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Projected Delivery Dates

Based on announced 5000 unit production run* from June 2012 to December 2012 (avg. 833 per month): June/July for R & S reservations = first 1,666 cars; Aug rest of 230-300mi packs = 2,500 cars; Sept 160mi packs up to P 833; Oct 160mi packs up to P 1,666; Nov/Dec 160mi packs up to P 2500.

Of course the sequence numbers we all have are bogus since no one knows what the drop out rate will be at the time of delivery (it would be nice if they gave us an ETA delivery date now (based on real data) or did a “re-sequencing” of reservation numbers.

P.S. the fact that the larger packs got moved to the front of the line really burns me since I hold P 469 and this policy was not announced up-front. Still, I can’t wait …

* http://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2011/03/tesla-sets-price-production-plan...

I heard/read somewhere that ~80 betas would be produced, in the NUMMI factory (the alphas were hand-made offsite by subcontractors for about $1 million each). So the betas will also be the near-final stage of refining tooling and processes.

michiganmodels,

when did the Tesla rep said that? If it's one year old info, it may not hold much value.

There is an interesting post over in the Netherlands section of this forum. The comments were made in the context of the October 1 Freemont event, so the information can be considered recent:

[A Tesla representative said that] Specs, pricing etc will be expected around the summer of 2012. I earlier got information that the signatures for Europe will be delivered at the start of 2013. (Han-Paul)
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/netherlands?page=1

I may be wrong but I seem to remember that at some point options and prices were announced to be published this (2011) summer, at least for the US. Anyway, 6 months in advance should be plenty of time to make decisions, but it means that we will have to wait another year from now for this information. And it is probably unrealistic to hope that anyone in Europe receives their Model S still in 2012.

If I get mine by this time next year (P-4559), I will squeal like a little girl. Here's hoping though.

@Nicu - I was told at the Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder meeting in May of this year.

@michiganmodels - was the rep you mentioned a sales rep or someone from the company who might actually have some insight into the status of production preparations?

The April, 2012 is the most optimistic I've read, and as much as I'd love to see it happen, I'm skeptical.

@Sofiauthor -

It was Dustin Krause (I believe that is his last name) manager of the Chicago Store and another manager from the Colorado store (his name escapes me).

I'm cautiously optimistic. However, I have a feeling Tesla wants to get the Signature Series out in Q2 of 2012, so they can finally book the reservation deposits as revenue. We'll see...

@michiganmodels -- I was on the Fisker list for about three years before deciding that the Model S was a much better option for me and a better car overall. As a result of my time on the Fisker list, I'm a bit jaded. They missed three implied delivery dates over two years.

I know Fisker is not Tesla, and I do think Tesla does many things better. They're a more mature company. But they, like Fisker, are stingy with information when it comes to folks who have put down serious money to buy their product (I'm a signature series customer, #422). For example, scan the Questions forum -- most questions posed have not been answered by Tesla, and if delivery is only six months away, Tesla certainly has most answers at this point.

I understand that Tesla does not want to miss an announced production start date, so they keep that information proprietary in case it slips. But other info (e.g., options, hard pricing, colors, etc.) should be available if we're only six months out.

Your comment about the company wanting to book revenue in 2Q12 makes a lot of sense, but if that's the case, why don't we know a lot more about the production version of the Model S at this point?

The lack of info says to me that an April 1st production start is bogus. I truly do hope I'm wrong.

@Sofiauthor - Glad to see you made the switch. I can't give you the details, so I apologize in advance. Living in Michigan, I can tell you this: you made the right choice switching to Tesla from Fisker. If nothing else, you will see the difference between a vertically integrated company that is developing its own technology and partnering with Toyota, Dailmer, and Panasonic compared to a company that outsourced the most vital components and technology(ies) necessary for a high quality, high performance EV. Again, I don't mean to sound cryptic, but I knew in January 2011 that Fisker would not meet it's 2nd and 3rd "drop dead deliveries dates." And I know this today: Fisker will not deliver near the quality product to justify its price tag.

I'm remaining cautiously optimistic on a April delivery date for Signature Series reservation holders for this reason: during the August conference call, Elon Mush eluded to another agreement with Toyota. He said he couldn't go into the details, but the deal would be big. The exact quote is: "And we've also signed the $100 million deal with Toyota. We're actually in discussions with them for a deal that is in order of 90 or larger than that." My speculation is this: Toyota will be involved in the manufacturing process with Tesla for Toyota (RAV4) vehicles and Tesla vehicles (Model S, Model X, etc.) as there partnership continues to grow. This is a very good thing for future Tesla and Toyota EV owners. If Toyota could turn the NUMMI plant around with the TPS when GM was at the helm in just over a year - it had the fewest defects per hundred than any plant in the US or Japan. The Alphas were built by hand, the Betas are using the same production processes as the production vehicles we will be driving. And I firmly believe Toyota is working with Tesla.

