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With your number P#6997( my #) when do we think we will get our car?

1. The size of the battery?
2. Options
3. under promise over deliver quote
4. 5000 cars made in 2012

Talked with tesla yesterday and they say I should see my car by December of 2012.I will believe it when I see

Yeah, I wouldn't hold my breath for P6997 being delivered by December 2012. If it is, that would be fantastic because it would mean that I would get mine a month or so before hand! ;-)

Yes, I've thought all along that the production numbers for 2012 were likely to be heavily under-promised, in order to leave slack for the unexpected, and to permit "tuning".

PLUS -- it's an "easy" way to make a lot of folks very happy by producing 7,000-8,000+ (my prediction). 1,000 Sigs + 7,000 Ps would about match the Dec 2012 promise to you.

Tesla's statement to skystream is intriguing. It could mean several things:

  • Tesla expects to start deliveries sooner than July 31, and so they can exceed 5,000 cars in 2012.
  • Tesla expects to ramp up production faster than previously anticipated, and so they can exceed 5,000 cars in 2012.
  • The reservation drop rate has been startlingly high.

Of course, the real answer could be some combination of the above.

If the target delivery date really is 2012 for P6997, then your choice of battery may have a big impact on the actual delivery date.

yes the Battery was the big thing. He also said that they will manufacturer all three cars in 1000 lots after the first 3000 cars are made. This was to keep all people happy.

Last year official Tesla sources were estimating between 5,500 and 6,000 in 2012. Lately official Tesla sources have been saying 5,000. As much as I would love to believe it, I share the original poster's skepticism and find it rather unlikely that an unnamed Tesla source would now be providing a credible estimate of over 8,000 (7,000 prod + 1,000 US sigs + 200 Canadian sigs). That's a 60% increase over the current official estimate.

These current official estimates of 5,000 come at a time when Elon has mentioned that so far there has been some difficulty in satisfying all conditions in the crash testing. In other words, crash testing hasn't been a "slam dunk" so it’s entirely possible that the original slack built into the schedule is indeed being used to achieve perfect across-the-board crash test results.

Nevertheless, I’m still hoping that Tesla will over-deliver by achieving the original estimates of 5,500 to 6,000, but 8,000 seems too much of a stretch.

Larry

The rep I spoke to after placing my reservation (P# 6275) said that any date at this point would be complete speculation, but that February 2013 is a reasonable expectation. He said that estimations on deliveries would become more and more accurate as the production time for the customer's vehicle gets closer (ie come this fall, they would be more sure of an answer than when I reserved in December, and then in early winter, it should be a pretty good estimate).

I don't know if I'd have to contact my rep again to get estimate updates, but I would assume so. I don't plan on doing that. Instead I plan on just being patient and watching these forums to see what numbers are being called. We'll probably get a pretty good idea of the rate of production when we get reports here and on TMC of people signing purchase contracts, having their options finalized for their vehicles, and actually taking delivery. Plus I assume they'd contact me months before I take delivery in order to find out what options I desire on my vehicle. They should have a pretty good estimate of delivery at that point.

February 2013 for P6275 sounds reasonable; as I noted above, I thought March 2013 for P6997 was about right.

The "3,000 then batches of 1,000" has my head spinning. We had generally been assuming that buying a bigger battery meant earlier delivery. That may not be true under this production plan:

The first 3,000 are definitely 85kWh cars, as the run includes the Signatures (about 1,250, counting Canada and Friends&Family, leaving about 1,750 GP cars). Suppose you're P2500 and want an 85kWh pack; depending on what other general reservation holders want, you may not get one of the first 3,000 run. If the next 1,000 produced are 60kWh packs, you'll need to wait until next time Tesla does an 85kWh run. If you had opted for the 60kWh, however, you might get a car out of that second batch (i.e., the first batch of 1,000).

Or to see it a different way, suppose that of all the North American reservations, only 1,000 people want 40kWh packs. When the 1,000 40kWh vehicles come off the line, all pending 40kWh orders will ship, leapfrogging lower-numbered reservations for higher kWh cars.

I'm suddenly very glad the my number is P1635, as I think that guarantees me one of the first 3,000 (taking into account ~1,250 Sigs and F&F vehicles).

My guess is you've got it backwards. The larger batteries will, in the first few thousand, raise your priority. On the other hand, for example, if the 3000-4000 range was almost all 85kWh, they wouldn't toss in a few hundred smaller batteries from further back on the list to ensure a good mix.

