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Current Production Run Rate

Seems like there should be a correlation between increasing calls for orders and increased production rates. May guess would be they are making 50-75 cars per month right now (given data on # of crash test cars, drivable betas, and where they are on the call list.

If we can model this going forward we can predict our individual delivery dates with more confidence, especially for those who have higher general production reservation numbers into 2013-14.

Any spread sheet jockeys want to take a try at that? If not, how some about some educated guesses!!!

@Teoatawki

You bring back some memories.

My British car made my garage floor look like a cross between a Rorschach test and modern art that was composed of much wider variety of fluid colors.

That 60 KWH is probably what's delaying you Sudre. Tesla did say the 85's would be first, then the 60's.

Is non-air suspension actually accepted in the configurations/confirmations yet? AFAIK, non-air is up in the air, suspended. As it were. ;)

Vawlkus,
There is NO delay. The delivery date will change as the conditions on the line change. Tesla will not give you a phone call when that happens unless it is to deliver the car. If you want a daily, weekly or monthly update you will have to call them.

In this topic one page back,
"I'm P2420 and ordered the 85 kWh battery. I also have a Dec/Jan delivery estimate on my MVPA"
"I'm P2884: 85Kwh and air suspension with Dec/Jan."
"P2630 here, ordered Performance 85kWh, delivery date of Dec/Jan. Also got pano, tech, sound studio, in Grey."

The below is my exact spec from someone else,
"P3446. I finalized paperwork earlier on tuesday immediately after receiving e-mail. mine was nov/dec delivery. I am sceptical too. 60kwh blue with grey leather active suspension"

Brian H,
Standard suspension is indeed accepted in the confirmations. I confirmed with it and am slated for an estimated "Early 2013" delivery. I have not seen anyone else post that they have ordered the standard suspension but would be curious if anyone else has.

I'm P#3820 and once I am in the configure confirmation section I am getting a Nov/Dec delivery date. I suspect that the last batch of emails to configure are all showing an earlier date than last week's batch. For the record I have not confirmed or signed my paperwork yet.

Performance. 85kwh. Black paint. Black leather. Pano roof. Carbon fiber. Tech. Sound. 21". Paint armor. Air suspension. Not getting dual chargers. Delivery in Florida.

Is there anyone who got an email last week who is configuring this week?

I'm just wondering if certain options are holding up certain cars or if the whole schedule has jumped a month forward since last week.

TO: davidcjones (SIG 64) After several calls and a visit to the Newport Beach Store, I (SIG 99) finally got someone at corporate to pin down (kind of) a delivery date (orig. Aug 15th) to a range from Sept. 8th to Sept. 23rd. So let's say Sept. 15th. So looks good so far. However, no way they hit 500 by the 30th.

To ALL: And YES, they are behind, by about 500 cars to date. On a personal level its not so bad, but $$$$$ says that if they can't get through the Sig's before Christmas, they will be broke before new New Years. They are bleeding $30,000,000 a month with just a little more than that in cash on hand. They WILL need to either take on more debt or issue more stock.

Hi All--

Reservation #4,336 and got my email today to build and confirm car. Performance and a delivery date of Nov/Dec this year.

To: Michael S:

If Sig 99 is produced on the 15th that will be car number 384.

My math is

Founders 41
Special Sig 244
Signatures 99
=================
Total 384

I'm Sig. #121 and quoted end of September or first two weeks of October. They would miss by 116 cars. My calculation does not show 500 cars behind. This week will be very interesting as Special Sig #40 gets delivery tomorrow. Tracking deliveries of those Special Sigs should give us a true production rate. A few cars should not impact Tesla's cash flow and will only move some revenue to 4th quarter.

In addition, this does not count any vehicles made after the 15th when yours is built that could still be delivered 3rd quarter.

This all assumes that your are not a Special Sig #99 which then would put Tesla behind about 360 cars. My rep has continued to specify end of September to first couple of weeks in October for delivery. I'm in Ohio, so that will add an extra 4-5 days to ship across country.

Please excuse my Ignorance, but what is a special Sig? I did not realize that there were two Sig lists.

@Michael S

Are you sure about that $30 million a month negative? As a "forward looking statement" (as the disclosure releases always say) that seems like a lot, with revenue beginning to come in now from every delivery. It doesn't seem reasonable that they would be running that magnitude of negative cash flow in, for example, October, unless they shut the line down.

Do you have a source for the $30M/month?

I am reservation #4384 and just got email today to configure my car, with estimated delivery date of Nov/Dec 2012.

However, when I go to the website that has already my configured car, I see there
Estimated Delivery
EARLY 2013
(orders completed by 9/22/2012)

This is my config:
Blue Metallic Paint
Body Color Roof
19" Wheels
Tan Leather Interior
Obeche Wood Matte Décor
85 kWh Battery
Standard Suspension
Supercharge Hardware

I was just playing a bit with the options, and when I added
Active Air Suspension
to my config, then the delivery date changed to:
Estimated Delivery
NOV, 2012 - DEC, 2012
(orders completed by 9/22/2012)

I believe this option is required for cars delivered in 2012, so they just prioritize that option before cars w/o that option.

