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Current Production Run Rate

Seems like there should be a correlation between increasing calls for orders and increased production rates. May guess would be they are making 50-75 cars per month right now (given data on # of crash test cars, drivable betas, and where they are on the call list.

If we can model this going forward we can predict our individual delivery dates with more confidence, especially for those who have higher general production reservation numbers into 2013-14.

Any spread sheet jockeys want to take a try at that? If not, how some about some educated guesses!!!

Elon tweeted this a bit ago.
RT @elonmusk Tesla made 100 vehicle bodies this week for the first time. Really proud of the team! Pic of S/N 396: http://t.co/fZzbUIjn

Per Elon's Twitter:

Tesla made 100 vehicle bodies this week for the first time. Really proud of the team! Pic of S/N 396: pic.twitter.com/fZzbUIjn
4 hours ago

Whoever gets VIN 396 should same that picture. Looks like their car just got made.

"Save the picture" that is (typo)...

If Tesla keeps the ramp and deliveries coming they are going to be so close to 5000...

10-5 500 cars produced and making 100 a week
10-12 600 cars produced and making 200 a week
10-19 800 cars produced and making 380 a week.
10-26 1180 cars and making 380 (max for 1st shift)
11-02 1560 all US sigs done including Canadian
11-09 1640 into regular production.
11-16 2320
11-23 2700
11-30 3080
12-07 3460
12-14 3840
12-21 4220
12-27 4600 oh so close!

I don't think they will have 5000 delivered this year. I want to be wrong. I don't know if they can make 50 extras per week at full run on one shift.

Don't sweat the small stuff! For the marketplace, at least, the demonstration of full "line productivity" will be the key. A few hundred here or there are "small stuff". Not so much for the one 'on the cusp', of course!

Corr: "for the ones ..." / those

The "small stuff" is whether they have enough cash on hand to make their first loan payment to the guv-mint. No means more stock dilution.

Either way, as P#4559 I know I'll be cutting it close to get mine in 2012!

Paying on an accelerated basis, acc. to Elon.

I heard from a reliable source that they are at 20 cars per day and assembly people can work as many hours as they want. So at 7 days per week it is really 140 cars per week.

@Brian H
"Don't sweat the small stuff! For the marketplace, at least, the demonstration of full "line productivity" will be the key. A few hundred here or there are "small stuff". Not so much for the one 'on the cusp', of course!"

Yes, but if they want to use temporary extra shifts to reduce the backlog and that happens to help them meet the 5,000 by 12/31/2012 I don't think Mr Musk will be complaining.

"In its filing, Tesla said it has increased Model S production at a slower rate than previously expected, partially as a result of delivery delays involving some of its key suppliers. The company said it expects to deliver between 200 and 225 Model S vehicles during the third quarter and another 2,500 to 3,000 during the fourth quarter."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49162131

