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X is coming soon !

Talking with Tesla Service this week and an insider I know from work. The factory will shut down for 2 weeks soon while 1-2 assembly lines are added 1 to double S production the other to build Model X. Much of the parts will be fabricated in Lathrop. According to my source they are making parts already.

X is coming soon!

Gudt. That sound you hear is all of Norway rejoicing. ;-)

Hope you are right. What is the time frame? Doubt we will see the first Sigs until LATE Q4 2014 or Q1 2015. Production run late Q1 2015 at best.

I might trust your insider info but the service centers generally are sometimes the last to know. Company policy appears to be to keep things close to the vest. They do not like to leak info out to Galleries (sales) or Service.

Lathrop is rumored to be finalizing Beta X away from main factory and on the QT.

I thought the shutdown was to reconfigure the line to build right hand drive S's.

If you listen to the Q1 2014 Conference call from early May, I believe Elon talks about a July (or maybe just summer) shut down of the line to add the second line that will help increase S production for now and X production when the time comes.

He also talks a bit about the expected time frame for the X.

Anyway, you can listen for yourself...

http://ir.teslamotors.com/events.cfm

Or read it here...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2201363-tesla-motors-tsla-ceo-elon-musk-...

Here's a list of all quarterly reports and call transcripts. With links even!

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/17786-List-of-all-TSLA-qua...

Cheers!
-Ian T. (formerly goneskiian)

X is behind schedule in order to spool robots to fill China's insatiable appetite for the S. Depends on your feelings/what you consider soon for the X. Late 2015.

No matter how you look at it, all speculation aside, it will be June very soon. That means that some sort of production/parts facility must be in place in the next 5 months or less in order the have production prototypes ready before the end of the year. My guess is that there will be extensive testing before we see any official announcements

The interesting thing is the X does not have to be redesigned total from scratch it will inherit much from what Tesla has learned from Model S. It is about 12" taller and 6" longer than S but has many unique features like the doors that Tesla will have to work out.

in Tesla terms soon regularly means half a year :-)
so X could come on time after all...

In the US it is required by law to have car insurance, and if a vehicle is financed, it has to be insured with full coverage.

One of the biggest impediments to the X coming out 'soon' is the popularity and gross margins that the model S is producing. Elon indicated that he wanted 2014 to be the year he tested the demand limits for the model S. TM can't make the S fast enough to even test demand in 2014. On top of that as they scale up production on the S the gross margins increase.

While they are production constrained there is minimal pressure to bring out the X. We will see it in production late this year or early next year. I am convinced we would have seen it sooner if the S had not been so successful.

AIMc - Spot on. Elon/Telsa are not so much interested in the X as they are Gen !!! However they do need cash to get their and the X will help with that. Nice problem to Tesla to have and as much as I would like to get the X, I'm content to wait if it helps move Gen !!! forward faster.

Put another way, it is a lot more important that my children and my grandchildren drive an EV than me.

Running the Numbers Through a Crossover...

Currently in the United States of America:

  • The Porsche Panamera sells roughly 400-500 units per month.
    The Porsche Cayenne typically sells 1200-1800 per month.
  • The BMW 7-Series sells 600-700 units per month.
    The BMW X5 sells between 2800 and 4400 per month.
  • The AUDI A8 currently sells 350-480 units per month.
    The AUDI Q7 moves 1200-1600 cars through dealerships per month.

Tesla Motors is plenty happy with the demand for the Tesla Model S. That is certainly true. But they also know that in this market segment, the Crossovers all routinely outsell their Sedan counterparts by a bare minimum of 3:1.

So if they tell you they aren't selling the Tesla Model X yet because it's not ready, that is exactly the reason why it isn't available. Because it is very likely that until the Generation III vehicles arrive, the Model X will be the best selling car in the Tesla lineup, hands down. Count on it, because Tesla surely will.

Red SAge: Not saying the ONLY reason that X is not out yet is that
S is so successful and producing high revenue with each sale. But I am saying it certainly is one reason, IMO, that they don't have to push it out fast and can take their time perfecting it.

The X will be just as big a 'hit' if they bring it out in 12 months versus 6 months. During any time lag they are production constrained and can sell as many Ss as they want at a gross margin that is higher initially than the X. While many of the parts are interchangeable there will be some parts that are different. Each Service Center will have to stock those extra parts and small amount of retraining sales and service staff about the X.

I would like my X tomorrow but 'jjs' upstream put it very well. The Gen III is the key to EV adoption worldwide. The roadster, S and X are just stopover points on the way to that final destination.

They have 13000 deposits for the X. That's an income stream just waiting to happen. it would be poor business not to roll out the X ASAP. Poor business sense is not one of Musk's traits :-)

barrykmd: Unfortunately we will never know. Would be an interesting MBA course study, retrospectively, of course.

Victims of Success...

I've posted before that I believe the Tesla Model X will be a runaway success. Tesla Motors has a plan by which they will increase their production capacity very soon. Tesla has a plan to bring in more batteries faster. But just as they were surprised by the immediate success and worldwide acceptance of the Tesla Model S, they may be overwhelmed, for a short time, by the deluge of demand for the Model X.

I just want to make sure it is fully stated that Tesla has not purposely delayed the Model X in any way. I agree it is better stated that due to the success of the Model S thus far, Tesla is not constrained by the need for immediate cash garnered from sales of an expanded product line. Yes, this allows Tesla the luxury of being absolute perfectionists, who wish to get a '125 out of 100' rating from Consumer Reports when they review the Model X.

I also want everyone to realize that eventually, Tesla may be selling around 12,500 of the Model X -- per month -- for years on end. And that will only be the US sales. Effectively, while not really being 'affordable', the Model X will still qualify as a mass-market vehicle due to sheer sales volume.