Again, this is my speculation. But, I believe Tesla is under promising and setting itself up to over deliver. Unlike Fisker that promised dropped dead delivery dates and had much less control of it's production schedule and technology, Tesla has a firm(er) understanding of its production capabilities. And Toyota has a huge interest to ensure Tesla can seamlessly manufacture a complete EV car, not just the EV power trains. In other words, (like Apple Computer with software and Hardware), Toyota understands the quality of the product comes from a seamless integration of EV technology and the automobile.

I know your jaded, and you should be. However, Fisker never invited you to their plant 6 months prior to delivery to view the goods :-)

Again, it's my speculation. I do not know anymore more (regarding Tesla) than the information available. But, I believe in Toyota's production system. I've watched GM fail to adopt it, which contributed to its demise. And I believe in Tesla. I'd go as far as saying anyone that drives a Roadster, will to.

If you have not had a chance to listen to this, you'll find it interesting:
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/403/nummi

@michiganmodels --

Thanks for the insight -- very interesting, indeed. I'm relatively new to Tesla culture, so I'm playing catch-up. If, in fact, Tesla is "under promising and setting itself up to over deliver" I'll be a very happy customer.

I wasn't aware that the Model S betas are actually beingmanufactured at the NUMMI plant (as opposed to custom assembled in a jury-rigged manner). That means that Tesla is debugging production processes right now. That's very encouraging. A Toyota/Tesla 'partnership' is even more encouraging, and if, as you say, there's more to it than the $100M deal, you've got my attention. Having owned a number of Lexuses over the years, I know Toyota understands quality and production processes.

Enjoyed the Ira Glass piece. Thx for the pointer. Makes you wonder why the taxpayers bailed out GM to the tune of $30B.

Let's both hope it's April!

Sofla

@michiganmodels: Brilliant! I think some great points are being made here.

I have a feeling the October 1st event could be a prime opportunity for Tesla to share some of this information with us, yeah?

They do keep going on about how unforgettable it's gonna be, right?
#hoping

The deal with Toyota could an order of magnitude larger than the $100M one. That's what they said.

I have a feeling the October 1st event could be a prime opportunity for Tesla to share some of this information with us, yeah? (Brad Holt)

Precisely my thought. It would make sense to hold back the key information Soflauthor (like all of us) is missing, until some major press event. Revealing the Betas to the public will lend a lot of additional credibility to any other announcements they have to make.

And in turn, any additional information announced at that event will make the revelation of the Betas an even bigger bang. That October 1st will create repercussions in all kinds of media that may dramatically increase the brand awareness for Tesla around the globe.

Also, publishing prices and options on October 1st would still kind of deliver on the promise that this information would be available "this summer".

We are currently working on final pricing and options for Model S, including the Signature Series. We expect to have updates on Model S pricing worldwide this summer. (George Blankenship, March 7, 2011)
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/quick-update-model-s

"in order of 90 more than that" is not good English. "an order of 90 more than that" would be. But it's ambiguous -- it could be short for "90%" or "90X". If the latter, that's $9 billion.

If something like that is in the works, "amazing" doesn't begin to cover it.

Brian, it's good to know that this ambiguous statement confuses you just as much as me. If you like you could try and listen to the original audio, maybe you can discern what was actually said:
http://ir.teslamotors.com/eventdetail.cfm?eventid=99574

Hi Guys,

Do you think it was a mere coincidence that Toyota issued a press release just two days after Elon's "order of magnitude" statement in which they emphasized that the RAV4 EV would be built at "Toyota's Woodstock, Ontario Production Facility", and that "Tesla to Ship Electric Powertrains from California"? It takes a helva lot of powertrains to get to $ 1billion. ;-)

Toyota and Tesla Announce Decision to Build RAV4 Electric Vehicle at Toyota's Woodstock, Ontario Production Facility

It seems my link in the previous posting doesn't work.

Perhaps this link will work:

http://pressroom.toyota.com/releases/toyota+tesla+build+rav4+ev+woodstoc...

