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The Future of Electric Vehicles

I believe that the day is fast coming when everyone will be driving an EV and gas cars will be a thing of the past. I recently read where one of the leading automotive company's CEOs said the same thing. Can't remember who it was, though. At any rate, can you imagine how fast the technology will advance when 100% of the auto industries' resources are focused on EV's?

I began working on computers over 30 years ago. Back then you needed a main frame about the size of R2-D2 to get any appreciable power. And then came personal computers. 100 MG of storage was state of the art. 64k RAM. You could have lunch waiting for some of the functions to complete. And file backup? Floppy discs. Each floppy held about five files, so you'd have a box full of floppys. Computer technology was actually in its infancy back then, and now look at how far we've come in just 30 years! Computers so affordable virtually everyone owns one, and the cost keeps coming down. Gigabytes of storage and RAM. Flash drives that hold Gigabytes! Back when I started, a gigabyte was some mystical, unobtainable figure.

Now that there exists an auto company that is, essentially, in its infancy, and that is dedicated exclusively to EV technology and R&D, try to imagine where we will be in 30 years from now. Smaller, more efficient batteries with 500+ mile ranges? 10 minute supercharging for a complete charge? Affordable EV's of all makes and sizes? Who knows? If the mind-boggling advancement of computer technology is any indication, it is very likely that advances in EV technology will follow suit. Especially if and when it becomes the only game in town.

Too bad battery storage won't progress as fast as CPU speed has!

If you haven't already, do a google search for the "Tesla secret master plan". You're looking for a blog post on this site by Elon fom 2006.

You can also search this site using www.volkerize.com. So far all the questions you've posted have been asked and answered many times.

Also check out www.teslamotorsclub.com. Between these two sites there's more info and posts there than you'll be able to read in the next month or two if only take breaks for food, bathroom and sleep!

Cheers!

*from

Thanks, gonesies! You're right. With all the links you've provided I'll be able to find an answer to any question I might have. That will mean no more posts from me and no more stupid jokes.

"You can also search this site using www.volkerize.com. So far all the questions you've posted have been asked and answered many times."

Even the one about kiosks?

We don't mind the jokes, and the enthusiasm is more than welcome!

Even the repeated questions aren't too bad. At least they're easy to answer! ;-)

Cheers!

Search for "J1772" or "tesla metrochargers" or "chargepoint" or "blink network" or "sun country highway" or "CHAdeMO".

At least, I think that's what you mean by kiosks.

Yes, that is what I mean. Again, a thousand thanks!

A few more: EVSE (electric vehicle supply equipment), charging station, HPWC (high power wall connector).

Another charging standard being considered here in the US is the SAE standard. In Europe they've adopted the Mennekes standard and Tesla has made the S plug in Europe directly (no need for an adapter) compatible.

You bet! Glad to help!

As far as Tesla is concerned, the key enabling tech pieces are in place. They just need to be refined and deployed further:

- Battery Tech - Tesla has been refining the battery tech to enable lighter packs for the Model E. Just a matter of time. With the giga factory scale, costs will fall close $100/KW-hr. Autos cheaper than $35k ASP will be possible because the cost of the electronics, electric motor drive will fall quickly. Improved design will cut weight and size. May be even a $25K Camry competitor!

- Supercharger Network - The tech is already being deployed. By the end of this year 80% of the pop in the US will have coverage, same in Western Europe. China and Japan could be next.

- DISRUPTIVE ENERGY COST ADVANTAGE - An electrical fill up may cost 1/10 of comparable gasoline fill-up, especially in Europe. I pay $7-8/week versus $70+ for a comparable Audi 8, S550, etc. This is enough to disrupt the ICE auto industry.

Yes, there will be competition, but it will not be easy. Not like making a knock off copy of iOS with Android and giving it away for free. Meanwhile, big players like Toyota, Honda, Mercedes, etc are barking at the wrong tree with Hydrogen Fuel Cells... very expensive infrastructure, fuel, and dangerous - Hindenburg anybody?

Yes, Tesla could become a company with market cap of $100+B. Disruptive companies like Amazon, Netflix, Apple, Google, Facebook, etc become very valuable.

I would expect the gigafactory to have a megalab for battery R&D "built-in".

While I can understand how easy it is to get caught up in all of the enthusiasm over EV's and the prospect and desire for a breakthrough in battery technology to further the sustainability of EV's (losing one's sense of the moment as a result and dropping their guard as a result), I'd really appreciate it if certain outsiders/factions ("patent trolls") would stop trolling these forums for what will inevitably be proprietary technological insights that they could then exploit for their own purposes, e.g., patenting the tech only to price it well out of the range of use feasibility, effectively cutting off progress in that particularly application of the technology.

Just saying.

EDIT: I see these kind of "digs" damn near everywhere these days performed by people who lack any real intellectual acuity/mental acumen, though they do manage to display a certain degree of cunningness, and have decided that the best way to compensate for this inadequacy (instead of getting an actual education to remedy the shortcoming like a normal person) is by foregoing any indication of morality as they've no apparent compunctions whatsoever against stealing someone else's idea(s) and passing them off as their own.

Anybody I know?

I believe that electric vehicles will replace ICE for urban transportation in the next 20 years.

The sheer % of efficiency gains and wasted heat alone should
be enough for most customers to see the folly in using gasoline for propulsion, (especially if they have a global warming lean).

Material science research by dozens of International company's, university's and national labs are showing alternate paths to improved energy density, power density, safety, reliability and cost.
Virtually every week, on some science blog somewhere, there is an announcement of some newly discovered chemical reaction, material, construction, and energy enhancement.
It is only a matter of time before the "NEXT, Latest & Greatest" lithium ion cell is tested, proved and manufactured.

