Forums

Join The Community
RegisterLogin

Projected Delivery Dates

Based on announced 5000 unit production run* from June 2012 to December 2012 (avg. 833 per month): June/July for R & S reservations = first 1,666 cars; Aug rest of 230-300mi packs = 2,500 cars; Sept 160mi packs up to P 833; Oct 160mi packs up to P 1,666; Nov/Dec 160mi packs up to P 2500.

Of course the sequence numbers we all have are bogus since no one knows what the drop out rate will be at the time of delivery (it would be nice if they gave us an ETA delivery date now (based on real data) or did a “re-sequencing” of reservation numbers.

P.S. the fact that the larger packs got moved to the front of the line really burns me since I hold P 469 and this policy was not announced up-front. Still, I can’t wait …

* http://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2011/03/tesla-sets-price-production-plan...

Tesla intends to "ramp up" production. Starting at zero cars per year and reaching 20'000 cars/year within half a year results in 5'000 cars. Monthly car production will increase by 278 cars per month. So there will be no 833 cars produced in the first month. Waiting will be a bit longer but at least we know that production has started. Makes it a lot easier for me.

My numbers are only an off-the cuff example based on "I wonder when I'm going to get my car" (P 469)? If they start at only 278 units per month that would be a heck of a ram up to reach 5000 by the end of 2012. Us poor folk with low P #s would be lucky to get something by Thanksgiving!

Thanks for your input VolkerP. Anybody else want to take a crack at doing a model time table for delivery?

I'll bet you the production line begins before summer 2012. If it were me, I would give everyone a conservative date and then exceed expectations.

Hooray. If Vollker is right, then my Signature #101 (US) reservation will most likely get me one of the first month's cars. :-)

If it were me, I would give everyone a conservative date and then exceed expectations. (David M.)

That's precisely what Tesla has been doing consistently so far. Problem with this strategy is: If you apply it too often, people's expectations rise and it will be more and more difficult to exceed them. :-)

Typically, the "right thing" to do from a schedule publishing viewpoint is to pick the 90% mark. By which I mean the date you're 90% confident you'll be ready by. There are very valid statistical ways to determine 90% confidence if you've kept a history of how things have gone so far in a project. That said, most companies (particularly software companies) suck at doing the "right thing".

What 90% does mean though is there is a decent chance you'll come in ahead of that by some amount. That doesn't mean you're sandbagging to exceed the conservative date, it's just good planning. You want every confidence your product is going to be ready to go when your marketing campaigns kick off, when you've scheduled to build/open stores, etc. It's very expensive to be late in far more ways than just delayed sales. Being early can also have costs as some folks sit around waiting for the other items to take off, but being early is better than late by several orders of magnitude.

At #2840, I'm expecting late fall, but hoping for early fall.

Today at Challenge Bibendum in Berlin Tempelhof Airport, I talked to an RWE-representative.
http://www.michelinchallengebibendum.com/en/Berlin-2011

RWE is one of the 4 big players in Germany's energy/electricity market. They have been running a big campaign for EVs for quite a while now, which comes across a bit funny and pointless with almost no EVs available to the general public. They were among the first to show off a Tesla Roadster in Germany, and the guy told me they are expecting their Model S before the end of this(!) year. He told me that they will not receive their unit through the regular reservation queue, but rather as part of the first batch of vehicles (others go to Tesla show rooms).

I found that very interesting and will try to stay up-to-date on the topic. Maybe it will be possible to see and even test drive a real Model S (beta build??) in Germany still this year.

Yep, betas are going to showrooms this summer :)

On today's 8/3/11 conference call 160 battery was "maybe we will throw a few in by December" So most 160 battery packs will be in 2013 as it stands now!

Big event Oct. 1st for those who put down a deposit; will be driven in betas (no time for everyone to drive); will visit the factory.

No reasons to think there will be delays. All goals on schedule (5* safety etc.). Mid-2012 is to be conservative / sure it will be met.

Is there audio recording of this conf call somewhere?

yes, tsla on yahoo finance look for link

Thanks for that. Here's a transcript of it also: http://seekingalpha.com/article/284453-tesla-motors-ceo-discusses-q2-201...

All I can find there is the trandcript of Elon's remarks. Is there an actual audio link of the Q&A? Please post it if you have it.

Audio and shareholder letter are here:
http://ir.teslamotors.com or http://ir.teslamotors.com/eventdetail.cfm?EventID=99574
Transcript above is a bit off in some places.

Based on the 10 per week increase stated in call to reach 5K units, they would need to start ~32 weeks before end of year (not counting down time).
@14 weeks 1050 units
@20 weeks 2100 units
@24 weeks 3000 units
@28 weeks 4060 units
@32 weeks 5280 units

Daxz, I would not take that "10 per week" at face value. The increase is most probably not linear, more like exponential. When starting at 10, then going to 20, 30, 40 is each a remarkable step. And Elon did (I guess: deliberately) not state that they would increase by 10 every week. More like: We'll increase by 10 when we are satisfied with the process so far. The step from 10 to 20 may take a couple of weeks actually. But then again, when you are already at a rate of 200 per week, there is probably no use in waiting another week before increasing to 210. Keep in mind that at 400 units/week they already have the targeted 20,000 units/year.

