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Projected Delivery Dates

Based on announced 5000 unit production run* from June 2012 to December 2012 (avg. 833 per month): June/July for R & S reservations = first 1,666 cars; Aug rest of 230-300mi packs = 2,500 cars; Sept 160mi packs up to P 833; Oct 160mi packs up to P 1,666; Nov/Dec 160mi packs up to P 2500.

Of course the sequence numbers we all have are bogus since no one knows what the drop out rate will be at the time of delivery (it would be nice if they gave us an ETA delivery date now (based on real data) or did a “re-sequencing” of reservation numbers.

P.S. the fact that the larger packs got moved to the front of the line really burns me since I hold P 469 and this policy was not announced up-front. Still, I can’t wait …

* http://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2011/03/tesla-sets-price-production-plan...

Yes, contracts can be canceled; especially if there is an "out" clause in the contract. But there's always a price to pay.

For a loan, it can only be canceled or "called" as laid out in the contract.

Link below mentions one shift and 83 production Model S's per day. If you extended x 5days x 26wks (june to dec) you would hit the announced 20K per year run rate. Having seen the production facility, I can see where they could do 3 shifts x 7days and hit 60K units per year ... TSLA shorts better cover fast!!!

*http://www.autoobserver.com/2011/10/tesla-wows-with-model-s-rides-factory-tour.html?utm_medium=Email&utm_source=ExactTarget&utm_campaign=%202011_10_newsletter

Joe,

Aren't we getting a little ahead of ourselves when we start talking about 60k units per year? ;-)

Tesla is bleeding red ink right now. It is important for them to carefully synchronize production with demand. Tesla can't really afford a conventional ad campaign and must rely on less expensive and perhaps less effective means of generating business. Right now reservations have been good, but nevertheless the entire reservation list with no attrition is barely a six month backlong.

Don't get me wrong, I think that after these cars start getting released and get favorable reviews by auto journalists that demand will certainly pick up. However, multiple shifts probably won't be needed for some time. The worst thing that could happen for a startup in the red would be to start building inventory.

Larry

Larry, they have stated during one of the earnings reports that the investment for 20k / y / shift has already been done. It was obviously a bit more expensive to do so, but a risk / payoff analysis told them this is the best way to go. They may not need it. But if they do, they could ramp up production really quickly.

For now, orders are mainly from US. Think what will happen when they will start advertising aggressively in Asia. Those people are still passionate by cars (in opposition to US and Europe), become millionaires by the millions each year, are also fascinated by sci-fi, new tech etc. In many places they want to show their social status even if they have to suffer financially. In Japan, the eco culture is very developed. The buzz will spread like fire and I think in 2014 they will strive to produce those 60k cars with a backlog hard to imagine today (at least by americans and europeans - we forgot the excitement of cars, of a booming economy, we look down on luxury cars for moral and social BS, etc.)

Larry,

I agree they will build to order not to fill inventory ... my point was that at full production they will print money!!!

Hi Nicu,

So do I understand you correctly, it is your opinion that by 2014 Tesla will be striving to run three shifts mainly to accommodate foreign demand?

Larry

Yes, that's what I think. They will have orders in excess of production capacity of 60k cars per year (probably the capacity is 60k for both Model S and Model X).

It takes however some time (in this case two-three years I think) for the buzz (meme) to spread. They actually spread like virus, with exponential growth for a while, until a wall is hit (size of the market, realization that the buzz was not founded - I think this is not the case with Tesla, deep economic crisis, 50c for a gallon of gas LOL, global cooling etc.).

*sigh*
One error I'm seeing here: The cars take the assembly line, NOT THE BATTERIES.

I'm betting there will be three battery assembly lines, one for each type. When the batteries are assembled, THEN they get installed in the cars.

Cascade is the same: Tesla starts with just the 300 mile packs, then starts building the 230 packs as well, then the 160 packs last.

No, they can have inventories of all three batteries and install whichever one is required for the specific VIN. Just like installing either a solid roof or a pano roof. Just another option.