As I am a UK based SIG buyer, winder when I get it (right hand drive).
Will it be part of the 1000 SIG's this year, but then right hand drive??

I played with the numbers a bit, and it looks like this to me:
The 2013 rate of 20K requires >16000/mo.
Assuming they can actually ramp up to about that by Oct 2012, starting with ~1,000 in July and then escalating, the total could be >8,000 for 2012. That would then make skystream's hopes come true.

Backing down to April for first production, instead of July, then starting at 500/mo, and increasing the rate by just 100/mo thru September, then 200/mo for the last 3 months, gets you to 8,700 total.

YNMV

;)

But since no one has been contacted so far (?) to finalize options '3 mo. in advance of production', I guess June is now the first month we can now expect actual customer cars to begin assembly. ;(

vouteb, the 1000 SIGs this year are US only. Deliveries to Canada will start around the same time, with 300 SIGs IIRC. Other markets will not be served before 2013 (late 2012 the earliest), each market starting with a limited number of SIGs (it is still unclear -- if not undetermined -- if there is a SIG queue for each European country, or one shared among entire Europe, and how many units that queue(s) hold(s)).

the Canadian sigs won't start until they have achieved homologation for the Canadian market and the last word we have heard is that will be approx. 3 months following start of US production.

and there will be only 200 sigs for Canada ...

::grumble grumble missing edit support grumble::

Volker

Vielen Dank, makes sense

Morgan Stanley apparently doesn't believe Tesla's delivery volume estimates for 2012.

Morgan Stanley Moderately Tweaks Tesla Motors Earnings Model

In a research report published earlier today, Morgan Stanley has adopted virtually all of Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ: TSLA) 2012 guidance, except for the Model S delivery volume, where Morgan Stanley remains at 2,000 units.

Larry

I'm assuming PT means price target. What happens to the 44 PT if they have underestimated Tesla's first year production?

That would be bad news. Only 2,000 this year throws everyone 2-3 months back. We waited this long, what's another 3 months.... Those guys at Morgan aren't idiots, they changed the number for a reason. In any event, it certainly throws any of the optimistic predictiosn above (8,000 this year) into great doubt.

Talked to my rep yesterday. He was pretty confident that 4000 would be delivered this year (by Dec 31st). Forgot to clarify though if that was with or without Sigs.

@harryjsommer
I wouldn't worry too much. The Tesla people I have talked to are speaking in increasingly optimistic terms with regards to the production timeline/delivery dates.

They (Morgan Stanley) are analyzing the market and Tesla's position. They take a lot into consideration like what it takes to start up a new production line for a (relatively) new car manufacturer. I am sure they are anticipating issues with the line like quality problems as part of their analysis.

However, they are also an outside party who probably is not aware of inner goings on at Tesla. Only Tesla themselves have a better grasp on that. Not all companies are able to keep to their deadlines. Especially ones of this magnitude. I think that's why they wrote their report as they did.

We have seen that Tesla likes to under promise and over deliver. I think their production estimates were playing to the safe side and since Tesla has the information on their own progress that Morgan Stanley doesn't, I am inclined to believe they will hit their numbers. I guess we'll see when the end of this year rolls around.

I'm P# 3133 and by demanding only a 40kW battery I'm thinking I might have the option of going metallic red (early 2013).

Maybe in 2013, with an Obama re-election, and a few tea-party obstructionists gone we'll get that $10k electric rebate, too!

TM, charge I can believe in.

With my P#5747, I was told to expect Feb 2013 delivery by the last TM rep I spoke to, regardless of my battery size.

+1 mwu

@Peak Oil bruin: I don't want to hijack this thread onto politics, but regardless of who wins the White House, it's extremely likely that the GOP will hold both chambers of Congress. Ergo, the president will have a tough audience for EV subsidies.

mwu | February 28, 2012
...
We have seen that Tesla likes to under promise and over deliver. I think their production estimates were playing to the safe side and since Tesla has the information on their own progress that Morgan Stanley doesn't, I am inclined to believe they will hit their numbers. I guess we'll see when the end of this year rolls around.

I think we'll know a lot sooner than that if the M-S # is low! I suspect TM will have delivered >2,000 by mid-September, and it will be clear long before then how fast the line is running/accelerating.

In fact, with the line beginning to work months before deliveries begin, I think we'll have indicators well before July. That price target could be exceeded by early to mid-summer. Helped along by heavy short covering by M-S clients. ;)

I am expecting to get a ETA when I sign my contract. That will be a good enough indicator for me.
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