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Current Production Run Rate

Seems like there should be a correlation between increasing calls for orders and increased production rates. May guess would be they are making 50-75 cars per month right now (given data on # of crash test cars, drivable betas, and where they are on the call list.

If we can model this going forward we can predict our individual delivery dates with more confidence, especially for those who have higher general production reservation numbers into 2013-14.

Any spread sheet jockeys want to take a try at that? If not, how some about some educated guesses!!!

I'm not sure why everyone keeps being surprised by these dates and using them to predict late deliveries of Sigs into December. To produce 500 cars this quarter as they keep stateing means that they will make (or have made) about:

50 demo/dealer cars
41 founders
244 special sigs
160 sigs

So, that means that Kent as Sig 121 should expect his late September, to a few weeks into October...
Which, is exactly why he was told it is "on track".

Peter

@Peter7 -

Slight correction. The 500 would be sales.

So, it would be as follows:
41 Founders
244 Special Signatures
215 Signatures

"threebaers | AUGUST 21, 2012
I just got my "Time to Build your Model S" email and I am P3928.”

Looks like most of the orders are in for 5K cars in 2012.

I can see 2014's, "The Electric Car Strikes Back" movie showing a thousand Sigs parked on the factory floor in late August all finished and waiting on sun visors with Elon pulling out what's left of his hair telling people to get the problems worked out and get them out the door no matter what.... ok maybe mid-October.

I like MichiganModels analysis. Thank you for all the details. I'll post as soon as I get the call from Tesla.

(Posted on another read as well)

I'm #3995.

Just got my "It's Time to Build Your Model S" email. I'm #3995.

Based on all the chatter on this site on production pace, I'm a bit nervous that Tesla is just moving up the "finalize your order" email, but not stepping up production at relative rate. That would be a tad consumer unfriendly.

I could have sworn the previous time from "build yours" email to delivery expectation was 2 months; it now appears closer to 4-5 months (forum members quote a Dec/Jan delivery date after having finalized orders in the last wek). That feels a bit as though Tesla is driving people to commit now, without more confidence on delivery.... perhaps doing so to ensure that people don't cancel?

I hope not. Thoughts anyone?

Tesla probably needs the cash flow for production.

"The market" knows Tesla Motors will be making its first big payment on the big loan before the end of the year. If they don't book a bunch of sales, they won't have the cash on hand to pay the loan, and, at least according to one report, they'd have to issue some stock to make the payment.

I guess that's why the stock price isn't floating above 40.

If all this is true, when the next, say, 200 cars are delivered in a short time indicating the 5000 by year end is reality, the stock price should jump.

Michiganmodels,

IIRC Elon stated production of 500 cars durring the Q2 invester call, not sales or deliveries. Was there other guidance from Tesla that I missed?

Thanks,

Peter

EdG - the cars don't turn into cash for Tesla until delivery of the vehicles. I've filled out the order contract and I don't need to pay another penny until the day my car gets delivered (or something very close to that). So, to turn the build orders into cash, Tesla has to deliver, which is what we all want. I'm confident that they will either hit 5,000 deliveries this year or will come pretty close.

Yes, I was just suggesting that when it is public knowledge that deliveries are being made at a rate that makes 5000 deliveries by year end believable, the stock price might jump quickly. This would be due to TM's predicted ability to make their loan payments without diluting the stock.

Say what you will, but if I don't get my S by September (as stated on my MVPA) I will be highly pissed. I slapped down 5 grand the day after the unvieling and ended up with P73. Then all the talk about friends and family going ahead of me didn't sit too well but I kept my mouth shut. So last year I upgraded to Sig 280. I don't want to wait anymore. Too many promises and few results. First it was 1000 by the end of 3Q then 500, what next? Oh yeah, we got a bunch of founders no one counted on, 50 demos. Maybe a few more added in ahead of me by the next thrilling announcement.

Two and a half years is a long time to be patient. I'm beginning to wear thin. I would give Tesla a call, but it appears those that have get an answer that pleases them and based on the posts vary from on rep to another. Tell them anything to make them "smile" again.

Okay, I've vented. I'll now return your forum to it's regularly scheduled format.

PS I didn't spell check so Brian, not a word.

@Volker.Berlin
In the "taking it too literal department", I don't see how Tesla can or should help Fisker vehicles from igniting or needing a recall. ;)

Klaus, I feel your pain. The moving dates do hurt as my original p2407 was told to be July/august when I booked it in April of last year. Now my Sig is listed as October. I do like the idea of high quality as a good excuse but transparency on delays would be nice too.

