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Heard a little rumor a press release on Q4 numbers is coming out soon... Did anyone else hear this?

lolachampcar -- Trying shamelessly to figure that out in this thread...

The sigs and canadian 2000s are part of the continuous 1-3200 vin sequence and part of the cars delivered so far, so that works out fine. However, there is one VIN gap from the last US sig (around vin 1100 or so) until the first customer production (around 1260) that included the marketing cars. And of course there will be a few scrapped VINs, but that shouldn't matter much.

I paid for VIN 3235 on 12/31, it got on the truck on 12/31, and I received it yesterday. I assume they counted it for 2012 numbers.

Wait a minute. Tell me Vin #s are not the number of cars produced.
How the hell could 3235 be delivered 12/31 and they are telling me my car (#11,484) will be delivered by the end of Jan? What am I missing?

Shannon -
VIN # is the order of cars built, but your reservation sequence # (11,484) is not your VIN - you will be assigned a VIN when your car starts production and it will be a much lower number.

VIN #s are (within some degree of approximation) the number of cars produced. As to why you are getting your car, there are a number of reasons. First you are ahead of most 60's, all 40's and all red or standard suspension cars. Then there are people who delayed finalizing or canceled their orders. Finally, your car seems to be unusually early, given the mystery of Tesla production sequence and the myth of building in strict res # order.

So, I'll try some revenue #s now.

The magic number comes out to be 333M (440M to beat - 107M Q1-3).
Say, TM gets 13M revenue from Toyota & MB for the quarter (pure assumption to make numbers easy).

So, to beat the revenue quarter, TM must have sold 3200 cars at 100000 a piece. Which to me is a bit too far. Best case scenario I can see is this: 2900*95000 = 275.5M.

275.5+13+107 = ~395M. And, do we count the 5K new reservation deposits as revenue? If so, Add ~20M and you get somewhere in the ballpark. Any other obvious revenues to add?

$900 delivery charge per vehicle, ZEV credits ($?), could make up the difference to 400m...

Reservations are a current liability, but will affect operational cash flow in positive way... maybe between 5m - 20m in net positive res in flow for the year... this could help offset operational cash outflows.

I think a small beat will be reported with very good forecast for Q1 = TSLA @ $40 !

Vin 3059 payed with a wire on 12/31. My DS said it was good for both of us. I get the 2012 tax credit and Tesla gets the sale and revenue. I believe it the exchange of $$ that indicates sale and ownership.

News articles starting to "report" estimates of 3k MSs sold in in 2012...

Forgot to mention they're quoting forum posters as sources...

Did Elon just say Tesla didn't turn a profit in Q4?

@jk2014, I recall Elon saying that they turned to cash-positive in Q4.

...which might not be result of entire Q4 (need edit).

AP article tonight quoted Elon saying he's looking for a profitable quarter later this year. I take this to mean Q4 might not have turned a profit. Hard to swallow if they made 290m+ and spent it all. Means they will have to dip heavy into cash to cover losses for the year and pisses me off because all the naysayers said that would happen. I hope I'm readying too much into it.

That is presumptuous. It could well mean they will have to dip lightly into cash.
As long as they don't miss a payment on their loan the naysayers are wrong.

They raised about 427m in cash this year, looking at net loss of nearly 300m. By what Elon has stated tonight, they won't be profitable for a while. Will have to dip deeper earlier, suggesting another offering sooner. Those critics will jump all over this as validation. Just hope I'm wrong and the shorts don't have field day this month as speculation runs rampant.

Tesla needs to make a positive statement very soon. The official silence on numbers is becoming painful.

Nobody (not even Tesla) expected them to be profitable last quarter. However, if they are cash flow positive they are no longer dipping into cash to cover losses (they are taking in more money than they are spending). Reservation income doesn't count towards profits, but it's still money the company can use.

And I really don't understand this statement: "The official silence on numbers is becoming painful."

Earnings are Feb 11th. If they planned to release numbers earlier they would have set an earlier earnings date. The whole point of setting an earnings date is so you know when they will tell you the numbers. Chill out and wait. You complain about the shorts, but you really sound like one yourself.