I just spoke to my Tesla rep today. He told me that conservatively, I should see my car delivered in early October--but that was a conservative estimate and it might arrive in later September. They are clearly a little behind but I will take slow quality over fast shabby any day.

Special Sig 64

This has to be avoided by all means. (myself, above)

One more reason to ramp up slowly and carefully.

@davidcjones

Wow. That is depressing news. That would imply that they are going to miss their 500 by end of Q3 by a wide margin. It also implies that they will not increasing their production rate from 2 cars / day for weeks to come. Clearly they are struggling to ramp. Are you sure he realized you were Special Sig and not Sig?

I am REGULAR Sig #371, and have been quoted multiple times and recently that my "two month window" (a term they love to use, hear it every time) is Sept/Oct.

@DrJ

I'm one behind you, at regular S#372, and the latest estimate I have from Tesla is early to mid October. Based on some of the posts by Special Sig holders, however, it seems unlikely.

I just got off the phone with my Product Specialist - I called to remove the paint armour from my Pearl White Perf Sig and picked up a few more tidbits about production status:

1. I am Sig 692 and Arielle said I should expect mid-october delivery. My MVPA said September originally. There has been a slip for most of the early (Special Sig and Sig) deliveries.

2. Special Sigs ARE ABSOLUTELY different than Sigs. ie. - There is a Special Sig #50 AND a Sig #50...to be a special Sig you must be a roadster owner who then also ordered a Model S Sig. I have seen this difference challenged a number of times so I had to ask.

3. There are "a couple hundred" Special Sigs (that matches well to the 249 I've seen elsewhere identified as the total Special Sig count).

4. All Special Sigs are either completely built out or almost. Delivery may be spread out based on delivery location, etc. but they are all built and in final prep for delivery!

5. SIGNATURE customers can NO LONGER MAKE CHANGES TO THEIR ORDER! My requested change to remove the Paint Armour is able to be honored because it is a "post assembly" process. But, if I wanted to change body paint color at this time, I could NOT!

6. They still believe they will build (but perhaps not have delivered) 5000 Model S's by end of calendar 2012.

7. After purchase items like extra wheels, etc. will be available from the Service Centers at the time you purchase or receive your vehicle. For those who might want a set of 19" rims in addition to the 21" you might be getting with your car.

She emphasized that Tesla management still is on track to build 5000 cars this (calendar) year! They will ramp volume quickly once they believe they have the manufacturing quality and vehicle spec solid. Separately, I heard from the Sales Manager at the Santana Row Showroom that this is the last week Elon will evaluate every car in the line. He is ready to start spot checking and cranking up the volume production ramp!

I'm sad that i won't get my Model S for my B'day but it looks like I will have it for Halloween!!!! Hmmmm...a delivery party and a Halloween Party in one. Sounds Scary!!!!

;-)

cheers

Anybody heard about today's delivery??? I remember reading here SS40 or something like that having his Model S delivered on the 28th

So I see SS 64 is told late Sept or Oct, today SS 40 and 32 took delivery, and all SSigs are built or nearly. I am SS 126 and eagerly await this slight inconsistency working itself out, to the left if possible. Thanks everyone.

Rumbles—yes he recognized I was a special sig. He commented that there was a slow-down due to some problem with suppliers' parts not being up to snuff (he basically blamed the hold-ups on suppliers, and Tesla's unhappiness with their products). So hopefully that will be cleared up and things will be running at full speed soon!

Correction: SS32 (us) didn't take delivery today, and I don't think SS40 (butch) did either. Tesla is keeping us advised but we still don't have a firm date yet. While obviously we are disappointed, the care and professionalism is impressing us... still Tesla lovers. For a few more weeks anyway ;-)

Ya it has to do with a problem with the door handles. TM said it will be 3 weeks to a month delay.

this is so annoying, sig owners paid 40k basically to get their cars earlier...after this delay it will mean that sig cars will not have a significant time advantage over P cars. Furthermore I am curious to see what else Tesla deletes off the Sig/Performances. It is concerning (at this point) that Tesla is having problems with chrome plating and finish process' that should be well sorted at this point during the production timeline. Hopefully there are 300 cars (and growing) that have been produced waiting for door handles. Heck paint my door handles black and get me the car. I hate chrome anyway, the quicker it peels off and I can anodize all the chrome bits the better.

See, there's the shell game:

SS 64 is told late September to early October.
SS 99 (me) is told between Sept. 8th and Sept. 23rd.
SS 32 didn't get theirs when they were supposed to (and still haven't?)

Unless I get mine out of order because I've been a pain in the ass, this does not add up.

Maybe they think we aren't paying attention?

I would love to hear from someone (anyone) who has actually received their car and when they got it.

@Michael S - Thanks for the post. Not the sort of thing we like to hear, but I think it's an honest assessment from someone who has no skin in the game. I just hope TM has enough reserve capital to weather the ramp-up delays.

I am SS 29 and don't have my car yet, was promised yesterday 8/28, but has been delayed

@AndrewB - did they give you a reason or a new projected delivery date? thanks.


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