Klaus;
your facts are wonky. First, it was always known that Founders would get their cars first. The #41 isn't much of a surprise. Second, 26 of the first 100 cars are demos, not 50 (though there will be more as stores get one or two each for OWNERS and prospective customers to ride more than 7.23631 minutes each.

If you didn't believe the warnings and cautions about how approximate the early delivery dates were, then maybe you've learned something.

Screw the facts Brian. In March of 2009, the only facts were delivery in 2011 and I'm out $5000 for 3 and a half years. My MVPA didn't come with warnings either. "On or about September" is what it says and at less than 2 weeks away from September, I had expected a call by now with a more exact date, not some vague blog. Or an explanation. Tesla knew where it stood when I signed the MVPA and either overpromised or figured after I wouldn't mind waiting another month or two. Sorry my patience has run out.

@Peter7 -

The Q2 Shareholder Letter states, "We expect to deliver approximately 500 vehicles to customers in Q3 with the balance delivered in Q4."

Also, during the conference call Elon and Deepak stated:

-They delivered 10 Model S in Q2 (3:40 Mark)
-They produced 40 production Model S vehicles to date (4:00 Mark)
-We plan to deliver 500 units (9:45 Mark)
-"I think it’s probable that we’ll produce more than 500" - Elon Musk (11:30 Mark)

http://ir.teslamotors.com/events.cfm

So, it should be:
31 Founders (10 were delivered in Q2)
244 Special Signatures
225 Signatures

@Klaus,

Actually, if you are S280 you're out $40k, not $5k (unless you got some sweetheart deal for which the rest of us were not eligible).

You're going to get your S280 in early October (unsupported opinion). That's a couple of weeks "late", if you believe that the date on the paperwork was a date-specific promise. I'm S273 and that's the time frame I expect.

But to keep a perspective -- when I put down $40k Tesla was a name and an idea -- no factory, no production employees, certainly no final design. Now those of us in the lower Signature range are just a matter of weeks from having our cars. While every day I wait is torture, when I look at the bigger picture it's just amazing that it's happening at all.

I agree with HaroldS 100%.

We've plopped down a boatload of cash on an unproven company with no track record producing the car we are purchasing and with completely novel technology.

Perhaps we are stupid.

On the other hand, perhaps we are early adopters, helping an innovative company lead our country away from dependence on fossil fuels, leading a revolution that could quite literally change the world.

Changing the world doesn't come quick or easy.

What the people at Tesla are doing is truly revolutionary. I am on board for this revolution and I'm doing my best to support it, not only by buying a car, but by being a shareholder.

I would rather this revolution succeed, and to do so Tesla needs to come out with a spectacular car that everyone loves. If they produce a crappy car for $100k, they're going down and the revolution is over.

I say, let them take their time and make this car correctly so that we love the car, our word of mouth and test rides with friends and family fuel a frenzy, catapulting Tesla to profitability and thereby sustaining the electric revolution!

I would like my car tomorrow. But whether it comes "on time" in September, or not until next year (heaven forbid), I am willing to wait (it's torture) because I see the big picture.

epley;
+2
Prezakly.

Well said Epley.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/238308173990223873/photo/1

I see approx. 6 cars ready for delivery!

@Klaus, you should cancel your order so I can get my car sooner. What color and options did you order?

@HaroldS, You're right, I too have $40k invested since upgrading. I was referring to my initial reservation in 2009. I agree with what you and others have said. Doesn't make me feel any better. I just thought that a little more info should be forth coming considering the wait and cash outlay. Nada. I'm left in the dark. At this point it's all guess work and that is frustrating.

"jrabena@sughrue.com
@Klaus, you should cancel your order so I can get my car sooner."

In a pig's eye. I don't intend on giving $10 grand so easily. BTW, red, white interior, pano roof, 21" wheels and the jump seats.

Klaus, I feel your pain … we are down to the short strokes …exciting but nerve racking!

Signed the MVPA on the 8-17 says deliver date is on/about Nov./2012-Dec.2012. I am an early P, P-11.

@GlennH - that triangulates with what I was told: that all Sigs would be delivered by November 1st, so its great hearing some consistency.

As others have noted however we Sig purchasers will only get a 1-3 week (at most) time advantage over P deliveries. That is disappointing and some of us (me) would not have paid for Sig given such a small time advantage. I don't doubt that Tesla/Elon are probably disappointed as well, thats just how it worked out.

I've been noticing that most of the customer cars built to-date are all Peformance Sigs. I wonder if that means they are going to deliver the Peformance Sigs, before the regular Sigs?

@TikiMan

That's been my contention all along...


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