Why would the assembly of the different battery packs be so different? From what I understand, the 160 and 230 mile packs use the same cells but just different numbers of them. I assume that means you can almost build a 160 mile pack and either leave it a 160 mile pack or just add more cells to make it a 230 mile version. There really is no need to have separate assemblies for them. The 300 mile pack is again build the same way but sourced from another bin.

As I see it, it will be easy to build the battery pack to order based on the cars coming down the line. No need to create any kind of inventory.

As to the topic of building the higher capacity packs first: I still don't understand how they will keep customers happy if they give out reservation numbers without asking for a battery size and then build/sell them in a different order? I for one really can't afford the larger pack but would be really upset if Tesla decided to not produce mine (P#3872) when my number is up.

@Valkus

Agree. Tesla will start making 230 mile packs in fall 2012. From that point on, every reservation holders who's turn it is, has the choice to pick either 300 miles, 230 miles, or to exercise his one-time deferral. GP holders wanting 160 miles will either pull their pockets a bit deeper or decide to wait.
Thus, it cannot be said that reservation holders that want the 300 mile pack automatically go in front of 230ers or 160ers.

I've got a question about Signature delivery to Europe
. I asked a similar question at the teslamotorsclub forum but didn't get much information there, so I'll try here:

My main question is, when the delivery of the Signature Model S to Europe will start. There is some information in the blog post by George Blankenship:"A Quick Update on Model S", where he says: "a) After the Model S Signature Series, deliveries for North America will continue with the 300 mile batteries, followed by 230 and 160 options later in

b) Delivery of the European left-hand drive Model S is scheduled to begin in late 2012. In mid-2013 we plan to begin delivering the right-hand drive Model S for Europe and Asia."

I always thought this would mean that Signature delivery includes the Model S Signature for Europe followed by the regular productions cars in the U.S.

But then a tesla rep told me, that the Signature Model S in Europe will not be delivered before a substantial part of the regular Model S for the American market have been manufactured.

I have to admit, that I was rather disappointed about this, because I signed up for a Signature reservation only, to be among the first to get a Model S.

He also told me, that they have not decided yet, in which order the queues for the specific countries are going to be delivered. In Europe there are at least 3 different queues: I'm #14 for Model S Signature in Switzerland, but there seems also to be a separate queue for the U.K. and the rest of Europe.

In a worst case scenario this could mean, that my Model S Signature would not be delivered before all other queues are finished.

Does anybody here know more about how many regular Model S will be built before they start manufacturing the Signature Model S for Europe or in which order the queues for the specific countries will be manufactured?

sven, I do not have any more information than you have. And I am afraid, nobody has at this time.

But then a tesla rep told me, that the Signature Model S in Europe will not be delivered before a substantial part of the regular Model S for the American market have been manufactured.

This has been my understanding all along. I understand that it is disappointing for you as a European Signature reservation holder, but it does make sense and it will probably serve you well: Tesla wants to ensure that they fix the Kinderkrankheiten before they start delivering to foreign markets. As mentioned in another thread, I suspect that this may also be one reason why they currently focus their new stores in the Bay area. They want to have the first cars they sell as close to the factory/headquarters as possible, so that any problems can be fixed quickly and effortlessly. This approach helps Tesla as well as the customers.

He also told me, that they have not decided yet, in which order the queues for the specific countries are going to be delivered. In Europe there are at least 3 different queues: I'm #14 for Model S Signature in Switzerland, but there seems also to be a separate queue for the U.K. and the rest of Europe.

I did not know that, but it seems so make sense to have left-steering and right-steering countries in different queues. Maybe they also make a distinction between EUR-countries and non-EUR-countries, but that's speculation.

distinction between EUR-countries and non-EUR-countries

More likely: EU-countries vs. non-EU-countries.

For those that didn't guess it from the context (I did!)...

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Kinderkrankheiten

"Does anybody here know more about how many regular Model S will be built before they start manufacturing the Signature Model S for Europe or in which order the queues for the specific countries will be manufactured?"

