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Depreciation of Value

There were days when we would be ecstatic to use our grandpa's camera but now we turnaround our digital cameras every few years (even the high end ones). The newer ones have better features and the price drop of the older camera is significant. Also, advances especially with the battery etc will make the newer models more desirable. Therefore, the depreciation of any other car will be way different than a Tesla. Somewhat countering that argument is the fact that TM will update the software regularly. So what do you think?

Ticker

You have a good point. If in the future you can by a new model S with a better battery (more range) for less money and brand new software and hardware the original model S will depreciate heavily.

However, if Tesla is successful and everybody wants an EV what will be the used value of 200 million ICE that nobody wants?

The S can get a new battery pack--An ICE will always require fossil fuel. I have no idea how long the electric motor will last before replacement (but it will likely outlast me)

I see depreciation of value similar to "net worth"
Every year my accountant tells me my net worth & every year I tell her it is unchanged. I may have more or less money but my "net worth" remains pretty constant to those around me.

From my perspective, the value of my SP has increased in the 2 months I have owned it. The value of my previous BMWs & Lexus vehicles decreased rapidly soon after purchase.

Nobody knows -- the first run on Model S's might be collectors items in the future, or they may be completely worthless. I tend to drive my cars until the wheels fall off, so I don't really care what the depreciation is anyway (which is also why I jumped at the chance to get my car early even though it would be a 2012 model and therefore have a higher depreciation).

It is possible that the battery could be upgraded, but I wouldn't count on it in making my decision to buy the car. For me personally, I had to decide I was happy buying it if nothing was ever upgraded and no superchargers were ever built near me -- YMMV.

I'd expect the depreciation to be potentially steep for the model s if new versions come out with better range/performance for less, or even the same money.

This could be countered though with the supply and demand issue - if you have to wait 12 months for a new one then the second hand version is worth a premium.

There is also the consideration that the overall costs of running ICE vehicles will go up, making the S more attractive.

Timing is likely to be everything. I recently sold a 1st gen 16GB iPad for $275 on ebay, some people are prepared to pay what I'd consider too much for second hand things if they are still considered 'cool'.

It will be interesting to watch either way.

Since there are no "model years" as such, the pattern may be much different from putt-putts'. There are so many major variables in play that I think we're all going to have to wait and see!

Prediction of this future is really hard! :D

And remember, the new versions of most new cars get better mileage, have better technology, more room, etc. than their predecessors, yet the previous versions seem to stubbornly cling to their resale value. I can honestly say I don't really get it, but it's hard to imagine the Model S will be that much different. If in three years someone can't afford the new 350 mile middle battery version of the S for $75k, they may see a used "2012" 85kwh with 250 miles of range after degredation as a good alternative at $60k. Who knows!?

+1 jat@jaet.org

I too will drive this car for 10 years minimum, making it's future value meaningless to me. But I do expect battery cost goes down, so in 7+ years when I need a replacement, I can get it for a song :)

@trydesky - you better be a good singer, as it still isn't going to be cheap. Or perhaps if you are like me, people could pay you *not* to sing :).

Hey, it works for the Chinese, who get big "carbon credits" for not producing a potent GHG that they almost never make anyhow. But they could, so claim billion$ in credits for refraining from what they never actually planned to do anyway.

Good work not to do, if you can get it (to not perform)!


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