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Gen III

Hi guys,
I realise this has probably been talked to death already but what is the general consenus on when we will see a design or prototype for Gen III?

I remember it being talked about that Gen III would be on sale at the end of 2015. Seems like a pretty tight schedule and I have a feeling that this is about to be pushed back to 2016 or 2017 any day now. This would be a shame, as I am anxious for the day we can all say that a Tesla is no longer just a "rich man's toy" (I don't hold this opinion but many out there do).

On the other hand:
Could Tesla be further along on Gen III than they are leading everyone to believe? Maybe they don't want to release the design until they are as close as possible to production so that other car companies won't have the opportunity to copy?

What do you guys think?

You've got it mostly right on the pricing.

Did you hear the conference call? Elon said they are targeting $35K without the Federal $7500 rebate for electric vehicles. That's $27.5K if the rebate still exists in a few years.

I guess we'll find out eventually!

Cheers!

My guesstimate is that TM will have <100,000 credits left by 2016, unless the rumored bump to 500,000 cars/mfr happens.

Brian - also there is a good change that MS and MX will eat all the credits by 2016. When I look around who is buying and who is planning to buy - only a small portion are the traditional premium car buyers - we might be in for another suprise. Wouldn't be a bad scenario. But all depends how many batteries TM can get.
I am working on another MS for my wife - I want her out of her unsafe Mercedes.

@goneskiian

If they are target $35K without it, then I would imagine they would raise the price to $42500 if it were still available...

No, they would not. A cynical and foolish comment.

Note that the subsidy has no impact on how much TM receives per car.

You have to start some where... today $70k for a 200 miles car, cut that in half and you end up at $35k. Cutting in half is a common approach in manufacturing. How to get there - some more efficiency, some economics of scale, some less features and some technology tweaks. Divide 50% by 4 and all of a sudden 12.5% for each category looks much more achivable. Then you divide it into subtasks... 2% here, 4% there, etc. - no rocket science and you have 4 years.

@Brian

Obviously it has nothing to do with it. How do you know that they currently don't use the tax credit as a means to raise the price a bit to gain a little more profit per car sold? You don't.

Im not being cynical, its realistic for a company that needs large margins, to get them by those means.

We will never know if that is the case, but it could be.

What's foolish, is that you think you know for sure how Tesla prices their vehicle.

?? Irrelevant. Tesla receives the price it sets, from the buyer, regardless of whether he qualifies for a subsidy in the following tax filing.

I believe Tesla will give us what they promised: a $35k car. BUT.

There's a caveat, Tesla has perfect tool to tweak prices any way they wish, and just like in Model S it will be "starting price". The tool is the battery. If they can't make 200 mile version with $35k then they make 150 mile version. Or 100 mile.

It's a starting price. Model S Performance+ with all options costs about twice as much as the cheapest Model S. With GenIII price range can be even bigger.

I think 200 miles is the lowest Elon will go. They have no problem today to make the 200 miles Gen3, just not for $35k... for that they have to get less dumb.
And yes there will be higher priced versions reaching in the beginning and later overlapping the MS price range.

@Brian

I didn't say that is how it is, just that it could be. Your "facts" are just speculation. It wouldn't make much sense for Tesla to price their vehicle in the way that I stated mainly because not everyone will qualify for the entire $7500 but it doesn't mean that they couldn't do it.

They could still advertise $35000 on the "order" screen because they would have the $7500 subsidy already accounted for. They do it that way now for the Model S.

Anyways, arguing my opinion is futile anyway, because it will never be confirmed or denied.

Elon would not go below 200miles. The car will just not sell.
$35K @ 200mi will change the world forever.

If Tesla sticks to the sporty/luxurious styling and keep the price under 40k, they will sell a TON. The model S competes with the 5 series bmw. I would guess that the gen 3 will compete with the 3 series. Tesla is going to force automakers to go electric when they see people lining up to buy the gen 3.

Like others, I am waiting for the Gen III model or possibly a used Model S down the road. I believe the Gen III model will have a 200 mile range based on Mr. Musks feelings about existing electric cars with low range. It would be easy to keep the vehicle costs down by keeping the extras out. Without the power door handles, 17 inch display, and other high end luxury features the cost should drop there. Also what about the customer using their own tablet devices as displays for the vehicle. I am assuming of course that the 17" display is just a display device. I would gladly pay $30,000-35,000 for a Tesla with less luxury features.
I want to buy an electric car but do not want to settle for 80-100 mile range.

@JamesH, I think it's fair to say that the transition to EV is far more effective with cars that have 200 mile range, and also that having the option for 200 is important even if the most common model doesn't have that.

In 10 years time, it's plausible that most people will accept that 120 miles is good enough for their day-to-day needs - as long as superchargers are common, and Tesla provides 2 free yearly "swap for a big battery" to use on the big trips.

In a couple of years though? May not be enough superchargers etc for people to be comfortable.


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