How many Model S cars have rolled off the assembly line? Is there a running total somewhere?
In line with Elon's promise/prediction that the US Sigs would be delivered "this summer", I expect those 1000 cars to be built before September 21. If the certification for canadian delivery is done on time, then the canadian Sigs would be next.
From this pic:
I see 3 cars on the line that are close enough to roll off on the same day. I am guessing they are at 3 cars a day at least right now.
I wonder how much human fine tuning is goes into each car now? How much of this fine tuning can be automated? If much of the fine tuning can NOT be automated, then the founders and possibly some of the regular sigs are going to get the hidden benefit of more finely tuned model S's. On the other hand, they will probably have to work more of the bugs out too. Just speculating while waiting for the next batch of test drive reports.
I suspect the first cars were held up in part by Elon's decision to personally walk the first cars down the line to better exercise his punctilious perfectionism on them. He wants no embarrassments, especially right off the bat!
Attended the L.A. test drive event yesterday. WHAT A RUSH!! I'm production #229 (Sig-Perf) and was told by my "Co-pilot" that I could expect delivery by late August-early September. I was somewhat disappointed, having hoped for delivery within the next couple of weeks, but after waiting for 2 years already and having driven this magnificent piece of work, I must say it's definitely worth the wait. Hope this helps some of you estimate your delivery timeframe.....
I was looking for information on the Supercharger Network and I stumbled across this site:
It talks about producing 80 cars a day by the end of the year. Hopefully, that will help. That's 400 cars a week! That day will come!
Holy smOkes! This dude just launched a rocket, docked w the ISS returned it to us.... W/ garbage! And ur worried he can't get a production sched together?!
I thinkin I'm gettin 6927 for Xmas!
Just got the word....."The Tesla Factory is building your Model S Signature Performance!"
Tesla229 What is your MVPA date? I assume it is either July or August.
#229 is my production number. (P229)
Good luck Tesla229. Awesome news!
P? Not S? Does this mean that all Signature owners already have their cars? That can't be. Apparently production performance goes ahead of some signature list cars, if they are already building your car. Or that "ramping up" has been a lot faster than previously thought.
I think Tesla229 miss typed. In the original post he stated Sig Perf.
I believe the factory can (and does) take 30-90 days to "build your car"....
Mine too - says "factory is building your signature performance Model S.". Momentarily excited, but you're right, likely a 1-3 month wait still. I am reg Sig (not SSL) #371.
They probably started building the motors and various parts. My guess is their statement "..is building YOUR..." only means they're not going to bother to change the message until they deliver the car.
I think they have been making motors, batteries, doors, hoods, roofs, etc for a while now. Most parts are probably stocked on the line ready to snap in. It probably takes less than a week to assemble the car if the parts are ready in a normal process. Since these are Sigs they will probably have more human time so it might be up to a month.
We may be getting into the over deliver part..... at least I hope so.
If you Google car manufacturing you'll get some numbers and they are listed in hours not day. Stamping, welding, painting, stuff like that.
I don't think they have one guy make the motor then walk over to the battery section to make the battery then walk over to stamping......
The factory is now building your... Is the default status after your MVPA is signed through the new online order system. In effect, the order is ready to be sent to the factory for assembly. When that might actually happen is anybody's guess.
If it is taking 3 months to make a Model S and they are promissing delivery of 5k in 2012, then wouldn't prodution need to be 1666/month for the entire Q3? The 5000th car will need to enter production on Sept 30 correct? If I am correct, and the factory runs 7 days a week, then they need to have 55/day being made right now. If the factory runs an average of 22 days giving weekends off for a 4 week month, then they need to be making 75 per day right now.
What are your thoughts?
They're making parts or systems and stopping production at every step and triple checking each to see if they can find any imperfections or ways to make each production step more reliable.
As their confidence builds at each and every step, they will reduce and then eliminate the forced delays. When all the steps have the delays gone, they'll be at full speed for the production line.
After that, if they want to increase production, they'll have to go to more shifts (evening, night).
So they don't need to make everything 3 months in advance to feed the line.
Rest assured that it does not take 3 months to build a car. There are 2 batching processes going on behind the scenes to manufacture and deliver the cars efficiently. First, you want to batch up identical/nearly identical cars to maximize line efficiency, but you also want to have batches of cars going to various areas of the country for efficiency of transportation and delivery. They also want to know they'll have all the parts they need as they need them for the upcoming production period, which means they need to know the exact configuration of the next N cars they are building.
So the brain trust at Tesla has determined that 90 to 120 days lead time gives them the best efficiency overall.
30-90 days is my guess of today's "process time", not really how long it takes to run a single car thru the line. A better way to think about delivery time is that Tesia is not going to expand production linearly but rather exponentially once they get past the current "one per day" start up.
It has occurred to me that the "one per day" target gives 23.5 hours after that car comes off the line to remove the tooling, adjust it, change inspection standards, etc. etc. before building the "next car". I think this is a great approach.
The real tell will be when the first 3-4 cars are delivered to owners. That would signal the process and tooling changes are 98% complete and the exponential increase in daily deliveries has begun.
?? Since cars go sequentially from robot station to robot station, why would tooling need to be removed? AFAIK part of the design was to make it so that that rarely or never happens.
I suspect the car takes a fraction of the time they allow themselves to make. I think Tesla220 gets his car in August, latest. Remember, TM has stated all Sigs will have been produced by October.
@BrianH - my suggest about tooling was that its removal was for minor adjustments etc. to make fit/finish meet "best in the world" standards. That is why I see the one per day ramping up exponentially. Of course the line will manufacture cars with minimal process time (will be interesting to see if Tesla ever tells us how long that actually when in full production).
Idea: a better status tag be "Tesla is now finishing the factory that will build your car"!
They have already complete the 250 founders cars if they are starting on Sigs. The adjusting of the tools is done. I doubt they delivered crappy cars to the founders. I agree with Brians timeline.
@Sudre_ - is there any evidence they have delivered any cars beyond the first 12 and a unknown number of test drive cars? I'm not a all negative (far from it, I've been told October for my sig too) just have not heard anything announced about any further deliveries. Thus my thinking that the line is/was being adjusted with the "one per day". I do expect to see a flood of deliveries any day now!
@Sudre_ | JUNE 30, 2012
"From this pic:
I see 3 cars on the line that are close enough to roll off on the same day. I am guessing they are at 3 cars a day at least right now."
I called 7/11 because I was concerned about the lack of deliveries and was told they were making "a few a day." Maybe they are going to do a bulk announcement (eg 100's not 10's) for the up coming earnings call in Aug (no date set yet).
However, this would be typical Elon showmanship "ALL SIG'S WILL BE DELIVERED by 9/1" ! ! ! We can only hope :)
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