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Thanks for taking the time to keep this updated. Great work.
Ditto to Early's comment - thanks!
I wanted to discuss my thoughts on the leveling off of the VIN assignment rate plot (the red dots/line). What I suspect (I do not know for sure) is that the production team was working really hard to ramp up production rates over the past several weeks. We saw the VIN assignment rate increase from (approximately) below 525 in early August to (approximately) around 660 now. If you include non-sales vehicles (e.g., loaners, demos, test mules, etc.), then you're probably looking at a weekly production rate of ~700 cars. Now that they've achieved that (assuming that's the case), and ahead of schedule (800 cars/week wasn't supposed to happen until next year, IIRC), the push to increase the line's production rate has stopped, and they are now maintaining a relatively steady (and healthy) production rate. If that's the case, we should see those red dots continue to move laterally in the 650-675 range for some period of time...at least weeks, maybe months...I'm not sure.
A couple of caveats:
1) It's certainly possible that the recent price hikes had too much of a demand-dampening effect and that actual sales have stopped increasing and have leveled off. This would be an alternate explanation for those red dots no longer trending upward (if, in fact, that's what's happening). Based on the media reports and Musk's main concern being production ramp-up, not sales, I think this is an unlikely scenario. But it's possible.
2) These are NOT "production" rates....they are merely VIN assignment rates. At best, that's a noisy leading indicator of production. So, take these numbers with a grain of salt...no, a whole salt lick.
3) Recently, we've had several days with 1 or no VINs reported. This makes for VERY noisy short-term projections (i.e., the 1-week numbers are likely off by a large margin).
I just noticed that it was there. So it may be off by a few days.
@cfOH You are right, these are not production nor delivery numbers. So I repeat my question, wouldn't it be nice to add the effective deliveries and delivery dates per VIN in this graph. This will tell us so much more about sales related to production. Regards. Herman
Why do you want to give the game away? Give Elone some privacy so that he can achieve more. Elone is a reasonable man, let him do his best by not putting too much pressure on him. He knows about this site as you surely know. It is on his computer! So it is logical to assume that he wants us to know that much and not more. Let us help Elone.
Best regards from Cairo Egypt.
Why should it be kept secret? The auto industry in the USA and other parts of the world operate with more disclosure. At the beginning of each month, they report sales figures. Tesla is operating differently. They tell employees and factory tour visitors how many cars are produced via a whiteboard on display. But they only announce sales every three months on the earnings call. This has caused the implication that the company is a technical company and not automotive. This reporting by Craig helps dispel myths and beings forward a little more transparency which some feel Tesla should be more forthcoming with monthly.
20. sept 2013
Thanks for keeping this going Craig!
One suggestion I just thought of could be to also keep track of region of the order when specified (North America, Europe, Asia), perhaps through an extra column, colour coding or something else.
Watching the trends in your previous thread, it almost seems to me Tesla is filling in production capacity by releasing European order VINs recently. As the volume in EU and Asia ramps up (particularly as Elon mentioned Q3 and Q4 would be when they discuss China a lot more) this may be a useful metric on its own.
Probably 19 sep 2013, not sure.
Looking at the recent postings, most of the VIN# are headed for EU
Is it safe to assume that the factory has been running the 25% US / 75% EU production mix?
So we can reasonably deduce that Q3 will contain much higher margin for signature, P/P+/S85 EU delivery?
On a similar note...
How many signature Model S in U.S./Europe and how many Signature Model X in U.S./Europe?
Got my Vin today September 20 th.
I am from Europe , Austria
Herman: Delivery dates are not useful because they're often greatly affected by owners' availability, location, etc. The car might be ready on 10/1, but the customer can't take delivery until 10/12. That 11-day difference would throw off our estimates, or at least make them noisier. VIN assignments, however, are completely controlled by Tesla and indicate a verified order that Tesla has at least agreed to make. To me, that's a good indicator of realized demand.
cfOH - The loaners and test cars have vins assigned to them as well even though they don't get reported here. So when we see owner vin reports we have to assume that loaners and test cars were also part of that production.
@JZ13: Yep, absolutely, which is why I presume that deliveries will be some percentage lower than VIN assignment. What that percentage is, I'm not sure...I don't have enough good delivery data to estimate.
bump. More VINs please.
Loaners and test cars eventually get sold. So looking at differences in VINs, it's probably a wash. When new stores and service centers open, they'll need to build up a fleet, but later they will simply sell and replace them, netting one sale per VIN.
Long term you are right, but quarterly we have to count them out.
As an investor, I would prefer Tesla to issue monthly sales reports as is customary for the industry. They have numbers they can be proud of. More importantly it will help generate consumer awareness and support investor confidence.
Currently investors are quite polarized regarding the stock. Ambiguity regarding monthly sales fuels competing visions of how well the company is doing. Authoritative sales numbers would help both longs and shorts make better informed decisions. I think it could lead to a reduction in short interest in the stock and possibly reduce volatility.
How many test cars per store and loaners per service center? If we knew, we could easily estimate incremental fleet based on number of new stores and centers opened in a quarter. Additionally, it would be nice to know quickly the service fleet is turned over.
@CfOH....I think the weekly spike and leveling of sales is due to Tesla ramping up to clear up the overseas sales backlog.....once that backlog more or less is cleared I believe a leveling off at lower clip will result...........
_"Currently investors are quite polarized regarding the stock."_
The behavior around TSLA is yet another example of why I am increasingly convinced that shorting stocks should be illegal. It motivates people to undermine a company when they really would have no other motivation to do so. The only people who should be rooting against Tesla's success are employees of established car makers, and that's not enough to generate the kind of public posts and FUD like we see on Seeking Alpha, Market Watch, and other such "contributor-content" websites. If you want to bet against a company, buy the stock and products of its competitors; otherwise, shut up. I really loathe financial instruments that motivate bad/destructive behavior.
I agree with you 100% cfOH
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