Forums

Join The Community
RegisterLogin

What caused TSLA stock to go up/down today?

Hoping this thread might pick up steam as TSLA stock goes through some amazing intra-day and open/closing swings due to the large short interest (I'm assuming).

For instance: Yesterday the stock dipped really low at closing so I bought. Today it jumped back up and I sold for a healthy profit.

Why did the stock dip yesterday and then rise so much today? I didn't see any news that would justify it.

*At 100,000 cars a year

GenIIIbuyer,
Your name is exactly why I have tesla stock. Since the S has tapped me out, I'm hoping I can gain enough with the stock to get my wife a GenIII to replace her aging car.
Only thing bummin me out now is the delay of the X. Was hoping to get GenIII by 2015...
Stock should only be more powerful as time goes by, but her car isn't aging the same way.

CnJsSigP,

Glad you like the name! Surprised it wasn't taken already. I also am long the stock. I don't recall having ever seen a company in its infancy that is operating from a best in class market position in such a large market.

Aren't even many blogs that follow the company yet. What do you think of my earnings estimate for Q1.. http://tesla-insider.com/2013/03/q1-2013-earnings-estimate/

I think Q1 will definitely be profitable due to 85kWh and 60kWh mix. Q2 may be slight lose due to 40kWh deliveries.

GenIII was never due by 2015. No statement delaying it beyond 2016 has been issued.

Sorry GenlllBuyer, Maybe I'm not getting it but, 16% gross margin would only amount to about 69 million in profit, not 119 million... I also would like to add that the gross margin will most likely be around 14% based off of my surveys the average car cost is about 92k with options (not including 40kwh) also they would not lose anymore money in Q2 because of producing 40kwhs... Their have also been reports of 475 cars per week now, so I would no consider 4500 conservitive and I would expect now 5700 produced and 5100 delivered which brings the revenue up a lot, and I expect a either a Non- gaap pprofit of 10cents of a Gaap profit of up to 5 cents. Just a couple estimates

Cprenzl, add $50 M in ZEV credits to $69 M to get total of $ 119 M

When do u guys expect Tesla to get to the 25%margin
They want. Any thoughts?

+1 vgrinshpun, add $50 M in ZEV credits to $69 M to get total of $ 119 M

cprenzl, I agree that the 4,500 deliveries is looking conservative, I just went with the guidance given on the Q4 call. If ZEV credit pricing holds up more than I anticipated and 5100 are delivered there is a chance for an upside surprise close to $0.40. That would be a best case scenario for the quarter though. Would love to see the short's reaction to that headline..

cprenzl, And I really appreciate the feedback, thanks!

chadrchristensen79, if they don't try to go over 500 cars/week this year then I think Q4 2013. However, if the reservation book is high enough later in the year I think they'll make another production increase push that could delay reaching the 25% gross margins in 2013.

Some good information in this article:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1296941-tesla-still-accelerating-hard?so...

"Life is about to get a lot worse for the shorts for other reasons. A reader alerted me to a little cited article in the Westfield Republican, where Tesla's supplier Jamestown Plastics announced that it is currently fabricating and shipping 500 units per week. Jamestown Plastics make the liner for the Model S's forward trunk, or 'frunk'... and last time I checked there's only one of those per car."

And:

"500 units/wk is 26,000 units/yr, and that is some bad news if you're short Tesla. Worse news is that, come Autumn, Jamestown is expecting deliveries to increase to 650/week; or 33,800/year."

Latest short interest figures will be released late March 26th. Probably at a new all time high. Looks like that short squeeze is getting closer.

I can't believe I am the first to this tread today.

Up $5.00 in the first hour and still climbing. 30,000,000 shares still short that need to be covered. Should be an interesting week, especially if Elon's announcement tomorrow is some thing that adds to the mix.

We are longs on TSLA and we know this is just the beginning. We will buy TSLA when it dips and hold it when days like today.

I think we all know why it went up today!

http://tesla-insider.com/2013/04/teslas-first-profitable-quarter/

As a TSLA long, I may not have to wait for the Gen 3 :)

30M shares short, 3M shares traded so far today and stock up 18%.

*sigh* really wishing I'd had the option to buy more stock back when I did. Ah well, I'm still up 2k.

So this is what a short squeeze looks like? Thing of beauty...

Wait for Tuesday... This is probably a one two punch.

i had a big smile today, rushed to the computer to SELLLLLLL :)

@shop couldn't agree more: Thing of beauty!

With whom do you guys trasde with ? my site (qtrade.ca) charge me $19 commission ouch !

Is this the "tsunami of pain" for the shorts or is that going to be delivered later?

Captain

Tsunamis frequently come in multiple waves. This is just wave one.
How many more?, not sure.

New short interest released 3/26/2013:

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest#.UVmpr7_4DRo

32,316,654 a new high.

Contrast to this listing of top 10 institutional shareholders of Tesla stock with combined holdings of over 40 million shares:

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/will-teslas-sales-numbers-impress-the...

Institutional shareholders are usually strong hands, and long term holders. If the aforementioned don't sell their holdings, who will the shorts by back their 32 million shares from? And at what price?

"i had a big smile today, rushed to the computer to SELLLLLLL :)"

Kilmats, I understand the smile, but not the rush to sell.

I wonder if this is the big news that Elon had delayed until Tuesday. Maybe it came a day early? I hope not, I hope there is more good news tomorrow.

Elon tweeted that this was not the news he was talking about. He also stated that Tuesday's news is arguably more important. Let's hope the momentum continues.

Shorts got kicked IN THE SHORTS today.....
It will get worse for them as the covering gets more painful.
I am long on TSLA with a large interest...
There is a story to tell here which is only starting....
I sold Apple way too early.
Not missing his one

Bueller? (silence)

Bueller? (silence)

J. Peterson? (silence)

J. Peterson? (silence)

@GoTeslaChicago

The rush to sell is because i like riding the wave, sell on top of it and buy again when its low. makes more $$ that way :)

if you got a better way let me know

No one, not the best traders can time the market as there are too many variables and psychology of the trade plays an even bigger part of this unknown. Good luck riding the wave, but, many times, the wave just gets bigger and your point of entry gets too expensive?

Kilimats,

Selling at a high point, and buying a dip can be good. I did it myself the day before the last earnings report, and bought back in 15% lower after 4 days. (see my post from that time)

However...

Good news like we just had, can be a precursor of more to come. What if the shorts are trapped by the move higher, and as of the moment, too paralyzed to act? It may take several more days/weeks of pain, before they throw in the towel enmass.

It could make todays higher opening price the low of the move, not the high.

One way I decide a trade is to ask my self will I feel worse if I sell and the stock keeps going up and I lose my position, or will I feel worse if I don't sell and the stock has a temporary dip that I miss out on. In this case the chance of selling and losing my Tesla position is the worse risk (for me).

What's the deal from Cory Johnson of Bloomberg News? Nothing but negative on today's news of Q1 profitability. I mean every segment he appears on...


X Deutschland Site Besuchen