64 and S99 get that call it is still time to worry. They have about two weeks before I actually get worried. Who knows maybe they will get the call Monday.
Someone at Tesla might be reading this going, "OH CRAP! I forgot to call them!" :-)
JB typically writes his blogs late Monday for a Tuesday publish. Waiting with bated breath for the official run-rate.
Looks like RED is popular :-)
Sorry to hear that even S64 hasn't gotten the call yet. If you hold stock as I do, might want to unload it before September 30th comes and goes. I will be doing so if I don't get a call next week. I personally think the whole "early production release" in June was publicity stunt. I would have preferred a more honest roll-out. I mean, who really cares that 10 people got their cars when 12,000 people are still waiting (or are they??). Keep in mind that was almost 60 days ago. Once you start fudging the numbers all the numbers projected come into question.
Maybe another 30 people have their cars now (if the weekly totals can be believed). So S64 should have gotten the call by now. Their max production will be 250 a week when they are up to full capacity (2013). Even at 50 a week they will fail to hit their reduced goal (They are running out of time to hit 500 by 9/30/12).
Hey S64, let us know if you get a call this week. I will post on Friday (August 24th) one way or the other, as well.
No backup anywhere yet for the "We're ramping up the volume" claim. Could mean 1 more per week per week, or 10, or 50, or ...
@ Michael S. + 1
Michael S, have you tried to contact Tesla about the delay yet? If so, did they give you any useful information regarding the delay? You must be very frustrated.
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