Based on announced 5000 unit production run* from June 2012 to December 2012 (avg. 833 per month): June/July for R & S reservations = first 1,666 cars; Aug rest of 230-300mi packs = 2,500 cars; Sept 160mi packs up to P 833; Oct 160mi packs up to P 1,666; Nov/Dec 160mi packs up to P 2500.
Of course the sequence numbers we all have are bogus since no one knows what the drop out rate will be at the time of delivery (it would be nice if they gave us an ETA delivery date now (based on real data) or did a “re-sequencing” of reservation numbers.
P.S. the fact that the larger packs got moved to the front of the line really burns me since I hold P 469 and this policy was not announced up-front. Still, I can’t wait …
* http://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2011/03/tesla-sets-price-production-plan...
Larry did you mean test drive on Sat Oct 1 not Sunday 10/2?
@joefiorelli@gma...
"Larry did you mean test drive on Sat Oct 1 not Sunday 10/2?"
Hi Joe,
No, I meant Sunday October 2nd.
The response to Tesla's invitations was much greater than they expected and they added a second day. To minimize impacting out-of-towners who had already made airline and hotel reservations for October 1st Tesla for the most part has confirmed reservations for Californians for Sunday and non-locals for Saturday. My wife and I had a schedule conflict for Saturday and Tesla accommodated us by confirming our reservation for Sunday.
Larry
@michiganmodels
"@Larry - I was 100% kidding. And I was 100% poking fun at GM and Ford. I try not to be sarcastic or snarky (and never criticize other members); it's too difficult to discern."
True, its very difficult to discern humor from sarcasism on these forums.
I'm pleased that Ford and GM appear to be succeeding since I have yet to purchase a foreign car. However, I must admit to a love / hate relationship with GM that dates back to their corporate cannibalism of the EV-1.
I'm sorry you can't make it to Fremont, but if you're ever in the Sarasota, Florida area you have my email address, look me up.
Larry
I am UK based and on 'My Tesla' it says:SIGNATURE MODEL S #13
what could that mean as approx. delivery date?
vouteb;
Sometime before Jan. 1, 2015.
;)
Great, will 'new' specs by then!
:)
@vouteb: If you were a US S holder, that would likely mean late Q2 2012, based on some postings in this thread lately. Unclear how long it will take them to adapt that to the particular reqs in GB.
I propose that we conduct a "release date" contest. We all guess an actual release date for the first production Model S to a paying customer (i.e., not Elon or any members of the Board or a major investor). I suppose that would be to Model S sig series customer #1.
I realize that we have very little information to go on, but whatever. As the dates are guessed, we'll see whether there's any consensus.
Cut-off date for your guess is the earlier of the day before Tesla makes any official announcement or 1 Jan 2012.
Here goes: Given the complexities of getting a production line operational along with product roll-out logistics, I think 2Q12 is not likely. My guess: July 25, 2012
July 1, 2012
August 30, 2012
ONE DOLLAR!
June 27, 2012
I'll be optimistic: April 15, 2012
I'll make my guess on a date after I see the Fremont factory on Oct 1. Is there a cutoff date for these guesses?
@DavidM: Since I started this, I suppose I can define the rules :)
As I stated in an earlier post:
Cut-off is the day before Tesla makes a formal announcement about the delivery date for the Models S or 1 January 2012, whichever is earlier.
Of course it will be April 1st (Fools Day), 2012
My bet is July 4th, 2012. Obviously, already an important date.
Hope to still receive my EU lhd general production before end of 2012.
April 7th, 2012 for S#1 delivery to customer....
My logic (read SWAG) for the progression on production:
Average Monthly Agregate Allocation
Daily Rate Total Production
April 5 150 150 Signature
May 5 150 300 Signature
June 10 300 600 Signature
July 10 300 900 R300
August 20 600 1500 P300
Sept 20 600 2100 P300
October 30 900 3000 R/P230
Nov 30 900 3900 P230
Dec 40 1200 5100 P160
2012 Total = 5100
And finally hitting the average of 50/day necessary to make 20,000 cars a year in Jan 2013.
July 18, 2012
I'll say June 8th.
Hope to see some of you on Oct 1st. Yahoooooo…. my drive time is 5pm !!!!
I wanted to take April 1, 2012 but I was not "allowed" to post for at least three times, so the spot is now taken. So I'll take a risk in being the most bullish, and say March 15, 2012.
I'll go for June 15th.
Larry;
Your post contains two egregious errors:
s/b "fledgling" and "sheer". ;) ;p
Basically I think Toyoda of Toyota is too smart to turn Tesla into a subsidiary. That would be killing the goose to get the golden egg, a known failing strategy. I suspect Daimler, fresh from its debacle with Crysler, is equally loathe to attempt to absorb a company with an alien culture and problems.
JMHO.
June 19th 2012 here. Just cos it's my birthday.
I'll say June 1st, simply because it's my birthday! :)
We don't have enough "date contest" entries to draw any conclusions about consensus yet, but here are the 14 guesses to-date presented as a simple chart (I hope this graphics post works:)
Because it is supposed to be "early 2012" I say April 15. That leaves enough time for Beta-testing before actual release.
I notice in the June 2011 prospectus/update that no mention is made of Roadster Two, the in-house version. I wonder when a determination about that will occur. My impression was that it would see the light of day around 2014.
And I'll guess April 14, just to beat Timo to the launch. ;P
:D
I think BruceR has the basics. I however think the first will be delivered on May 31st with a ramp up have as slow as BruceR projects. :(
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I expect to finalize my order in the coming weeks (#1154, in Belgium), but I'm still not sure about which color to choose... I was pretty much settled on...