I think there might be some confusion about profitability and cash flow break even here. Throughout 2011 and 2012 Tesla spent heavily on capital equipment getting manufacturing line ready. That is one reason they burned through cash. But those big capital expenses are behind them now, and it sounds like tesla is actually putting cash into the bank now. Ie they are cash break even or better now that they are selling cars quickly. However all that capital expense including all the r&d get amortized over many many years and is charged against profit on their official earnings. So that is why they won't be profitable for a while yet.

Greg-- if you are making more money than spending, you're turning a profit. The question is how much money was tesla in the hole by the end of 2012? If Q4 was break even, they would end up being 306m loss in operations, as well as expected 240m in capital expenditure. Total approx. 546m in the hole, with 427 in cash to cover it. Yes, there are some accounting adjustments like net res payment, depreciation, inventory, accounts payable,etc... However, this wont offset outflows enough to sustain further losses into 2013 without eating away most of the cash.. Elon's statement comes off as they will have to continue to dip into cash each quarter for a while before they can cover all costs safely. If they end up with less than 200m going into Q1, with anticipated losses for a few more quarters, people are going to get worrisome about being able to pay off the 50m loan payments starting in June, as well the ability to cover reservation cancelations on a large scale safely. This would put pressure on tesla to have another offering sooner then expected(if ever expected)... The need for cash is what the naysayers are pounding on. I hate that this might be an opportunity for them to continue the negative narrative.

Prime opportunity for Tesla to come out with some amazing news. Give some assurance to those of us out there things are okay.

Just to add, the delivery problems, as well as the possible sudden change in how they recognize revenue (not on delivery to customer, but on hand off of car to third party like UPS), etc... will create further negative speculation until Feb 11. Some sort of positive official tesla news or blog will help counter what is surely to come in the following days and weeks.

"Yes, there are some accounting adjustments like net res payment, depreciation, inventory, accounts payable,etc... However, this wont offset outflows enough to sustain further losses into 2013 without eating away most of the cash."

Cash flow positive means exactly that accounting adjustments like net res payment, depreciation, inventory, accounts payable,etc. are enough prevent any eating away of cash on hand, and the only reason that they don't have a profit is due to accounting adjustments.

One last thing Greg... I want to wait till feb 11. I would prefer it, but when Elon makes statements on profitability and production rates, as well as give an outlook for the year to come after award presentation, he's not waiting himself. Partial information that fuels the negative narative and affects investor and public perception. Best either to say nothing or come out with own official statement to explain the situation.

Not sure if someone mentioned this before, but Musk said that they would be profitable after 8000 cars delivered. They should reach that by the end of this quarter.

@Tinj, Yes. I believe Elon said they wopuld break even with an annual production rate of 8000. He was not just addressing startup, but long term continuing operations as well. I believe he was trying to get the analysts off the 20000 annual figure as a make-it or break-it figure for Tesla's survival. It is actually much less than that- 8000.

jk2014:

Respectfully to you... There has been NO change in how they recognize revenue for "sold" cars or reservations.
Only your understanding of the definition of "delivery" has changed (IMO)
Basically a car is cobsidered sold when its tendered to the transport carrier
I've worked in ecommerce and I can tell you this is exactly how it works. Retailers recognize shipped sales when they tender packages to carriers (such as FedEx, UPS, USPS)

It's a big deal when companies don't follow standard accounting practices and I certainly strongly feel that TM has followed standard practices.

Honesty and clarity are always the best policy and in this case you'd have a big problem if the customer sent the 100k "package" back to Tesla if not what they ordered. Tesla SEC docs state "upon delivery" rev rec happens, does not state upon delivery to third party transport. I know there is room for interpretation, but typically a customer inspect the car before signing off on receiving it. This is the car buyer's expectation. If not Tesla's, then it must be clear in writing.

Anyway, Tesla's different. I think in being different gotta keep the transparency on things like this solid from the start. We all are risking a lot on this big idea. Desperately want it to succeed, but gotta be hard nosed on these issues to ensure they deliver on its promise.

Anyone doesn't have at least 5 years horizon, shouldn't really be in any stock, let alone TM.

TM could really well trade back to $20 base on a lot of factors.

Take a look Apple, it lost 25% of value in the last few months and they are still selling everything like hotcakes.

Q4 will not move the stock upward if that's what you are waiting for. All the delivery information already known, as well as production rate. There isn't anything new to unveil in Q4.


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