with all the canceled orders where do we stand? what is our real number?
Who would like to know this
example P6997 1200 canceled orders Is my real Number P5797 ??
I can only dream skystream. I am P3270. With 1200 cancellations I might get my car in December! Even before the production reduction (say that ten time faster) I thought I would end up in January.
Technically if you do the math as some have there are a total of 4000 cancellations over the entire time. I think the 1200 are just from when Tesla called to lock in orders. We also don't know if those cancellations include deferrals. Heck I could get mine in NOV! NOT....:-)
Who says any of the 1200 cancellations are low numbers? Could be equally likely that the cancellations are in the 4000+ range, so no accelerated timeframe for those of us with lower numbers. Unfortunately we have no data so it is all just random guessing at this point (as are many of the threads on this forum!) :-)
I take my number P4235
Add Ss +1200
Subtract cxs -1200
Apply SWAG* -0000
Get Total P4235
And hope for December
(SWAG* = Scientific Wild Ass Guess)
its not just the res # but depends on battery and air suspension option. they are doing all three batteries with the air suspension first and then followed by non air suspension as far as i have been told.
The 1st 3 computers tasked with tracking the sequence number adjustments failed, with catastrophic CPU overheating -- and the fourth is showing signs of severe stress.
(S stands for Scientific and/or Speculative)
So are sig reservations an entirely different pool? In other words, is there a sig reservation #500 and a regular reservation #500?
Given that there is some thought that the Sunset red colour won't be available until ALL sigs have been delivered, does European/Asian/Australian production figure in to the various calculations, I wonder?
Europe is supposed to be getting their cars in the first quarter of next year and Australia, soon after that.
Here is a great topic for George Blankenship to deal with in a future blog (which i suggest he resumes on a weekly or even second weekly basis).
Yes. The 'regular reservations' are referred to hereabouts as P (Production) reservations. Disagreement continues about the interpretation of the SSL #s, as described in the Tally thread. They are counted separately also in the totals, though some continue to insist they are just duplicates. There are 244 of those, also.
Just to clarify, the numbers on this page: http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-reservation-tally are all separate sequences, giving the highest one in each sequence noted anywhere that michiganmodels has noted or been alerted to.
Maybe TM should send each of us a new reservation number each week or two that would better reflect where we stood in line.
that's what i am thinking maybe every 3 months. Or till we get thinks going waiting a year or more with no idea not good
Some interesting news from teslaguy over at the TMC forum on this subject
I don't know whether this link will post properly, so here's what he said, in three separate posts:
"Just got off the phone with a delivery experience rep ( I think that's what they're called) at hdq. and asked a lot of questions.
For example, I asked him to explain the production numbering scheme. He said that there are 1000 US sigs that are getting built/delivered first, then the numbering starts over with what they're calling the GP group which includes the "R" reservationists. So, for example I am P#1117. He said that essentially means I'm number 2117 in the build/deliver sequence. They are NOT building the Rs and then starting the count over at 1 again. Also, the build/deliver sequence numbering does not account for any cancellations or deferrals that have or might happen. He said they haven't collapsed the sequence numbers due to any cancels or defers. He told me that I should expect delivery sometime in Nov./Dec. but just can't be more specific at this time. They need to see how the ramp up goes over the next month. However, he did say that ramp up is continuing at a pretty good clip. He thinks they're running somewhere around 100 cars a week right now and are really counting on building at least 1000 cars each month for Nov. and Dec. They really want to have all sigs done by 1st half of Nov. Fingers crossed!!"
"Yes, when it comes to build/deliver, R's and Ps could see the same batching issues that Sigs, and SSLs have seen. We will all be delivered as cars are ready and trucks can be efficiently loaded for the trips. He said that US R/P production is set to begin as soon as US Sigs are all done."
"The rep told me that Canadian Sigs will be delivered later."
The number isn't as important as I'd like it to be given they batch orders. I'm 427, but bet they will probably make mine with other performance fully loaded white cars.
@KJR4235 I think your "real" number is even better (assuming lower is better) than you calculated.
Even if Tesla allows people to jump ahead in line by bumping up to a Sig, we're okay there because I'm assuming the maximum number of Sigs is fixed at 1200. If someone cancels a Sig reservation and then someone else makes a new Sig reservation, then in some cases, there's no difference to you. If the person who's making the new Sig reservation was a "P" with a lower number than yours, then you've actually moved up by one, so it's even better!
Now, even if they allow people to expand the Sig list and go over 1200 Sigs, that additional number is still likely to be small.
In addition, all current reservation holders can cancel their reservations, and they can defer their reservations, but only a few people, or maybe even no people can make a reservation that goes ahead of you.
So your "real" number is likely to only get better!
DouglasR, I'm quite surprised that Canadian Sig will come later... Does Tesla have an issue to sell the Model S in Canada? Did they explain why they changed what was said this summer about all the north america signature to be delivered prior to any general production car?
If you read that thread a little further, you will see that a lot of people think that last point about the Canadian Sigs is bad information. I have no knowledge of it myself. There was, however, one production car that got a delivery window, which no Canadian Sigs have yet reported.
I dunno where I read it, but I was under the impression that Canadian deliveries would start about six months after the US deliveries began.
I doubt if the model S is certified in Canada yet.
It's certified enough to be NAFTA taxed. -.-
Still PO'd about that, but towards parliament, not Tesla
P6997, just received my finalize email today Oct 3rd. So excited!
The R numbers *are* separate from the P numbers. I'm not trying to make a comment about whether or not they are interspersed. But there are R1-421 and P1-421 and they are not the same. (excepting cancellations, upgrades, and deferrals, of course)
I'm sorry I reported those comments from the TMC thread. It turns out that a number of the "facts" that the poster related (based on HIS conversation with a delivery specialist) have been disputed: the Canadian Sigs, the sequencing of the Rs, etc. Like the game of Rumor, I passed on information from someone who passed on information from someone who might not have known what he was talking about.
Your number is really more of a "guideline" than a "rule," as we are finding out that the cars are being batched and delivered out of sync with your S, P, or R number. There are S reservations that have gone out before SSL reservations and so forth. My S564 will be delivered after some S reservations in the 1200's!
Fret not about your number in sequence: you'll get your car near your MVPA month.
If I recall correctly (I don't know why I read those long legal documents because I never remember exactly what they say) when I reserved the document said the reservation number was not a place in line.
I would not expect Tesla to hold everyone else up because the grey leather provider ran out.
From an email with George B I learned there was a snafu where 20+ cars were placed way ahead of where they should have been in the production queue and 20+ had been placed way too far back. They've made adjustments and if we could weed out the "outliers" the rest of the sequencing should be pretty consistent.
Anyone else experience this:
Hi everyone, I've learned a lot from these forums and wanted to share what I've found to take care of my model S.
Here is a picture of all the items...
Thanks to the suggestion of Tharasix, and with the utmost respect to the most honorable @Volker.Berlin I give you ...
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