Just thought everyone would like to read this. Feel free to sound off.
Yeah, I'm happy if I get it before next years summer vacationn, starting June 17th ;)
Where did the 50% of sigs got October dates come from? I'm sig 915 and my paperwork says September.
and I am Sig 692 and my paperwork also still says September and I changed wheels so received an updated MVPA just a week ago?!
I'm Sig 353 and my paperwork says October. It may involve how the Sig cars are batch produced. We already know Sig before Production. But maybe they're doing PanRoof before metal? Performance after Non-Perf?
"Second, let's do some very simply math. Full tilt production for the Model S according to plan (1 line, single shift) is 20k units per year which translates to 5k units per quarter."
I'm a little confused, here. How do we know what "full tilt production" capacity really is? Just because they have announced a 5K goal for this year and 20K for 2013, are we to assume that is maximum capacity for 1 line, single shift? My point is, they may only be using a portion of total theoretical capacity and have plenty of room to ramp up further, if necessary...
Tesla229, the 20k per year per shift per line have been mentioned repeatedly, in various contexts. I'm pretty sure you can actually find it in writing in one of the past Shareholder Letters, look around the time when they purchased the Fremont facility. This number also corresponds to the number of Model Ss that Tesla wants to sell annually -- according to their plan.
The 16k for 2013 on the other hand, I made up for the sake of the argument (16k units nicely divides by 4 quarters). Regarding the plans for 2013, varying statements have been made. Remarkably, the more recent statement are bolder than the earlier ones. Earlier statements predicted a slow ramp-up well into 2013, which seems plausible to me and which I based my "simple math" on.
Brian H referred to the latest statement from the Q1 2012 conference call. It came as a surprise for most listeners-in at the time, and it still sounds too good to be true in my ears:
Elon: "[...] And our goal is to be at a run rate, an annualized run rate of greater than 20,000 you’d see at the end of the year ."
Investor: "Would you do feel comfortable that you can hit the 20,000 or greater by the end of the year?"
Elon: "I’m highly confident with that, yeah."
"Tesla229, the 20k per year per shift per line have been mentioned repeatedly, in various contexts."
Yes, but how do we know that the 20K per year figure is dictated by factory capacity and not a desire to proceed carefully and methodically, until they are comfortable that all production and quality issues have been resolved? Knowing Elon's track record, I would imagine that the latter scenario is the case...
20K per year per shift, probably does not include Overtime. I think Elon has OT in his back pocket to flex and chew at the backlog as he sees fit. We'll see...
The robotic line in place can support 10 cars per hour maximum per Tesla employees.
@bshortell - sounds like a lot of capacity based on continuous duty of the line...the limitations will be quality control and labor.
This reminds me of the Papa Bull and The Baby Bull on a cliff over looking the heard. The Baby Bull says "Hey Dad, lets run down there and hump one of those cows!" The Papa Bull said "No son, lets walk down and hump them all."
Relax people. If you have ever started up a company, slow and steady wins the race. If there has ever been a time to throw out our absolute demand for instant gratification, it is now.
I just drove the Performance model today. They have not left anything untouched and have done an absolute stellar job creating a next level vehicle. This is not just another car. If they want to fine tune the production, its ok with me. I am still buying the car.
Etographer +2 (every paragraph!)
PilotSteve in the feedback thread had an interesting paraphrase of a discussion with GeargeB after his test drive:
"...ramp up will be exponential and that Tesla would rather delay customer shipments "for a few weeks" in order to guarantee the product quality is superb even if it makes some people unhappy re. stock price and making them wait..."
I noted the words "exponential" and "a few weeks"
I think we do not have anything to worry as future car owners or investors going long. These moves make sense to me.
10/hr. works out to 20K/yr on a 5-day work week. Throw in a Saturday or two and you can start getting above that fairly quickly.
Note that this implies that the 2013 Model X production will be either on a second shift or a second line. GenIII a couple of yrs later is certainly going to need more lines, tho' not necessarily right away.
It will be very interesting to see what mods/upgrades to the lines happen when they start going in. TM won't likely be able to do as much of the 'fire-sale' acquisition of equipment as before, but should be in a position to put some real brain-muscle into the next iteration(s). New robot types? More elaborate and flexible line geometries?
This will be fascinating to track.
“We never actually reported what third quarter production will be,” Musk told me. “The only number we talk about is the production target of 5,000 this year. It’s not a demand issue: We have orders for well over 10,000 cars. We’re confident that the 5,000 number will be approximately correct. The production ramp is very narrow as we iron out the supply chain, but it ramps up very quickly. We want to be careful about the quality of each car.”
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