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No Person Will Pay For Battery Swap Convenience --- Please Read

To the people who believe battery swap -- as Elon has demonstrated it -- is a fools game...

Frederick W. Smith
"Father of Overnight Delivery Business"

http://www.achievement.org/autodoc/page/smi0bio-1

"...While attending Yale University, Fred Smith wrote a paper on the need for reliable overnight delivery in a computerized information age. His professor found the premise improbable, and to the best of Smith's recollection, he only received a grade of C for this effort, but the idea remained with him..."

People will pay for convenience.

I don't argue that many people will continue to use the Supercharger.

However, over time, most people will:

1) Charge from home, or
2) Batter swap at "Tesla Stations"

You thought people wouldn't pay for overnight convenience in shipping?

There's now a business model for SAME DAY SHIPPING.

It's Red Box for half ton platters!

Agreed that "lease" makes sense. Elon is a Silicon Valley (ex-software) guy. The rage is recurring revenue with SaaS and subscription-based business models. Instead of buying the car for $70,000, you buy it for $45,000 and a $250 per month "subscription" that includes batteries (when yours degrades below a certain capacity) and electricity (when you need it on road trips). Basically, this reduces the up-front cost and compensates Tesla for lifetime cost savings of electricity over gas. Truth is, that I think this MUST happen for Tesla to sell their lower cost BMW 3-killer.

A side benefit of the battery swap installations may be power storage. The batteries in storage could be used to supply a higher peak power to the superchargers when not needed for swapping, and can be used to store excess solar power and cheap grid power during the night. Possibly even sell power back to the utilities during the day. I'm sure Solar City understands the business model.

+1 @ TeslaOR - boy, does that make sense! They had already started deploying battery stacks at the superchargers to handle peak loads (not always easy to get a 500kW+ feed in a remote location!) and make max use of the solar. Guess the battery stack is just a hopper for the auto-swapper.

I think the $60-$80/swap and likely desire to pay it again and pick up your battery is what makes this workable. It is expensive (though not that expensive) so they need to be sure they are recovering the costs if it ends up being a service people use. If no one uses it during the initial roll out it will be canned or suspended until the Gen III comes out with lower battery ranges.

Yes the same thing when Steve Jobs showed the first iPhone. How could one use a phone or type without a keypad? Lol...

BTW the note the professor wrote on Fred Smith's paper is in order to get a better grade the idea has to work. Lol again....

That's what separates visionaries and common folks.

Battery swap, to me, is an option. An option some are willing to pay as mentioned several times in this thread. The concerns about swapping a battery that is "driven hard" is ridiculous because the warranty comes with it. And, right now you have no guarantees that the current battery you have, assuming you have a Model S :), will be perfect for 8 years +.
At the end of the day, and I'm pretty sure Elon has taken a page out of Steve Job's Apple play book, they need to focus on battery technology. The REAL game changer will be if they offer an upgraded battery that can get 4-500 miles per charge. There is no doubt in my mind it's close. So, imagine if you pull in to a TESLA charge/ battery swap station and now you have the option to swap out your battery for a 250, 350 or 500 mile battery, for a price of course. That would lend itself to the delivery model of 3-day ground, 2-day express, or overnight shipping options. And/or, as battery technology becomes more efficient and lighter, you will see Model S on the roads for a very long time. I see that. Either way, it was brilliant to have designed the Model S to be able to battery swap.

@mdemetri : since I own a P85 I really don't even look at gas stations anymore but I don't recall ever seeing a high end car waiting in line at Costco. It's a completely different market segment. Personally, I value my time a little higher than waiting 15 minutes to save a dollar. I suspect I'm not alone.

@Bubba2000 : Swap is both practical and cost effective. You're looking at it as a single owner, and we can agree to disagree (as an owner I see it as cheap and practical). But look at it from a bigger perspective. What's the barrier to faster supercharging? Having lots of power at hand. The grid can't handle it; they need a huge battery. What's the swap station? A massive battery. So Tesla gets to harness the battery packs to increase power to superchargers. But the big win for Tesla is that they'll be charging all the batteries at /night/ balancing the electric grid and using cut-rate off-peak electricity. Practical. Cost effective. Brilliant.

Personally as an owner I see $120 as being a pretty reasonable cost for ~500 miles of charge, especially if it saves me an hour sitting around on the side of the road. If it's two hours each time because of a line it's a no-brainer to swap.


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