Per Elon at All Things D...after tomorrow's, around June 20 is next (presumably the "fifth" in the trilogy)
I may stop by Hawthorne tonight on the way home. If I do I'll grab a pic and post it. Anyone else headed in that direction is welcome to do the same.
Here it is:
"up to speed" -- sounds like they are planning to surprise us with how fast these guys can charge your car.
@MandL maybe build the first 10,000 Gen III's WAY ahead of schedule.
Not next week obviously but, but if you can get a 85 battery in a Gen III, and build a whole lotta superchargers as well? Not only do you get a Gen III with better range than the 200 miles Elon has recently said. This assumes no HUGE breakthroughs in battery performance/price.
I'm probably just being a fan at this point, but it may be a self sustaining loop of "used" new cars and a LOT more superchargers.
Think about it. Buy Gen III with new battery for the full price. Cool. Buy Gen III with a refurbished battery and the same warranty and same supercharger capabilities? We might be talking $32,000-$36,000 for a "new" Gen III.
Oh and by the way, this program also helps to expand the supercharger network across the country in half the time as expected. Maybe it's time to start cashing in on this Tesla fanatic owners/shareholders while at the same time silencing the critics.
If you build it, and offer it, it will come.
"Curb rash is not caused by a lack of parking sensors, it's caused by a lack of parking skill.”
True but….parking sensors + skill = extremely low probability of curb rash
skills alone = low probability of curb rash
poor skills + no parking sensors = very high probability of curb rash
I would rather stack the odds in my favor regardless of skill level….I’ll give you the last word.
poor skills + parking sensors = just valet it/ ;-)
I've never been able to trust a valet with my S. I think we are usually too trustworthy that valets are somehow 'magically' good drivers, when they are almost certainly average, and probably less likely to take as good care of your car as you would.
Not sure that parking sensors would create curb rash or not. I haven't had the misfortune of it yet, thankfully.
As soon as I read your response I regretted my post. I certainly do not want to start another debate on valet parking.
It's been done to death.
jtodtman --- HOW CAN YOU BE SO INSENTIVE TOWARD VALETS!?
Sorry, too easy, too fun. :)
They say it takes one to know one, and I was one.
Elon will plug in. Get in his MS. Set the charge on the screen to take nearly half a mega wat (or more). Then well all observe the miles go up like crazy to full.
It will demonstrate on site battery storage potential as well as how advanced the supercharging system really is. He said at the shareholder meeting the SC advancements will be additive as opposed to complete reinvention to infrastructure (sorry no swap gonna happen.)
I'm in with the no-swap contingent. I think it will be a next step up, but not ready for widespread release, of the supercharging network.
As for curbing wheels...well, I finally test drove and I can certainly see how easy it would be to lose track of where those corners are. I know it's a large car and all but damn, it sure felt no bigger than my wife's BMW 3. Gotta love that scoot! ;-)
2 weeks ago Elon announced the 2/3 battery charge in 20 minutes with the 120KW SC that are in beta. I find it extremely unlikely that next week he will suddenly talk about faster charging (and I doubt that much more is technically feasible). It has to be some form of swapping.
Unfortunately, I think it is also a battery swap demo. I say unfortunately because I think it is a lousy strategy. It would be a distraction from Superchargers.
Hopefully it is only a demo and Tesla has no plans to spend any resources to start building battery swap networks. I think it would be a disaster financially for the company.
I don't see why battery swap networks would have to be so expensive. First, I would think it would be an add-on to a supercharger since they need to charge the old batteries anyway. Second it doesn't even have to be that many superchargers. I would think it could be built on like 3 parking spaces and basically bolted down so no extra foundation or anything. One space would be the ramp. The other two spaces would be where all the batteries are stored. Because of supercharging they don't even need too many batteries, especially if they limit it to the 85kwh version.
I guess people think this is expensive because it was expensive for Better Place? Better Place built gas station sized facilities in populated areas. We know Tesla is not going to do that.
In my case the supercharger network convinced me that we could have 2 electric cars instead of just one but it might take battery swapping to convince my wife of this. Remember, Tesla is not just going after the early adopters here. There are a lot of people who will not buy an electric car until they know on longer trips they can make just as good or better time. My uncle, for example, likes to pack a sandwich so he doesn't have to stop except for gas. Well, if you told him he didn't even have to get out of the car to fill up he might actually want an electric car.
Another thought I just had is most the posters maybe live on the coasts? So you don't understand 800+ mile road trips? If you live on the coasts you can just get a direct flight to wherever and most road trips are shorter. If you live in the middle sometimes driving makes more sense instead of having to change planes a million times. Also, if your destination is not popular tickets are very expensive. Elon believes there is a lot of opportunity here. He could be right. People in the middle also don't spend ridiculous amounts of money on their houses due to real estate prices so they might have some extra left over for a Model S - and certainly a Gen III.
Also, if he puts the swapping mostly in the middle of the country and it only takes up 3 or so parking spaces I guarantee you he can get the real estate for free if he has supercharger spots right next to it.
In conclusion I think battery swapping will be exactly what is announced, it will not be expensive, the stock will be down a little, but in the long run Tesla will sell more cars. Also, I'm hoping the stock tanks so I can buy more shares for cheap.
One other thing from my long post - I see swapping and supercharging side-by-side. Swapping would be like a $40 fee - about the same price as gas would cost. This way people are encouraged to use the superchargers when feasible and spend money at the nearby business and guaranteeing Tesla can get cheaper real estate still.
