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Projected Delivery Dates

Based on announced 5000 unit production run* from June 2012 to December 2012 (avg. 833 per month): June/July for R & S reservations = first 1,666 cars; Aug rest of 230-300mi packs = 2,500 cars; Sept 160mi packs up to P 833; Oct 160mi packs up to P 1,666; Nov/Dec 160mi packs up to P 2500.

Of course the sequence numbers we all have are bogus since no one knows what the drop out rate will be at the time of delivery (it would be nice if they gave us an ETA delivery date now (based on real data) or did a “re-sequencing” of reservation numbers.

P.S. the fact that the larger packs got moved to the front of the line really burns me since I hold P 469 and this policy was not announced up-front. Still, I can’t wait …


I meant half as fast.

Went to the Milan store last week, nice sales rep, offered us a drive on the roadster Sport through center Milan :-)

He told us as to latest info the European delivery will not be before March 2013, first all 5000 us productions have to be deliverd and they want to be sure to have these running (close to the factory) for a long enough time before shipping arround the globe.
So once 5000 deliverd they are going to use the production of the 20000 and divide that world wide (including new US general production)
I'm afraid we are in for quite a wait :-(

On the upper side, I'm still hoping the local rep was not that well informed and will hope to get more info on october 1st!

My estimate: August 21st

I want to say CES Jan 10th is my overly optimistic guess for first Signature delivery, but most likely they'll bring a Beta for public drooling.

Then my next guess would be tax day, April 15th since most states don't charge for tax on an EV purchase and it lines up with the stated 5000 forecast for 2012.

FYI, there is a Daimler keynote at CES this year:

Food for thought on what CES is turning into for the auto world.

My guess is May 10th

Only 18 guesses to date. Too few (keep 'em coming) to draw conclusions about the predictive ability of crowds, but FYI, here's a summary:

Note that the median date (half of all guesses above, half below) is currently June 17, 2012

Getting back to the start of this thread, here is my update for first deliveries in the USA:

S/R = 6/8/12 through July
300 pack = Aug
230 pack = 11/15
160 pack = maybe 12/28 but good chance of moving into early 2013

I hope I'm being a pessimist, but July 30, 2012.

I've got my allocation number but not sure if this is a worldwide or regional allocation.

At some point a Tesla rep told me the estimate was that signatures would go to Canada about 3 months after the first were delivered in the US. They mentioned August, but I don't know if they meant it for US or Canadian deliveries. Being an optimist I am hoping for mid-august 2012 for delivery of a Canadian Signature series car. Call it august 15th if you like. 3 months earlier would have signatures shipping around May 15th in the US.

Do I win anything if either guess is closest? :D


yes, I hereby invite the victorious better to a test ride in an EU general production Model S in spring of 2013. Free accommodation. Plus free L2 charging if you bring your EV. Plus frenzy +200kph driving on a no-speed-limit stretch of German Autobahn near my home :-).

So everybody get a go and give soflauthor a shot!

@cablechewer: Do I win anything if either guess is closest? :D

Yes. The pleasure of knowing that you outguessed the rest of us :)

Keep your 'educated' guesses coming.

Interestingly, with the above guesses, the average and the mean are converging -- avg: 7-Jun-2012, mean: 11-Jun-2012

VolkerP - what part of Germany are you in? I am often in the Munich to Ellwangen part of Germany, and would actually pay to be able to let a Model S stretch its legs sometime in 2013!

June 1


I hope I can offer you to stroll the A81 south of Stuttgart in 2013.

That would be great. If you happen to come to the upstate NY region, I'd be happy to get you a nice long ride (maybe not as thrilling) through the Finger Lakes region in early 2013 (before you get a chance at your own!).

You're another Finger Lakes region buyer, Leofingal? We should form a club. :-) I'm in Ithaca and will probably be getting the first Tesla in a large radius, since I'm currently Model S Sig #101....

Here's the latest distribution of dates:

The mean delivery date estimate is currently June 4, 2012.

Soflauthor thanks for doing the charts … fun to watch!

Does anyone else have a model on when the P's roll out?

Can I have July 4th 2012 please...

Wow ... still time to order and get in on the 7,000* 2012 delivery!!! The "reservation-tally" thread is at 6,563.

There may be hope for us 160 pack's in 2012 after all.

*"How many Model S units will Tesla produce each year?
Tesla plans to produce 20,000 Model S units annually. In 2012, Tesla expects to produce around 5,000 to 7,000 vehicles as the Tesla Factory reaches its planned production capacity."

When I placed my S reservation at Seattle store in May I was told US Sig's would be about a year - add 3 months for Canadian Sig's puts me in August. I lost my job August 3rd, so I'm going to use that date as my delivery target. My number moved up to S73 from S77, so that may help...

(Fingers crossed for new job AND new car)


I hope an even better job comes along….

First time I ever heard of someone getting an update on their reservation number!

My ultra optimistic guesstimate is February 14! Look for the heads up, get your finances ready after the october 1 event!

Here's the latest summary of dates for delivery of the first production vehicle.

The median date is now June 8, 2012. Average is June 4, 2012.

Sorry, used old chart by mistake. Here's latest:

The median date is June 8, 2012. Average is June 4, 2012.

You just posted the same chart twice :)

@Nicu: You're right. I inadvertently deleted all earlier charts and replaced them with the most recent. Apologies. I'll correct the error going forward.

The last chart posted does accurately reflect the delivery date guesses to date.

Wish there was a way to edit existing posts so I could correct the problem, but there doesn't seem to be one at this forum.

as gjunky took july 4th already, i'll say july 14th.

I took July 4th as independence day for oil.

At least for that first Model S owner.

April 2nd.

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