So, yes... That Gigafactory is going to be needed a lot sooner than anyone expects. And so will Tesla's second one. Both will have to be online by 2020.

Red Sage - Indeed, victims of success. Agreed.

I don't believe AIMc was stating or inferring it was intentional, i.e. planned and premeditated. It simply is the current situation and the safest way to ensure Gen III. Quite frankly if Tesla would NEVER produce the X and instead move to successful development/sales of Gen III it would certainly have a lot of very unhappy customers, but in relation to the mission, that is to help usher in a new paradigm of personal transportation, it would be of no importance.

They wont' do that. The X will come. It will be great. But in the grand scheme of things it is not important.

I also want everyone to realize that eventually, Tesla may be selling around 12,500 of the Model X -- per month -- for years on end.

I am all for Tesla but these numbers are unrealistic big time. The MX will likely be a $120k car with the stuff people want. So it is definitely not a "mass market vehicle".

Even if they replace all of the Cayennes, M5, Q5 and Q7 it would be closer to 6k/mth and that is at 100% replacement.. which is unlikely initially. Also most of the quoted cars are "cheeper" than the MX will be.

Also without giga factory Tesla is hard pressed to make 1000 cars a week of any type. So even if there was a market for 10k+ units per month it would not happen now.

It would be worth looking up how many $100k+ SUV are sold per month and assume that 30% get substituted initially.

I think Tesla is ready most people are not yet.

First paragraph is a quote from Red Sage further up.. my attempt at quoting did not work !

Red Sage: (thanks JJS); Yes, I am not saying TM is deliberately delaying the X. I am saying they are in a great position to make sure it is absolutely perfect before launching production because of the overwhelming success of the S, with the high gross margins it now produces. They are battery constrained: Great dilemma they have: 16,000 reservations for the X and growing AND we can't make model Ss fast enough to supply global demand.

This decision is WAY above my pay grade: Do we delay production of the model X until it is perfect while collecting hefty gross margins on the S or push out a great X (not a perfect one) quickly that will probably (opinion) not have the type of margins that the S has and will diminish S sales (because it competes with the S for batteries)?

If the ultimate goal is to get a gigafactory going so I they can produce an affordable gen III, then make as much profit as you can
to plow back into the company by selling as many Ss as you can.

This is a very interesting discussion, even though without much meaning with respect to actual Tesla developments. They will be what Lusk and Co. Feel is best for the company and its customers, I believe.

Just to add a slightly different slant to the discussion, the Model X doesn't just compete with crossovers. It will also siphon off some of the SUV and minivan markets.

I am a former owner of a Lexus LX 470. We called it the " big mamu". It was the best snow car I ever drove but was an incredible gas hog, very slow and cumbersome. Third row seats were not very practical. I now own a Honda Odyssey. It is a successfully evolved minivan. The third row of seats is functional and folds away beautifully. It costs much less than a Model X and gets about 21 mpg. I can afford a Model X. I wrote a letter to Lexus/Toyota telling them that, if they produced a luxury minivan with a hybrid power plant, I would dump the Honda in a heartbeat. They didn't reply. That was before I found out about the Model X.

I am now number 9,378 in line...

My point. There is a broader market for the Model X than just luxury crossovers. It will be a very important addition to Tesla's product portfolio for years to come, even with the crazy doors.

As long as TM is production-constrained, it matters little which car they sell. They'll get around to the X when they have the capacity to supply a reasonable part of the demand, PLUS keep MS deliveries relatively timely.

+1 Brian H

AIMc: Thanks for the clarification!

georgehawley & Brian H: Absolute agreement on those points!

toby_wan_kenoby: Yes, I understand that it seems like a big number, but really... It isn't. 12,500 vehicles per month only works out to 150,000 per year. Keep in mind, I'm talking total worldwide production, not US Sales. If we look at that instead, in 2013 eight of the top ten SUVs or crossovers sold over 150,000 in the US alone. 23 of the top 25 sold 75,000 or more. None of the three I mentioned above were among the top 25.

I do not expect the Tesla Model X to have that as an annual output immediately, but instead, eventually. That will be for the reasons that both George and Brian stated: 1) That people will go upscale to get it; and 2) It will take a while before batteries are available to manage that level of production.

You may wonder where I get my numbers... It's basically the same as any others on this forum: a '[WHISKEY ALPHA] Guess'! It comes from the fact I've noticed other crossovers in the price range tend to outsell their sedan counterparts by at least 3:1, as a conservative measure. I believe that the Tesla Model S will be artificially limited to a 50,000 per year maximum annual production. Again, given the batteries, Tesla could sell 300,000 of them a year. But that is not the goal.

Anyway, remember that 3:1 ratio? Three times 50,000 comes to 150,000. I expect that in 2015 Tesla will produce around 40,000-50,000 of the Model S and 60,000-75,000 of the Model X. In 2016, the Model X will move at least 75,000 and possibly as many as 100,000. Once again, only the lack of availability of batteries will prevent those numbers from going much higher. People really like driving crossovers and SUVs.

By the time, or rather until, the Generation III vehicles arrive, the Model X will be the best selling Tesla Motors product on wheels. Also note in my examples above, I only chose three of literally dozens of crossovers and small SUVs that are on the US market. I expect half of Model X production to be dedicated to US sales. That works out to roughly 3,125 of them sold per month here, well before the debut of GIII, and easily within the range to challenge the BMW X5 and its siblings.

Here's the new "feminized" MX:http://inhabitat.com/tesla-has-tweaked-the-model-x-to-make-it-look-better-and-appeal-to-women/


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