Ditto that on the stock. I believe they're gonna reveal a new battery and enhanced supercharger process. If they demonstrate that you can charge a battery to 200+ miles in less than 10 minutes, the stock will double and I won't be able to afford it any more. I've had a great ride so far, though.
If they demonstrate the battery swap, however, that'll kindle a lot of skepticism and if they don't implement it right away, the stock'll stay down.
Each Better Place battery swap location involved a capital cost of about $500,000 + extremely high expenses for keeping it staffed and maintained. For battery swapping to make a difference, it would need to be deployed in significant numbers - to cover the US would cost more than the R&D expenses to build the 3rd Gen EV!
I don't think any of us can claim we are smarter or have more business savvy than Elon...but it's very obvious to me that battery swapping fails the common sense test - even if Tesla had $500,000,000 to build a network of battery swappers, this capital investment would be far better invested in additional Superchargers.
I don't think battery swapping fails the common sense test if it is compact and automatic and doesn't cost a lot. What if the expenses were extremely low? What if it required no staffing? Just because Better Place did it in a very expensive way does not mean that Tesla has to do it the same way.
Do people see battery swapping as requiring NO human intervention, i.e., completely robotic? I very much doubt that. Something that complex would need to be staffed. So swapping at supercharger sites would require hiring people to staff those sites. Not likely, as it is a very inefficient use of skilled employees, who would spend most of the day doing nothing.
Swapping would be more practical in a handful of service centers. It would not be used for road trips, but for people who pay for a swapping option: battery replacement whenever needed, part of the $12,000 (or more) battery replacement option.
Nah. I don't think that anymore either.
Someone in this or a different thread mentioned Occam's Razor: among competing hypotheses, the hypothesis with the fewest assumptions should be selected.
So here are the three main contenders:
1. Improve existing superchargers and software to deliver a much faster charge.
2. Develop the technology and equipment to quickly remove dozens of bolts and connections, move a 1200 pound battery out and another one in, reconnect everything; deploy this technology, along with a large inventory of fully charged batteries, in many locations; come up with a pricing plan for all of the above.
3. Develop an entirely new type of battery; install connections in the frunk; create the software to allow this new battery to charge the old one while the car is driving; distribute these batteries throughout the country; develop a pricing plan for all of the above.
Occam and I vote for #1.
That is sensible. While I think #3 would be really cool for road tripping, I gotta side with Occam and you on this one.
120kwh and 150 miles added in 20 minutes is not bad, and works for me. I can easily find stuff to do for that long when stopping every couple hours on a trip. I believe the battery is capable of charging even faster for a short while, then can be tapered down as the battery becomes charged. IMO the connector and cable to the car battery will become the limiting factor. That is what would eventually have to be upgraded to enable the fastest possible charging of the existing battery, or, I could be wrong and it is more robust than I suspect, time will tell.
Battery swap is in the title of the invite!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You simply cannot ignore that.
Moreover, battery swapping is discussed in the 10q. During the annoucement for the Supercharger expansion, Elon responded to a question about battery swapping by saying "we may have something to say about that in the future". Why would Elon have a live demonstration to show an increase in supercharging speed within ~1 month of his last annoucement of increased supercharger speed? That makes no logical sense.
Thus, logic dictates that battery swapping, not faster charging, is going to be the demonstration. The only question is main pack vs secondary range pack swapping. Main pack swapping is impractical and makes little business sense (as discussed buy many above). Finally, Tesla has patents on Air-metal batteries.
Putting that together, it is not even close: the demonstration will be a secondary air-metal battery for the frunk.
mdemetri -- just like the battery swap idea, that link leads to a dead end.
It usta was live; it's bin deep-sixed. Too revealing, or misleading?
There aren't any breakthroughs needed to implement battery-swapping. Why would they wait until now only to announce it? Why didn't they begin it a year ago? Nothing was holding them back.
Also, in order to implement battery swapping, Tesla's entire business model would have to be revised, starting with pricing, warranties, service, and indeed, the whole premise on how Tesla is going to actually make money.
Now, with such a major revision of your business model, there is naturally going to be a lot of questions from customers, stockholders, and the media just to name a few. Elon is going to have a lot of explaining to do, especially in light of the recent Better Place bankruptcy.
Yet, when asked about this latest announcement - if there'd be more to follow? - Elon said that after this announcement, they were "going to be quiet for a while."
Well now, it goes without saying that you are not going to "be quiet for a while" after suddenly demonstrating a contraption that is attacking, munching, and gnawing on someone's $100,000.00 investment and looking like a cross between a carnival ride and something out of the "Terminator."
People are going to be screaming questions at you for weeks about the new technology and departure from your business model. I'm sure he'd anticipate the frenzy of questions to which he'd need to respond, and that something like a nationwide public relations tour would be required rather than simply "being quiet for a while."
Elon is a smart guy. The demo will accelerate, not slow sales of current products.
There's more of a chance of Elon announcing using the hyperloop to move fully charged batteries to SC stations around the country -- provided by the "distributed energy" company named SolarCity btw -- then the battery swap business-killer idea...
Hey that's actually a good idea for Solarcity... use the hyperloop to deliver fully charged back up batteries to solar system customers like a milk man delivering milk bottles (and picking them up.) Actually wouldn't need PV systems at the house or business anymore. Just need a battery system that can supply enough electricity to power their needs. Swap out discharged battery for charged battery when needed. Batteries would be charged at solar farms somewhere else and transported by the hyper loop in a matter of a couple hours anywhere in the US...
New tech battery and consequent faster charging, compatible with existing vehicles is my guess.
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