Nobody knows. However, they *have* said that they will get left-hand-drive Signatures to Europe in 2012, so I think you can rely on that. You may not be among the first to get a model S, but you will definitely be among the first in the Old World, and not long after the first, so you'll probably still get the same response from everyone around you. Unless they have just visited California. :-)

From what I saw on Oct. 1st, there will be one assembly line for the Model S. Each of the three batteries will use the SAME battery tray. The 160mi batteries don't fill up the tray. Not sure if the 230s fill it up or not. My point being: when it's time to install the battery, nothing much has to change on the production line. The tray gets installed, and cables connected. Tesla can do 160s and 230s whenever they want.

BUT they need to show profitability sooner than later, and there is more margin in a car with the 300mi battery. More options, higher price, more margin = solid, successful company with a healthy balance sheet. Which means there's money for Model X to stay on schedule, more Tesla stores, charging infrastructure initiatives, and possibly for a second shift for the Model S (to take production to 35,000 cars per year), if demand warrants.

Plus they want to show off their top model for the first independent reviews.

@David M
I think your characterization is correct.

Assuming the size and shape of the tray is indeed consistent, installing the battery should be quick. I can't imagine installing the first battery taking much more time than swapping in a second battery.

http://webarchive.teslamotors.com/display_data/Spec_ModelS_US.pdf
- 1 minute battery swap capability

Given that Canadian deliveries don't start until 2013, including Sigs, I'd be very surprised if EU got theirs any faster than that.

Given that Canadian deliveries don't start until 2013, including Sigs, I'd be very surprised if EU got theirs any faster than that.

And Switzerland isn't even EU... ;-)

"Given that Canadian deliveries don't start until 2013, including Sigs, I'd be very surprised if EU got theirs any faster than that."

that would only be true if US deliveries didn't start until Oct 2012. It has been stated times that Canadian production starts 3 months after US production. Do you know something that would contradict this?

Got an article today. Tesla sold out the 2012 production at 6,500 reservations. Very good news to be overbooked 11 months ahead.

Also sport model at 87,400 and the x unveiled by January... SYDFD AMMV

I remember reading that Canadian deliveries would start in 2013, but I can't put my hands on a link to where I saw that.

that might have been someone's prediction but anything official i have heard from Tesla has always stated that it would start three months after the start of US production. The North American FAQ has always stated this (http://www.teslamotors.com/en_CA/models/faq) and iirc has been reiterated a few times but the facts page does not specify anything about canadian start of production. I am going to assume that the 3 month delay still holds until told otherwise through some official channel (gotta believe ;~)

sorry forgot the link to the facts page ...

http://www.teslamotors.com/en_CA/models/facts

From today's earnings report:

"Our confidence in the progress of both the Model S Beta phase and the Tesla Factory permits us to be more specific in our timing guidance for first customer deliveries. We are on plan to deliver the first Model S vehicles to customers no later than July 2012.
We also recently finalized a long term supply contract with Panasonic for cells used in the Model S, which gives us increased visibility into our variable costs. As a result, we continue to have confidence in our long term target gross margin of 25% for Model S upon realizing the manufacturing efficiencies associated with an annualized sales run rate of 20,000 units."

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/1169219154x0x514425/7...

So May/June delivery of Sigs is not impossible and minimum 25% gross margin is more like a chip company than a car company !!!!

Conference call = no lease for 6 to 12 months .... no 160 packs until late 2012.

Conference Call con't = only few 100 Sigs left/only way to get a MS in 2012 ... wait list may extend through 2013 ... no advertising needed while "production constrained"

intent to sell fully loaded MS in 2012 ... price/package incentives e.g. longer battery warranty for 230/300 packs

Tesla will deploy "Supercharger Stations" capable of 30min 150mi fast recharge.

On the call, Musk said something quite close to: "I think we could ship cars sooner than July if we had lower standards, but we don’t want to rush to market. We want to make the car as perfect as possible."

So...I wouldn't look for greatly accelerated delivery. I'm still liking my June 29 prediction.


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