What I want to say is: Elon wanted to illustrate with some concrete numbers, but I would not take these numbers literally and apply a formula to extrapolate the time for 5K units.

It would be nice to know the battery pack preference of the P order holders. If most hold to the standard pack then the <1000 P's have a better chance of getting a car in 2012.

US
S 249 (March 23, 2011)
P 3,446 (March 25, 2011)
R 218 (January 2011)

http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-reservation-tally

joefiorelli, I don't really get the logic in your argument, but you can get an idea of forum members' battery pack preferences here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/which-battery-300-230-or-160

There seems to be a strong tendency towards the 300 pack (though I suspect that some of them will turn to 230 when the time comes to put actual money on the table), and there are also some folks already decided to go with the 160 pack. At least from today's perspective, and among the members of this forum, the 230 pack is by far the option with the least support.

Interesting. If a very small percentage of customers opt for the 230. Tesla might decide to not offer a middle pack in future years.

@Volker.B, I think you are right - when it's time for us all to actually order our cars, some of the folks wanting the 300mi battery, will back off and get the 230mi battery.

Seeing the price rolled up with other options, delivery charges and taxes, (and no immediate $7,500 rebate), will be a shocker. The easiest way to get the price down substantially is to order a smaller battery.

Your right, most "say" they want a 300 pack:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/5690-Poll-on-battery-size.

but I agree with above post that the total price "out the door" will make many people drop back to the 240/160. If that happens and the first 4000-4500 are S, P-240 and P-300 packs, then there maybe room for the low P 160 packs at yearend …. if this does not happen then I don't see many P-160 pack reservation holders getting their cars in 2012 given what was said in the last investor call:

"maybe we will throw in a few 160 packs in December."

Sorry, 230 pack not 240 above ...

I am P# 4510 and planning on a 300mile pack
I spoke with a store rep who estimated delivery around Oct/Nov 2012
And yes, I understand they don't know much more about this than we do
Just offering my small amount of insight

The first questions that have to be answered: how many beta cars will be produced? when will the last beta car be ready for testing?

Next, how long will beta testing last? I'm assuming that beta testing includes crash and safety testing, functional testing of all important systems, endurance testing in varying climate and weather conditions, final performance testing, and overall system testing under actual user/driving conditions. Some of these tests can be conducted in parallel if enough beta cars are available.

At the same time vehicle tests are being conducted for betas, the production environment must be finalized, fully implemented and tested/debugged.

In addition, the results of beta testing will result in (hopefully) small tweaks to the production version of the Model S. Supply chains must be finalized, QA/QC must be established, etc.

Can all of this (and probably a lot more that I've left out) be accomplished over the next 8 months? If so, production could commence by 1 June 2012. Personally, that's very aggressive, but Tesla may alrahead be ahead of the curve in some of the testing/production steps. I hope so.

Anyone who takes the factory tour (I cannot attend) should ask a lot of questions and report back. If the production line is comings together, the Model S just might be on the road by mid-summer.

Volker.Berlin,

you should really try to get license plate B-AT 300!

Great idea. I was already thinking about license plates. B-EV would be nice but will probably be hard to get -- and a little bit too platitudinous (nice word, looked it up). B-US, B-IG and B-MW are very popular here, but irrelevant in my case. I did not think of B-AT before, but I'll have to decide on the battery first. B-AT 160 may be less spectacular... ;-)

I thought I heard or read that the head of Tesla manufacturing is planning to have the production line finalized around April 1. But that doesn't mean that production will begin at that time.

David,

1st April sounds plausible to me. Can you link the source?

Several times a number of 300 cars was mentioned to come off a new line, before the bugs are worked out. And that number usually is put in context with an experienced car manufacturer and not-so-drastic technology shifts (e.g. first model with hybrid drive train). Opposed to that, Tesla is starting its first production line at all, with a car that is like no other ever built before (as we all hope).

Running the production line from April 1st to - lets say - June 1st would allow to produce a number of "release candidate" cars and work on these bugs. Tesla probably targets to stay well under 300 RCs since this is quite an invest.
I assume that "real production" has to start early in June, as the first customers expect to take delivery in July.

Several times a number of 300 cars was mentioned to come off a new line, before the bugs are worked out. (VolkerP)

Maybe I should be glad that I cannot afford a Signature, after all... :-P

I am Signature Reservation 249.

My Tesla rep said I can anticipate delivery by mid to late April 2012.

So, "production line finalized at April 1st" is equivalent to "All tests finished, car production running and producing US signature cars."? Great!


X Deutschland Site Besuchen