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Projected Delivery Dates

Based on announced 5000 unit production run* from June 2012 to December 2012 (avg. 833 per month): June/July for R & S reservations = first 1,666 cars; Aug rest of 230-300mi packs = 2,500 cars; Sept 160mi packs up to P 833; Oct 160mi packs up to P 1,666; Nov/Dec 160mi packs up to P 2500.

Of course the sequence numbers we all have are bogus since no one knows what the drop out rate will be at the time of delivery (it would be nice if they gave us an ETA delivery date now (based on real data) or did a “re-sequencing” of reservation numbers.

P.S. the fact that the larger packs got moved to the front of the line really burns me since I hold P 469 and this policy was not announced up-front. Still, I can’t wait …

* http://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2011/03/tesla-sets-price-production-plan...

@gjunky

"I am worried about Elon's remark about producing the higher end cars, with the larger batteries and more options, first. I understand wanting to produce high margin vehicles but TM should not have assigned reservation numbers if they didn't plan to sell the cars in that order.

Following his statement, it would mean that once it is my turn to configure my car and I don't pick enough options (extras), I would be put (further) back in the queue.

Not cool."

I sympathize with your points.

At first I thought that if I didn’t opt for a 300 mile range Model S there was a good chance that would never get my car in my lifetime. I figured that later reservation holders would continually jump in line ahead of me if they opted for the 300 mile range. Then I came across the transcript of the second quarter call-in questions. Here’s an excerpt:

“Elon Musk:
Well we've indicated that before yearend we would have the 230 mile in 2012.

Deepak Ahuja:
Yes, the Signature series, which is the first 1,000, will be the 300 mile range only, because it's kind of like the fully-loaded vehicle. And then thereafter, if you want the option of the 300 or the 230 mile, and at the very end of next year, sort of early December, it's when we'll be able to start making some of the 160 miles (technical difficulty)."

So the way I reconcile their recent statements to their prior statements is that while it is true there might be a higher priority placed on the larger battery pack options, they are still promising that some of the early non-300 range reservations will still be filled before year-end 2012, even some 160 mile reservations.

This may not be much solace to you, but it’s not as grim as I had initially thought.

Larry

I always read it as that's just the production line they'd start first, simplifying on one battery size, then expanding out as they ramp up. I never read it as all 300's always jump up in the queue.

@ckessel

"I always read it as that's just the production line they'd start first, simplifying on one battery size, then expanding out as they ramp up. I never read it as all 300's always jump up in the queue."

You were undoubtedly correct. ;-)

Larry

In the Q3 call, they didn't even suggest an anti-230 bias, after the Signature run; only the 160-milers were singled out for delay. Nonetheless, I fully expect that they will keep the line exclusively producing 300-milers to satisfy the the 300-miler orders of those below some cutoff reservation number (e.g. P2000). Keep the production line simpler and the profit margin up.

I was told that I would be contacted about three months before delivery asking which range and color, etc I would like. Have others reserved a particular range?

@cerjor: No, we're all in the same place, except those with a Signature reservation.

No news here .... 3 months before delivery to make optional decisions has been the original company line. Most 160 packs will be pushed back to 2013.

About deliveries to Europe a Tesla sales rep told me that the first Model S for presenting it to customers and test driving for reservation holders will be in Europe in September 2012

RB;
about the production line, there's less concern about that with the totally robotized system. Completely different models can be interspersed.
Which makes me wonder if the next model Roadster could be mixed in! I'm sure the X will be no problem

re: "totally robotized system" also would imply that any battery pack can be added at any time as well (once TM cherry picks the fully loaded orders). Seems the path TM has chosen befits the share holders but should irk the feds who gave 1/2 B $ for a "mid priced" EV which will cost between 75K and 95K in 2012 (maybe well into 2013).

TM should reconsider the push back of 160 packs and allocate more than "a few" in December 2012. After all, the 160 pack P reservation holders put up their $5,000 too.