I just listened to the clip. He definitely says "an order of magnitude". SO, what this would mean is that at the time of that call he was working one deal with Toyota for $100M, while simultaneously working a deal for an order of magnitude (basically adding a zero, if I'm not mistaken) larger: $1B.

Somebody check my math here, but I think that's right.

@Larry Chanin - It's all speculation at this point.

But, I'm bored. So, here's my speculation. Lets say Toyota wanted to convert an existing product line to 100% electric. For arguments sake, lets say Toyota wanted to make an EV Corrolla. Why not partner with a company that is an industry leader in EV power trains and why not manufacture the EV Corrolla at your former plant that produced 6,000 UNITS PER WEEK as recently as a year ago? That is one way to bring a relatively affordable EV to market. Is this speculation: Yes. However, that is one scenario that is an order of magnitude larger than 100 Million dollars.

However, to make this post germane to the thread: if Tesla and Toyota's partnership includes a collaborate effort on the manufacturing process for all known EVs (RAV4 and Model S), I believe it is possible the projected delivery dates will begin sometime in Q2 2012.

We'll have to continue to wait and see....

@michiganmodels

Thanks for the response. Yes, much of what is discussed on this forum has a large dose of speculation. ;-)

So you don't think that the timing and wording of the Toyota press release wasn't specifically designed to moderate Elon's remarks?

Thanks.

Larry

@Larry Chanin - No. I do not think the wording was specifically designed to moderate or temper Elon's remarks. If Elon was eluding to an agreement that would have a dramatic and immediate financial impact, it would require an SEC filing (re: 100 MM agreement). The Canadian manufacturing announcement does not meet this criteria. For this reasoning alone, Elon could not mention it publicly prior to a formal agreement and SEC filing. I believe (re: speculate) Tesla/Toyota will announce another agreement that has a relatively large number tied to it mid Q4. Why mid Q4? Beginning Q4 is the October 1st event and end of Q4 is the release of the Model X. It would conclude the year perfectly to 1) Show the Model S is production ready (Beta event) 2) Announce another Toyota agreement to, once again, demonstrate to Wall Street Tesla has multiple revenue streams and 3) introduce the Model X (demonstrate Tesla will have multiple product lines within 18 to 24 months).

And for 2012? 1) January 2012 - Reveal the Production Candidate at the NAIAS 2) Deliver the Model S to reservation holders. 3) Win 2012 Car of the Year.

Looks like michiganmodels has it pretty much nailed down! Sounds like a pretty solid plan to me.

@michiganmodels

"Lets say Toyota wanted to convert an existing product line to 100% electric. For arguments sake, lets say Toyota wanted to make an EV Corrolla. Why not partner with a company that is an industry leader in EV power trains and why not manufacture the EV Corrolla at your former plant that produced 6,000 UNITS PER WEEK as recently as a year ago? That is one way to bring a relatively affordable EV to market. Is this speculation: Yes. However, that is one scenario that is an order of magnitude larger than 100 Million dollars."

I suppose any billion dollar deal would be tempting, but to you really think that it's in Elon's DNA to turn Tesla Motors into Tesla Automotive parts? ;-)

Larry

@Larry wrote: I suppose any billion dollar deal would be tempting, but do you really think that it's in Elon's DNA to turn Tesla Motors into Tesla Automotive parts? ;-)

In the short term, Tesla and Elon have to think like a young public company -- drive revenue and become profitable, quickly. In addition, anything that Tesla does that broadens the market for EVs can only help Tesla. By helping Toyota make a more rapid entry into the EV market, Tesla indirectly legitimizes the market and only helps itself in the longer run.

@michiganmodels' scenario makes sense, but then again, that doesn't mean that the players will act sensibly.

@Larry Chanin - Do you happen to work for GM or Ford? I'm kidding of course :-)

I asked because your question presupposes that manufacturing automotive parts and automobiles are mutually exclusive events. In fact, companies such as Toyota (and Apple Computer, again with hardware and software) believe it is essential to manufacture high-quality components in order to manufacture high quality end-user products. GM and Ford went so far as to spin off subsidiary companies: Delphi and Visteon (for many reasons, of course) to distance itself from its automotive components division. GM and Ford operate as if purchasing and installing the components are INDEPENDENT from the manufacturing process and do not effect the quality of the end-user product. I believe Elon Musk and Toyota share the belief that, in order, to build a high quality car, you need high quality components.

