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All of the sudden we get a big jump in the VIN #s the day before earnings report. From yesterday's reports with VIN numbers jumping more than 500 above the previous high in one day, it seems to me to be something to do with the way they are issued and not the production rate declining. Whew... I was getting worried for a bit.
Maybe Brian is right after all, and we will indeed start seeing more VIN's being posted now. Let's see what happens from now on.
Has anybody seen the EU Delivery Status spread sheet? I found it on a link in this Forum, several weeks ago. I just recently looked at it again. It appears to be for real, and shows all the vehicles on order for Europe. It gives the last of the VIN, the price of the vehicle in the countries currency,equipment,color,order,build and delivery status. It appears that the majority of the cars are going to Norway, like 80%. So I started to wonder why, are all these cars going to Norway, which is the size of Indiana, and not to Germany. Well it's the EV government subsidy, German has none. Norway,Switzerland,Holland and Denmark were the major ordering countries, But Norway's the biggest market in Europe. Tesla was delivering cars in the 15000 VINs as late as September. Many of the early 20000's show delivery dates of late Nov. and Dec. There are approximately 500 vehicles on this spread sheet, and it's updated daily. Anybody wanting to find it, look for the postings around early OCT, around page 4 or 5.
Also, just for fun, here's the entirety of my dataset in one plot for 6/1/13 - 11/5/13 (today).
Stepping back out, the rate of growth in VIN assignments looks pretty consistent, which is to be expected for a firm whose production capacity is pretty fixed and demand generally matches, if not outstrips, its capacity. Today's call should be interesting since we all know Musk obsesses over the company's production capacity.
Speculation at Alpha is that the 700+ rate reflected catch-up on VIN-less Euro orders. The underlying 570-ish rate is now in evidence.
Sorry I did not post my date of issue:
It was Oct. 30, 2013
Vin number is: 5YJSA1CP3DFP26737
At least some of the October peak is probably from other people doing what I did, getting my order in to take delivery (mine in mid Nov) before year end. That allows me to get my $13.5K federal & CO tax credits a year earlier than if I took delivery after the first of the year. I don't find it that surprising that there would be some tapering off near the end of October for VINs that would deliver around Christmas or just after the first of the year.
For xradr, The Vin # assignment is reported on the day the owner got their Vin #. So, it "equates" to something, perhaps production rate which follows order confirmation or "the sale". It really isn't sold until delivered to a customer which is hard to track systematically. I like this chart but it is misleading since Vin #s seem to be given out weeks if not months (for EU) in advance before people get their cars.
Craig, you're gaining some serious notoriety. Congrat's!
Received my HPC last week. My car was assigned Vin #24671. Ordered car September 16th. Changed to twin chargers after 2 weeks. I am offering the HPC for sale. Contact @ email@example.com.
Ordered 10/4, Confirmed 10/5, VIN 11/5, 27303
Thank you so much for keeping this statistics. It would nice if you can also calculate the average waiting period between order and VIN assignment, and between VIN assignment and Delivery . Since accounting principle only allow firm to recognize revenue when product is delivered, adjusting those two lags would yield an more accurate earnings estimate. My email is firstname.lastname@example.org
I think a bunch came out today.
Got mine too.
ordered 10/4, confirmed 10/6 but then added power folding mirrors and changed the color from white to grey.
OCT 30, 2013
Craig, your graph of the full data set shows the data to be grouped very tightly around that curve. A quick calculation indicates about a 13,000 increase in VINs over about 22 weeks. Does that sound right? That works out to an average of approximately 590 per week in the second half of 2013. Is that correct?
VIN 21686 (Model S85) issued sometime before 9/13 when I rcvd email from Tesla.
Sorry didn't check the Dashboard - was out of country around this time.
Thanks much for the additional info.
I was thinking that the drop off in VINs (and reporting of them on the forums) was more a function of differing social behavior. The very early adopters likely followed these forums much more closely. I would suspect they tend to participate and post on them more frequently.
As acceptance of the car increases, the need to obsess and check forums every few hours (like I did) wanes. Indeed, I know people who are owners who have never signed into or viewed the forums.
I was thinking that the decreased reporting bias might have some impact on the calculated rate of VIN issuance (since 'N' is smaller). I suspect that I am wrong and it likely has to do with other factors.
So, the question was: Do you think the tail off in the weekly VIN assignments is due to a statistical anomaly/bias, a methodological problem with VIN issuance (batch assignments), or an actual slow down in ordering?
26879 Ordered October 25th, 2013
Dang. They are blaming the stock drop on these VIN numbers. Geez. Maybe it is time to lock the thread.
Ordered and Confirmed 10/14
Upgraded to P85 on 10/28
VIN received 11/5 #27506
Delivery estimated for 12/22
Chart updated again.
A few reactions to the quarterly call:
1) 5500 delivered cars is lower than I expected and I thought I was being conservative when the low end of my predicted range was 5600 cars. So, I'm a little surprised, but it does highlight the challenge in translating VINs to delivered vehicles. There's obviously a lot of "loss" in that conversion.
2) The EU backlog is shrinking a lot, but it's not gone altogether. They also claim that there's still enough demand from NA all by itself to require 20K+ cars a year. So I really don't understand the VIN assignment rate falling so much over the past 3 weeks. It's a real head-scratcher.
3) CHINA! Holy crap. Homologation is done and Tesla is taking orders for Q2 2014 deliveries. That's exciting, but also a little scary (if you're me) since those VINs will likely never be reported here on the English-language forums. That's only going to make it tougher to track VINs. But, the upside potential of sales there is massive...more than the entire EU, possibly.
@xradr - I don't know. Well, we know that at the start of the 2013 year, there were about 20,000 registered reservations. The release of the Vin #s through the summer may have used a lot of those from Europe along with the USA. Now that things may have been worked through - we just don't know the extent of European orders ("reservations") which are not yet receiving their Vins.
What is apparent - a new order for a Tesla in the USA can get their confirmation confirmed with a Vin # and production a couple weeks later. Backlog must be down to a limited number, perhaps only European at this point.
Craig, I think everybody has been had, you can not use these VINs to calculate or project sales. If we use these numbers, Tesla will sell and produce 8900 vehicles in the last quarter. The numbers reported to day were 5500 for the 3rd and 6000 projected for the 4th, by Tesla. 10,156 for the first half, plus 11,500 equals 21,656 for 2013. The 27,500 VINs, includes 2,952 S's built and sold in 2012, Tesla didn't start at zero, for the 2013's. It's been a lot of fun, but I'm not sure if we learned anything, and I wouldn't take the numbers to the bank or stock market, you might get your plow or clock cleaned. The stock was down almost $20 in after hours trading, with over 3.5 million shares traded. Thanks for the effort, It's been real.
27609 - November 5, 2013
I just confirmed today, and the VIN appeared about 10 minutes later.
Late December Delivery.
Everyone knew the 2012 count had to be subtracted. More crucial was the bunching of VINs backlogged for Europe. The total YTD then must allow for in transit and pre-production vehicles. Sorry your simple-minded assumptions didn't work out.
Can you read Chinese numbers?
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