According to AutoWeek on October 20, 1011, "Assembly of the first production-prototype body shell began Oct. 17, with the completed car set to roll down the line in November. The first salable cars will be built starting in January or February, Passin said."

http://www.autoweek.com/article/20111020/CARNEWS/111029987#ixzz1dEBYjxP1

@Soflauthor - Just a friendly follow up :-) If you have not read the following, this is confirmation that you (and anyone else) made the correct decision to drop your Fisker reservation and reserve a Model S. I know this does not alleviate your prior concern that Tesla may still miss its delivery date. However, in the +/- 3 months you've been posting, I hope you can see the clear difference between Tesla and Fisker :-)

http://gigaom.com/cleantech/fisker-wont-ramp-up-volume-of-karmas-until-q...

Electric vehicle startup Fisker Automotive has dramatically ramped down production of its first car the Karma in the fourth quarter of 2011, and won’t ramp back up production fully until the second quarter of 2012. That was the word from Fisker’s battery supplier, A123 Systems, in its third quarter earnings call on Wednesday.

I bet it's repercussions from the strikes in Finland.

@jackhub Jan Feb deliveries would be news ... did you pick a delivery date in this thread yet? Last average date was June 8th or so.

I bet they are for stores/crash testing not for Sig deliveries.

@Michiganmodels wrote: Just a friendly follow up :-) If you have not read the following, this is confirmation that you (and anyone else) made the correct decision to drop your Fisker reservation and reserve a Model S. I know this does not alleviate your prior concern that Tesla may still miss its delivery date.

I signed up for a Karma in 2008, with the projection of delivery in mid-2010. At the time I was aware of the Model S as a concept, but I honestly didn't want to wait for it, even though it was a simpler and far more elegant implementation of the EV. I followed the development of both cars, and as the Karma evidenced delay after delay, I assumed (incorrectly, I readily admit) that the Model S would suffer the same fate.

As 2010 became 2011, it became apparent that the Model S was likely to be delivered within a year of my projected Karma delivery date. When the Karma was delayed again, I decided that a few extra months of waiting was well worth it for the Model S. I cancelled the Karma, and signed up with TM.

Now, ironically, it looks like my old Karma production slot won't be delivered until 1Q2013, and that may be optimistic. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if I take delivery of my Model S before I would have taken delivery of the Karma.

I am now convinced, based on milestones already achieved and a factory that is already close to functional, that the Model S will be delivered on time. Making the switch was very good decision, if I do say so myself :)

@Soflauthor - :-)

@joefee68
I think Elon will under promise and over deliver . . . but not by much. He says mid 2012. First deliveries will be in June. I'm P2884 and I'm expecting November delivery, allowiing for building up production. Media coments have siezed on his statement that "over 6500" have been reserved and they have tied that to 2012 production, but I have not seen anyone at Tesla budge off 5000 in 2012.

I agree that those starting production in January/February are destined for the show rooms.

"Media coments have siezed on his statement that "over 6500" have been reserved and they have tied that to 2012 production, but I have not seen anyone at Tesla budge off 5000 in 2012."

Hi Jack,

Tesla Wows With Model S Rides, Factory Tour

Here's a fairly recent quote from Gilbert Passin, vice president of manufacturing, placing the number a little higher.

Tesla is looking at a release candidate – that's a car that's identical to or extremely close to the production version – by January or February, Passin said. "Our target delivery date for the first car to a customer is mid-2012. That means that we will probably fill up the production pipeline before that, of course, so that we can deliver the car by mid-2012…By year-end 2012, we should be producing between 5,500 and 6,000 cars delivered to customers." That number nearly matches the number of deposits Tesla has taken for the model.

Larry

Larry, Thanks. I read righr over that. Maybe I should think October?

Those with low reservation numbers may be called in the fall of 2012 but if they do not upgrade to larger battery packs, they may get pushed back to 2013. I hope this does not happen after waiting for years in line.

Larry,
A follow up. A Tesla rep at the Santana Row store yesterday implied the 5000 figure for 2012 was part of the under promise over deliver approach of Tesla and that I should expect delivery in late summer-early Fall. I'm P2884. As with so many things here, time will tell.

