Forums

Join The Community
RegisterLogin

Why Would anyone willingly pay $10k for a 60kwh replacement battery?????

I heard something about an option to pre-pay for a 60 or 85 kwh battery at over $10k in order to be able to get a replacement at 8 years.

WHY would anyone pay for the current day retail price of a battery, when come years from now todays same price will get you probably something like over 180kwh, and 800 mile range. or on the other hand the 60kwh will be going for about 1/6 of what it costs today.

Its like as if 5 years ago you bought an Iphone 3g for $500, and paid another $500 then so you could get another Iphone 3G in 2013......even though that same $500 can get you an Iphone5 today, while an iphone 3g is probably worth about $40 bucks now.

10k is not the current day retail price, more like 40k.

because many folks believe real cost of battery is higher than that.

Its not like your iphone analogy at all. Its more like buying an iPhone 3G for $500, then paying $50 to recieve a new battery for it in 8 years. If it were like your analogy, then you would be paying full car price, only for just a new battery.

I thought iPhones have only increased in price since it came out...?

See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedge_(finance)

Does a 60 kwh battery in todays prices really cost about $40k?That would make it represent about 50% of the cars value?

Given all the other features of the car that seems a little high

I believe TM stopped the program and you can't prepay for the battery. They didn't want to take the future risk and with their follow on, they don't need the cash today.

To the OP it was something like insurance. Batteries could be more expensive or less expensive in the future. But with the plan, you would know for certain. I believe it's better to invest the money and hope for a cheaper battery pack in future dollars, but some people want to get it pinned down.

Tesla battery is not $40k for sure: http://www.technologyreview.com/news/516961/how-tesla-is-driving-electric-car-innovation/

"By most estimates, the battery for the Model S that I drove should cost between $42,500 and $55,250, or half the cost of the car. But Straubel indicated that it is already much lower. “They’re way less than half, actually,” he says. “Less than a quarter in most cases.” Straubel says more can be done to lower batter costs. He’s working with cell and materials suppliers to increase energy density more, and he’s changing the shape of the cells in ways that make manufacturing them easier."

I believe Straubel is referring to the cost to Tesla there, they are believed to be paying ~$400/Kwh or around $24,000 for the 60Kwh pack, once you add a retail margin to that $30-40,000 is right on the money. So in answer to the OP no one would pay todays retail to get a battery in 8 years, what they are buying is a futures option to buy at substantially lower than todays retail, the $64,000 question is will it be substantially lower (or higher) than a battery's cost in 2020.

I have to believe Tesla has the best information available to estimate battery cost in 8 years and have (had) priced that option such that they would not lose money (not including 8 years of interest on $10K), so I would expect the battery cost to be less than $10K by then. A moot point now.

Even with all the information in the world battery prices in 8 years is largely speculative. Hell even guessing what chemistry they will be using in ten years is speculative.

Tesla is clear that if you have 60Kw you can not upgrade to 85Kw. Perhaps aftermarket batteries in 10 years.

@evmd
I talked to my tesla rep about that, because to me it makes logical sense that one could theoretically swap a battery out for a better one in the future. The whole car is pretty much modular.

Thats what their battery pack swap in 90 seconds demo was all about.

So why can't I just replace my current day 60kwh to pay for a 85kwh, or even 130kwh battery years in the future when they become available and/or economical??

He basically told me that it would not make 'business sense' for tesla to offer that. So its definitely possible, but Tesla won't allow it.....yet.

I think once competition picks up, hey might soften their stance

The option was offered so people who worry about battery replacement cost know what is the most the need to pay (if they buy the option) should their battery fails after warranty expires. I don't think many took the offer. I'm not even sure if the option is still available. That concern is pretty much non-existent now even for the detractors.

@evmd

While I was at the factory I talked to a representative that said that upgrading from 60kwh to 85kwh makes business sense especially bcuz mine car will be paid off next year and they are working on how it would work logistically.

I also heard the packs can be repaired or rebuilt. There are severals modules inside of each battery pack. If one of the modules failure then just that module can be replaced. Since the battery can be removed in less then a minute I'm sure a repair can be performed in say a few hours or less. I'm guessing a repair could cost $1K-$2k. This only makes sense from an environmental perspective. Think of the impact if the battery had to be replaced every 5-10 years. Here's what I think. Always use the 20-80% rule. Don't let the battery run down below 20% or charge over 80%. Avoid supercharging. Batteries in general don't like to be fast charged. Follow this and IMO you pack should last at least 10+ years with less then a 30% reduction in capacity. Plus think about this...Are you really going to have the car in 10 years? I'll bet 50% of us here are going to trade up within 5 yrs. I know in 3 yrs I'm intend on buying the Model X and I'll get a Model E. Anyone agree?

No. Babying the battery is totally unnecessary. A test engineer said they had some models out in the sticks and were using a big generator truck to SC them a couple of times a day, and couldn't even detect slight degradation over weeks or months. He was awestruck at how robust they were.


X Deutschland Site Besuchen