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Current Production Run Rate

Seems like there should be a correlation between increasing calls for orders and increased production rates. May guess would be they are making 50-75 cars per month right now (given data on # of crash test cars, drivable betas, and where they are on the call list.

If we can model this going forward we can predict our individual delivery dates with more confidence, especially for those who have higher general production reservation numbers into 2013-14.

Any spread sheet jockeys want to take a try at that? If not, how some about some educated guesses!!!

Sources say that 50 cars a day starts, and soon to be 60-70. Employees appear to be the shortfall. Not nearly enough employee vehicles in the plant parking lot. They just might hit the 5000 number this year.

TINO F: Thanks for the info. Can you expand on the "sources"?

Not totally since it is from an inside track, but I will say they are looking to add 175 employment positions asap in Palo Alto alone.

Palo Alto is the design center, no? Ramping for phase III, or the X perhaps?

FYI - I'm I'm 4100 something or other, and in build status in My Garage. Nov/Dec delivery status.

We talked a bit earlier about production delays related to things like door handles. My guess is they are still running the rest of the factory, and using the 90% of the factory that is unused to store components and sections. Perhaps it's just my imagination, but I like to believe there is a building somewhere with hundreds of body shells just waiting for the paint line. And in the other corner a stack of motors, PMUs, and racks of bumpers in another building ready to go. I'm guessing there is not one "line" from start to finish, but a number of production processes that can run independently, producing sub assemblies independent of each other. Given that, when a block here and there resolves, the line should move fast (until the next block... ; ) )

Or so I would like to believe.

Where do you guys see delivery status? I have only ever heard Nov/Dec from my rep on the phone.

Prior to completion, it's in your garage. When you order, it's in your paperwork.

A quote from the Facts page...

"Production - 20,000 units will be produced per year. 5,000 units will be produced in 2012."

Looks like a pretty definitive statement to me. The words "goal" or "target" are nowhere to be found. Maybe it's one of those "accuracy of the moment" statements, but it's been there almost forever.

stevenmaifert, that's marketing information. If you want reliable information, look in the investors documents (letter to shareholders, Q&A conference calls), not in the marketing material.

@jbunn ...

... whether you are 4100 or 4199 (and I guess you just didn't want to give specifics - as most of us here know our production number by heart), I am P188 and my MVPA states Nov/Dec as well. So that tells me that much of the shrouded secrecy is simply to protect their stock value (as has been said here) and to not handcuff themselves if, for example, one or two of their major suppliers - batteries, touch screens - decides to balk on delivery.

As for having several shells sitting around, maybe .. maybe not. I still think it is valid to say that we are all going to be delayed a bit: a small window of time to pay when many of us have been waiting just shy of 3 1/2 years.

WJ

This was the update I received today from a Tesla Ownership Advocate:
"We are still focused on producing 5,000 cars this year, however, the ramp up in the next few months will be slow as we align with our suppliers and refine our production process to full production by the end of the year. This makes it difficult to give an accurate timeframe for delivery..."
I am P-482 and they are telling me late November to early January.

"I am P-482 and they are telling me late November to early January.”

Wow, that date range is a "non-estimate".

I'm number S-320 and received my call today to schedule delivery between Sept 28th to Oct 12th. Yippee!!

Location, location, location. Everyone, please mention your location. WHERE are you taking delivery? (The location!!)

And let us know battery size, and Performance or not.

I'm in Florida

Still waiting to hear in Seattle. Supposedly Sig 802 has been contacted with a delivery window, but I know quite a few SSL are still waiting for news.

I'm Sig 703
Performance
Sig red
Pano roof
Cf interior
Spoiler
21" silver wheels

Supposedly SSL 32 was delivered in Seattle area Monday afternoon.

@Teoatawki | SEPTEMBER 11, 2012

Latest delivery info is here:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/9489-Model-S-Delivery-Upda...

VIN 74 shipping south to Newport Beach by Friday (9/14/12)

Micheal S, what was your sequence #?

@epley

SSL RES #99

VIN 242 scheduled for delivery to donauker--he was SSL 147.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/9489-Model-S-Delivery-Upda...

Well, with that vin, back into an SSL, that looks like a "batch break" or a "New batch".

in an interview this week, Elon said "this week me produce 80!"... so projected 4000/Year.
They still have to ramp up to factor 5.

No call yet for s1092 delivery

Talked to my rep 9/12 and S-1092 delivery is est late Oct/early Nov. No firm date yet :(

My config is
Sig Performance
Pearl White
Panoramic roof
CF Spoiler
21" Grey wheels
White Performance Interior
Carbon Fiber Decor

Saw a rep from local store. He just came back from CA and said they were rotating store personnel into the factory (including international) to help out with final inspections. He said looking across the factory floor was a "Sea of Red"! They are planning producing 60 cars this weekend.

bfranks273,

They are planning producing 60 cars this weekend.

As in "30 cars a day"?! That would be awesome news. It would mean that they are already half way up the steep part of the ramp-up S curve, i.e., practically "throwing the switch".

I believe someone said recently they had shipped 40 cars 2 days in a row; that may or may not match production, of course.

@bfranks273: Re: "Sea of red"

Are you sure he wasn't talking about Tesla's balance sheet?

Just kidding, just kidding! Couldn't resist :)

#10,888

Musk 9/13/12 "we will make 80 cars this week" 3:10 min mark

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1838765496001/ceo-tsunami-of-hurt-coming-...

Wow ! ! !


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