Couple that with the continued increased efficiencies of solar panels and the potential of LENR produced electricity and the energy landscape changes rapidly, AWAY from fossil fuels.

"Couple that with the continued increased efficiencies of solar panels ..."

I forget what the percentage of efficiency of solar panels is, but it is very low. Did you read within the last couple of months that a much more efficient means of collecting solar power has been discovered - a glass ball rather than cells?

@roseland67
Putting the global warming hoax aside "(especially if they have a global warming lean)", I think you are right on in your prediction "I believe that electric vehicles will replace ICE for urban transportation in the next 20 years". The only part I question is that of the reason for it taking 20 years. The main sticking point is cost. Yes the tesla has the range but for the avg person it is out of reach price wise. The leaf is affordable for most but then you would still need an ICE to drive for the long trips and therefore still cost prohibited. This is where I think the E can be the game changer.

@bigd

I think that when it comes to full/complete ICE-to-EV integration by the commuting mass market roseland67 just might be onto something as it boils down to an issue of complete Governmental adoption of an alternative form of transportation as there is an inherent, grandfathered-in base of support for the conventional form of combustion derived propulsion interwoven into the very fabric of the Nation's (and the World's) economy as we've all been weened on the Big Oil teat and serenaded with the rhythmic burble of a throaty exhaust note (which has become the auto industries' sole selling point, even going so far as to pipe the throttle/exhaust resonance/sound into the passenger cabin just to make it more appealing!...neuro-aural programming anyone?!), which is why it just might take 20 yrs. before commuters manage to kick the conditioned habit and electric-powered propulsion is fully realized.

Then again though we could all wake up one day, have an epiphany, and realize that we've all been forced to compromise our moral integrity, health, and common sense (and that of our descendants as well) for the sake of some manufactured/learned addiction to exhaust fumes and a ringing exhaust note...Stranger things have happened (one can only hope).

@shensierra

That would depend on who you know....

You are right about the traditional use of ICE been inbred into our psych, but money talks. To be honest the only reason I even ventured into this forum and started to look into EV (motorcycles or course) was the thought of not paying $3.25 a gallon for gas :-). No other reason. If the Tesla had a $35,000 car or the leaf had a range of 300miles I would have one and many other people would too. Then in 5 years when there is a lot of used electric cars on the market even more would be able to afford them. When the price and range is right is when it will take off -- period.

And charge time.

@shensierra, top solar is now about 35% efficient (and that costs a lot). Problem with solar is that Sun irradiation is weak. You can get max 1kW/m^2 at sea level in perfect conditions. So you need quite a bit area to make it work, and it doesn't work well everywhere no matter what.

@bigd

The desire, want, and in particular, need, are there already, so it's really just a matter of supply at this point.

Again, a plan is in place...Patience is a virtue well worth cultivating if you haven't the means of pooling the necessary finances.

p.s. Did you happen to catch the electric motorcycles I and others posted in a previous thread?

@just an allusion
I have patience my friend LOL. Now to make one thing clear. I could afford a S right now, not that it would be easy as I would have to let some of my other hobbies go. Motorcycles been one:-(. That said, I don't get the same feeling from driving as some of you do. Not saying it is a bad thing, I just don't get that rush from it. Same as my wife does not "get it" when I have a great day in the gym and bench 405 for 10 reps. I am psyched and she thinks it is no big deal. I want my car to get me from point A to point B with no troubles. Thus, in my mind, I can not justify paying that much for ANY car. I would be the 1st to tell you that as long as you are not over-extending yourself and that is what makes you happy, go for it!!!!!! However, I stand by what I said, price and range is right is when it will take off -- period (and add charging time) - thanks shensierra

Yes, being patient is all anyone can do. I certainly can't afford to buy a Tesla. At some point in time, an affordable EV for everyone will happen. There are a number of reasons I believe this. First of all, Tesla is moving at a frantic rate to put in the infrastructure to support EV's nation wide. In just a few years Tesla will have the monopoly on nation-wide charging stations. The Tesla Supercharge stations will only charge Teslas. In order to compete, the other motor companies will have to license Tesla's technology, making Elon Musk the Bill Gates of the auto industry. When this happens, the race will be on to get EV's into everyones' hands.

Just the last couple of years have seen a sudden upsurge in EV's from the auto industry, so they are aware of what is happening and are investing in that future. But, as it stands, not a whole lot of people are going to buy a car that has a limited range of only 50-100 miles, and then takes hours to recharge. In order to compete, they will have to get on board with Tesla's 300 mile range and 20 minute charge time, both figures, of which, will continuously improve.

The cost of components isn't the only thing that determines the pricing of EV's - efficiency of mass production also figures in. Once Henry Ford got his infrastructure and production assemblies into place, he was able to introduce the Model T, priced for any working class family to be able to afford.

In fact, speaking of the auto industry jumping on to the EV bandwagon, last night I saw my first commercial for an electric car - a BMW.

bigd has the main point about people who have cars just to be transportation. For regular folks who buy cars that are $25K-30K, they're not going to just step up to the 80-90 range just because it's electric. You could probably sell them on maybe $10K more than they would normally pay because they will save that much on gasoline and maintenance over the next decade, but remember that these are the folks who don't buy BMW or Mercedes because they're just too pricey or they don't care to pay the extra for luxury or sports car performance.

shen;
Elon said his 'efficiencies of scale' rule of thumb was that 10X the volume resulted in about halving of costs. The Model E will about match that vs. the MS.

I positively slather with anticipation!


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