How do we know this? Lets go back to the TAL story (I have other sources, but this is most direct):
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/403/nummi
Transcript: http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/403/transcript

Specifically, read (or listen to) Frank Langfitt and Ernie Schaefer's quotes at the 38:00 mark:
"The team concept stressed continuous improvement. If the team got a shipment of parts that didn't fit, they were supposed to alert their bosses, who would then go to suppliers and engineers to fix the problem. All the departments in the company worked together.

You had asked the question earlier, what's different when you walk into the NUMMI plant? Well, you can see a lot of things different. But the one thing you don't see is the system that supports the NUMMI plant. I don't think, at that time, anybody understood the large nature of this system.

General Motors was a kind of throw it over the wall organization. Each department, we were very compartmentalized, and you design that vehicle, and you'd throw it over the wall to the manufacturing guys."

Tesla and Toyota are already developing this "system." For example, the Roadster had HVAC challenges/problems. Tesla is now addressing this with the HVAC system from the Toyota Prius. Is Toyota an automotive parts company for doing this? Of course not.

Toyota needs Tesla and Tesla needs Toyota. Toyota needs Tesla (and Panasonic) for the technology, parts, and processes missing when it originally failed with the RAV4. Tesla needs Toyota for its automotive manufacturing know-how (and capital, of course :-) ). Toyota will not sit idle if Tesla has an HVAC (or any other manufacturing/component) issue because Toyota does not want to "throw the problem over the wall." Stated differently, Toyota does not want to experience any problems when it manufactures its EV RAV4 (and future EV vehicles).

Ultimately this partnership is to develop high-quality, no-compromise EVs, which is Tesla and Elon's mission. To answer your question: I do not know if it's in "Elon's DNA." but, I do know this partnership and approach is consistent with Tesla's mission and Elon Musk's comments of producing high-quality products.

I apologize for any typos. I pounded this out on my iPhone :-)

All that on your iPhone? By that alone I'm impressed.

I just know the more I think about these things, the more excited I get about what kinds of shiny new information might be announced on October 1st!

@michiganmodels

Hi,

Thanks for your impressive and helpful response.

"@Larry Chanin - Do you happen to work for GM or Ford? I'm kidding of course :-)

I asked because your question presupposes that manufacturing automotive parts and automobiles are mutually exclusive events."

I know you are kidding, but since I am new to this forum perhaps I should relieve your curiousity a bit regarding whether I have an agenda. Like you I am a Tesla enthusiast (albeit not as knowledgeable) and have provided a deposit to reserve a Model S. My wife an I will be traveling to Fremont and our tour and ride reservation is on Sunday. If you plan on attending we would very much like to meet you. Feel free to contact me directly at lfchanin@verizon.net.

Returning to my innocent question, no I don't presuppose that manufacturing automotive parts and automobiles are mutually exclusive for mature enterprises. It just seemed to me that if a fledging company such as Tesla started off with a billion dollar contract to furnish parts to Toyota, then by the shear disproportionate weight of that transaction and focus it would de facto become an automotive parts supplier rather than an automobile company.

As you know, many of Tesla's detractors continue to express the opinion that Tesla's only hope of viability is to be bought out by one of the automotive giants and supply parts. In my view that would be a terrible waste of talent and vision. Likewise, if Tesla were to become seduced into diluting its focus away from designing and building ground-breaking electric cars, that would be a shame. Should Tesla continue to pursue collaborations and supply parts? Sure, as you point out that is a necessary approach for a new company, but my only point is the need to maintain a prudent balance recognizing that designing building cars needs to remain their primary mission, at least in the near term.

Thanks again for sharing your knowledge.

By the way, I think that you may have me confused with another forum member, since I never asked "what's different when you walk into the NUMMI plant."

Larry

@michiganmodels

Please disregard my last sentence above, I now see that you were quoting from a reference.

Larry

@Larry - I was 100% kidding. And I was 100% poking fun at GM and Ford. I try not to be sarcastic or snarky (and never criticize other members); it's too difficult to discern.

I'm very encouraged that there are reservation holders such as yourself (re: those that jumped in before learning every waking detail). In all honesty, the production capbailities and product mean nothing without the demand.

As far as October 1st, I would love to meet all of you. However, I am extraordinarily disappointed that I can not attend. I'm in an Executive Masters Program at the University of Michigan. The program is for working executives, which requires on-campus "weekends" every six weeks. And my next on-campus session is when? You guessed it: September 29th through October 2nd in Ann Arbor. I thought it would be unbelievably cool to meet everyone (it's probably the only time that could happen). Anyway, maybe I can Skype with someone there :-)


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