Quoted from Filing PDF Form-8K

Exhibit 99.1
Recent Developments
Model S Production Ramp
We commenced production of our Model S in June 2012. We continue to ramp production of Model S at the Tesla Factory with the goal of
producing the world’s finest automobile. The Model S is an all new vehicle which we are producing with new employees using new equipment.
As our main focus is on quality, we have methodically increased our Model S production at a rate slower than we had earlier anticipated. To
produce a vehicle that meets our quality standards requires us to carefully analyze each step of our production ramp, improve the efficiency of
our manufacturing processes and continue to train our employees. Our suppliers also must produce new products in sufficient quantities and
quality levels to meet our increasing demand. Certain suppliers have experienced delays in meeting our demand and we continue to focus on
supplier capabilities and constraints. As of September 23, 2012, we have produced a total of 255 Model S vehicles, including 77 Model S
vehicles produced during the week ended September 23, 2012. We anticipate producing over 300 vehicles in the third quarter. We plan to
continue our ramp in order to reach our objective of weekly production of 400 Model S vehicles before the end of 2012 which should enable us
to produce more than 20,000 Model S vehicles in 2013.
We now anticipate that we will deliver between 200 and 225 Model S vehicles to customers in the third quarter and between 2,500 and
3,000 Model S vehicles in the fourth quarter. As such, we believe we will be approximately four to five weeks behind our previously announced
Model S delivery goals as of the end of 2012. As of September 23, 2012, we have delivered 132 Model S vehicles to customers which includes
42 vehicles delivered during the week ended September 23, 2012. The difference between Model S vehicles “delivered” and Model S vehicles
“produced” is due in part to the production of 34 vehicles for marketing and engineering purposes, the time it takes us to do final preparation of
the vehicles for customer delivery, ship Model S vehicles to various final destinations around the United States and arrange for delivery of such
vehicles to customers. We only recognize revenue on delivery of vehicles to customers. As our delivery processes continue to mature, we
anticipate that the difference between vehicles produced and vehicles delivered will continue to shrink. This gap will widen again, however,
during holiday periods and when we begin to ship vehicles to both Europe and Asia in 2013 due to longer transit times for such vehicles.
To increase the rate of production of Model S, we have taken a number of actions, including working with suppliers to help improve
quality and timely delivery of parts, adding automation and second shifts in certain manufacturing areas, increasing training of our
manufacturing staff to improve manufacturing processes, and making changes to personnel in our quality control department. We anticipate,
however, that manufacturing and supplier issues will continue to arise and need to be addressed in a timely manner.

Kent, thank you for being so informative and giving us some insight at what you and others are going through developing a world class car and the growing pains of establishing a totally new car manufacturing company. The future for Tesla is enormous!

Based on this info anyone have an estimated general production number that they'd likely achieve before end-of-year?

here is my guess. 200-225 3rd quarter + 2500-3000 4th qtr minus 1200 sig and specials = 1500 to 2000 production vehicles for 2012. hopefully by then they are making 400 per week.

Mbcaffe, wish is wasn't true, but you sound overly optimistic...

Form 8-K stated:

"We now anticipate that we will deliver between 200 and 225 Model S vehicles to customers in the third quarter and between 2,500 and 3,000 Model S vehicles in the fourth quarter. As such, we believe we will be approximately four to five weeks behind our previously announced Model S delivery goals as of the end of 2012."

Based on the "four to five weeks" statement that I concluded that I need to add a month or two to my MVPA delivery estimate. I figure that I should be braced for two months because they could still be having some supplier issues until things are ramped all the way up.

At the same time the "between 2,500 and 3,000" statement made things seem more promising and I could anticipate only a few weeks delay might be possible. It all depends on where the bottlenecks are and how it impacts the ramp.

I'm a late Sig. So, hopefully I'll still be closer to Halloween than Thanksgiving.

So Hallowe'en night, decked out as the Count, with the car gussied up to look like the Transylvanian Batmobile, you can glide silently through the streets and scare the bejeezus out of the little freeloading vandals that come out to play ...

>:}

The deliveries are all over the place and do not seem to be in sequence even for Sigs.
I hope they can make at least all sigs this year, but I'd rather wait if speeding it up means getting a "work in progress" product.

As for the 4 weeks or so, I think that's already reflected in the projected dates. I doubt it will further extend your delivery, though I may be wrong.

I see you specified MVPA dates; that's different, I s'pose. But all Sigs by the end of Oct. may still happen. That would be ~ 800 in Oct, I guesstimate.

The shipping rate this last wk. of Sept. should be very interesting! If it is 150-200, that's looking OK.

Serglyz, you are exactly saying what we are all worried about.. Until Tesla can get their arms around where they are in the production run, we will all be confused..

Brian, if we get all sig 's by turkey day..we will be very lucky and happy

I think you are right Mel. We'll be very happy and Thankful if all the Sigs make it home for Thanksgiving.

Reiterate my prediction that all Sig’s will be built (not necessarily delivered) by Halloween …. Boo! to the TSLA shorts!

#235 Signature Performance is built... awaiting delivery.

S 615. Got email that delivery date range is Oct 7 - Oct 21. They said they will call 2 weeks ahead to schedule actual date.

+1 joefiorelli


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