Tesla may not make much money or even lose money on the 160 mile version. It may also have problems with the 0-60 time draining the batteries too much. Either of these would count as technical difficulties.

According to Elon's third quarter report, he expects most of the reservations to be 230 mile versions with 300 and 160 splitting the balance of reservations about equally. Even so, I don't see these issues as unique to the Model S, nor how they would qualify as technical difficulties in the auto business. No money is made on ICE's without options, and 'pedal to the metal' pulls down MPG as well. I suppose something can be made of it, but it should be no surprise.

http://www.plugincars.com/elon-musk-cool-confidence-about-teslas-future-...
Big Expansion Plans

"Musk says the Model S “is looking very good. We’ve been very clear we’re committing to deliveries no later than July of next year.” A next-gen Roadster will be available “in three years or so,” and Tesla will offer a sneak peek of the crossover Model X (on the Model S platform) at the end of the year, followed by a major event early next year.

According to Musk, the Model S “will have vastly more interior and cargo space than the Fisker Karma, and it’s 20 to 30 percent lighter. It’s five-star crash-rated in every category, and it will be the safest car in the world.” Current plans are to produce 20,000 cars a year, but Musk says that’s based on only one shift at the former GM/Toyota factory in Fremont, California it bought for peanuts last year. “We could certainly double our rate of production pretty quickly,” Musk said. “We could go to two shifts with very little added expenditure.”

Tesla’s ultimate goal is to produce a half million cars a year. How long will it take? “Six years,” says Musk. “Seven at the very latest. We plan to use the whole factory.” That plant is five million square feet, and Tesla is using only a small corner of it to build the Model S. So Elon Musk can’t be said to lack confidence."

"According to Musk, the Model S “will have vastly more interior and cargo space than the Fisker Karma"

And the word "vastly" is probably not strong enough since the storage in a Karma is about the size of two golf bags, one on top of the other.

Re the Karma;
Al Gore bought one. What other dis-recommendation is needed?

Re the Karma;
Al Gore bought one. What other dis-recommendation is needed?

Look, you don't have to convince me that Tesla is superior to Karma and you don't even want to get me started on Gore, but I've changed my mentality towards Fisker. I used to have the mentality that it is just a waste of time when you can get a Tesla, but if we want this electric car revolution to take place, we need more manufacturers of electric cars to succeed (not to mention as taxpayers we should hope Fisker is successful to repay its Federal loan). Granted Fisker is a hybrid, but nonetheless Fisker is part of the electric revolution. Whereas a lot of manufacturers are showing off concept electric cars, Fisker is one of the few that actually has it in production. So far only Tesla, Nissan and Chevy (again if you count the Volt as an electric) can say that. I understand that in America the attitude is #1 or bust. No one ever remembers the loser in the Super Bowl. In reality though, 2nd place or even 3rd place is nothing to sneeze at especially when you are player in such a big industry.

People can bust on Fisker all they want...and to a certain extent I do too...but deep down, I want Fisker to succeed, even if I have no intention of buying a Karma.

I agree Jay. While I wouldn't buy a Karma for a number of reasons, anybody would have to admit that the car is definitely an attention getter. I equate it to the DeLorean. I would never want to own a DMC-12 because the internals are so crappy, but man is it a head turner!

The Karma has the advantage of not only being a head turner of the highest degree, but also quite a luxurious, if not sporty, drive. If I was someone like Leno, a Karma would definitely be in my garage.

Agreed, Jay and Mycroft, but we need cars like the Coda to succeed even more. As car-makers continue overturning nay-sayers with hard engineering facts, the skeptics will keep saying, "perhaps, but it's too expensive." The Karma builds the "too costly" image that the Roadster began; even the Model S is priced 2x above what most people will pay for a car. These high-end vehicles are the thin edge of the wedge, but for a truly successful revolution, the core markets (mid-price sedans and light trucks) will need to be addressed--if not by Tesla, then by someone. Probably many someones.

@JayK
"I understand that in America the attitude is #1 or bust."

That's an America thing?


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