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Current Production Run Rate

Seems like there should be a correlation between increasing calls for orders and increased production rates. May guess would be they are making 50-75 cars per month right now (given data on # of crash test cars, drivable betas, and where they are on the call list.

If we can model this going forward we can predict our individual delivery dates with more confidence, especially for those who have higher general production reservation numbers into 2013-14.

Any spread sheet jockeys want to take a try at that? If not, how some about some educated guesses!!!

The silence is deafening …. unless we get a production numbers blog update and/or regular Sig. delivery date postings in the 100’s we have to assume they are falling behind. I think the early delivery was not a deliberate “stunt” but unforeseen bottlenecks may have occurred. It is a miracle they have come so far so fast. Elon is at his best when things go bad so I have no doubt he will get past this and deliver the car we have all been waiting for … only with a little more waiting :(

S 64 hasn't been contacted, but remember S 64 comes 250 cars behind SS 1. The Founder's series is first (39 of those?), then the special sigs (approx 250), then the regular sigs (1100 or so). So my regular sig 564 is actually car number 39+250+564 = 853.

The wait is painful, like Christmas as a kid. But I'd rather have a perfect car.

Also, how does one go about checking the MVPA? Isn't it set on the paperwork?

Nothing scary to me here.

You can think of the first handful of deliveries as a QA run.

Every little detail (not only how it all works, but also how it looks and feels to the touch) ... If you really care about making a great product experience, you have to obsess over these details and take the time to get it right.

It is much wiser to hold back the production rate and resolve these detail issues at the tooling and process level, rather than brute-forcing corrections on the line.

In essence, if you take the time to understand why things deviate from goal and revise the process itself, once revised, it slips together smoothly and requires very little QA struggle for a consistently good result.

And at that point, it really is like throwing a switch. You can produce a large number very quickly because you've really nailed the process. 250 a week is a modest number once the process is tuned.

This is the right strategy for TM to focus its intellectual energy - not on triage for problems from rushing it out.

If that means some brief lags in fall deliveries, so be it. For both buyers and stockholders, this is clearly the wisest path.

For cashflow reasons TM is already incentivized to move expeditiously, so browbeating them will not accelerate anything. Once you see they've flipped the switch, you won't have to wait long at all.

Summary: Don't watch the pot and get frustrated. Once it starts to boil, dinner is served quickly.

When you've got THE killer product, you don't risk blowing it on details. TM's very wise to have their priorities straight. Their decision-making screams A-team intelligence and values.

That said, like all the rest of us, well yes, I too want the thing yesterday. Try staying off the forum cold turkey for two weeks. It was good therapy for me.

@Mark K...++++1....though don't think I could give up forum for 2 weeks...that is my therapy! :)

@Mark K | MAY 1, 2012

I share most of your sentiments except the investor point…

I think another production slip will have a 10-15% short term impact on the stock until the ramp is back on target (about 2-3 months????).

@Mark K

BRAVO! As an engineer in a previous professional life, I couldn't agree more! Everybody just needs to chill and let the "A" Team at TM do their job. Everybody will be rewarded in the end...

Hey, if we get another dip cause wall street doesn't have a time horizon past next week, all it does is present another buy opportunity... And you get "the best" car in the world, not just a good one.

Also, kudos to those taken the early ones and passin back feedback to TM. Also an excellent strategy from an early QA point, limited audience that is passionate, educated on the product and in small enough numbers to be able to communicate with in a meaningful way.

Don't know if I could not look at the forum for 2 weeks though :) !

So I just reserved yesterday . . . yes I know a bit late in the game.

I am hoping to get this car by May next year. You guys think this is a realistic timeline?

@Brian.C - given the current factory production rates, I'd say that's very optimistic...

Mark K -- Try staying off the forum cold turkey for two weeks. It was good therapy for me.

Woah! Twooo weeks? (Reference: Earth Girls Are Easy).

Hey BrianC. Congratulations. By next May, they will be pumping out almost 1,700 cars per month. So if not May, then it certainly could not be far behind. I guess the best rule of thumb you could use is perhaps the first 5000 GP numbers cleared by the end of January. Then if we take 20K/annum as an assumption, 1,670 cars per month after that. There will be a slight number more reservation numbers used than cars delivered, as some folks my reserve then cancel later. But that calculation might be a decent guess.

I would say August 2013 would sound about right, for you to get your car.

Alright; thanks for your input and thoughts!

UPDATE: Founder's cars aparently all delivered. S-001 confirmed delivered 8/11/12. Review for it on another thread.

@MarkK;
Good analysis.

Another way to look at it: considering the comparatively tiny weekly volumes scheduled for July/Aug. anyway, picking up any slack there later amounts to a couple of days full bore production.

My Sig Reg is #494, & I'm anticipating late Sept 2012 delivery, but have not yet received my 30 notice.
Anyone know what the latest reg# delivered was, and what the delivery day was??
A mark on the wall would be a reasonable progress forecaster.
Ya, I know the production rate is increasing as we go!
What are your forecast delivery date thoughts & assumptions for my delivery??

Mark K +1, thank you very much! I felt the urge to add something with a very similar intent to this thread, but I couldn't put it in words well enough. Your post really nailed it for me.

This has to be avoided by all means.

I don't see what happened to Karma happening to TM. So much fewer moving parts, no ICE compacted tighter then a size 10 foot in a size 8 shoe and just too many parts that move and heat up and and and...

Fire hazard isn't a concern for TM I don't believe, but I also believe they need to hit it out of the park with the Model S, or the would otherwise most certainly stand for sayounara* for Tesla Motors.

* Please pardon my poor phonetic spelling of the Japanese language.

EDIT: ... or the "S" would otherwise...

BYT, I admit that my post was a bit choppy. I wasn't so much referring to the fire event, my emphasis is on the "Recall" part.

Yes, avoided by all means.

Considering the limited number on the road, two burned is not a good stat. I think its a fundamentaly flawed design which makes dealing with these issues challenging for their team.

Put my reservation in two weeks ago and after reading all the positive press about the S, I am even more stoked on getting the car. Even bought the stock! I am thinking next May for a delivery. Hopefully will have two great results (car and stock) to look forward to.

@Stgwbrown@aol.com, welcome to the Tesla extended family then... ;)

"VPLACE | AUGUST 20, 2012
My Sig Reg is #494, & I'm anticipating late Sept 2012 delivery, but have not yet received my 30 notice.
Anyone know what the latest reg# delivered was, and what the delivery day was??
A mark on the wall would be a reasonable progress forecaster.
Ya, I know the production rate is increasing as we go!
What are your forecast delivery date thoughts & assumptions for my delivery??”

See: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/9489-Model-S-Delivery-Update

@Vplace wrote: My Sig Reg is #494, & I'm anticipating late Sept 2012 delivery, but have not yet received my 30 notice.
Anyone know what the latest reg# delivered was, and what the delivery day was??
A mark on the wall would be a reasonable progress forecaster.
Ya, I know the production rate is increasing as we go!
What are your forecast delivery date thoughts & assumptions for my delivery??

I'm just a bit ahead of you at Sig #422, and my best case scenario for delivery is Mid-October, more likely, late October. Many here and at TMC are hoping for an extremely rapid increase in the current production rate (after quality, supplier, etc. issues are reconciled), but I believe that's wishful thinking, although I hope I'm wrong.

The kind of ramp-up required to meet a September delivery for us (#s in the 400s) would likely affect quality (and as a owner and stockholder, I don't want that). In fact, it's possible that the bottleneck might not be fit and finish, but OEM suppliers (and the quality/availability of their parts) as well as internal logistics and TM's ability to roll-out and deliver hundreds of cars every week.

It's very hard to be patient, but I think you and I have at least another 7 - 10 weeks before we get our cars.

I talked to my Tesla rep last night. I'm Sig #121 and his comment was that we were on track for late September or 1st two weeks of October.

Thanks for the update Kent! Wow, so if I'm Sig #1,186, I can expect mine late November or early December at the earliest with those estimations? I know they will ramp up hard, but not that hard based on them being focused on QA? I don't mind waiting longer, I just don't want delivery to lapse to 2013.

My rep says S1092 still on for Oct (no date yet)!


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